AOE - Arrow Energy

[travwj]

Arrow seems to be going okay, but it will trade above $3.00 during the day and then drop back below this resistance level later in the day. Would be good to see it to break through this level and continue on it's upward trend.





Trav

 

[bagasas]

What do people think of today's announcement to the ASX about Arrow's CSG reserves, in which they claim 20 trillion cubic feet (about 20,000 petajoules) for the Fort Cooper coal beds, and speculate there might be up to 70 trillion cubic feet in all of their acreage? The latter figure would mean AOE has control over as much gas as the whole North West Shelf project, and even if exaggerated or not all commercially exploitable, is still a huge resource for a company with a market cap of about $2 billion.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aZTMUHjKVoOE

 

[Nero64]

I wish I was pyramiding on this stock. I remember it going down to 1.90 or so when it announced the takeover of PES. Its future looks pretty good that's assuming the CSG to LNG becomes viable long term. BOW shot up as well.

 

[Wysiwyg]

I wish I was pyramiding on this stock. I remember it going down to 1.90 or so when it announced the takeover of PES. Its future looks pretty good that's assuming the CSG to LNG becomes viable long term. BOW shot up as well.

I`m interested to know why you think that. Would it have something to do with the environmental impact studies, safety or the feasibility of the whole project. It wouldn`t be the first time a major project has been canned. Given it is the first of its kind.

Anyway Arrow say they have the gas. My bold.

Gladstone pilot wells a success: 15th April 2009

ARROW Energy Ltd is increasingly confident it can deliver a reliable gas supply to the proposed Gladstone liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Queensland.

Arrow said recent success at coal seam gas (CSG) exploration and appraisal wells in the Bowen Basin supported its goal of providing a large, long-term gas source for the project, a joint venture with energy giant Shell.

The companies are examining the development of a CSG-to-LNG processing plant on Gladstone's Curtis Island, drawing on Arrow's large CSG resource.

Arrow said on Wednesday it was encouraged by initial results from pilot wells testing the Fort Cooper Coal Measures.

"Separately, within the Bowen Basin, Arrow has recently achieved some excellent flow rates from coals with permeability previously thought too low for gas production," it said.

Arrow managing director Nick Davies said the results "open up the potential for substantial new coal seam gas resources in the Bowen Basin for extensive further development".

Shares in Arrow were up 18 cents, or 6.19 per cent, at $3.09 at 1356 AEST.

 

[grace]

What do people think of today's announcement to the ASX about Arrow's CSG reserves, in which they claim 20 trillion cubic feet (about 20,000 petajoules) for the Fort Cooper coal beds, and speculate there might be up to 70 trillion cubic feet in all of their acreage? The latter figure would mean AOE has control over as much gas as the whole North West Shelf project, and even if exaggerated or not all commercially exploitable, is still a huge resource for a company with a market cap of about $2 billion.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aZTMUHjKVoOE

6 times the NW Shelf actually.

Very interesting results coming out of these recent drills. I always used ex-CEO Richard Cottee (QGC) comments to evaluate drills, but there seem to be improvements in technology as we go along the path.

Cottee said that mD (millieDarcies) below 10 was going to be tough. This is a measure of permeability. This one mentioned has 1 mD, yet it seems to give surprisingly good results. As I said, better technology going forward.

Remember that Cocono came to QLD first and drilled the csg fields with no success and returned to the US without their bag of money. Later drills (was it by Origin?) came up with plenty of gas.

Coal of 6 - 50 metres is fantastic of course. I own quite a few of these, but I might have to buy some more on the next US explosion!

Comments appreciated.

 

[Dangerous]

I`m interested to know why you think that. Would it have something to do with the environmental impact studies, safety or the feasibility of the whole project. It wouldn`t be the first time a major project has been canned. Given it is the first of its kind.

See my comments on the KAR thread.... But to summarise some risks

1. ridiculous amount of wells. 1000 odd CSG wells for one train. WPL needs . Yes WPL ones are more expensive, but managing thousands of wells is a logistical head ****.
2. Ramp up gas - you can't just provide a plant with 500tj/day without ramping up, due to dewatering. STO ramp up is 2 years. WPL-Pluto is 7 days
3. huge amounts of water and no feasible ideas of where to put it (some see this as opportunity)
4. Never been done before
5. ORG want 10,000 plus wells
6. CSG has huge footprint - gathering systems, trunklines, compression facilities, etc. This could create land access problems down the track although no glitches thus far.
7. Gladstone harbour - will need to dredge themselves a new dubai just to get a ship in
8. Bridge to Curtis island needs to be built
9. Companies are wasting time and money but not consolidating now
10. Oil price - when the price of oil was $140 the companies were going on about a multi billion NPV even at $70, the price at which they did the analysis.... I think it will be a while before oil is at $70 again. Some bad demand figures last night - OPEC will have to work harder

 

[Wysiwyg]

See my comments on the KAR thread.... But to summarise some risks

Yep thanks for that. The well connections and transport to the coast is going to take a looonnggg time.

