AOE - Arrow Energy

[kingbrown]

I agree its gone very very quite
And AOE dont want to raise the white flag on PES just yet ??

We all know the large energy predators are out there with very big cheque books wanting in on this sector

the big Q ??
Which CSM will they have a crack at next ??

i do own AOE just in case
But my money is on a few smaller strategic CSM mobs being gobbled up 1st

Any comments ?

 

[TheAbyss]

I agree its gone very very quite
And AOE dont want to raise the white flag on PES just yet ??

We all know the large energy predators are out there with very big cheque books wanting in on this sector

the big Q ??
Which CSM will they have a crack at next ??

i do own AOE just in case
But my money is on a few smaller strategic CSM mobs being gobbled up 1st

Any comments ?

AOE have already let their offer for PES lapse so the white flag is unfurled and flying in the wake of BG.

My tip is BPT selling Tipton West and VPE CSG both bought by BG.

AOE may then complete the picture by selling their holding in full to Santos or Shell.

NSW - ESG is priced at a premium already so they may have to do some buying themselves or not much will happen in NSW IMO.

Just my 2 cents and not a lot of evidence to back my theories.

 

[Dangerous]

That kind of things happened to QGC too. Gossips !

....

They hammered QGC down to $2.40 from $4.80 in 2 weeks (end of Sept. - beginning of Oct 2008), then put a bid at $5.75 while it was trading around $3.10 on 23rd of Oct. People thought that they had a good price. Good work, wasn't it.

Anatol, what if JP Morgan had said that AOE were a takeover target. Would you use that to support your argument? The second thing is is that the whole mkt was crashing around QGC at that time.

Here is what the report said:

"Would Shell consider a potential takover of Arrow Energy first/instead? It could but unlikely, in our view, based on the economics of coal seam gas acreage held by Santos, BG and Origin is superior to that held by Arrow. Figure 1 shows a chart presented by Origin at JP Morgans's 2008 CSM corporate access day. the chart shows that the best results in QLD in terms of reserves recovery per well and also in terms of the average peak flowrate per well are achieved from the Fairview and Spring Gully fileds in the Bowen Basin, and also acreage in the Undulla Nose area of the Surat Basin. Much of Arrow's acreage is outside this area, as we highlight in Figure 2. With much lower anticipated reserves per well and lower peak flowrates, the economics of CSM-LNG would be inferior from Arrow's acreage compared to Santos' Fairview field. We believe that this issue has been highlighted by Arrow's bid for Pure Energy"

I had heard this of AOE before but never seen it presented in such a convincing manner (sorry i could not attach graphs). I think i had previously stated that AOE will be taken over. I stated this on the basis of how developed their infrastructure is compared to the PES's of the industry. PES is just a few holes in the ground with well head equipment whereas the AOE and QGC have trunklines, compression facitlies, gathering systems and everything else necessary for production.

I am holding some AOE but think critical analysis of stocks, or anything for that matter, important (see my CSG-LNG posts on KAR forum). Let us just wait and see - more "AOE will get taken over posts" are unlikely to change the outcome.

 

[anatol]

Anatol, what if JP Morgan had said that AOE were a takeover target. Would you use that to support your argument? The second thing is is that the whole mkt was crashing around QGC at that time.

Here is what the report said:

"Would Shell consider a potential takover of Arrow Energy first/instead? It could but unlikely, in our view, based on the economics of coal seam gas acreage held by Santos, BG and Origin is superior to that held by Arrow. Figure 1 shows a chart presented by Origin at JP Morgans's 2008 CSM corporate access day. the chart shows that the best results in QLD in terms of reserves recovery per well and also in terms of the average peak flowrate per well are achieved from the Fairview and Spring Gully fileds in the Bowen Basin, and also acreage in the Undulla Nose area of the Surat Basin. Much of Arrow's acreage is outside this area, as we highlight in Figure 2. With much lower anticipated reserves per well and lower peak flowrates, the economics of CSM-LNG would be inferior from Arrow's acreage compared to Santos' Fairview field. We believe that this issue has been highlighted by Arrow's bid for Pure Energy"

I had heard this of AOE before but never seen it presented in such a convincing manner (sorry i could not attach graphs). I think i had previously stated that AOE will be taken over. I stated this on the basis of how developed their infrastructure is compared to the PES's of the industry. PES is just a few holes in the ground with well head equipment whereas the AOE and QGC have trunklines, compression facitlies, gathering systems and everything else necessary for production.

