AOE - Arrow Energy

[anatol]

7,000,000 shares were sold in one lot in preopen session this morning. This is 1% of the company.

Something is happening soon. (see my old posts above)

I am still insisting that BG's real target is AOE, not PES.

BG takeover of AOE looks very soon to me (in next two weeks)

BG looks like it won't be able to achieve 90% of PES. (PES shares are floating in the market, can't go up).

Shell looks like it has left the game (as I told before).

AOE owns 20% of PES ($200M) plus has more than $500M in cash. Total $700M cash value for BG. BG is not that much stupid, not to see this value!

As I told before if both BG and AOE leaves buying PES, what's going to happent to remaining shares? (most PES holders are still dreaming though).

People buying BOW, BUL, etc. shares, and their prices went up to roof ! There is no such a value on this shares. I don't know why they are buying at those prices while leaving AOE at $2.50 mark. Someone was saying on this forum "Stupidity is not a virus but spread out easily" (I like the meaning) That fits to this situation very very nicely.

See what's going to happen.

 

[anatol]

Comsec currently showing 7.4 Mill AOE shares traded already today - while over the last couple of weeks AOE has traded less than 3Mill shares - in a full day.
... interesting

Dukey, 7m shares was traded at $2.51 preopen in one lot. Not during the trade now. but the price is going up.

 

[anatol]

Every 6 seconds automatic bidding machine is buying 100 AOE shares again today. But it started at $2.63 this time (before it was buying between $2.49-$2.53). Those guys has increased the bar. This means AOE share price won't come below $2.60 anymore. Interesting!

 

[Dukey]

7,000,000 shares were sold in one lot in preopen session this morning. This is 1% of the company.

Something is happening soon. (see my old posts above)

I am still insisting that BG's real target is AOE, not PES.

BG takeover of AOE looks very soon to me (in next two weeks)

BG looks like it won't be able to achieve 90% of PES. (PES shares are floating in the market, can't go up).

Shell looks like it has left the game (as I told before).

AOE owns 20% of PES ($200M) plus has more than $500M in cash. Total $700M cash value for BG. BG is not that much stupid, not to see this value!

As I told before if both BG and AOE leaves buying PES, what's going to happent to remaining shares? (most PES holders are still dreaming though).

People buying BOW, BUL, etc. shares, and their prices went up to roof ! There is no value on this shares. I don't know why they are buying at those prices while leaving AOE at $2.50 mark. Someone was saying on this forum "Stupidity is not a virus but spread out easily" (I like the meaning) That fits to this situation very very nicely.

See what's going to happen.

BG went for PES first for a very good reason - they are right next door to PES's 852P and they know what PES have there, and it's a big tenement... and BG want it baaaaaaaaaaaaad. they won't let it go.

It's possible that BG will go for AOE - but I still maintain that if they wanted AOE and PES - they should have got AOE first, or let them eat pes and then get both together.

It could be a strategy to bring AOE to the bargaining table over PES.??

Or How about STO?? or some other big player?
or could it be part of a financing arrangement for AOE somehow.

- just thinking aloud - E

 

[anatol]

BG went for PES first for a very good reason - they are right next door to PES's 852P and they know what PES have there, and it's a big tenement... and BG want it baaaaaaaaaaaaad. they won't let it go.

It's possible that BG will go for AOE - but I still maintain that if they wanted AOE and PES - they should have got AOE first, or let them eat pes and then get both together.

It could be a strategy to bring AOE to the bargaining table over PES.??

Or How about STO?? or some other big player?
or could it be part of a financing arrangement for AOE somehow.

- just thinking aloud - E

I explained before that if AOE would buy PES, BG would not be able to buy AOE. AOE would be very strong and AOE and Shell were sticking very tightly that time. Then, BG put an obstacle to AOE by bidding PES,.. Shell has showed its unwillingness in this game,.. (I told this before too)

...and now BG and AOE is fighting face to face. I am sure BG will buy AOE. But OAE will not sell itself easily and at a cheap price. That is the game IMO.

If you don't think as a PES shareholder who still holds PES shares, you would see and understand what I mean. (Sorry I am not saying you are biased but frankly speaking).

I am not sure why BG would pay so much money to STO, if it could buy AOE and PES, while already has QGC and SGL tenements. it is huge and enough.

 

[Nero64]

Hey Anatol.

If you assumption is right about BG being interested in AOE.

What value do you place on AOE compared to say PES and QGC.

BG can't continuosly play this takeover game in this current economic climate surely.

