Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

ANZ - ANZ Banking Group

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TremorChrist said:
Found this negative review of CPS3:
http://www.intelligentinvestor.com.au/articles/ANZ-CPS3-Convertible-Preference-Shares-ANZPC/ANZ-CPS3-A-three-strike-failure.cfm
Article makes sense to me, and I actually found it quite educational (at least for a newbie like me); so I'm definitely avoiding this offer. Already have ordinary shares in ANZ anyway.
Click to expand...
Slightly harsh in my opinion.

I mean... the articvle is flawed. Just because it's a good deal for ANZ, doesn't mean it's a bad deal for investors. Using that logic, no-one would ever get a home loan, or even get a job... both parties CAN win in a transaction. We know this because that article recommends you purchase OTHER assets that are for sale.

The other key part of the article is:
"In the event of a financial cyclone, though, these preference shares will behave much more like equity than debt."

And, that is correct. However, in a 'large financial downturn' or 'normal' or 'good' or 'great' or ANYTHING short of a 'financial cyclone'.... the CPS3 should hold up quite well. At the end of the day, their price may go down.... but, if you can hold till 2016, that's perfectly fine. Otherwise, they should still be paying dividends.

"They’re barely worth the paper they’re written on. If ANZ’s tier 1 capital falls below 5.125% (it’s currently about 8.5% and was 5.2% in 2007)"
Well, yes.... but, it was also at around 10% during the GFC as the bank took a conservative approach. Back in 2007, T1 ratios of 5.2 was normal. Now, post-GFC, APRA requirements (and global standards) are higher.... and ANZ won't go back down to 5.125, baring a major catastrophe... in which case, the ordinary shares would get so entirely pummeled that it is not funny.

$100 is probably a fair price... their other 3.1% CPS are trading at circa $101, but have sllllightly more protection.... so, $100 is probably fair. THey were obviously quite oversubscribed though, so there is no reason that they can't (even temporarily) go to $101.

As to whether or not I'll buy? Almost certainly not, as I don't want to spend $5,000. If they fall below $100 once trading, I'll consider picking up a small parcel of $3000 or so.
 
Appears due to high demand they went for 3.1% which is a disincentive. In the short term rates don't seem inclined to rise. It is slighly higher risk because of some differences contained in the terms.
 
ANZ help!

Hi All

I am new to stocks, I am not sure if I am typing at the right section of the forum, but I need some desperate help

I purchased some ANZ shares when it was $23.85 last week, it’s been dropping since, I was hoping it will go back up, but it’s continue to drop.

Could someone please tell me why it’s drop 4.5% today? I can’t find any bad news.

Also should I sell it, will it keep dropping? Any ideas when it will start to go back up?

Thank you
 
LoadingStock said:
Hi thanks for that, i am very new, where can i see the dividend dates of the companies?

And I very dumb question, so even if I got the shares last week, I will still get paid the full dividend? or only a % of it?

thanks
Click to expand...

Have a search on asx.com.au - you can usually find past and upcoming dividends for all Australian companies there :)
Here's the link to ANZ
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/companyInfo.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=ANZ

You will get paid the full dividend as long as you purchased the shares before the ex-dividend date.
 
With some talk of the 4 Pillars being demolished, it would be prescient to look at ANZ for future profit in any rationalisation.

It seems to be following elliot analysis with it's wave movements on the monthly, being in a wave 3.

More interesting though is a 5 year monthly chart showing a possible major resistance point at just above $31, attained in late 2008 with a double top.

If it moves beyond this on volume I may consider jumping on, though I have a very profitable run on WBC going from $23, which makes me loathe to jump.

Thoughts on this would be appreciated, even by fundamental analysts on ASF.

big.gif


gg
 
Not much change since I last posted.

Volume has been falling on the most recent rise so I am still conservative in my views on ANZ.

I won't enter unless it breaks that previous high in Oct 2007.

gg
 
What a day, only good things to come i imagine looking at the report, future looking bright for ANZ
 
Remember like a year or two ago, there were articles saying ANZ would be the best bank to bank on because of their foray into Asia. I bought into that at just below $24...looks like it has paid off, albeit for different reasons.
 
Wish I had more capital during 2009. So glad that I have held since then. People still skeptical about their Asian adventure but ANZ were buying up over there when things were very cheap just like ANZ were cheap themselves at the time.
 
Today's SP action baffles me - 11% rise in half year profit and 14% increase in interim dividend, yet the SP fell 1.2%.

Some might say this was "priced in" before the announcement, but these always seem to come in hindsight. Further, it appears that the results beat analysts' expectations.
 
Tyler Durden said:
Today's SP action baffles me - 11% rise in half year profit and 14% increase in interim dividend, yet the SP fell 1.2%.

Some might say this was "priced in" before the announcement, but these always seem to come in hindsight. Further, it appears that the results beat analysts' expectations.
Click to expand...

From what I have read the result was roughly in line with consensus and only reached consensus due to higher one off trading profits (unlikely to be repeated) and lower impairment provisions. Both of these are considered "lower quality" contributors. Also investors were disappointed that ANZ would not neutralise the effect of the DRP by buying those shares on-market. Instead all the shares would be issued, hurting future ROE and diluting the impact of the dividend increase (higher dividend but effectively the company is issuing capital to pay it out).
 

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