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America a Failed State and a Rogue State to the rest of the World

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InsvestoBoy said:
Fed and other CBs have no idea how the modern financial system operates
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I would of course totally agree with what you have said.
The CB ... requires banks to hold assets and bonds, it is ... well ... more complex when they go buy rubbish with low rating and swap it for a note that the CB accepts as capital on their requirements of reserves.

Not only a duration swap ... buy a 30 year bond and give say a 3 week note or 6 month one ... the CB is taking on the DURATION risk ... the CREDIT risk and in effect skewing the whole yield curve and time value of money. USA Treasury issues bonds to finance its long term debt .... Central bank walks along and buys it off a bank ... negating any issuing effect or cover other than basically the USA having no real long term funding.

Strange world ... as I said ... it works ... till it does not.
As to currency ... supporting it. The US fed has no ammo and no assets and virtually no tools to control this side of the equation. Normal one is to raise rates to stop capital outflow and in effect pay for it.

This ponzi scheme has held together ... barely post GFC ... but given the global demand for more money and debt and deficits, the game is going to get interesting as time winds on. Lending to the USA federal govt with likely 30 trill in debt and I dont count social security as an asset as its underfunded 30 trillion. So USA fed debt 30 trillion GDP shrinks a bit to say 20 ... that's 150% debt to GDP but at best and adding another 3.5 trill it still holds of GFC junk and say a NET 3 trill more CV19 .... 36.5 trill debt verses 20 trill GDP is well 182.5% debt to GDP and against this it has, well income federally of 3 trillion on a GDP of 20 trillion so 15% income verses 182.5% Debt and its going to try and spend 2 trillion more than is coming in every year.

Amusing ... but a failed state does this stuff.

What occurs ... bonds collapse ... or currency ... is unknown. China once held 1.3 trill and was told it could only have USA treasuries ... about 10 years ago. Its GDP has doubled, trade imbalance tripled with the USA and its holdings of USA junk ? Whoops treasuries is a mere 1 trillion.

Makes my head hurt thinking about this and predicting what the hell they try and pull ... post CV19 and 2020 is, well ... a one way street. Other nations actually collect tax .... give a stuff about their population and well ... bond investors are not stupid over time.

We shall see of course.
 
Interesting Run down Kahuna and Insev

What is the best and worst case guess guys as to a likely outcome.
As the GFC's CV19 etc come along every x years its likely
that we will see 2 or 3 in the next 30 years
there has to be a time where saturation occurs.

Can the Debt be written off?
Partially if not all.
Can there be a reset--re value
 

Short/medium term I do believe the likely outcome is that dollar shortage "spasms", like 2008, 2011, 2014-16 and 2019 keep occurring, and outside of US tech stocks, most markets are priced accordingly.

I do believe in the long term there will be an eventual reset where the accumulated debt which is impossible to repay in real terms, will be repaid in nominal terms with inflated currency. I don't think this event can be timed which is why I keep a hefty chunk of my net worth in physical gold.

But I think we are a long way off of that yet, because:
1. There is no real alternative today to the system as it is.
2. There is no recognition by those with the power to change the system that the system is broken or even requires changing.

Thus the existing system will continue to limp along, progressively losing limbs as it steps on dollar landmines until both of those things change.
 
jbocker said:
Gee Tech
if GFC and the Virus weren't RESET buttons, then I don't f'know what is! I am starting to conjure very frightening thoughts!
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It's a house of cards.
The USA aces it by being holding world's "reserve" currency.
To me the issue is how long can they retain this mantle, as they have accelerated losing it by not doing what China did in locking down their nation to COVID-19 as soon as practicable. Many years ago I thought the Euro was in with a chance, but too many nations within it are effectively bankrupt.
Anyhow, while the USA retains its reserve status, other nations will keep propping it up by buying their increasingly worthless bonds.
 
rederob said:
It's a house of cards.

