AMT Model & Methodology

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

Reversal pattern played out from the 5-day highs

Could see buyers appearing around these levels and close higher, as part of the push upwards in April.

But I've also seen further selling into the close after hours on futures
into the gap just to wash out any longs today (3617)

On sidelines next trade tomorrow.

 

[Rockon2]

Thanks for your posts Frank, I'm finding them particularly useful as of late.

CanOz

Same here,,, well done Frank..

 

[Frank D]

SPI Monthly and Weekly

Expectation of an early push upwards in April to make a higher high is
playing out

Text book pattern on a 2 X Monthly move should take the SPI up
towards 3845 (April highs)

First target of 3768 reached in Sycom on Friday, and even though
I have a view of higher prices in April, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a push
back towards the April 50% level from next week.

This is something to keep an eye on, whenever there is a higher Weekly
open and price is trading around Monthly levels and the 5-day highs, price can come back looking for 'Support'.

At this stage a move down into the April 50% level isn’t a probability
pattern next week, but it’s something traders should keep an eye on from next week:- 5-day cross-over patterns

The moves upward from March lows to where price is now have been probability patterns.

If a down move plays out, then things begin to get interesting
around support, as per Weekly Report.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

Friday highs and spiral top selling down from 3759…

If my pattern plays out that this is a short term high (3768) , then
price could make its way towards 3668 (5-day 50% level) as the first
stage of a reversal pattern down into support.

If a higher Weekly close is going to play out, then any selling is viewed as
a single r44 point rotation downward, and that Thursday’s highs
@3710 becomes support and there is a higher push upwards into the
close.

I’ve got no idea which one is going to play out now, just simply trade
the intra-day patterns today, bank the cash and trade again from
Monday.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

Higher weekly open and around 3768 and 5-day levels (3777) hasn’t
resulted in a sell down...

And the SPI hasn’t been able to complete a 44 point range on
Monday: statistical intra-day pattern from resistance

Looks like the April highs @ 3845 will be reached in Sycom or Tomorrow

 

[Cartman]

howdy Frank ---- no input in particular from me, i concentrate on short time frame trading mainly ---- but lately ive been working on a couple of ideas which incorporate the main gist of your methodology, and ive gotta say, its put door knobs on doors i didnt even realise were in the house ---- all i gotta do is furnish the new rooms ive discovered ----

 

[Bobby]

Hey Frank your guess is crook at the moment but you never know ?? Just like to ask why you guru's
need to retail information ?

I'll have a guess now , today will be a downer , go short boys & girls .

Gee if I had a big edge I'd be playing up in paradise , But at least you have the guts to say a figure in the future , better then the Dream sellers

Good on you .

 

[Frank D]

Bobby,

I don’t guess the markets, I trade pattern recognition using support and resistance.

That’s why I said on the 3rd of April….

This is something to keep an eye on, whenever there is a higher Weekly
open and price is trading around Monthly levels and the 5-day highs, price can come back looking for 'Support'.

There was no follow through on the downside on the SPI on Monday so
I covered shorts, but the same pattern that I was looking for in the
SPI played out precisely in the S&P 500.

Trading is all about support-resistance and trends, not about guessing.

S&P Weekly and the 5-day pattern

 

[Bobby]

Frank this is part of what you said yesterday ``

( Re: AMT Model & Methodology )

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Looks like the April highs @ 3845 will be reached in Sycom or Tomorrow

Thats why I made the comment , don't think I'm having a crack at you , like the way you think .

 

[tech/a]

Just like any other form of analysis.

Prove---Disprove.
If (a) doesnt pan out then move to (b) or (c).
Everything is "what if".

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

I’m a discretionary trader who analyses the market based on a number
of different parameters. I’m a chart-reader first and foremost, and then
I trade my view using certain techniques. I don’t haphazardly trade
indicators.

Once I have analyzed the market I then find levels to trade from and
optimise my set-ups on a daily basis

I have no problem ‘guessing’ the market in advance because I’ve seen
all these patterns many times before: - pattern recognition.

Yesterday I was looking for a 44-point reversal in the market which is
a statistical intra-day pattern using resistance and spiral tops, because
it was part of my view this week

Resistance held but my intra-day pattern didn’t fully complete on
Monday.

Today I was still trading the move down as part of my analysis, and
once again using a Spiral Top @ 3757, but this time we have a
44 point reversal completion (money pattern) +35, and I won’t be trading
any longs today;- taken the money and run.


