ALL ORDS went nowhere for 7 YEARS!

[Bill M]

Remember CBA IPO? And what about long term BHP or ANN or RHC?

I bought CBA at the float when it was around $10.45. Then I bought some more in the $40's somewhere. Then the crash came and I loaded up at $26, now they are all gone at around $58. Didn't pick the top but I'm very happy with the profits.

Any strangely some seem to profit from this strategy - take a look at the performance of ARG over the last 20 years, they have returned 9.4% pa compared to the all ord acc index 8.9% pa - this includes the last 7 years!

That is true investing, my kind of investing. Nothing like those sweet dividends.

I feel tired and defeated after 5 years of watching my super (since I retired) go down the gurgler. So I'll say 4,100.

How do you feel now? Up 13.5%? I hope you didn't cash out at the lows. Are still about? I'd like to hear how you are going, cheers.

I think the title of this thread may become redundant soon. Likely will be 'ALL ORDS went nowhere for 6 YEARS!' (or even 5 years if we are VERY lucky).

Nup, it's still 7 years, what about next year?

 

[Bill M]

Ok it's New Years Eve, I wish everybody good health, wealth and a Happy New Year.

Let's have another punt for 2013 year end just for fun.

Where do you think the All Ords will be at year end 2013?

I will go first, 4,919 same as my last years wrong prediction.

Good luck everyone.

 

[wayneL]

I'll go with the money printers... 5200

 

[burglar]

I'll go with the money printers... 5200

My horrorscope says 5178.3

 

[cynic]

My horrorscope says 5178.3

My coffee grounds poop all over your horrorscope: 3900 for the XJO futures.

Disclaimer:Coffee grounds are somewhat inferior to tea leaves, do not try this at home, I am an untrained amateur!

 

[So_Cynical]

Ill go 5050, its a lottery really.

 

[Julia]

No idea. Too much in question to make any valid prediction.
At this very moment, we do not know whether the US will find a last moment solution to falling off the fiscal cliff.
Just one example.

 

[brty]

Given the fact that the All ords or its backdated equivalent have never failed to make a run for the top 6 years after the previous top, plus the declining interest rate environment for savings, I'm prepared to have an out there guess.

6000. Meaning of course a 30% year for 2013.

The alternative is that the economic conditions are worse than at any time in the last 125 years for this country, a premis that I discount.

 

[CanOz]

I'm going with "who cares, as long as its above the index filter for as long as possible"!

CanOz

 

[captain black]

I'm going with "who cares, as long as its above the index filter for as long as possible"!

CanOz

A big +1 to that...

 

[sydboy007]

no idea where it will be. I'm hoping she'll be right, but I don't think the world has had so many major economic blocs printing so much money at the same time.

All that financial repression means billions of people either accept below CPI interest rates, or they are forced into shares and other risky assets. They will do it, but every there's a stumble somewhere, the rush back to bonds will be swift.

Could be a traders paradise...or hell...depending on which end of the trade you're on.

Might have a better idea of how things are going once profit reporting season is out of the way in a couple of months. If profits are holding up, then 5200 is possible. Unless profits are growing really strongly I can't see much of the market being able to defy gravity that much.

 

[tech/a]

Given the fact that the All ords or its backdated equivalent have never failed to make a run for the top 6 years after the previous top, plus the declining interest rate environment for savings, I'm prepared to have an out there guess.

6000. Meaning of course a 30% year for 2013.

The alternative is that the economic conditions are worse than at any time in the last 125 years for this country, a premis that I discount.

While the cancer may not be visible
It's there and one day it will appear.
Right now it's just growing.

We are just a small part of the body infected.

 

[wayneL]

While the cancer may not be visible
It's there and one day it will appear.
Right now it's just growing.

We are just a small part of the body infected.

The patient is on massive doses of morphine though, and is oblivious to its condition.

 

[CanOz]

The patient is on massive doses of morphine though, and is oblivious to its condition.

Interesting, Europe is actually in recession. Will the austerity measures that pushed them into recessions be enough to expedite the de-leveraging that needs to happen?

If so, Europe could be at the end of their business cycle relatively soon, in time for the US to start their next recession....