Xstrata played this game and it is paying for it now.

BG wouldn't have endless pools of money. There would have to be some level of caution displayed.

AOE are playing a smart game though. The market it convinced something is brewing as well, but if it an act then AOE SP will pay for it.

Why would somebody sell 7Mill shares if they sensed being taken over?

Seems a bit odd.

 

[anatol]

Hey Anatol.

If you assumption is right about BG being interested in AOE.

What value do you place on AOE compared to say PES and QGC.

BG can't continuosly play this takeover game in this current economic climate surely.

Xstrata played this game and it is paying for it now.

BG wouldn't have endless pools of money. There would have to be some level of caution displayed.

AOE are playing a smart game though. The market it convinced something is brewing as well, but if it an act then AOE SP will pay for it.

Why would somebody sell 7Mill shares if they sensed being taken over?

Seems a bit odd.

The value for AOE would be valued with its 1P, 2P & 3P reserves of course. They have 2600 2P reserves. When QGC was sold to BG, it had same amount of reserves (I am not very sure though), and it was sold at $5.5b. If you consider over $500m cash in hand of AOE and $200m (20%) from PES shares hold by AOE, its price is not less than $5.5 a share. That makes its value 700m shares x $5.5 = $ 3.85billion. Still cheaper than QGC. If you consider it at $5.5b, than its share price for takeover would be $7.85. Not sure if BG would pay this much.

BG has a budget for this business. it is about $13.5b. This was the price what they wanted to pay for Origin. They did not spend this much yet. Only $5.5b to QGC.

7m shares was certainly sold as off-market IMO. We don't know how this happens but I believe BG's associates are buying AOE shares in the market and will transfer them to BG later on.

 

[Dukey]

I explained before that if AOE would buy PES, BG would not be able to buy AOE. AOE would be very strong and AOE and Shell were sticking very tightly that time. Then, BG put an obstacle to AOE by bidding PES,.. Shell has showed its unwillingness in this game,.. (I told this before too)

...and now BG and AOE is fighting face to face. I am sure BG will buy AOE. But OAE will not sell itself easily and at a cheap price. That is the game IMO.

If you don't think as a PES shareholder who still holds PES shares, you would see and understand what I mean. (Sorry I am not saying you are biased but frankly speaking). <<< this doesn't make any sense at all???

I am not sure why BG would pay so much money to STO, if it could buy AOE and PES, while already has QGC and SGL tenements. it is huge and enough.

****e I'm tired of this Anatol - you obviously believe you KNOW everything and you misunderstand what others post - time and time again. Where are you from ?

I'm saying it COULD BE (not IS) someone other than BG buying AOE shares.
- someone like STO...
I'm not saying that BG is buying STO. at all.

... though nothing is impossible
--------------

Just for the record Shell announced they would sell to BG - the day after I postulated the possibility.

 

[anatol]

****e I'm tired of this Anatol - you obviously believe you KNOW everything and you misunderstand what others post - time and time again. Where are you from ?

I'm saying it COULD BE (not IS) someone other than BG buying AOE shares.
- someone like STO...
I'm not saying that BG is buying STO. at all.

... though nothing is impossible
--------------

Just for the record Shell announced they would sell to BG - the day after I postulated the possibility.

Dukey,
don't make any comments on my post if you don't like what I say. Stay silent to my posts. This is the only way we don't fight here. All my posts are IMO. I can use "is, will, could would,etc" whatever. Why it is bothering you?

Mind your own business! OK?

I am not posting anything on PES forum because of your offencive attitude.

I know what you mean by saying "where are you from"? You are trying to offend me in a different way? Racist way, because you did not like my english! I don't care what you think. I am from here ! And I know where your kind of people are from too.

 

[skc]

So one's from a bottle and the other from an unknown galaxy far far away, but can't the genie and an alien just get along?

Several up days in a row, coupled with strong-ish volume today for AOE, but still well within recent range of $2.4 to $2.7. Corporate actions don't always play out as quickly as we wish.

 

[Logique]

The group of analysts whose opinions Comsec reports - have quietly downgraded AOE in the last few days.

 

[Dukey]

The group of analysts whose opinions Comsec reports - have quietly downgraded AOE in the last few days.

he he - that alone is almost enough to make me buy!! I think those analysts follow each other too much. not enough independent thinking goes on in their world.

but then I'm a contrary type....