.. other nations will keep propping it up by buying their increasingly worthless bonds.
Click to expand...
oh no, that's not the case. By late March, it was on for young and old. They're buying their own!!

The Fed pledged to buy as much government-backed debt as needed to bolster the markets for housing and Treasury bonds. It announced that it would buy corporate bonds, including the riskiest investment-grade debt, for the first time in its history
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tech/a said:
What is the best and worst case guess guys as to a likely outcome.
Click to expand...

Honestly .... to give any prediction there is a lot more needed to be known about CV19.

Top of my list is vaccine. If its even possible ?
How long does immunity last ?
How long till vaccine ?

USA abdicated the world ... in WW1 and only joined late.
In WW2 ... same thing and not till Pearl Harbor.

This ... CV19.
USA just told the world to get stuffed.
In this ... untried drugs being pushed, scientifically insane policies being pushed.

Rest of the world and USA is a mere 5% of it ... banded together for a joint vaccine .
Raised 8.2 billion USD.

USA did not even turn up.
This policy of isolation ... belief they are the only inventors and if they did get a vaccine, well ... it would be USA first and the rest of the world last.

There are troubling signs the virus is able to be ... caught again and again. Any vaccine is tough but the paramount question is ... like say Measles ... once you get it your immune for life. Its unlikely this vaccine if even possible will be the same.

The whole outlook ... could be no vaccine .... or one that works ok for say 12 months, one that maybe only for say 50% immunity and worse for older people say at 25%.

IF this is the case, and it seems likely it will be latter rather than sooner and possibly not the vaccine we expect, well then its down to maybe anti viral agents if you get sick ? Or prophylactics to protect against getting infected and these take even longer.

USA not only did not participate in a global effort for a vaccine for 7.5 billion people, ITS TYING to destroy the effort. Actively trying to destroy it for USA companies gains. De-funding the WHO ... which is WORLD ... and USA was a part of the world ... what a joke. Its a disgrace and USA should be ashamed. It is NOT.

Its contribution to the 8.2 Billion USD for a vaccine research and testing was ? ZERO ... USA contributed ZERO .... meanwhile trying to destroy the WHO.

A Rouge State does not even come close to what I am thinking.

I can say with high confidence no anti viral is much good being tested right now. The one USA claimed worked ... the malaria drug actually had a negative impact. Gilead's drug, Remdesivir does not work and I will elaborate latter with facts, studies and well .. the insane ... totally insane USA policy of corruption.

USA gave the rich another tax cut late 2019 .... in the budget via overseas stolen tax ... in the first aid package aimed at the rich and big companies ... another tax cut ... 90 billion a year relief for the top 1% and its not caring about people dying ... its trying to do it bloody well again.

Not a conspiracy theory, its fact. Sad fact.

Hence the resilience of the USA market ....

Without these questions answered about the virus, everything and I mean everything is up in the air.

If you get it ... are you immune ? Its now very clear the antibody tests are USELESS ... because they get false positives and the receptors that claim you have it, do not create antibodies and it could be you had the normal Flu and its going yes ... positive. Different test ... anti body verses actual infected.

This, back to work .... USA ...
Magic rallies as we saw today 2% off the lows for USA and this is whilst they are asleep ? Total BS.

If no vaccine ... or partial vaccine or partial immunity or as I suspect likely 2-3 years till a vaccine fully deployed .... well .... things are grim for USA.

Put Aust and NZ to one side. We MAY ... be lucky. Evil thing CV19 and its gestation period can vary and being spread asymptomatic ... showing no symptoms or even feeling ill .. then your body looses the battle and it becomes full blown ... 6 weeks latter ? So so hard to get to zero.

USA ... well ... they are not even bothering to test in any serious way.
Test they do .... 10% are coming back positive.
USA 10%
Italy 2%
Spain 2%
Germany 1%
Aust and NZ 0.1%

Eu nations locked down for 50 days on the main ... forget idiots in Sweden. Nice girls but, well ... stupid.

