AMT Model & Methodology

[Frank D]

SET-UP A:- 4th week reversal back into February's balance point
and then continues down into the lows from next week, as per Weekly
Report.

This often occurs when the market has moved 3 weeks in one direction,
the following week can often close in the opposite direction:- higher Weekly close.

SET-UP B:- There is a 3-week low breakout from last week @
3426, price has come up and is now retesting the break.

This often leads with a higher daily open and a continuation of the
down move as of TODAY, and makes it's way down towards the Weekly
lows later this week.

Wednesday:- 2 plays simply based on 3409

Trading below 3409 and bias is to continue down towards the lower
channels @ 3335, as part of Set-up B.

Above 3409 level results in a 'HOOK' pattern.

3409 becomes support and moves upwards 44 points:-continuing towards
the Weekly 50% levels"

Today started with the higher open selling off from 3426 moving down into
44-point lows. Whilst price was below 3409 the expectation was a continuation down into 3335.

Except the market reversed off its 44 point lows and HOOKed back above 3409.

I was looking for a retest of 3409 for a move towards the highs, expect
the HOOK pattern didn't pan out. That pattern would have provided
the perfect long set-up:- text book pattern.

But once price started to trade above 3426 (previous Weekly lows),
these levels became support :- confirmed with R27 spiral lows rising
upwards.

Now the SPI is capped @ 3464, and ideally I would like to see the SPI
come all the way back down to 3409.

But I don't think that's going to happen, simply because Today has a
bias to close higher, and if it's breaking above 3464 after 3pm there
is probably more upside into the close:- random length.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

SPI completes the higher weekly close, and now there is an expectation
that markets can unwind and continue down towards the February lows.

The most robust pattern would be to see the SPI hit the 3-week highs
and February 50% level....

However, even though the SPI isn't near the February 50% level,
which would provide the most robust reversal down, the Weekly 50%
level can easily do the same thing early next week.

But will also depend on US markets on Friday, and the direction they
take.

Weekly report out tomorrow

 

[Frank D]

SPI Monthly and Weekly


Personally I would like to see the SPI move down over the next 2 weeks
into February's lows to complete the 2-month pattern.

Once that occurs, I'll be looking for a first decent bounce in our market for months:- 25-30%


Weekly reports out now

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

http://austindex.blogspot.com/

DOW and S&P Index Futures

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly

As per Weekly report, I'm bearish on the SPI in February and i'm looking
for lower prices over the next 2 weeks down into Feb's lows.

We have had a push up this week from the 5-day 50% level towards the highs on Tuesday, and now a reversal back down.

Depends on what US markets do on Tuesday and where the SPI opens tomorrow (back above the 5-day 50% level)... .

But below the 5-day 50% level and price will be back below all timeframe
50% levels which favours further weakness.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly

As per Yesterday's view and today's Premium report...

Below 3469 and price was moving down into Wednesday's lows @ 3386...

Completing the precise bottom.

Looking for more weakness down over this coming week.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

This week the SPI has followed out a number of 'text book'
patterns.

From the expectation of an early rise upwards to a reversal back down
into Wednesday-Thursday's lows.

And now with today's 'top', there is now the expectation price will
continue downwards, as part of the Monthly trend using Spiral-Point
trading and the 5-day pattern.

I'm expecting another move down next week:- 2 weeks down in
February's lows

However, if US markets move up on Friday then the SPI is back above
the Weekly 50% level which could actually see the SPI back towards
the last week's highs once again:- 3571

It’s not part of my view just yet, but I’ll certainly adjust to it based on
the price action in the US.

 

[Frank D]

S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

I had a feeling US markets were moving higher on Friday, simply based on
the S&P and Thursday’s Daily HOOK over the Weekly 50% level,
which normally leads to a higher Friday close.

Which puts the SPI back around last week’s highs.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

I’d be more than happy to see the SPI continue to consolidate around these levels for the next few weeks or months, as it has been doing.

If it’s around the 5-day extremes it rotates back towards the central zones.

And if it HOOKS over the 5-day 50% level it Thrusts outward towards the extremes of the 5-day range.

Trade on the side of the levels and Spiral points.

