AMT Model & Methodology

Frank D · 27 October 2009

S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

"This often happens on Tuesday after Monday initially moves down into
the Weekly 50% level and finds support, and then Tuesday breaks
support and trends down (large trending day)

Monday:- price normally will try and rise upwards, therefore it won’t
surprise me to see a Spike upwards on Monday using Yellow Support in
both markets

DOW spike and resistance 10021
ES spike and resistance 1086.

If there is a spike upwards and then price should continue down and
into Monday’s 5-day lows, then I would suggest holding positions
open because Tuesday might surprise a few people.

Depending on how many contracts traded:- partial exit the 5-day lows
on Monday" Monday's Premium

Everything on Monday has played out precisely, from the rise upwards
on Monday and the ‘spike’ into upper resistance levels in both the DOW
and S&P, and both markets have reversed down into the Weekly 50%
level closing on the lows.

If US markets are going to follow SET-UP B, as per the Weekly report,
then Tuesday will swing upwards off these lows and close back above the
5-day 50% level.

However, we aren’t trading SET-UP B, we are trading SET-UP A,
and traders should have partial exited around Monday’s low and or
the Weekly 50% level and hold…

Because Tuesday might surprise a few people?

Well if it follows SET-UP A, Tuesday’s trending down day will be
back around the 3-week lows on the same day and could even be lower
by Wednesday.

Frank D · 28 October 2009

SPI monthly and Weekly

SPI continues with the reversal down after completing the 3-month cycle breakout pattern from July into October.

I expected more weakness in US markets on Tuesday, and for the SPI
to already be trading around the 3-week lows by Wednesday and heading
lower by Friday.

Hopefully the S&P continues down and provides the trending pattern that
I expected yesterday, and not remain inside the 5-day range and more rotation until November.

I want price to drop as far as possible this week so the volatilty comes
back into the market and provides more ideal swing trading for the rest
of this quarter.

Frank D · 29 October 2009

SPI Monthly and Weekly

SPI completes the move down into the 3-week lows, and there is still
an expectation of lower prices towards 4398 by Saturday.

These 3-week levels are robust support zones in up trends, but not so
much when 3-month cycles end, as I’m expecting these levels to fail
and continue down towards the monthly 50% levels.

At the start of October if you recall, my expectation was a
short-term pullback into the 3-week lows for support and for a move
upwards in October to complete the 3-month cycle tops as part of
the breakout pattern from July and into October.

This played out precisely.

Once the 3-monthly cycle was completed (October highs), these
3-week lows are first target pullback zones, with SET-UP A
favouring a move back down into the monthly 50% levels by Saturday/ Monday.

Doesn’t leave much room for another +200-point fall with 1 1/2 days
remaining until the end of the month, but it can happen.

Real1ty · 29 October 2009

This is a very interesting thread to follow and you have made some very accurate calls Frank. I would think the most accurate on here.

Thanks for the contribution.

Frank D · 30 October 2009

Real1ty said:
This is a very interesting thread to follow and you have made some very accurate calls Frank.

I wish they were more accurate, especially last night on the S&P.

S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

S&P has followed a higher timeframe support level @ 1038 and a swing
back towards the Weekly 50% levels. (Yearly 50% level 1038)

These Weekly 50% levels are the trend guides for the rest of this week.

It wasn’t the pattern that I wanted on Thursday, as I was looking for
the market to complete the move into Thursday’s lows, which matched the
3- Week lows around support zones.

I’ve been bearish all this week and this UP move on Thursday isn’t a
concern in a downtrend just yet, because often price can have a higher
daily close and then continue down into a lower Weekly close on Friday
after retesting the 50% levels

However, the concern for any downtrend is, price shouldn’t be trading
above the 5-day 50% level, as a Weekly down trend will retest the
5-day 50% level and then continue down the same day or the next.

And if Thursday midnight closes above the Weekly 50% level, then there is
a potential higher weekly close back around the 3-day cycle highs
@ 1088

Not good for short-term bears, as price is rising up from the Yearly 50%
level and still above the monthly 50% levels - SET-UP B

And also not good for lower swing traders, as I had ideal long swings
trades from lower prices next week (bummer)

Frank D · 31 October 2009

S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

As I mentioned yesterday, Thursday's UP day wasn't a concern, as I've
seen these patterns before.

Thursday just gave another opportunity to get back into the trend.

Friday:-Higher Daily open using resistance levels (weekly) with
the expectation that price would continue down into a lower Friday close
and follow the original Weekly direction.

Yesterday closed above the 5-day 50% level, but Friday opened
below forming a thrust pattern into the lower Friday close.