Comparing USA to Germany ... one with massive contact tracing and 10 times LESS cases ... whilst not optimal to go back to work, and they want cases under 200 a day for 80 million plus .... so some ways to go ... USA is no where near this.

Cruelty of this would be if you can get it again ... and again ... its like the common flu.
Each year, RNA virus's always mutate and a new version but 10 times as deadly as the flu.

Given the corruption of the USA healthcare system and Trump is still pushing even the Malaria drug which killed 11 people .... I hold no hopes or not high hopes that direction.

That, with hundreds of institutions globally ... universities and bio companies and vaccine makers striving to get a vaccine or an anti viral to make the thing even half as deadly with few side effect ... takes time.

USA under its rulers, Obama, Bush and Clinton and so on .... over the years ...slashed funding for public health and safety and ignored and again cut funding global efforts, trying now to destroy the World Health Organization ... the first word being the operative one, its role in the UN is ... well ... sabotage ... not fund or worse in every area from Climate issues, to war crimes to world vaccinations to emergency food aid and so on.

USA has ... well just told the other 7.2 billion ... get stuffed on CV19. Much like it did to the 330 mullion people minus say 100k who ... well matter.

Too many questions with no answers. None of them encouraging despite the market looking fine, reality is USA has sailed upon a course that ensures destruction.

ENSURES.

Infections will ebb and wain and rise and fall. Giving your people no choice but to go back to work, not allowing or even paying 25% of the unemployment claims and now 44 out of 50 states are back to work ?

USA compared to Germany is 10 times if not 50 times ... due to lack of testing and contact tracing more behind. Compared to Australia and NZ ... at 0.1% of tests positive or USA getting 100 times MORE positives and since its very infected it should minimum be testing DOUBLE of not triple ...

USA is assured, sadly assured I suspect of 1,000 deaths a day in2020 ... so my top end of 500,000 deaths so Trump can ... well .. claim victory ?

This risks, well ... total collapse of society. Will Trump try war with China ? Or confiscating their bonds ? Swine flu which killed a similar amount came from USA. Whilst China ... dealing with a new virus had no idea what it was and came totally clean or ... well more clean on the 19th January 2020 and WHO sent out on the 20th a panicked release then more and more so till the 30th Jan 2020 emergency, re-writing history or a revisionist propaganda to cover up sheer stupidity gets us no where.

It came from a bat !! No matter what we did, it would spread and some nations did a lot better and Canada which has 3 times the overseas visitors ... well its HALF the deaths and HALF the cases NOW and likely it will be a much smaller fraction of Trumps death toll.

Minimum as I said 128k deaths June 30th 2020 for USA and 1.7 million estimate infected or reported for USA.

They did update their models a few days after I said this.

Minimum and its seems stupid 250k deaths by end of 2020 for USA ... I revise this as more than likely DOUBLE that ... DOUBLE and 500k deaths by end of 2020.

Why ? Well I am sure you have seen the idiot protestors with guns in Michigan and Trump egging them on via twitter, the Fox news along with Murdoch media diminishing the virus. We have Sky news here and the Awful Australian and some other rags ...

The virus ... loves idiots !!
Love love loves them ... to DEATH.

I have too many questions and no answers. None of them good. If anything getting worse as the idiots in states say like Georgia with rising infections and everything is open again ? Or Florida which rejected most claims for unemployment and basically people are starving ...

This, dwarfs any crisis of the past. Forget other puny terrorist threats.
Strangely the more likely your to be infected and that being poor and of color or just poor whites with awful medical cover, the more likely you are to be in the USA needing to work and work in high contact jobs.

Perfect ... your hairdresser ... living with 16 others in a house, your server on $3.40 an hour plus tips ... cough cough as she collects your food. on and on and on ...

I am being serious, not worried too much about Australia, but where is the USA in November with zero chance of a vaccine ? Who has Trump ashed out at ?

As someone mentioned on this thread, who catches it in the meantime ?