I am holding some AOE but think critical analysis of stocks, or anything for that matter, important (see my CSG-LNG posts on KAR forum). Let us just wait and see - more "AOE will get taken over posts" are unlikely to change the outcome.

I wouldn't beleive what those guys say at all. They are the ones manupulating the market. That's for sure for me. I make my own research. Do you beleive if they see an crutial point and they would tell this to market ? No..!

The above report is right in some points. But I beleive it is not the acrage issue although AOE has got the biggest acrage is true. (I can send the tenements maps to your private email address dangerous.) Origin and Santos have the best known gas acrages, that is true too.

Yes, it is about the gas flow and quality of gas, everyone knows this. The right point is, Santos and Origin have got the best acrages ; Fairview and Spring Gully. Arrow deos not have much around this area. PES does not have much too ..! But look at their SP !

More importantly, if you look at the certified reserves Arrow has the 25% of whole QLD. This is written on QLD Government statistics. (I can email these too). Santos and ORG don't have more certified 2P reserves than AOE (inc.the 30% sold to Shell, of course) And that 2600 2P reserve is certified on only 10% of their acrages. Santos and Origin is not like that. Their reserves are nearly all in same area. So very much explored.

What about that? I am wondering why dont' they tell that on their report?

Gas flow, gas quality, etc. This gas will go to Asian market, especially China. Even someone got theinferior quality gas, it will still be easily sold. This issue was an argument 2 years ago when Woodside told they were not interested in CSG because it was inferior gas. Tey said they don't need it as they had enough LNG.! They you go. Everyone has a different point.

I am started to think Shell may takeover Santos which would be too expensive for BG to buy. (market cap is about 9b now, takeover would be 15b !) BG can't afford that much money. Their shares are already going down in UK because they are considered making risky investments. But Shell may do it. But I am not sure why Shell would do it aither! I believe Shell will go out of this market. They have enough investments all around the world on LNG (I explained this before)

So there is no one interested much in this CSG market other than BG
anymore IMO,

 

[bassmanpete]

Arrow's price up 24 cents today. Anyone think an announcement is imminent or is it just following the general trend?

 

[Jimminy]

I am started to think Shell may takeover Santos which would be too expensive for BG to buy.

So there is no one interested much in this CSG market other than BG
anymore IMO,

You should read what you write sometimes.... on one hand Shell may be interested in STO....and then you say no one other than BG is interested much in CSG...

I guess all the t/o action in the csg sector that has continued this year has been a figment of out imagination and that those parties involved have gone cold on the idea.

And I guess the action from AGL means they are not interested any more either.

 

[anatol]

You should read what you write sometimes.... on one hand Shell may be interested in STO....and then you say no one other than BG is interested much in CSG...

Read it carefully Jimminy;
"I started to think Shell may takeover Santos which would be too expensive for BG to buy. ....... But I am not sure why Shell would do it either! I believe Shell will go out of this market...)"

Means ; Shell does not have much interest to CSG market anymore, so there is only BG around of hot CSG business now. IMO in deed.

 

[jancha]

Anatol,
If Shell are no longer interested in CSG why did they have 11% of Pes ( AOE 20%) & why do they hold 30% of AOE & a 10% share of their international interests? Surely if they weren't interested they wouldn't be in the position where they are. I do hold AOE shares & think they're under valued. I think that PES was sold at a premium price & not at their true value. Both SHELL & AOE have done nicely out of the sale.

 

[stevenc]

Gday everyone, relatively new to the share market game and I am no financial wizard here so I have a question in regards to the AOE vs BG over PES saga. I own some AOE shares and have been following the takeover war over PES which has been interesting to watch for a newbie. What has surprised me is the fact AOE who had a fair stake in PES was effectively allowed to bump up the price of PES in the war, makes me wonder if they were serious about the offer or was it just a ploy to push up the price and take the money and run.

 

[subi1]

Gday everyone, relatively new to the share market game and I am no financial wizard here so I have a question in regards to the AOE vs BG over PES saga. I own some AOE shares and have been following the takeover war over PES which has been interesting to watch for a newbie. What has surprised me is the fact AOE who had a fair stake in PES was effectively allowed to bump up the price of PES in the war, makes me wonder if they were serious about the offer or was it just a ploy to push up the price and take the money and run.

Maybe they wanted PES but weren't prepared to go higher.

