April DDD

[divs4ever]

View attachment 175781

I'm surprised by this also.
Are these the traders who missed the run up and now buying the dip? If so, then a bear rally reversal will wipe them out.

I'm unaware of the current "meme" stocks or even if there are any atm.

there are some juicy margins for the surviving retailers , but debt is the key

remember the game is risk v. reward plenty of risk , but can you find the ones that reward you for taking the risk

now Aussie retailers still have a theft ( inventory shrinkage ) problem , but not at the insane level it is in some high profile areas , the extra damage might come from insurers recouping losses with other customers

 

[ducati916]

the only out i can see , is the West ( G7/NATO ) start a major war , flood the market with 'war bonds' and enact emergency measure .. and hope to win so they can ransack the vanquished ( like the Soviets did on the way to Berlin )

that will be extremely painful to the plebs , but the upper class has some chance of surviving( and flourishing )

Mr divs,

A major war is out of the question:



And remember Reagan's 'Star Wars' ploy...



The US (as per Ferguson) cannot spend more on interest payments on the debt than on the military and remain the #1.

They will, as every government, dictator and King throughout history, simply inflate.

They may, as Yellen is already doing (rumour) do a big chunk in one go and devalue the USD against gold. If they are placing a Treasury Put on gold, +/- $2400, it makes you wonder if they actually have the claimed 8000 tonnes. No one has seen it since the 1960's.

Re. @peter2

The return of the retail trader, a worry. So often they get dragged into market tops (as you say) only to lose their shirt in a bust.

If we are to be long equities into this secular inflation: Energy and commodities are the mainstay of the portfolio. Possibly the 'right' industrials will also work out.

I would be either out of or short financials. Tech. I have no opinion on.

News and financial news:



Probably not a huge shock to those actively involved in markets/macro.

The Fed is wrong again:



With the debt increasing $1T every 100 days and accelerating, the Fed's higher for longer is adding to that problem.

The Fed needs to cut to ZIRP (again) to allow high inflation to reduce the debt. Only once it is back to 60% of GDP can the US again manage the debt.

Of course that totally screws us the public (again) as inflation will back into 30% to 40% region in reality. Even on the Fed's tortured data it will be back into double digits, +/- 15% to 20%.

When the recession does hit, deficits will blow out even higher.

The Treasury will release the QRA in about 2 weeks. Yellen (may have to) shift issuance back to the short end or blow up the Treasury market (again). Of course this just adds to the problem while rates are where they are, possibly down the road not a bad thing, at least rates will be lower as they roll off for refinancing.

The huge issue atm is the Yen.

It is going to cause real problems if it is not sorted out pretty sharpish.

jog on
duc

 

[divs4ever]

A major war is out of the question:

you are arguing like a rational person

however, are our current crop of leaders rational ( or even sensible )

would they let their nation collapse while they appear to be in charge ( and to blame ) , i think not

remember WW2 started when many nations were starting to claw their way out of a Great Depression ( and hyperinflation , in the case of Germany )

now of course aliens ( from outer space ) could always invade , but that occurrence is hard to predict , and plan to exploit

whatever happens i see the masses ( and middle-class ) getting hit in the pocket-book , maybe for hundreds of years ( their great great grand-children )

 

[divs4ever]

Raytheon may be unable to decouple , but an irate China may make it so anyway ( it can always sell elsewhere if it needs to )

so the West has to resort to low tech solutions ( and cancels lucrative contracts ) ( or abandons plans for a war with Russia/China )

it would be interesting to see how the Military-Industrial Complex deals with shortages in rare materials

after all, firearms have been around for over 300 years , aircraft for 200 years and boats for 2000 years , getting to the conflict is less of an issue than winning the conflict ( or raising money to fund your side of the conflict )

 

[ducati916]

Full: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopoliti...ry-developing-space-assets-breathtaking-speed

jog on
duc

 

[divs4ever]

View attachment 175812

Full: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopoliti...ry-developing-space-assets-breathtaking-speed

jog on
duc

and will probably have a functional re-supply base on the Moon before long ( if it hasn't already )

the plan was to have the base set up before sending humans , with most of the tasks done by automation/robots

how this will be done ( in detail ) i have not seen reported , but China often unveils the finished project , rather than years of progress reports and promises .

since they were able to create a functional space station , in 3 parts remotely in Earth orbit , maybe they can do similar but landing it 'softly' on the Moon ( from the Moon's orbit )

 

[ducati916]

So the Yen:

Full: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/f...ddenly-crashes-april-1990-lows-against-dollar



Which is correct:



The USD/Yen is tied to the 10yr.