I wish it was not so, but sadly it is. Not being alarmist, but it appears, and its becoming clearer the new strain of the virus that spreads more rapidly is even harder to get a vaccine for.

Airplanes with seating for 100 with 20 passengers ?

Time will tell and patience is a virtue. I am not about to rush back into, well ... what appears to be not a good situation. Unless I get paid to take on risk and buy something with a moat for safety or in the case of shares a lot lower than here, I will take my missing the boat this time around.

Sorry no answers, just questions and ones that for me cut to the issue.
I dont care the USA is going back to work. Unless your insane, things like Cinemas will remain vacant, Las Vegas will have 20 % if that occupancy, I note Cruise liners selling tickets for August ? To where ? No other nation will let them in !! Mexico wants a wall NOW ... to keep the infected OUT.

Structurally ... its possible the foundations of the whole society are built upon a sinkhole. When will Australia let overseas visitors back in ? Migrants ? Overseas students ?

Not many in finance have even thought this out. Some exceptions of course.

Some sadly always predicting the end of the world and I find myself for the 3rd time in 21 years, not predicting the end of it, but ... extremely concerned and demanding ... DEMANDING ... if people want my money ... I demand a much greater risk premium and lower prices I pay for assets.

Some I would not touch, never do. Just too hard. Media and Airlines ... biotech without any drugs in testing ...

For now, happy with where I am on things asset wise.
 
UK has done if anything worse.

30,000 deaths ... so without modelling ... say 50k by June 2020 .... 100 k by end of 2020 ?

Herd immunity looks likely a myth with the new strain ... you get NO immunity or partial ... at best.

USA and UK look equally stupid. Strange the convict colony seems to be doing well.
 
Dona Ferentes said:
oh no, that's not the case. By late March, it was on for young and old. They're buying their own!!
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A large slab of US debt has been bought by overseas entities:

Hopefully the trend of recent years will see it drop from a third to a quarter, and continue lower.
 
↑Hi Red
I am not ultra tech so forgive for my bumbling but what I find interesting is

https://www.epainassist.com/infections/which-countries-have-malaria

Compared to

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

but I am probably wrong

You mean interesting in what way?

Well in my clumsy way I was just comparing countries with high population density and poor sanitation etc were to be hit hardest with Covid........ however it appears at this stage Countries like India, Pakistan Indonesia, Nigeria etc who have been dealing with malaria for years have been fairing pretty well.

bux
 
kahuna1 said:
Honestly .... to give any prediction there is a lot more needed to be known about CV19.

Top of my list is vaccine. If its even possible ?
How long does immunity last ?
How long till vaccine ?
Click to expand...
Assuming a vaccine is developed, producing it at necessary scale will not be easy for lots of reasons.
It will also be interesting to see how distribution is prioritised as 6-7 billion shots won't be produced overnight!
 
Currently there seems no rhyme or reason as to who gets hardest hit or why, especially with regard to death rates.
In terms of population density, you would expect Singapore and Hong Kong to have copped it hard. Instead we have New York City, which is slightly less dense.
Then we have France next door to Germany, but Germany's death rate is a quarter that of France - go figure.
It's interesting that you picked up on the community health infrastructure that exists in third world countries. I reckon you are on to something there.
 
rederob said:
A large slab of US debt has been bought by overseas entities:

Hopefully the trend of recent years will see it drop from a third to a quarter, and continue lower.
Click to expand...

There is no way the US debt can be "repaid" in any conventional sense. It is now out of control and if our current economic models are employed there can only be mass destruction of the currency and economy.

