ANZ - ANZ Banking Group

[condog]

Montgomery compares CBA to NAB - 27th Nov 2009
From:
http://bigpondnews.com/articles/Finance/2009/11/27/Montgomery_compares_CBA_to_NAB_399252.html

'In terms of economic performance, CBA is vastly better than the NAB,' he said.

'If I owned NAB I would probably switch to CBA if I wanted to remain in the banking space.'

From
http://contribute.abc.net.au/_Roger-Montgomery/audio/600631/32422.html

On ABC Radio Roger Predicts NAB's ROE dropping from 21% last year to 12.5% in 18 months time

He claimed in another interview that CBA was the only Bank to raise ROe as a result of its capital raising during the GFC, while all other banks have substantially lowered ROE

 

[ricee007]

why don't you take the time to check whether the figures are accurate?

doesn't take long, just a quick read through the most recent annual report and some simple maths

Honestly, 80percent because i can't be bothered, and, it doesn't matter to me. ANZ would remain my first choice exposure for otger reasons. I just thught this provided a small amount of extra evidence.

Partly because i was hoping someone else would do It. Hey, at least i''m honest. I would like to think i contributed a lot to page 5....

roe for one year throug the gfc is meaningless. Anz was gaining equity, which allows them to smash into Asia now and expand heavily. Any day at all a nww announcment could come saying they spent one billion on Asian assets.

Having said that, i am yet to meet anyone at alll who prefers investing in nab. Very, few in westpac, several in cba, most in anz. Having said that, of course, this is mainly uneducated forum members...so, take that with a grain of salt (thouugh, i do rly disprefer nab)

kind regards

 

[gooner]

Montgomery compares CBA to NAB - 27th Nov 2009
From:
http://bigpondnews.com/articles/Finance/2009/11/27/Montgomery_compares_CBA_to_NAB_399252.html

'In terms of economic performance, CBA is vastly better than the NAB,' he said.

'If I owned NAB I would probably switch to CBA if I wanted to remain in the banking space.'

From
http://contribute.abc.net.au/_Roger-Montgomery/audio/600631/32422.html

On ABC Radio Roger Predicts NAB's ROE dropping from 21% last year to 12.5% in 18 months time

He claimed in another interview that CBA was the only Bank to raise ROe as a result of its capital raising during the GFC, while all other banks have substantially lowered ROE

ROE is a fairly meaningless measure for banks unless you adjust for goodwill, size of wealth business and other intangibles as well as stripping out hybrids which are sometimes included in equity in the balance sheet. If you do that, the bank with the worse ROE may be in the one to invest in as it has the most improvement to catch up with the others..........

 

[condog]

ROE is a fairly meaningless measure for banks unless you adjust for goodwill, size of wealth business and other intangibles as well as stripping out hybrids which are sometimes included in equity in the balance sheet. If you do that, the bank with the worse ROE may be in the one to invest in as it has the most improvement to catch up with the others..........

Whilst I hear what you say in in a small way agree with a small part of what your saying I do disagree

ROE is the most significant financial ratio bar none - in isolation....and whilst I and hopefully every person in here would not be stupid enough to make decisions in isolation.....When you have four banks selling basically the same products in similar markets for the bulk of their business.......Id really like to know what is much more important than ROE... After all what are shareholders buying....a portion of that equity......and what do they want.....the best ROE they can get....

The market has a habit of looking through the rubbish and establishing real value on a regular basis......time will tell.....

The problem with ANZ, WBC, and NAB is they heavily diluted equity when SP where lowest........

 

[drlog]

One of the problems with P/E's of course is that they can be historical or prospective, and if the former are they based on last year's NPAT or on an annualised interim figure? If it's a prospective P/E, whose forecast is it based on ? Or is it an analysts' consensus forecast? So it's a big trap for unwary players!

We need to know the answers to these questions to comment on CommSec's numbers and to bear in mind the "rubberiness" of any such numbers.

As far as I understand it, Commsec takes the median forecast growth. In ANZ's case, it is 5 forecasts giving -8% then 23.6% growth over the next 2 years. They calculate the P/E on the previous years earnings and next years earnings forecast using a weighted average from EOFY to the next EOFY. So if the price doesnt move at all, the P/E in commsec will change slightly from day to day.

I would expect the commsec P/Es for a big company like ANZ would be correct (likewise for the other big banks). However, in the interest of being 100% correct,

21.98 / 1.683 = 13.06 TRAILING PE

Considering that ANZ will shrink (according to the forecast) the real PE should be a little higher.

 

[ricee007]

Howdi,

I wrote
http://ozbankers.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=30&Itemid=29

In which I devoted a bit of time to ANZ CPS2.... might be of interest to some?

 

[Bill M]

Howdi,

I wrote
http://ozbankers.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=30&Itemid=29

In which I devoted a bit of time to ANZ CPS2.... might be of interest to some?

Hello ricee007, I read your article and found it very informative. It reconfirms all my thoughts on the subject and is very helpful to anyone who might want to invest in hybrids. I am subscribing to the ANZ CPS2, I need some interest income and I reckon that as interest rate margins reduce these will be nice little earners, good now and even better in the future, cheers.

 

[ricee007]

Hello ricee007, I read your article and found it very informative. It reconfirms all my thoughts on the subject and is very helpful to anyone who might want to invest in hybrids. I am subscribing to the ANZ CPS2, I need some interest income and I reckon that as interest rate margins reduce these will be nice little earners, good now and even better in the future, cheers.

90 day BBSW was 4.04% on the 3rd, 4.06% on the 4th, 4.1033% on the 7th... it's rising... we might see a 'perfect storm' of credit markets thawing, the BBSW rising, money re-entering markets and companies becoming less risky....