As pointed out, the Japanese have a huge supply of US assets that they can sell. Not that long ago, they unexpectedly (when USD was 106+) sold $30B in UST and the market imploded.

A weak Yen is very dangerous to the UST market.

jog on
duc

 

[divs4ever]

can the BoJ save ( prop up ) the Yen without selling UST

i assume they also have smaller holdings in other sovereign bonds , and selling those might be equally dangerous to other trading partners ( say the UK or EU )

we already see China reducing their UST assets ( and presumably assets in other NATO partners )

who will step in to buy those bonds ( and any new bonds created to fund the spirally debt )

you have China the unwilling , and Japan the unable , and nobody seems to be selling to India , that is a lot of buyer resistance

 

[divs4ever]

​

New Bombshell Evidence Emerges: Was Trump Set Up In Classified Docs Saga?​

New Bombshell Evidence Emerges: Was Trump Set Up In Classified Docs Saga? | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

now what IF ... RFK is elected President

he has plenty of personal reasons to purge the FBI/CIA ( and others )

is this the perfect excuse

 

[ducati916]

you are arguing like a rational person

however, are our current crop of leaders rational ( or even sensible )

would they let their nation collapse while they appear to be in charge ( and to blame ) , i think not

remember WW2 started when many nations were starting to claw their way out of a Great Depression ( and hyperinflation , in the case of Germany )

now of course aliens ( from outer space ) could always invade , but that occurrence is hard to predict , and plan to exploit

whatever happens i see the masses ( and middle-class ) getting hit in the pocket-book , maybe for hundreds of years ( their great great grand-children )

Mr divs,

You may actually be correct in your assumption that a complete moron is in charge of the asylum:






You just can't make this stuff up.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

​

New Bombshell Evidence Emerges: Was Trump Set Up In Classified Docs Saga?​

New Bombshell Evidence Emerges: Was Trump Set Up In Classified Docs Saga? | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

now what IF ... RFK is elected President

he has plenty of personal reasons to purge the FBI/CIA ( and others )

is this the perfect excuse

I'd vote for RFK. Sounds reasonably sane and intelligent compared to the other two.

Would he actually survive to be sworn in?

jog on
duc

 

[divs4ever]

i have a few areas of disagreement with RFK's policies but less than the other candidates ( including Jill Stein )

would he survive ??

well unless he becomes the King of forgiveness i can think of two agencies that would be very afraid of him ( unless there is a truckload of blackmail material on him )

his VP choice might have much to say about that ( remember how LBJ exploited the uncle's death )

i note now Trump , is starting disparage the Kennedy campaign , now i was always taught any publicity is good publicity

is Trump playing that game to diminish Biden , or is he making a common blunder ( he could have let the Democrats do all the heavy smearing )

 

[divs4ever]

BTW the Soviet ( unused ) over-capacity used to be the butt of many jokes back in the '80's by certain educated folks

maybe that extra expansion is being exploited now

anyone interested in WW2 would know the Soviets simply out-produced the Germans ( with 'inferior tanks' ) and virtually fielded more tanks than the Germans had shells to destroy them with

so they have played this game before , just not against a de-industrializing EU

( relatively ) crude , robust and hundreds of them is still the Russian way , one might also note a Russian tank is still built on Soviet -era chassis just new guns,motor and electronic gear ( and better armor ) makes upgrading really cheap

 

[UMike]

I'd vote for RFK. Sounds reasonably sane and intelligent compared to the other two.

Would he actually survive to be sworn in?

jog on
duc

Before the Don got sworn in I was told by big wigs from GM that he'd be taken out. Never happened.