The other option which sidesteps this fate is formal adoption of Modern Monetary Theory. Given the current option I think there is no choice.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Monetary_Theory
 

Part of the reason a learned friend told me of the difference in rates of coronavirus can be put down to the following
  • If you cannot or don't test for it you will not find it. Many countries like USA, UK, India didn't
  • Italians live longer, thus more older people, a susceptible age group, died.
  • Spain and Italy do not have the social reserve of Commonwealth countries, hugging, kissing etc. a sure fire way to spread it.
  • Not many people in poorer countries in Africa live beyond 60, if hunger don't get you HIV will.
  • Although it is present in poo it mostly spreads by cough via surfaces to the next one. Indians wash.
  • Many countries underestimate the rates because the head honcho may get lynched if they do
  • The USA is not a country to get sick in if you are poor or out of a job, medical insurance ceases then.
  • Any country that was late in social isolation lockdown got it. Australia and NZ avoided a bullet by just 2 weeks.
gg
 
In countries like India , Pakistan, Bangladesh, people just die in the streets and are buried/cremated without autopsy so you would never know if they died of covid or not.

The death rate in these countries would be seriously underestimated.
 
rederob said:
Assuming a vaccine is developed, producing it at necessary scale will not be easy for lots of reasons.
It will also be interesting to see how distribution is prioritised as 6-7 billion shots won't be produced overnight!
Click to expand...

USA does not care ... its abdicated its role as any leader of the world. It is a Rogue state. Its deliberately trying to sabotage any and all efforts of the rest of the world.

Strong words ... but true.

As to vaccine 3 different types of things they are trying. Some very hard to mass produce, others easier.

If we get a valid vaccine ... and this is a big if ... how is it delivered ? Easiest is via orally or patch ... injection harder and if one needs more than one shot to get immunity.

It is looking, likely ... longer and harder. That is even if there is an IF ?

Then we get the anti vaccine nutters and well ... Sweden good luck !!

I have no idea and speculation when ... is not possible other than knowing without TIME and that being stage 1,2 3 and 4 clinical trials which no matter what take time ... the end is likely at best say 8 months away. So early 2021 ? likely longer ... and sadly possibly never.

What happens in the meantime ? Restaurant with 50% capacity ? For overseas mind you. If we manage to eradicate it .. different story for Australia. Planes idle for 12- 18 months likely longer till its deployed and manufactured and administered globally.

The contempt and sheer condescending nature of the USA leadership right now is astounding. Likely 500k deaths ? Golly. When they get a vaccine ... its USA USA first and F everyone else ?

Strange but I suspect another nation, China or Germany or Australia or Japan are not the spastics the USA seems to think we are. One would be foolish and stupid not to expect the 95% of the rest of the world NOT to be able to produce a vaccine PRIOR to the USA.

I sound anti USA, I am not, just their leadership by a few and Kleptocracy or Oligarchy coupled with extreme arrogance and contempt for all other life outside say 50,000 who matter in the USA. I scream for all the people of USA who will, sadly loose their lives in the meantime.
 
kahuna1 said:
USA does not care ... its abdicated its role as any leader of the world. It is a Rogue state. Its deliberately trying to sabotage any and all efforts of the rest of the world.
Click to expand...

Under the current leadership that is true. I doubt if the majority of the population feel that way, they want their respectability back.
 

May I ask you @kahuna1 to say what aspects of American life and culture you find good and admirable. I'll ask the same of @finicky in a similar thread damning China.

gg
 
SirRumpole said:
Under the current leadership that is true. I doubt if the majority of the population feel that way, they want their respectability back.
Click to expand...

Sadly this has been going on for a long time. USA was once great. It went to the moon. In the 1920's it was the center of the industrial world.

The will of the people, is ... well ... in a failed democracy irrelevant. Free press ? Your called communist or socialist for wanting universal healthcare.

With no valid free press .. one not motivated by advertising, such as the BBC or ABC as annoying as they are at times, and with lobbyists running affairs its got there over 40 years ...

Will not change overnight.

Its actions globally has as mentioned been ... self interest. As are all nations to some extent. WW1 until Lusitania was sunk, USA did not get involved. ....

CV19, is for the world as dire a threat as any war.

Lobbyists, CEO's ... billionaires and self interest runs the USA.