The only thing I'm not happy about this week's trading, was it didn't go
down more: Tuesday should have crashed and be trading below the
3-week lows.

Frank D · 5 November 2009

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern (day session)

SPI continues to consolidate around the November 50% level, but still in
a down trend in the lesser timeframes (below 50% level)

There is a breakout in the weekly lows from last week so there is
an expectation that price will continue down into the Weekly lows this week
@ 4414. (3-day sell cycle)

This week has seen the exact same patterns, early rise to complete the
r42 highs and then 42-point reversals down and more consolidation.
(#1. #2, #3)

5-day channels are tightening (Blue) so I’m looking for a breakout
shortly, and hopefully a move down into the Weekly lows.

For any UP trend to continue it needs to be above the resistance levels
and consolidate for a number of days, and I can't see that happening just
yet.

Frank D · 6 November 2009

SPI Weekly (day session) and 5-day pattern

This week has seen the SPI remain below a number of key levels @ 4573-76

Below the 3-week lows
Below the 3-day highs
Below the 3-month 50% levels

All at the same price @ 4573-76, so this level was a key level
for this week & probably the month.

Therefore any UP trend to continue needed to be moving above this level
and heading towards 4610 (R42 points) and continuing higher on Friday.

Trend guide and support 4561 today (5-day 50% level).

My Preferred pattern today was a rally on open and continuation of the
trend up towards the Weekly 50% level on the same day.

Instead it was choppy around the top for most of the day around 4575
with late buying in the afternoon (but a lack of volume) until the market closed @ 16.10 and then the SPI kicked higher into the close.

SPI is still below the Weekly 50% levels.

Frank D · 9 November 2009

"Robust swing points to trade longs from lower prices
from next Friday. The trend would continue down another week, but
then provide support next Friday and for a large 3-day counter-trend
rally back upwards the week after that" .....31st October US Weekly.

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

5-days later and the SPI has a higher Friday close (not lower) but the large
3-day rally begins this week with the confirmation of the 5-day high breakout on Monday

Expectation that the SPI should continue to move towards the
November highs, helped by the S&P remaining above their weekly 50%
levels on Monday.

Important support zones:- Yearly 50% level @ 4455 tested
and support, confirmed with price closing back above the 3-week lows
with Friday's close, and trading the november 50% levels

Frank D · 10 November 2009

S&P 500 Weekly and 5-day pattern

S&P continues with SET-UP B, with Monday's breakout and
extension upwards into Tuesday.

This is part of a 3-day rally this week, after last weeks November 50%
level support.

Frank D · 11 November 2009

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

SPI continued the 3-day pattern with today's open and range towards
the spiral top @ 4775...

However, it was a bit disappointing that price didn't continue higher
on Wednesday and follow the move towards the highs @ 4810+

That completes the 3-day UP move this week and my probability pattern
for this week.

Therefore any continuation upwards will have to be based on price action
in the S&P 500, which already trading around resistance levels.

Frank D · 12 November 2009

S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

Weekly high resistance @ 1103 and reversal down into support @
1092.25.

Ideally the pattern would have been for the S&P to break
support and reverse back down into the 5-day 50% level, as part of
a reversal down into the Weekly 50% levels by Friday.

Today's price action suggests that the S&P will hang around these highs
until Friday.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SPI continues into Wednesday's highs @ 4817 overnight.

Frank D · 12 November 2009

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

As per my 3-day pattern rally this week (exit stocks on a higher Daily
open on Thursday), expectation of a 2-day reversal.

At this stage this is viewed as a 2-day reversal pattern back down into Weekly 50% level
support levels.

If the market is going to go higher, then next week's open should align with support for a
move towards the November highs.

If the SPI is opening below 4615 then there is probably more weakness
to come, depending on the price action in the S&P 500 over the next
2-days.

Frank D · 17 November 2009

S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

After last week's 3-day rally and 2-day reversal into Friday's 5-day
50% level, US markets and the SPI are follwing in the Weekly dynamics
into higher highs early this week.

As per Weekly report, S&P target in the 4th Quarter is 1126 (SET-UP B)

Frank D · 18 November 2009

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

In last week's US Index report I posted this....

Even though there is an expectation that price
can continue higher, that might not happen next week, as there is
a possibility of another 5-day sideways pattern.

The most robust pattern for any higher moves upwards would be a choppy
5-day sideways pattern with the bias to drift down into the weekly
50% levels by next Friday...

And then continue higher the week after that using support"

What we are seeing is the SPI follow that price action, remaining in a
tight sideways 5-day pattern, whilst US markets continue to rise.

