Are we in a bear market?

[clowboy]

Interested to see who thinks we are in the beginning of a bear market.

Myself I think we are, although it may not last that long, time will tell I guess.

 

[Lucky_Country]

When does a correction become a bear market ?
Personally I think its a serious correction with still abit further too go.
Bear market no China and India will save us there.

 

[Gundini]

I posted this chart on another thread. I won't call it yet, but there are many signs to suggest all is not that rosy! Start with this S&P 500 chart. Can't find anything bullish about that....

 

[ithatheekret]

I can't vote on the way the question has been put .

I believe we haven't got out of the last bear market , and put it forward that we have just been through an extended bounce , matched by attempts to expand the cycle . This means I believe the last run that surpassed 6500 was a bull trap and had called for friends to sell into the market .

Including one who CMC must hate by now ........ , he's very short the banks and is just in covering motions .

 

[theasxgorilla]

I believe we haven't got out of the last bear market , and put it forward that we have just been through an extended bounce , matched by attempts to expand the cycle . This means I believe the last run that surpassed 6500 was a bull trap and had called for friends to sell into the market .

How do you define a bear market?? If you think that the period you describe is a bear market, with all the ongoing opportunities that have been available, I would say that if this is the beginning of a bear market then "you ain't seen nothin' yet!". Then again, I don't think this is the beginning of 'the big one'.

 

[treefrog]

Interested to see who thinks we are in the beginning of a bear market.

Myself I think we are, although it may not last that long, time will tell I guess.

I think that sounds fairly decisive but then it may not be very decisive if at all: maybe it is somewhat conditional - maybe

 

[vishalt]

Need more time to see

 

[noirua]

Bear markets are said to run for a minimum of 18 months and an average of 3 years.

One of the worse bear markets was 1973-1976 and the ASX 200 would need to fall to around 2,300 to 2,600 to get near it. However, gold shares doubled in value during that time.
In the 1987 crash gold shares crashed as well.

This time we have low interest rates, as in 1973, and also a high oil price, albeit was more on the rise in 1973 and today it may have peaked. There is the China factor, although there was the Japan factor in 1973.

In 1987 interest rates were very high and inflation.

So this time round it will be interesting to see if the USA will reduce interest rates to prevent a slump and to hell with the inflation factor.
The UK has a 2% inflation target and if they retain it then recession beckons. More likely they will reduce interest rates and also hope the strong Euro will reduce imports.
What will happen to China on the morning after the Olympics, a slump, a fair chance of that or at least a slowdown.
Australia is looking good, as long as that exchange rate is held down - no more interest rate rises please. Coal exports and oil should remain strong but other metals may drop in value.

It looks like a wait and see market with great opportunities and elephant traps waiting for the unwary or over invested forced or panicked sellers.

 

[BBand]

Just looking at the XJO price chart:

Daily chart: just under the 61.8% fib. retracements level

Weekly chart: Sitting on the uptrend trendline

Next week ?

 

[noirua]

Just looking at the XJO price chart:

Daily chart: just under the 61.8% fib. retracements level

Weekly chart: Sitting on the uptrend trendline

Next week ?

YES! With the Dow down over 250 points on Friday night a further slide awaits. As long as you're in good health that's all that matters, so Grandma said.

 

[tech/a]

There are many takes on "When".
Here are a few.
One thing is for sure that its currently (XJO) in a corrective phase.Return of the bear in my own view will see these recent highs remain unchallenged for some time.

 

[skint]

There are many takes on "When".
Here are a few.
One thing is for sure that its currently (XJO) in a corrective phase.Return of the bear in my own view will see these recent highs remain unchallenged for some time.

Hi Tech, I'm more of a fundamental trader, but do pick up useful snippets from chartists such as yourself. I was wondering whether your stock selection, as well as entry and exit point decisions are different in a bear market. Alternatively do you you apply the same principles in the same way as in a bull market?

 

[treefrog]

Hi Tech, I'm more of a fundamental trader, but do pick up useful snippets from chartists such as yourself. I was wondering whether your stock selection, as well as entry and exit point decisions are different in a bear market. Alternatively do you you apply the same principles in the same way as in a bull market?

sure that tech will give u a better answer but chart traders fundamental rule is never trade against the trend - just pick pullbacks to optimise entry

of course timescale determines which way the trend is going

eg weekly can be up but day and intraday down or any combo really such as all 3 up - just stick to the trend for the timeframe being traded

and of course trade both long and short (some trade sideways as well)

 

[nizar]

I posted this chart on another thread. I won't call it yet, but there are many signs to suggest all is not that rosy! Start with this S&P 500 chart. Can't find anything bullish about that....