 

[Frank D]

BHP Monthly and Weekly

The last time I mentioned BHP was based on the January 50% level,
the Weekly close, but then how the following week reacted to those
support levels @ $27.56

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6588&page=19#379

BHP has continue higher and has moved back into Fair value levels @
33.60

These levels are major resistance zones on BHP and are often clearly
define the Primary and Secondary trend:- Yearly & Quarterly.

Price has reversed into the higher time 50% levels, and now I would look
for a long term rejection pattern downward.

The first step on any reversal down will be price trading below the
Weekly 50% levels.

The 2nd stage would then need to break the monthly 50% levels, and
that’s going to take some time.

What’s going to push BHP lower, namely commodity prices.

Things begin to change if BHP starts trading above $33.60 and begins
to consolidate above it....

but I’m looking for a double bottom pattern that matches 2008 lows before any new long term UP trend begins.

 

[Frank D]

DOW Monthly


DOW completes the 2-month thrust pattern down from January’s 50% level into February’s lows:- Dilernia Principle

I mentioned at the start of February that a move down into the
February lows in the first 2 weeks of the month has the potential to
reverse upwards 25-30%.

The completion into 7250 is occurring at the end of the 3rd week.

We have three scenarios….

SET-UP A:- reversal off the February lows next week back into
the March 50% level and then continues the down, as it follows the
Primary cycles into lower levels.

SET-UP B:- for any 25-30% reversal to occur, the last week needs
to bounce and swing back towards 8280 over the next 5 days.

If that occurs then there is the view of a slight push higher in March
to complete the remaining percentage move.

At this stage it’s occurring a bit late in the month for me to be confident
that SET-UP B is going to play out.

Set-up B is a retest of the 3-month highs in March and then the
market continues down into lower lows in the 2nd Quarter.

SET-UP C:- fails to hold February’s lows and continues down
in another breakout pattern, similar to October in 2008.

Regardless of any bounce off these support levels in
February, or even if Set-up B occurs, US markets are going lower in
2009, as they need to complete the Primary target in the low 6000’s

 

[Frank D]

SPI & DOW Futures Monthly


Two days to go until the end of the month, and the SPI still hasn’t
reached the monthly lows in February, whilst the DOW has and is
currently being supported.

With the shift in timeframes next month, US markets will more than
likely follow the Move down into the March lows, which match the
first Quarter lows.

If US markets continue down this will more than likely result in a
breakout pattern in the Australian market of the monthly lows and
continue down towards the Yearly lows @ 2770 and as far as
2606.

These patterns fit in with my overall view of 2009 continuing down
towards the Yearly lows.

Trend guide are the Monthly 50% levels.

If the SPI had reach February’s lows in the first two weeks there could
can been a probable move towards the March highs before continuing
down, but all roads are pointing SOUTH and completing the Yearly lows in
the next couple of months.

 

[Frank D]

DOW S&P Monthly

US markets moving down into March Lows, which are starting to align
with the 2009 Yearly lows


http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/2009/02/dow-s-weekly-28th-february-2009.html

Begin to look for some support coming into the market this week with
some confirming patterns (5-day 50% level cross over).

Any upside and February lows (blue channels) would be seen as
resistance for the first couple of weeks.....

With a possibility that a swing towards the March 50% level
could take place, but that won't happen until nearing the end of this
month if lucky.

Note:- Currently price action is in a Thrust pattern moving from
the 50% levels towards the extremes over Time, as it follows the Primary Trend and cycles
towards the lows.

If March lows can't hold and there is another Crash pattern, as was the case
in January and September 2008:- then those new
lows in the 2nd quarter imo finally mark the end of this down
move for 2009.

 

[Frank D]

Financial Index

Hit March lows and completes the first Quarter down move.

Major support around these lows @ 2845 in March

There is one larger Trend (Yearly) pointing down to 2500 on the
Financial Index.

This will align with my 2nd quarter pattern and the completion of the
Yearly lows for 2009.

2nd Quarter 50% level resistance.

 

[Frank D]

BHP...

As per Previous view on BHP:- expectation that BHP should continue
down towards the Yearly lows in 2009, after stalling and reversing
down from the 50% level.

March lows Random support @ $24.50 with the view BHP can remain
range bound between March lows and March 50% level.

The closer it comes to the end of March the Support levels will shift lower,
as per of the larger trend down.

