AOE - Arrow Energy

[oldblue]

I think we need to accept that AOE's csg isn't the only game in town. And the brutal truth is that there weren't any other bids.

AOE is a five bagger for me at these prices so I'm happy to quit and move a chunk of the proceeds onto another table - BOW's to be specific.

 

[JTLP]

2 questions:

1. Laurie and others...why are you so upset about AOE getting taken over? It's not as if it has been this price before...and who's to say that things would continue on this uptrend for years? Just a question I honestly don't mean to put noses out of joint...i'd be happy if some of my co's got t/o.

2. Oldblue...why are you putting it into BOW? Perhaps for the BOW thread but are there not other CSGer's with bigger reserves etc?

Thanks!

 

[laurie]

TheAbyss

If you are correct in what you are saying then in theory the share price today should have gone up because investors could have factored in the International upside when they jumped on at $5.29

laurie

 

[laurie]

2 questions:

1. Laurie and others...why are you so upset about AOE getting taken over? It's not as if it has been this price before...and who's to say that things would continue on this uptrend for years? Just a question I honestly don't mean to put noses out of joint...i'd be happy if some of my co's got t/o.



Thanks!

Because I got on Arrow for a long term investment e.g. dividends/sp because price of oil will go up followed by gas prices and they had power stations paying a good income for Arrow what I don't know who in the background was accumulating Arrow shares for this t/o me upset never

laurie

 

[bassmanpete]

JTLP, I'm not upset just, as I said, disappointed. I'm really a long term investor rather than a trader and was looking to have something grow from nothing (I bought in at around 30 cents) to something huge. So I'm happy to make a (quite considerable) profit but still a little disappointed, if you can understand that?

Having sat and thought about what I typed in the above paragraph for the last couple of minutes or so, I have to admit to a touch of excitement at the prospect of being involved with something new (the 'thrill of the chase' maybe?) and seeing if the management team can pull it off in the same way with the overseas projects as they have in Queensland.

 

[laurie]

JTLP, I'm not upset just, as I said, disappointed. I have to admit to a touch of excitement at the prospect of being involved with something new (the 'thrill of the chase' maybe?) and seeing if the management team can pull it off in the same way with the overseas projects as they have in Queensland.

Yep I agree with you there but again Shell or someone else can come back and do the very same thing TAKEOVER it's the jump from exploration to production where Dart will be a target

laurie

 

[TheAbyss]

TheAbyss

If you are correct in what you are saying then in theory the share price today should have gone up because investors could have factored in the International upside when they jumped on at $5.29

laurie

Agree 100%. That is why i opened with, "I must have missed something".

Numbers are true and most press today are saying similar to what i did yesterday so best estimate is that the Dart Energy share value is being discounted until some analysis has taken place.

Dart Energy will consist of the following and at the moment is valued at 32 cents per share on today's AOE share price (Current SP $5.02 minus cash offer of $4.70). This is wrong and time will see it rerate accordingly as the sell off is just the speculators who wanted north of $5 cash in my opinion.

The Dart component was valued at between 55 and 70 cents before the revised offer threw in $45 million start up capital and the $25 million loan facility so i am very confident the SP will head back up once the short term speculators are off the books

Dart Energy

• International CSG tenements
– China, Indonesia, India and Vietnam
– Cancellation of Shell back in rights
• Australian listed shares
– BOW Energy, Apollo Gas, LNG Limited
• Farm-in rights into Apollo Gas NSW tenements
• Ongoing 10% shareholding by Shell in Arrow Energy
International Pte Ltd (“AEI”)
• Cash of $45m to be transferred from Arrow Energy
• PetroChina to facilitate approval of Dajing PSC
• Future co-operation with PetroChina planned

 

[shinobi346]

from what I'm reading Arrow could still pullout of the deal but they would have to pay 1% of the transaction value.

 

[oldblue]

from what I'm reading Arrow could still pullout of the deal but they would have to pay 1% of the transaction value.

The break fee is payable "in certain circumstances".

We don't know what these are but we do know that:

- AOE board recommendation is subject to the usual " in the absence of a superior offer".

- the deal is via a scheme of arrangement, subject to approval by shareholders. ( 75% in favour with 50% of shares voting, from memory.)

- AOE isn't permitted to actively seek an alternative offer. This is normally where a break fee becomes involved.

 

[laurie]

from what I'm reading Arrow could still pullout of the deal but they would have to pay 1% of the transaction value.

If:

1.Shareholders dont approve deal and
2.FIRB says no!

wish #2 happens don't trust Chinese anymore may as well deal with the red star

laurie

 

[Atlas79]

"Indigenous groups angry over gas deal".

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=1032553

No comment.

 

[laurie]

hmm NAB got 5% of AOE today I think BOA has around 6% and Detuche Bank has around 5% thats approx.. 16% is this a blocking move by the banks

cheers laurie

 

[shinobi346]

Some nice upside as the ACCC announces they wont be opposing the sale of parts of AOE to Shell and Petrochina today. I'm kinda two heads about this decision. On one hand its another huge gas source going overseas and on the other it gives DART a healthy balance sheet to concentrate on their remaining tenements..

 

[laurie]

Some nice upside as the ACCC announces they wont be opposing the sale of parts of AOE to Shell and Petrochina today. I'm kinda two heads about this decision. On one hand its another huge gas source going overseas and on the other it gives DART a healthy balance sheet to concentrate on their remaining tenements..

DART was going to happen regardless of the T/O?

laurie

 

[bassmanpete]

Latest share price for Arrow is $4.75. That only values Dart at 5 cents. Seems like a bargain to me or are there people out there who know something I don't? Is there any possibility that the takeover won't go ahead? Any thoughts anyone?

 

[oldblue]

Latest share price for Arrow is $4.75. That only values Dart at 5 cents. Seems like a bargain to me or are there people out there who know something I don't? Is there any possibility that the takeover won't go ahead? Any thoughts anyone?

Just general uncertainty about the proposed new tax, Greek debt fears etc.

Shell have stated that there are no changes to the t/o but this, of course, doesn't rule out some future move.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...-arrow-bid-shell/story-e6frg9ef-1225862602383

 

[snowking]

not overly impressed that Arrow have decided the offer for Dart shares will now only be 1 Dart for every 2 arrow instead of 1 for 1 as originally advised.

 

[oldblue]

not overly impressed that Arrow have decided the offer for Dart shares will now only be 1 Dart for every 2 arrow instead of 1 for 1 as originally advised.

It doesn't matter how they divide the Dart pie. Similarly, if they gave us 10 Dart for 1 AOE it wouldn't make any difference.

One for two AOE just means that there will be less Dart shares around with twice the theoretical value, whatever that may be, than in a one for one allocation.

 

[snowking]

i realise that the intention is to increase the value of the Dart shares however the market doesn't seem to think so. very little movement in the sp in the last month. I would have thought an increase in the value of Dart shares would have seen Arrow's current sp increase.

 

[oldblue]

i realise that the intention is to increase the value of the Dart shares however the market doesn't seem to think so. very little movement in the sp in the last month. I would have thought an increase in the value of Dart shares would have seen Arrow's current sp increase.

No, because you would now have to buy twice as many AOE shares to obtain the "increased value" Dart shares!

There is still some uncertainty around the takeover by Shell, particularly whether the price may be re-jigged in the light of the proposed new tax.

The other major issue is that no-one really knows how to value the Dart remnant, despite the independent expert's stab at putting a value on the total AOE enterprise.

Not surprising really that AOE's SP isn't stronger.