CanOz

 

[brty]

I am quite happy in the fact that most see nothing but raodblocks ahead. Historically speaking, investment in stocks is always best when things look the bleakest.
When all the good news is in and profits are growing, nothing but bluesky ahead, is usually the worst time to invest. Do many of the gloomy posters here see this time as different?

The printing of all the money has to find a home that will earn it something. With ZIRP and printing, where will the money end up? Looking at the SPX in the US, we have new 5 yearly highs, yet some will look at the bigger picture and see a triple top.

Sydboy,

Might have a better idea of how things are going once profit reporting season is out of the way in a couple of months. If profits are holding up, then 5200 is possible. Unless profits are growing really strongly I can't see much of the market being able to defy gravity that much.

Over many years I have seen this "just wait until after profit season" reason trotted out. Yet it neve seem to change anything, because there is another profit season just around the corner. The most likely course of events is that prices rise unexpectedly, then there are good profits announced, of course the opposite happens in bear markets.

Which part of the market do you see as currently "able to defy gravity" at present?

 

[FlyingFox]

I am quite happy in the fact that most see nothing but raodblocks ahead. Historically speaking, investment in stocks is always best when things look the bleakest.
When all the good news is in and profits are growing, nothing but bluesky ahead, is usually the worst time to invest. Do many of the gloomy posters here see this time as different?

The printing of all the money has to find a home that will earn it something. With ZIRP and printing, where will the money end up? Looking at the SPX in the US, we have new 5 yearly highs, yet some will look at the bigger picture and see a triple top.

Sydboy,


Over many years I have seen this "just wait until after profit season" reason trotted out. Yet it neve seem to change anything, because there is another profit season just around the corner. The most likely course of events is that prices rise unexpectedly, then there are good profits announced, of course the opposite happens in bear markets.

Which part of the market do you see as currently "able to defy gravity" at present?

Here's my reasoning for thinking why things might be different this time around. I think it might be a few yrs old.

http://www.china-europe-usa.com/level_4_data/hum/011_2.htm
http://www.china-europe-usa.com/level_4_data/hum/011_7.htm

Would be interesting to see the Oz one as well. I know that the birth rate has been below replacement for quite some time.

The money is/will be going into the hole created by the change in pop composition.

 

[sydboy007]

Sydboy,


Over many years I have seen this "just wait until after profit season" reason trotted out. Yet it neve seem to change anything, because there is another profit season just around the corner. The most likely course of events is that prices rise unexpectedly, then there are good profits announced, of course the opposite happens in bear markets.

Which part of the market do you see as currently "able to defy gravity" at present?

Anything paying 5% of more yield will prob do OK. prob anything in the top 50 will hold its value too.

With economic growth at trend, the velocity of debt the lowest in decades, profit growth is going to be hard to come by without good management and a focus on costs. Low profit growth means current prices are at fair levels.

Any company that can offer 5%+ yield and a reasonable belief of EPS growth is prob a good bet.

The prob is BHP and the MegaBank 4 are such a huge % of the All ordinaries it's really all about them, and maybe Rio and the Cozy Grocery duo. Most of the Top 20 stocks had such a good run up over Nov and Dec, they ain't cheap any more.

Buy for the long term, and sell for rational reasons is prob the best thing I can say

 

[Bill M]

Here we are 2 years after I started this thread and today the All Ords closed at 5353.

Up 14.8% for the Year.

But the All Ords still hasn't gone up for 7 long years.

The first time the XAO hit 5353 was way back in October 2006. Our market has been a real slacker.

Well done to wayneL and sydboy007, they picked the XAO at finishing up at the 5,200 mark. They were the closest guess, good work boys.

I'll go with the money printers... 5200

If profits are holding up, then 5200 is possible.

 

[Muschu]

While the cancer may not be visible
It's there and one day it will appear.
Right now it's just growing.

We are just a small part of the body infected.

Comment cancelled.

 

[Bill M]

Just for fun, does anyone want to have a punt on where the XAO will end up on 31/12/2014?

I'll start off first, tea leaves are telling me 5,931.

Good luck to you all and may 2014 bring you health, wealth and happiness.