Note:- March lows are random support, which means that there is
a larger trend which suggests lower prices.

Text book patterns would be to move downward over the coming
months until the 2009 lows are reached, as price follows the markets
based on Time.

Even though there is an expectation of support, March lows can break.

Therefore any breakout of March lows with a Monthly close below is
viewed as resistance, with a downward Primary trend into the lows.

 

[Frank D]

DOW and S&P Weekly


US markets moved down into the March lows and completed the first
stage of a reversal pattern Today with the move into the 5-day 50% level.

Once around the 5-day 50% level sellers hit both markets late once the day session closed.

There hasn't been a cross over of the 5-day 50% level, but I would focus
on using intra-day support levels on Thursday looking for continuation of a
3-day up move back towards the 5-day highs by Friday.

Probably reaching the Weekly 50% level by next week (Next Week's 50%).

Note:- these are still not the lows of the market, just the current lows within this timeframe.

 

[Frank D]

S&P Monthly and 5-day pattern

S&P has reached the March lows @ 699 with late Buying on
Friday.

Any up trend will be dependant once again on the 5-day 50% level, as
was the case at the first support zone on Tuesday but Wednesday’s
5-day 50% level rejected the market breaking support the next day.

Thursday and Friday followed the market path each day into their 5-day
lows.

Next Week:- If US markets are going to remain supported over
the next few weeks, Friday's lows were the most robust support zones in the
medium term.

We could move into another 4 weeks of support with a rotation up
from these levels next week, or continue down in another breakout
pattern sometime this month as it continues down.

The first stage of any reversal upwards would be price heading higher
from 695, which will be confirmed by the 5-day 50% level,

But the Weekly 50% level next week is going to let trader’s know how
robust these support levels are, and whether there is a rotation towards
the monthly 50% levels once again.

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/2009/03/dow-s-weekly-7th-march-2009.html



These are still not the lows for 2009.

 

[Frank D]

S&P Monthly and Weekly

Precise double monthly low pattern on the S&P @ 669.

First sign of a reversal pattern was the break of 695, which aligned with
the 5-day 50% level and a rally into the 5-day highs.

There is a view of higher prices this month, but I would look at the
market stalling around the Weekly 50% level.

The ideal pattern would be to see a down move from a higher Daily
open back into 695 over 1-2 days and then continue higher from a
lower Daily open using 695 as support.

There are still lower prices to go in 2009, but March looks well supported
at this stage and due for a counter-trend move upwards.

 

[Frank D]

S&P Weekly and DOW 5-day pattern

View were for the US markets to rotate back down over 1-2 days
into support before any potential up move would continue.

This was after the move down into the March lows and the expectation
that price would reverse upwards.

Wednesday reversed down from the highs into the 50% level :- random support (1 day).

We have two plays on Thursday:-

Set-up A:- rises up from support hits the Weekly 50% level once again and then reverses back down ;- 2nd day.

Set-up B:- rises up from support and continues towards
Thursday’s highs:- not a 2nd day reversal.

Therefore even though I have a view of a 2nd down day, I have a view
that support can push the markets higher into a 2 pattern play:- adjust to the market.

Break of support and it’s part of the 2nd day pullback, which hopefully
lines up with lower support around 695 on the S&P on Friday.

 

[Frank D]

DOW and S&P 5-day patterns

US markets rising up from support and back into the Weekly 50% level.

Partial exit at these levels, run breakeven stops from entry...

Wake up tomorrow and it's either Around Thursday's highs, or follows the
2-day reversal pattern back down.

K.I.S.S.

 

[Frank D]

S&P Monthly and 5-day pattern

US markets continue with the reversal up from March lows and
heading towards the Monthly 50% level.

Thursday provided a nice long trade into Thursday's highs, as part of
the reversal upwards, along with a breakout of Thursday's highs.

This puts a Friday range high aligning with February's lows @ 765.

We will have a fair idea how robust this reversal is from the March lows
by price action next week.

Robust reversal should continue towards the March 50% level by next
week, with the potential to continue higher this month or from April.

Not so robust:- would be US markets failing to move much higher than
the February lows over the next 2 weeks and consolidating below into
April.

If this is the case, then more than likely the trend will resume down in
the
2nd Quarter.