Sean K
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swingstar said:
LOL, I think I know what you meant Star. You are right, this is an important price point for AMC.
AMC - Amcor Limited
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LOL, I think I know what you meant Star. You are right, this is an important price point for AMC.
Realist
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Just as I thought! 
Amcor rides wave of takeover talk
September 21, 2006
AMCOR is the latest local company to feel the heat from circling private equity groups.
This time the mounting speculation has a trail leading back to the middle of the year and New Zealand's richest man, Graeme Hart.
Shares in the packaging company rose another 11c yesterday to $7.06, and moved closer to the $7.60 market sources said Mr Hart was willing to offer.
The company's shares have risen nearly 15 per cent in the past month as the takeover rumours have swirled around the stockmarket.
Amcor's chairman, Chris Roberts, is understood to have been sounded out on a possible bid for the company.
Mr Roberts did not return the Herald's call yesterday.
Amcor's investor relations head, John Murray, was in Sydney yesterday holding one-on-one meetings with fund managers.
The Herald understands one of the key topics of discussion with investors was the falling oil price and the positive impact it appeared to be having on the Amcor share price.
As for Mr Hart, he is cashed up after stunning the market with moves to privatise Burns Philp and transform himself into his own private equity player.
Last year his Rank Group spent $3 billion buying the trans-Tasman forestry, packing and building materials group Carter Holt Harvey. It has since sold most of the company's forestry assets, leaving the company with room for more acquisitions.
In a rare interview a month ago with The Australian Financial Review, the secretive Mr Hart said he considered Australia an expensive market. He said opportunities were more likely to be offshore than domestic.
Mr Hart did not return the Herald's call last night.
Amcor was sold off in July for failing to impress stockbroking analysts and fund managers, after it reported a full-year profit of $409.5 million, which was below expectations.
At the time it blamed the profit disappointment on rising input costs. A rising oil price affects the company in two ways: firstly it drives up the cost of its plastic products, secondly it increases the cost of running its factories.
Amcor's chief executive, Ken MacKenzie, is speaking at JP Morgan's investor conference in Edinburgh late next week, where he is expected to discuss the company's full-year result.
Amcor is now more than 40 per cent owned by offshore investors. Local fund managers are underweight Amcor.
Amcor is one of a long list of companies on the radar of private equity groups as falling share prices, combined with the local market having a host of fundamentally healthy companies, make the time ripe for private equity groups to move.
Last month a consortium of private equity players had their offer for Coles Myer rejected.
One group involved in that deal - Kohlberg Kravis Roberts - has bought the Cleanaway waste management business from Brambles, while companies including furniture retailer Super A-mart, clothing groups Colorado and Witchery and healthcare group DCA have been stalked by private equity groups.
Amcor rides wave of takeover talk
September 21, 2006
AMCOR is the latest local company to feel the heat from circling private equity groups.
This time the mounting speculation has a trail leading back to the middle of the year and New Zealand's richest man, Graeme Hart.
Shares in the packaging company rose another 11c yesterday to $7.06, and moved closer to the $7.60 market sources said Mr Hart was willing to offer.
The company's shares have risen nearly 15 per cent in the past month as the takeover rumours have swirled around the stockmarket.
Amcor's chairman, Chris Roberts, is understood to have been sounded out on a possible bid for the company.
Mr Roberts did not return the Herald's call yesterday.
Amcor's investor relations head, John Murray, was in Sydney yesterday holding one-on-one meetings with fund managers.
The Herald understands one of the key topics of discussion with investors was the falling oil price and the positive impact it appeared to be having on the Amcor share price.
As for Mr Hart, he is cashed up after stunning the market with moves to privatise Burns Philp and transform himself into his own private equity player.
Last year his Rank Group spent $3 billion buying the trans-Tasman forestry, packing and building materials group Carter Holt Harvey. It has since sold most of the company's forestry assets, leaving the company with room for more acquisitions.
In a rare interview a month ago with The Australian Financial Review, the secretive Mr Hart said he considered Australia an expensive market. He said opportunities were more likely to be offshore than domestic.
Mr Hart did not return the Herald's call last night.
Amcor was sold off in July for failing to impress stockbroking analysts and fund managers, after it reported a full-year profit of $409.5 million, which was below expectations.