Strange thing, with 1.3 million infected, every single person will know someone infected in the USA when the dust settles. With 330 million, that's about 500k ... for someone to know ... someone who has been hit. Whilst they may not be a bestie or family, by the end of 2020 if I am not mistaken 500k will be dead and say 3.5 million infected with the more serious form of the virus.

Things will change over time, upon reflection and no amount of Trump or corporate media will change it.

Yes send them back to work ... cough cough .... here is your sandwich. IDIOT. This course is already sailing for them.

Enough will be altered in habits to, well make any recovery ,... anemic and possibly a total collapse of society. You can make them work, you cant order them to risk their lives and go to the cinema or get on a plane or go to Vegas or take a cruise.

Certainly some will. Massive far right religious types who deny science and that VP Pence a very serious bible basher and believes the world was created in 7 days leading the task force was, is ... and will always be a sick joke. Surgeon General same ... Dr Birx same .... Aids is gods will !! CDC and NIH led by similar people, political appointees who, well ... are fruitcakes.

USA is not the rest of the world thankfully. This is their fate. USA voted for it, that's what they have. Possibly even in 2020. Not sure given the Trump record. Then again for the religious right, as long as your anti abortion which Dr Birx the stupid woman with the scarves is and anti gays ... all is forgiven. Then we have the die hard always Republicans and well democrats are very similar ... will only ever vote for one party even when led by a moron.

Biden is no better. He plans no change to Bezos not paying tax, no changes to their healthcare system and already has 87 billionaires backing him and a pledge from one, Bloomberg to chip in a billion to get him elected.

Nope ... change ... always must be fought for and is never given willingly. I dont mean armed conflict, but ... change takes effort and sadly, if pushed I suspect the CV19 vaccine at best is 18 months away so that's ... well ... 500 days or so. Till then ... maybe its a million dead. Many whilst recovered have shredded organs and lungs and emerging issues with strange side effects.

I dont expect any change 2020 elections ... whether its Trump again or Biden. If Trump were to be elected again, well ... I think maybe we should all start looking upon USA as some nutty dictator nation.

I know the EU with 400 million is looking at them that way. UK is led by a similar person and whilst he will parrot Trump, unlikely he with say 100 k dead and that's if he is lucky, on a par with USA, I am not sure the UK will put up with him and vote anyone .... anyone ... rather than Boris.

USA rules world markets and equity values and finance, for now. Its actions pre and post GFC were the opposite of virtually every nation and so too with this virus. They thankfully do not rule Australia or NZ or any other nation than the USA.

Trump actually tells his 70 million followers on twitter the world now respects the USA. Fox tells all its followers USA is now respected globally and a leader.

They actually believe it and well ... even with diabolical numbers they are congratulating themselves on not having a worlds worst result. I doubt any nation actually is not looking with horror at the actions of them right now.

Like the death-toll ... his ratings are huge globally, but not for a good reason. When your that mentally disturbed its not possible for you to understand others or compassion or empathy. Its all about them, ME ME ME ... and they are the victim. Not the 74,000 dead, nor the million or more infected, its about their pain ... their needs.

USA is somewhat, ignoring Trump, run for the few and needs of the few and bugger the rest.

Only way to deal with sociopaths and narcissists is to ignore them, ban them from the media and ... ignore their noise. One day I love you ... next I hate you ... lets get married .... I want to kill you. Trump is sadly this way.

Ban all mentions of Trump in media and he would go berserk. He is ignored already at G7 and G20 ... why not just DON'T invite him ... G7 minus USA .... G19 ...

Maybe a special meeting for him .... with actors like a children's table at a party. Or since he has played 249 days of golf so far, get him playing golf when the actual meetings and votes are going on ? Not that the USA is going to offer anything positive for the world. Quite the opposite. Last G7 he insisted the communique called the virus the Wuhan Virus and as such no communique was released. Same at most other global meeting of late.

CV19 was fake ... So too climate change and in Madrid, USA sent no one ... well sent Australia to sabotage it. We burnt down after that so not sure we will do it again. Then again Morrison took a lump of coal into parliament not so long ago.
 
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