Think those days are gone. There are better ways to do it in the future.

 

[divs4ever]

Before the Don got sworn in I was told by big wigs from GM that he'd be taken out. Never happened.

Think those days are gone. There are better ways to do it in the future.

but RFK carries some real memories , and appear to be the real heir to the Kennedy throne , would his own clan do worse than they have already .

there are several powerful sectors that have a lot to worry about

 

[ducati916]

Let's start with JC:

​

The Japanese Yen hit levels last night not seen in over 30 years. There was historic volatility this morning and some key reversals that may or may not hold over the short-term. But what you need to know is that the Yen is crashing. It's been losing value relative to "things". These "things" include all kinds of assets including stocks, commodities and bitcoin, who have all been hitting new highs when priced in Japanese Yen. Look at Bitcoin hitting new all-time highs in Yen terms:

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But here's the truth. This isn't just a Yen thing. It's a currency thing. Look beyond Japan. Assets all over the world have been making new all-time highs when priced in these currencies that are all losing their value. It's not just the Yen. Gold has been making new all-time highs, even priced in US Dollars. Copper is hitting new 52-week highs priced in the Dollar as well. And Crude Oil is coming right behind it:

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In an environment where the denominator (choose your currency) continues to deteriorate, of course prices are going up. That's how this works. We want to own "stuff". The old saying goes, "If you drop it on your foot and it hurts, you want to own it". That's the type of market we're in right now. And one thing we know for a fact, is that historically these cycles in "Stuff" do NOT just last for a few years... They last for a decade or two. So again, it is NOT about "How high can they go?" and more about "How long can this last?" Based on all historical measures, it is likely to last a long long time. So get comfortable. Are you prepared for $200 Crude Oil prices and $10/gal to fill your tank? How about $5000 Gold and $100 Silver? Are you ready for all that? $10 copper? If your answer is "No, I am not ready", well then you're in good company. Most investors aren't ready either. And that's what creates explosive moves: irresponsibly bad positioning. Investors have never been positioned worse. We have the data. And it's our job to profit from their unfortunate situation. I'm really looking forward to it myself. How about you? We'll be discussing all the details on what we're doing about it this Wednesday @ 6PM ET during our LIVE Monthly Charts Strategy Session for Premium Members of ASC Research.

We know that Trump intends (as does Biden) to devalue the USD. Has to happen. This is the pressure release valve for the UST market.



I would say (after looking at this data) that Yellen in the upcoming QRA will shift issuance to the short end to take advantage of that retail demand. A godsend for her.



The US falling behind in yet another area.

The Commercials (the big banks) are fighting the trend:



A strong USD breaks the UST market.

The Hedge Funds are on the other side. BoJ policy (intervention) could well be required. CB interventions don't generally end well. BoE and Soros.

On the elections and the 'possibility' of RFK winning and assassination. Trump, back when he was first elected was an outsider and posed no threat to the Establishment. RFK, as Mr divs points out, has a history that dates back 60yrs+ through his family and clearly knows who assassinated JFK.



Obviously the banking system is a point of control.

Pg. 2

 

[ducati916]

So continuing:



Trump confirming that he will devalue the USD.

BRICS



Will be very interesting to see who turns up to this.

Essentially BRICS have already won. The US is a deadman walking at this point.

The question is: was it (is it) actually a plan? A devious Machiavellian strategy?



The US knew (know) that they are destined to lose USD hegemony pricing in commodities. They also know that their manufacturing base is essentially gone.

To bring it back...do they torpedo the UST as the reserve asset and devalue the USD?

Obviously not Biden's strategy, the man is a simpering cretin, but infinitely malleable.

Thoughts?

Opened a new position in UNP @ $241.26



jog on
duc

 

[peter2]

Union Pacific (!) are you playing Monopoly?

How can you drop a railroad on your foot? Now a bar of gold, roll of copper wire or a barrel of oil is much easier to drop.

 

[ducati916]

Update





I'm with Mr fff, I think we have a couple more up days before anything too drastic changes.

We'll see.

jog on
duc