They have a lot of acreage to explore of their own so possibly they chose to go with that rather than using cash and increasing the no. of their shares on issue.

 

[eddyeagle]

Arrow's price up 24 cents today. Anyone think an announcement is imminent or is it just following the general trend?

There seems to be a bit of speculative excitement in this whole sector at the moment.

From AIR MIDDAY report:

Oil Search, Santos, Beach Petroleum and Eastern Star Gas flying on takeover speculations with consolidation in the Coal Seam Methane (CSM) space.

 

[phong_01]

If you look at the tenements of BG, AOE, BOW, PES, they are very close to each other and close to the proposed LNG facility. It would make sense that BG will consolidate AOE and BOW as well. It maybe a matter of time.

 

[Dangerous]

Great time to get out of arrow for a handsome profit.... their tenements are so sub standard that they are the only ones who will buy BPT's interest and at less than $1/GJ (2P)...

Perhaps AOE could launch a takeover of themselves.

 

[anatol]

Great time to get out of arrow for a handsome profit.... their tenements are so sub standard that they are the only ones who will buy BPT's interest and at less than $1/GJ (2P)...

Perhaps AOE could launch a takeover of themselves.

I am out, maybe in later.
Who knows ! The next takeover of AOE might be MEL (Metgasco) or BUL (Blue Energy). BOW would be expensive for AOE, BG could buy it.

 

[Nero64]

Why are you guys getting out of Arrow for. This deal is good for its future:

Post BPT Acquisition:

2P: 1644
3P: 4791
1P: 370

Its csg holdings will nearlly match Sanotos'

People are starting to see the value in this company especially after it went toe to toe with the much bigger BG.

It just made a 5.5 month high.

 

[Dukey]

Why are you guys getting out of Arrow for. This deal is good for its future:

Post BPT Acquisition:

2P: 1644
3P: 4791
1P: 370

Its csg holdings will nearlly match Sanotos'

People are starting to see the value in this company especially after it went toe to toe with the much bigger BG.

It just made a 5.5 month high.

I agree - I won't be selling AOE unless my hand is forced. Of course everyone trades or invests differently. But AOE is bottom drawer for me.

AOE tenements have done them fine so far and those reserves you posted speak for themselves.
- But I don't expect a t/o of arrow soon. More likely IMO is they will do some more shopping after buying beach's csg rights.

 

[Dangerous]

I am out, maybe in later.
Who knows ! The next takeover of AOE might be MEL (Metgasco) or BUL (Blue Energy). BOW would be expensive for AOE, BG could buy it.

BOW and BUL are the most overpriced ridiculous CSG stocks around at the moment.

BUL mkt cap is $100M yet they don't have one GJ certified

BOW have 105PJ, 40c/gj on PES values, yet it is valued at close to $2/GJ... crazy!

MEL on the other hand have same reserves as ESG yet their cap is one-tenth!

 

[anatol]

BOW and BUL are the most overpriced ridiculous CSG stocks around at the moment.

BUL mkt cap is $100M yet they don't have one GJ certified

BOW have 105PJ, 40c/gj on PES values, yet it is valued at close to $2/GJ... crazy!

MEL on the other hand have same reserves as ESG yet their cap is one-tenth!

Dangerous, I exactly agree with you.
BOW is very much overpriced (or there should be something we don't know). Its directors use the same slides and maps over over again on their presentation. There is nothing new but its price goes up every day. BUL has got nothing. Yes, MEL and ESG has a lot of potential and their prices are much more reasonable IMO.

 

[Dangerous]

Dangerous, I exactly agree with you.
BOW is very much overpriced (or there should be something we don't know). Its directors use the same slides and maps over over again on their presentation. There is nothing new but its price goes up every day. BUL has got nothing. Yes, MEL and ESG has a lot of potential and their prices are much more reasonable IMO.

Has not the market been very forgiving of Bow's ridiculous offer for RPM when QGC took them over?...

I have no idea what they were thinking back then

 

[phong_01]

Here are the reasons that I think BOW price is high:

- In terms of quality, they rate coal in Surat and Bowen basin has the best quality. Bow just obtained some of the last tenements of the Surat and Bowen basin area
- BOW will have their reserve certified during the year. People is expecting on the potential of the reserve as the area is very close to PES, AOE, QGC where reserve has been proven
- Location: close to the planned LNG plant of BG and AOE
- As its tenements are next to BG and AOE, eventually it will be taken over by either BG or AOE