This bodes well for those of us who hold hybrids. Pity after selling my MXUPA (temporarily), I only have $4,600 in hybrids .

Thank you for your kind thoughts.

I don't *mind* ANZCPS2.... I just think that the expected yield is just that little bit too low for me, given the other opportunities that I would rather at the moment.... 5% capital gain is certainly feasible within 12 months though.... and with interest payments of circa $7.60.... 12.6% for the first 12 months is possible, and not bad considering how miniscule the downside risk is. These will pay a lot more than inflation.... and, up to 12.6% in 12 months is possible....... enough for me to consider it at least.

The second biggest hurdle was, I don't have $5,000 cash. If I could have bought $2,500... I wouldn't have minded quite as much and perhaps would have.

 

[The Owls]

ANZ Bank

I wonder what companies have to do to make the major plays in the stock market happy, The ANZ announced the first half return with a 36% rise in profit, dividends up 13%. All the knockers would be very happy if their pay went up by the same percentages. Why do the major players panic and drop their bundles.

 

[doogie_goes_off]

Re: ANZ Bank

Sorry to be annoying Owls, but can I just suggest that you search the forum and add to existing threads for companies, I'm sure there's an ANZ thread already going and it makes the moderators job hard if they are constantly culling duplicate threads. Cheers.

 

[drsmith]

Re: ANZ Bank

I wonder what companies have to do to make the major plays in the stock market happy, The ANZ announced the first half return with a 36% rise in profit, dividends up 13%. All the knockers would be very happy if their pay went up by the same percentages. Why do the major players panic and drop their bundles.

Earnings results are typically factored into share prices well before the announcement. Just look at the bank's share price over the past 12 months and today's change relative to that.

If earnings were expected to be up 30 something percent and were up 60 something percent, that would be something to celibrate.

 

[oldblue]

Re: ANZ Bank

Earnings results are typically factored into share prices well before the announcement. Just look at the bank's share price over the past 12 months and today's change relative to that.

If earnings were expected to be up 30 something percent and were up 60 something percent, that would be something to celibrate.

All that is true but in ANZ's case it seems that consensus earnings figures were met and even slightly exceeded.

Possibly a case of looking for an excuse to take a few profits in an uncertain market?

 

[The Owls]

Re: ANZ Bank

Sorry to be annoying Owls, but can I just suggest that you search the forum and add to existing threads for companies, I'm sure there's an ANZ thread already going and it makes the moderators job hard if they are constantly culling duplicate threads. Cheers.

Sorry for not checking far enough back. I looked at 3 odd pages in the search section and thought there was not a thread for the ANZ. In future I will look at more pages. On the other hand is it possible to filter out all other threads with ANZ in them when doing the search. Thanks for any help.

 

[ricee007]

Concensus figures seem to have been met (during GFC, this leads to buying... out of GFC this can lead to dropping).
Dividend slightly below expectations.
Whole sharemarket is having a red day.
They talked Europe down a lot.
Low volume day, so, SP action (whilst not completely immaterial) doesn't mean much.



All up = red opening. Still a chance of a black closing.

 

[BrightGreenGlow]

Can someone tell me why ANZ has been a massive sell off this week? This had a good profit and better dividend. I understand it went ex-divi onTuesday (or wednesday) I've forgotten but its tanked hard.

I thought ANZ was a good bank to buy into. Asian presence, good solid base, one of the big 4 and good consensus.

NAB is a waste of time, SUN is a dog and WPC has a female for a CEO so should I buy back into CBA? :S poor ANZ.... whyy???

 

[Dark1975]

Can someone tell me why ANZ has been a massive sell off this week? This had a good profit and better dividend. I understand it went ex-divi onTuesday (or wednesday) I've forgotten but its tanked hard.

I thought ANZ was a good bank to buy into. Asian presence, good solid base, one of the big 4 and good consensus.

NAB is a waste of time, SUN is a dog and WPC has a female for a CEO so should I buy back into CBA? :S poor ANZ.... whyy???

I think it dosn't matter of which type of bank stock you are buying,it's gonna take a beating due to woes of europe(greece debt etc,etc).We do follow the dow,So i would stay away from banks,and non-defensive stocks for the short-term..Because we could begin to see the false dawn unwinding shortly,We could be in for a wild ride.
And disagree with your statement about gale kelly being c.e.o of westpac on not picking your stock.She has actually given westpac a 32% profit increase.So not chosing a stock because she's a female is sexist and just wrong.

 

[BrightGreenGlow]

I shouldn't be so sexist but I don't believe she is doing a good job for Westpac. Seems too interested in her looks rather than a company?

 

[oldblue]

I shouldn't be so sexist but I don't believe she is doing a good job for Westpac. Seems too interested in her looks rather than a company?

Is that so? Must say I havn't noticed.

My only concern would be that her background with St George means that she has a heavily retail orientation which is probably showing up in WBC's recent emphasis on mortgage lending, possibly at the expense of their corporate and business banking customers. Whether this is the right strategy at this stage only time will tell

 

[Julia]

I shouldn't be so sexist but I don't believe she is doing a good job for Westpac. Seems too interested in her looks rather than a company?

What a fascinating suggestion. Perhaps you could enlighten us as to your basis for saying she is more interested in her looks than the company?

 

[cutz]

I shouldn't be so sexist but I don't believe she is doing a good job for Westpac. Seems too interested in her looks rather than a company?

Personally I think G.K. is doing a brilliant job at WBC, my favorite out of the big four, the only thing that’s making me a little nervous is any potential fallout from a property crunch.