....and apparently racist !! - this despite the fact that I've recently spent 4 years living in Japan, almost married a Japanese lady, ate lunch daily with a classroom full of cute little J-kids, and my favourite country in the world is Thailand - because they are the friendliest, gentlest people I've met (and great food!)
- be carefull spraying the 'R' word about Anatol - especially about someone who you do not know at all. there are plenty of racists in this country - but I'm not one of them.

 

[anatol]

he he - that alone is almost enough to make me buy!! I think those analysts follow each other too much. not enough independent thinking goes on in their world.

but then I'm a contrary type....

....and apparently racist !! - this despite the fact that I've recently spent 4 years living in Japan, almost married a Japanese lady, ate lunch daily with a classroom full of cute little J-kids, and my favourite country in the world is Thailand - because they are the friendliest, gentlest people I've met (and great food!)
- be carefull spraying the 'R' word about Anatol - especially about someone who you do not know at all. there are plenty of racists in this country - but I'm not one of them.

I am not interested who you are or where you are from. You have already showed who you are. I can easily comment that you only like the people who keep their head down. Wrong address! I am not one of them. Don't comment on my post as well. Mind your own business. Hold your horse and PES. That's it. No more reply to you.

 

[oldblue]

Take it easy, guys.

I value your opinions and don't want to see the moderators send either of you to the sin bin.
The AOE/ coal seam gas scene is intriguing and I for one can't see which of several ways things could break. Let's keep discussing the possibilities!

 

[grace]

Why would somebody sell 7Mill shares if they sensed being taken over?

Seems a bit odd.

Mathews Capital sold their significant holding in Pure Energy at $1.40 to Shell. Then look what happened.

Some things just don't make that much sense sometimes! I guess it is what we read into it that counts.

 

[beerwm]

Anatol makes a good point about the 13billion [ or whatever] that was offered to Orgin. So there is still some money BG can toss around.

Whether or not they acquire AOE, i find this highly unlikely.

There first offer for PES was conditional for 50.1%, so providing they form a takeover 100%, i'd say they would be satisfied for the time-being, getting double the reserves they played for.

 

[anatol]

Interview with AOE CEO Nick Daviesin Amsterdam, where he was attending the Flame European Gas Conference, by Bloomberg. (No comment by me)


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aSb1.B0FYZ5E&refer=australia

Arrow Is at ‘Difficult Point’ in Bid for Pure Energy, CEO Says
Share | Email | Print | A A A

By Ben Farey

March 9 (Bloomberg) -- Arrow Energy Ltd. is at a “difficult point” in its plan to acquire Pure Energy Resources Ltd., now that BG Group Plc has raised its stake to almost 30 percent, Arrow Energy Chief Executive Officer Nick Davies said.

“We do still stand a chance,” Davies said today in an interview in Amsterdam, where he was attending the Flame European Gas Conference. “If we decide to raise our bid then clearly we are still in the game.”

Arrow, which owns 20.2 percent of Pure, is considering whether to join 11.2 percent owner Royal Dutch Shell Plc in accepting BG’s A$1.03 billion ($654 million) cash offer for Pure. BG holds 29.2 percent of the Australian coal seam exploration and production company.

“It’s a difficult point for us to be in pole position, whichever way we go at the end,” Davies said. “We are still talking about it. We’ve not made a decision yet.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Ben Farey in Amsterdam at bfarey@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: March 9, 2009 09:05 EDT

 

[Nero64]

Just a comment on the Appendix 3B that came out yesterday.

85251 shares were issued to PES security holders. So that means a small amount of PES holders accepted Arrow's offer.

Also note total arrow shares is 704,225,479. Just wanted to ask members the relevance of listing this?

thanks

 

[Dangerous]

JP Morgan released a report on STO a few weeks ago in which they stated what i had previously only known as gossip - AOE gas is not as higher quality. They use a graph showing the the different fairways and basins - Surat, Bowen, Wallooons, etc...

They suggest that it is unlikely AOE will be taken over.

As we know these are the boys with the trading weight....

 

[anatol]

That kind of things happened to QGC too. Gossips !
Whatever they say, AOE has 25% of QLD gas reserves. And they have a lot more to explore. Some very big tenements are still waiting for Native title permissions.

They hammered QGC down to $2.40 from $4.80 in 2 weeks (end of Sept. - beginning of Oct 2008), then put a bid at $5.75 while it was trading around $3.10 on 23rd of Oct. People thought that they had a good price. Good work, wasn't it.

Something is definitly going on about AOE. Volume is very high (over 4m every day). There are auto share purchases in very 6 second (it was 100 shares before now 699 shares) in a price range.

Most importantly AOE is very quite. Looks like something is going to happen.