Normally next Monday would open around the Weekly 50% levels and
then continue higher using Support for a continuation upwards into
November highs and then December highs:- 2-month wave pattern
within a new 3-month cycle (4th Quarter)

However, it’s the price action in the S&P that’s going to dictate whether
the SPI follows another move upwards next week, because the S&P is
now nearing my upper 4th Quarter targets.

If we starting seeing the S&P 500 moving down and the SPI below the
weekly 50% levels, I’d be extremely careful with any long positions
in the short-term.

Frank D · 20 November 2009

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

Choppy 5-days of trading and a lower close on Friday @ the Weekly
50% levels.

In theory the trend should continue upwards and follow higher highs
into December over the next 2 weeks.

Ideally using Monday and a Weekly open to validate the support

Normally you can align the price action in the SPI with the S&P 500 to
pre-empt the move in the SPI, in this case up.

However, the price action in the S&P 500 is conflicting, with
yesterday’s break of the short-term support levels @ 1097.50.

If US markets follow a simiar pattern and continue down on Friday
towards their Weekly 50% levels, then that's 200 points down which puts
the SPI back around the November 50% levels.

Even though the S&P 500 in the short-term looks bearish and a possible Weekly trend reversal into a lower Friday close.

It wouldn't surprise me if there's an UP day.

But it's not a 'BUY' day in my books.

Frank D · 23 November 2009

SPI Weekly (day session) and 5-day pattern

As pointed out early last week:- lower Friday close into support levels
and this normally favours a lower Weekly open and a continuation
upwards into higher highs over the next 2 weeks.

Normal price action would begin with a 2-day reversal back towards 4797,
as the first pattern and then continue upwards in December.

However, it’s not the price action in the SPI, it’s the price action in the
S&P 500 over the next 2 days that’s going to validate that happening.

Currently the price action in the S&P 500 is bearish in the short-term:
- below 1097.50, and whilst below this level I have a view that the S&P
is trying to make its way down into the Weekly 50% level over the
next 2-days.

I have a conflicting pattern in the S&P to validate any higher moves at
this stage in the aussie market.

Frank D · 24 November 2009

S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

Short-term reversal pattern down into the Weekly 50% levels by
Tuesday didn’t pan out once price started the trade above 1097.50.

Above the 5-day 50% level and 3-day cycle breakout from Thursday
@ 1097.50, and the markets are back inside the 5-day pattern and following
the Weekly highs once again.

Even though I was waiting for Wednesday to validate if the SPI was going
to continue higher into December, the price action in the S&P on Monday
has answered that.

In the short-term markets look well supported, I just would have
preferred more downside into Tuesday to trade a larger potential swing
from lower support levels.

Frank D · 25 November 2009

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

With a lack of weakness in the US markets over the first 2-days,
the normal cycle would have the SPI rising upwards from these levels
on Wednesday and have a higher Weekly close by Friday.

In the larger timeframe cycles the SPI direction was going to be defined
by the price action in the S&P 500 in the first two days. I mentioned
early last week that if US markets remained supported by Tuesday the
SPI was most likely continue higher coming into December from
Wednesday.

Normally this price action in the SPI would be matched by a mirror image
of the S&P rising up from their Weekly 50% levels and/or 5-day lows
on Tuesday, giving more probable casue and leverage for both markets to
continue up towards the Weekly highs by Friday

Except this isn’t the case, as the S&P 500 continues to trade around
it’s highs coming into Thanksgiving on Thursday and half day Friday.

Trend guide from next week will be the December 50% levels.

Frank D · 27 November 2009

SPI Weekly and S&P 500 Weekly

The price action in the SPI and the S&P 500 were conflicting at the start
of the week.

I was bullish on the SPI if there was a matching pattern in the S&P 500
using a lower Weekly open and support.

That matching pattern will be based on how the S&P reacts the Weekly
50% level this week and Monday’s lower open…(support)

And how the SPI reacts to the December 50% level.( currently
supported @ November 50% level @ 4576

Whilst below the December 50% level next week there is a bias to move down.

If S&P find supports using the Weekly 50% level and lower Weekly
open, which was the original view for any further gains, then the SPI
will most likely find support on the November 50% levels and open above
the December 50% level and push upwards into Friday.

This is a bear pattern to keep an eye out if that occurs

If next week moves upwards and closes on it’s highs on Friday, and the
Week after that, price reverses down and begins trading below
the December 50% level…

Then the SPI will come off and follow the December lows and most
likely continue down into the January lows.

As price goes looking for the Yearly 50% level for 2010

December 50% level is the trend guide in the short-term.

AMT Model & Methodology

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