So back to the analysis:-

I’m not bullish around these upper levels in April. My analysis is: -
short-trade below 3768 on a higher Weekly open, as there is an
expectation of a reversal down.

A reversal down can move as far as the Weekly 50% level @
3611…

However, after a 2-day reversal into the 5-day 50% level, if price is back above 3768 then it’s going up towards 3845.

As a day-trader, all i'm interested in is taking 'chunks' out of the ATR. I couldn't give a rats fanny where the market is going.

I don't care if tomorrow goes up or it goes down, I just want to be on
the right side of the move.

Next trade tomorrow.

 

[Bobby]

Good post Frank

Just curious of how you handle chop whilst trying to take those chunks out of the ATR ?

 

[MRC & Co]

Trading is all about support-resistance and trends

Remember writing this down when you first said it many pages ago, I liked it, and I believe it.

 

[MRC & Co]

Remember writing this down when you first said it many pages ago, I liked it, and I believe it.

Infact, here was the core of what I wrote down, after researching and practicing as many methods as I could, it rings true from what I finally concluded:

Trends, Support and Resistance is what the trader needs to focus on, and money management.

If the weekly timeframe closes on its highs or lows I always look for a rotation back into the 3-day lows or highs (swing) trade. I want to sell higher opens and buy lower opens depending on the trend.

I also like trends to develop from lower weekly opens, not higher weekly opens as is the case this week, and I also like major trends to develop from lower Monthly opens, not higher monthly opens, as is the case this month.

As the old adage goes buy low, sell high.

Thx Frank, everything to learn from that simple quote.

 

[Frank D]

I also like major trends to develop from lower Monthly opens, not higher monthly opens.....as the old adage goes buy low, sell high.

And that’s why I said earlier…. I don’t want to be taking positions on
stocks again until around lower prices in May.

April is already trading around higher highs, so there is no point BUYing or
in my case holding longs.

And I want to buy once again around support in a lower
Month.

I’ve got not idea where price will be in May (actually I‘ve got my
suspicion where it will be) but my next long set-up is based on that
simply concept:- buy lower support

I also know that if Price reverses down from these April highs and closes
below the April 50% level by the close of this month, then my buying
levels will be much lower.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

SPI Reversing down from a higher Weekly open towards the Weekly 50%
level @ 3611.

This was confirmed with today’s break of the 5-day 50% level.

Expectation on the break is for price to continue down towards the
5-day lows.

That could happen today, or the SPI might rise up from this spiral low
and retest the break before it continues down, but the market path is
to move lower this week.

Weekly 50% level is a target, and often this level can support the market
if trend is rising upwards.

But analyzing the trend, price is in the process of rotating down
towards higher timeframe 50% levels, and in fact we could have a
top-to-bottom trading week (lower Friday close Random length).

Therefore if you were a swing-position trader, you would wait until
the Weekly timeframe closes on Friday, and then verify any higher
timeframe support using a lower Weekly open next week.

A lower Friday close has a random length, which could easily see the
SPI continue back down into the April 50% level @ 3495.

 

[Trembling Hand]

No trading Friday Frank. Week ends tomorrow.

 

[Frank D]

TH,

I realise that. Easter

I was just pointing out the 'lower Weekly close' and then a 'lower weekly open' patterns using support for swing traders.

cheers, and have a good Easter
Frank

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

Yesterday:- SPI moved down into the Weekly 50% level @ 3611
and has followed the swing back into yesterday’s break:- retest and reject pattern.

If I subscribe to the rejection pattern then the SPI should continue to
move down towards the 5-day lows: - minimum move 41-44 points
from today’s highs.

Rejection pattern is also part of a lower Weekly close:- top-to-bottom close.

If the Weekly 50% level is valid support there could be a higher close or
at least fill the upside gaps in late trading

That can come from price finding support around 3638 and then
swing upwards from a lower spiral point or a break and Hook above
3680.

I’ve modelled two scenarios: - down into the 5-day lows or 44 points.

Or a swing back to close the gaps in late trading

But I’m only trading one:- short @ 3680 because that fits in with the
5-day pattern at this stage.

And I’m not interested I trading longs today, but I know if price moves above 3680
during the trading day shorts are open to risk.

Also a Spiral-Point Low could result in an inside day to close out the week or a higher daily close.

I'm taking the money and running and early Easter break

Happy Easter everyone.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly amd the 5-day patten

SPI moves down from 3680 into 3638.

Buying support off 3638 resulting in an inside trading day to close out
the Week.