The price action currently looks very similar to the year 2000.

 

[tech/a]

Its pretty common knowledge that I personally sold all my long term portfolio's back in July.At the time got a heap of flack,IE that I wasnt following my trading system (Which is still running live as an education model---I'm interested in how it will fair going forward myself).

Anyway personally.
I've shortened time frame.
I now trade (Only recently as I've just opened a CFD account) short as well as long.
I've decreased my risk on portfolio to 1% instead of the usually accepted 2%
I have a number of entry methods( Mainly pattern and Price and volume set ups) and always set a target for exit,Elliot or Pattern measurement.

Result so far (majority has been long trading until last week) has been mixed. Profits are far less than normal due to far less being in the market than I normally trade on long term portfolio's.---20% of available trading capital.

To me this is a period of survival and if I can minimise exposure and catch a profit from time to time then I'm happy.
I'm not breaking records finding it as difficult as everyone else.But not eating baked beans or attending Traders anonymous!

 

[skint]

Thanks for the responses, Treefrog and Tech. Tech, I also took all my money off the table 5 months ago. Missed the dips in August and the more recent one, but also the rally in between. I've got my eyes on some gold stocks with cashflow and additional projects, but I'll probably wait a bit to enter. Whenever I do re-enter, I'll probably avoid high places and sharp objects for some time just in case.
P.S. When I do venture back in, my exposure will be significantly lower than in the "good'ol'days" of the boom. Rather take lower profits for a while than wind up losing a motza in a more serious downturn.

 

[treefrog]

ew Poll Results: Are we in the beginning of a bear market?
Yes 22 50.00%
No 22 50.00%
Voters: 44. You have already voted on this poll

that about sums it up and reflects (from an amfibian viewpoint) where the market is exactly

at the crossroads!!

4+ year uptrend can continue or the market move lower in which case the run will have ended - it hasn't yet

 

[Porper]

For traders we are probaby in a bear market, for investors probably not.

This is the DOW chart, from 1988 to 2000 we were in a raging Bull market, however since then we have hardly gone up which to me would suggest that we are not going to get a large correction.

The recent rise also seems to be achieved within just a few stocks, giving the impression that all is well, a lot of the speculative and even mid cap stocks have been slayed.

I agree with a few comments above in that it is exceptionally difficult to make money in this market.Survival is paramount in this difficult time until we get a direction, it seems we are very undecided.

 

[BBand]

For those who trade long - all is not gloom and doom !

In a strong bull market, there are always some stocks that will be in a downtrend.
The same will apply if the overal market goes into a downtrend i.e there will always be some stocks worth trading long.

Also remember that all our trades in the bull market have not been winners - so for that type trade, just reverse your tactics and all will be well (JUST JOKING !!)

Personally, I agree with TECH regarding reducing your $ commitment to the market, and be very wary of long term trades.

My philosophy just now, is that as soon as I enter a trade, I start looking for an exit - don't wait for the stop to be hit. I use the stop as a last line of defence.

This is probably the time for hit and run tactics - don't be greedy

The above is just my opinion (which being a discrectionary trader can change very quickly depending on my interpretation of the charts.)

Trade well
Peter

 

[numbercruncher]

US recession 'could hurt Aust resources sector'
Posted 3 hours 50 minutes ago

A leading economic analyst says Australia's strong resources sector could suffer if the United States economy slides into recession.

Economists say data to be released this week including US retail sales, housing starts and business inventories, may see the Dow Jones Index dragged even lower.

Craig James from Commonwealth Securities says the slowdown in the United States will have a follow-on effect for Australian shares, particularly the resources sector.

"If the US economy slows and there's less spending by consumers and businesses, that means there's less demand for say Chinese manufactured goods," he said.

"If the Chinese economy sees less demand that means less resource demand from China for Australia."

The New York Stock Exchange plummeted almost 2 per cent on Friday.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/01/14/2137660.htm?section=business