AMC - Amcor Limited

[swingstar]

Swingstar,
what is the clear close price be in your analysis? I always think if AMC is above 7.4 it is quite safe to short. Its been struggling around 7.3 -7.45 for some time now...

Remember to do your own research, but I won't think of shorting AMC until I can see a decent trend forming. This may not be until it's below $7.20. Right now it's indicating to me a possible reversal, but it hasn't reversed yet, and may not for all I know.

 

[Realist]

Remember to do your own research, but I won't think of shorting AMC until I can see a decent trend forming. This may not be until it's below $7.20. Right now it's indicating to me a possible reversal, but it hasn't reversed yet, and may not for all I know.

Well $7.21 now, man I timed my sell perfectly - very happy!

The main reason as I see it is BPC were rumoured to be wanting to takeover AMC, but BPC have since bought a Canadian paper company. so a takeover ain gonna happen, and the premium that was there is now going.

So AMC will drift down to the norm of a PE around 15 - so they may lose another 5% or so and then stay there for a while.

I'd value AMC at about $6.80 based on current earnings and the fact they are not expecting any growth!

 

[swingstar]

It's definitely high on my watchlist.

 

[imaginator]

swingstar have u started shorting this?

 

[swingstar]

swingstar have u started shorting this?

I am short.

Start of a new channel?

 

[imaginator]

ive been shorting it too, since 7.2. U were right, at 7.2, the downtrend became very stable. 1 week before that I entered at 7.45, 7.35, but it was erratic, down, then up, then down...

U really taught me a valuable lesson, to wait for confirmation of a trend!
thanks!

 

[swingstar]

ive been shorting it too, since 7.2. U were right, at 7.2, the downtrend became very stable. 1 week before that I entered at 7.45, 7.35, but it was erratic, down, then up, then down...

U really taught me a valuable lesson, to wait for confirmation of a trend!
thanks!

It's definitely a good idea for reversals, but for already established trends I prefer to buy in the dips.

Hopefully we'll see Amcor right back down to the $6.40 area, but I expect a few counter trends on the way, especially around $6.80-7.00.

 

[Realist]

I would not short AMC.

It is farily valued as is, the downtrend was merely cause the takeover rumours subsided. $7.00 is a fair valuation considering it is a solid company that makes profits, pays good dividends and has a lowish PER - it in my opinion can not drop much further, and may in all possibility go back to $7.50 soon.

The most you could make in my opinion is a drop from $7.00 to about $6.40. Not worth it considering it may rise 60c just as easily.

 

[imaginator]

argh they issued a report and the price all over the place now

 

[swingstar]

I would not short AMC.

It is farily valued as is, the downtrend was merely cause the takeover rumours subsided. $7.00 is a fair valuation considering it is a solid company that makes profits, pays good dividends and has a lowish PER - it in my opinion can not drop much further, and may in all possibility go back to $7.50 soon.

The most you could make in my opinion is a drop from $7.00 to about $6.40. Not worth it considering it may rise 60c just as easily.

A fall from 7.25ish (where I got in) to $6.40 is a 11% drop. Long ATM put options, that's about a 800% return on (my) risk, which is very good for a trade that I feel comfortable with.

 

[imaginator]

should have shorted somemore when it jumped to 7.15 this morning!
now 6.96

but anyway, "come on down amc!"

 

[swingstar]

Tomorrow will be interesting... I wonder whether the high today is all the resistance this downtrend has in it. If so look out below.

I read the announcement... sounded quite negative in the short-term.

 

[imaginator]

Amcor considers further plant closures

Wednesday October 25, 2006, 4:30 pm



Global packager Amcor Ltd is considering further asset sales and plant closures over the next 12 months as it battles rising input costs and higher energy prices.

Chief executive Ken MacKenzie said it would be some time before a recent decline in fuel prices is reflected in the raw material prices and energy costs the company incurs.

Amcor has a three year plan to cut costs and has so far this year closed three plants in Australia.