 

[Dangerous]

6 times the NW Shelf actually.

I always used ex-CEO Richard Cottee (QGC) comments to evaluate drills, but there seem to be improvements in technology as we go along the path.

Grace, do not forget that at one AGM he said china were building two coal fired power stations a week and then a few months later he said one a day....

 

[travwj]

Arrow has been going very nice of late. I thought that it might of slowed down or have a little resitance at $3.50, but it went through rather easy, tested $3.50 as support and then kept going on it's upward trend. Up 16c today to close at $3.80, although the volume is a little low. All of this with out any news or information being released recently. Since my last post, about a month ago it has gone up 80c. Not bad at all.

Trav

check out the chart.

 

[Dukey]

indeed - it's been a surprisingly nice ride since the failed t/o of PES. I'm still wondering who they are looking at for another tilt... I was thinking BOW - but it might be a tall order and the risk of BG coming in over the top again would be too much I think.
Maybe they'll bide their time for now if they are sure they already have enough gas in the ground.
Either way - i feel vindicated in having held on to my AOE shares - 50 odd % in a few weeks aint half bad!!

-e

 

[xyzedarteerf]

hoping this will hit the $4+ mark soon, have been holding a few for a few months now and its been a good ride. hope to hear some more positives from them soon.

 

[Nero64]

It's been a bit muted today. Sellers lining up to get out around and before the $4 mark. Seems to have stalled some what. I think the whole CSG sector has been back and forth in a narrow range the past week. Origin is falling back and STO's capital raising and slow lethargic bounce. Sector is slowing. Oil rise could take it higher. Not sure. Some timely news about reserve certification might be on the cards.

 

[Nero64]

Something is brewing. Don't know what.

A stagering 41 million shares changing hands. 10 times the avg volume.

Not sure if it is good or bad.

Look at the overseas activity after the close:

05:16:11 PM 3.750 3,370,682 12,640,057.50 XTSXOS
05:06:59 PM 3.750 1,858,075 6,967,781.25 XTSXOS
05:02:38 PM 3.750 73,080 274,050.00 XTOS
05:01:43 PM 3.750 2,586,499 9,699,371.25 XTSXOS
05:00:50 PM 3.748 1,225,510 4,593,211.48 XTSXOS
04:58:01 PM 3.748 1,545,724 5,793,373.55 XTSXOS
04:49:36 PM 3.750 751,299 2,817,371.25 XTSXOS
04:48:08 PM 3.748 478,405 1,793,061.94 XTSXOS
04:39:18 PM 3.748 1,545,724 5,793,373.55 XTSXOS
04:39:18 PM 3.748 1,545,724 5,793,373.55 XTSXOS
04:32:37 PM 3.750 562,005 2,107,518.75 XTSXOS
04:29:29 PM 3.750 95,947 359,801.25 XTSXOS

If it is buying then this stock is going to smash above $4 and hold. Here's hoping anyway.

 

[oldblue]

Yes, huge volume of 43m, almost 6% of issued capital.

It's clear that someone is building a position but the interesting thing is that demand is being met readily with the SP down on the day, indicating that a big holder or holders are happy to lighten off.
Where does that leave us?

 

[grace]

Yes, huge volume of 43m, almost 6% of issued capital.

It's clear that someone is building a position but the interesting thing is that demand is being met readily with the SP down on the day, indicating that a big holder or holders are happy to lighten off.
Where does that leave us?

Thanks for that bit of info - I missed that. Where does that leave us? Well, if someone is taking a position (which wouldn't surprise me at all), then I think we are in a very good position. I learnt from PES that Shell were taking a position (from Mathews Capital) and look what happened there. After all, they can't take a position unless someone else gives in. I don't personally see it as a negative for Arrow. Arrow is one that I do not sell, just add to it. Here is a chart. Busting $4 looks important.

 

[eddyeagle]

Arrow seems to have corrected by about 10% in the last few sessions. Down to around $3.60 from 4 bucks... This is probably healthy given it's strong run from $2 from February.

Are people topping up at these levels? Buying on the dips?

 

[Nero64]

Are people topping up at these levels? Buying on the dips?

Personally I need a trigger or catalyst to go after a stock when in pull back mode. Whole CSG sector is taking a breather. Be patient and wait for the next trigger - assuming there is one

 

[xyzedarteerf]

just updating the news from Arrow today. Good luck to those holding.

Melbourne Royal Dutch Shell plc, Today welcomed the Queensland Governments decision to declare its Shell Australia Liquefied Natural Gas Project in Gladstone a significant project following submission of its Initial Advice Statement.

 

[eddyeagle]

Any Technical Analysis gurus care to share their thoughts on Arrow, which has had a decent 15-20% pull-back from it's highs?

I'm thinking there seems to be a fair bit of support in the $3.10-$3.20 region.

 

[Nero64]

$3.16 is the 38.2% fib retracement level. Might be support there but won't know unless it falls further.