At the time it blamed the profit disappointment on rising input costs. A rising oil price affects the company in two ways: firstly it drives up the cost of its plastic products, secondly it increases the cost of running its factories.
Amcor's chief executive, Ken MacKenzie, is speaking at JP Morgan's investor conference in Edinburgh late next week, where he is expected to discuss the company's full-year result.
Amcor is now more than 40 per cent owned by offshore investors. Local fund managers are underweight Amcor.
Amcor is one of a long list of companies on the radar of private equity groups as falling share prices, combined with the local market having a host of fundamentally healthy companies, make the time ripe for private equity groups to move.
Last month a consortium of private equity players had their offer for Coles Myer rejected.
One group involved in that deal - Kohlberg Kravis Roberts - has bought the Cleanaway waste management business from Brambles, while companies including furniture retailer Super A-mart, clothing groups Colorado and Witchery and healthcare group DCA have been stalked by private equity groups.
Realist
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$7.34 now - add in the 17c dividend from last week, this is storming along...
Just under $7.60 is where it will stop apparently...
Just under $7.60 is where it will stop apparently...
Realist
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$7.48 now - hmm takeover imminent.
And it has just paid out 17c dividends.
$7.60 is where it'll stop...
And it has just paid out 17c dividends.
$7.60 is where it'll stop...
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Start of a new downtrend? I'm not confident enough to short it yet with talks of a takeover. Still it was the same situation back in July, and it fell 11% in August.
Realist
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Jees I would not contemplate shorting it at the moment.
CanOz
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Realist, going by the info i have from my broker its over priced, 16.4 PER in a sector thats 12.8. Its not high on the brokers recommendations either.
A bit surprised at you on this one. Once i saw your comments i checked those things first expecting them to be cheaper than thier sector or something.
From a technical point they've just had a dead cross on the MACD. This usually is confirmation of a trend, but not always.
Wasn't there speculation of a takeover recently. Maybe that overpriced them slightly.
A bit surprised at you on this one. Once i saw your comments i checked those things first expecting them to be cheaper than thier sector or something.
From a technical point they've just had a dead cross on the MACD. This usually is confirmation of a trend, but not always.
Wasn't there speculation of a takeover recently. Maybe that overpriced them slightly.
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Here's a chart showing the days where there was a lot of takeover speculation... so I wouldn't rule it out falling again. It's found a ceiling on a strong area of resistance in the last week or so, but I'm not convinced that there won't be some more upside action if it does fall again.
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Realist
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I'm out at 7.57.
I want the money, it is now not undervalued, and I made 21% including dividends in about 3 or 4 months.
It may go up a little more, may get taken over, but it could drop, I am out!
I want the money, it is now not undervalued, and I made 21% including dividends in about 3 or 4 months.
It may go up a little more, may get taken over, but it could drop, I am out!
CanOz
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Realist said:
Nice trade Realist, nothing wrong with taking profits is there?
Realist
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CanOz said:Nice trade Realist, nothing wrong with taking profits is there?
Not in this case anyway, Amcor is not a great buy atm, hasn't great potential to rise much more, could drop, its ages till they pay dividends and it aint gonna double in the next 7 years I am guessing.
The one and only thing I may miss is a takeover bid - but I can't hold just for that. Theres' money to be made elsewhere.
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Good time to sell by my analysis. Coming up to the top of the channel it's been trading in for the last few years and my RSI is showing bearish divergence (pretty much the only indicator I use). Somewhat of a channel has formed, so I'm thinking a shorting opportunity with a rebound off the larger channel ceiling and a breach of the smaller channel floor.
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Realist
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It is down to $7.46 now, on what is a very bullish day for the ASX.
I think I timed it perfectly!
I think I timed it perfectly!
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Touched right on the bottom of that trend earlier.
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is it just me or is anyone else short selling AMC at moment?
Im also shorting ALL, ANZ.
Im also shorting ALL, ANZ.
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Swingstar,
what is the clear close price be in your analysis? I always think if AMC is above 7.4 it is quite safe to short. Its been struggling around 7.3 -7.45 for some time now...
what is the clear close price be in your analysis? I always think if AMC is above 7.4 it is quite safe to short. Its been struggling around 7.3 -7.45 for some time now...