Mr MacKenzie, speaking after the company's annual general meeting, said Amcor still had to identify further plants for closure and repeated the group's plan to divest between $500 million to $1 billion of assets.

"We are one year into it and we have divested $420 million of assets ... so we have between $80 million and $580 million to go," he said.

Mr MacKenzie said it was a good time to be a seller of assets.

"There are still the normal structural buyers in the industry and there is now the private equity community also looking, so there is big pool of people who can compete for assets you are selling," he said.

Mr MacKenzie told shareholders the current market environment for packaging included short term negatives that will impact Amcor's earnings in the first half.

But he said Amcor was confident of the upside potential of the business over the medium term.

"Despite the current environment, which has some short term negative issues impacting earnings particularly in this first half, we are confident in the upside potential in the business over the medium term and our ability to grow earnings and improve shareholder value," he said.

But Mr MacKenzie shied away from giving first half profit guidance, citing volatility in input and energy costs.

"We're still not giving any guidance because it's still quite volatile out there in terms of energy costs and raw material costs," he told journalists after the meeting.

"They are the factors outside our control. What we did say today clearly was that we are broadly in line where we said we would be in August at the full year result.

"Once some of the volatility in terms of energy markets and raw material costs settle down, we will be in a better position to (give guidance) - at this point we not giving any forecasts."

He said trading in the first quarter was consistent with expectations.

"Across each of the business units, trading for the first quarter has been broadly consistent with the comments made at the full year results announcement in August," he said.

He added that Amcor Australasia's earnings were adversely impacted in the second half of last year and that trend was continuing into this year.

"Volumes in the corrugated business continued to be lower than the same period last year and it was likely to continue lag for the balance of the year," Mr MacKenzie said.

Amcor made a first half of $201.9 million in 2005/06, which was down 12 per cent from the prior year.

Amcor shares fell 10 cents to $6.90 on Wednesday.

A good time to sell assets, a good time to short sell too!
AMC power!

 

[imaginator]

Its seems to be hovering around 6.94 - 7.03 now, is the downtrend over??

 

[Realist]

Its seems to be hovering around 6.94 - 7.03 now, is the downtrend over??

Yes. I think so.

 

[swingstar]

Too early to say IMO. May be just a counter-trend. The rest of the week will give a clearer picture.

 

[imaginator]

Hi Swingstar,
hows the RSI divergence looking?

 

[swingstar]

Hi Swingstar,
hows the RSI divergence looking?

RSI did its job a few weeks back (for me)--signifying a possible reversal which happened. Now it's not displaying anything useful or what can't be seen in price.

A new trend has now formed. There has only been two up days in two weeks, both of which were on low volume, so there's not much support. As it stands then, I think we're in a counter-trend, but we won't know for a few more days yet.

I'm still short, but if it gets above $7.15 then I'll probably scrap it.

 

[imaginator]

swingstar my friend,

Im still shorting it too, but getting sweaty today.
Should have bought back yesterday when it touched low 6.90


taught me a lesson i never learned, put stop loss and never let a profit turn into a loss.

But for AMC, im very wary of stop losses, as it could get triggered very easily by temporary fluctuation, the price tend to jump here and there quite a bit.

Fingers crossed for tomorrow!

 

[swingstar]

swingstar my friend,

Im still shorting it too, but getting sweaty today.
Should have bought back yesterday when it touched low 6.90


taught me a lesson i never learned, put stop loss and never let a profit turn into a loss.

But for AMC, im very wary of stop losses, as it could get triggered very easily by temporary fluctuation, the price tend to jump here and there quite a bit.

Fingers crossed for tomorrow!

I'm not worried about AMC right now--almost all trends counter-trend, and they're great opportunities to add to a position. I'm actually hoping tomorrow is an up day, so I have some idea of what AMC is doing and if it's going to trade down in a channel. Volume did pick up today which is a bit of a concern.

BTW, when I've been worried about a trade, it's usually been because I'm risking too much and/or haven't planned it.