ALL ORDS went nowhere for 7 YEARS!

[Aussiejeff]

Plus, throw this into the crystal ball and tell me the future....

Japan's population decreasing at fastest postwar rate


TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's population decreased in 2011 at the fastest pace in the postwar era with the decline, calculated by deducting the number of deaths from that of births, coming to an estimated 204,000, health ministry estimates showed Saturday.

The decrease was over 1.5 times higher than the revised figure of about 125,000 the year before and was the biggest since comparable data became available in 1947, the survey said. It was the fifth straight annual decline since 2007.

From the same article...

An official of the ministry predicted that Japan's population will keep decreasing at a faster pace as the number of deaths will continue to rise given the rapid aging of society, while the size of the younger generation will shrink.


(Mainichi Japan) January 1, 2012

http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20120101p2g00m0dm030000c.html

Pray tell.... how will Japan's economy ever grow "healthily" again with a rapidly declining & aging population?

They have NEVER allowed mass immigration or integration of other cultures into Japan for 1,000's of years. Would they bite that bullet for a slim chance to save total economic collapse in the not-so-far-off future?

"Kinga Shinnen"

 

[young-gun]

Bear market bearing down on us all. It will continue into the next year and the next 2 decades.

Once baby boomers are done, if the world still exists by then - then perhaps we can have another bull market.

+1, as i just wrote in another post, is it going to be a manipulated slow burn of economies for the next 15 years, or will it at some point collapse in a heap over night, seeing us to the bottom in a few months(and staying there for a looonnnggg time).

 

[Aussiejeff]

+1, as i just wrote in another post, is it going to be a manipulated slow burn of economies for the next 15 years, or will it at some point collapse in a heap over night, seeing us to the bottom in a few months(and staying there for a looonnnggg time).

My guess - a manipulated slow incineration.

Why?

Pollies & the "filthy rich" elite will do absolutely anything & everything to hang on to their power, wealth & standards of excessive living they have become addicted to.

Create money out of thin air, sell the farm, granny & the kids if that's what it takes to keep the Krug flowing....

LOL.

Enjoy the ride....

 

[young-gun]

My guess - a manipulated slow incineration.

Why?

Pollies & the "filthy rich" elite will do absolutely anything & everything to hang on to their power, wealth & standards of excessive living they have become addicted to.

Create money out of thin air, sell the farm, granny & the kids if that's what it takes to keep the Krug flowing....

LOL.

Enjoy the ride....

agreed, but i dont believe this is the best option. as you posted earlier on japan, their market has finished at its lowest level since 1982. so in 30 years japans market has basically gone nowhere? i think this is a hint of whats to come for everyone else, aus included. japan did however experience e 'crash' in the 90's, i still think there will be some form of crash throughout before the slowburn really takes hold.

i think that to let an economy deflate, and enter into a depression(obviously not fun and not pretty for anyone) would, in the long run, be a much healthier and short lived option. but then again never having experienced a full blown depression, its hard to speculate which is better. given the magnitude of whats happening arond the globe, i wouldnt be surprised if things were drawn out over the next 30-40 years before genuine growth kicked back in, whereas if we were to sit out a depression it may only take 15-20. pure guesswork and speculation on my part though. but the 30s depression started to end after a decade approx. given that we are in a worse situation now, i can only assume it would take longer to fix.

 

[Bill M]

So I take it all you blokes are in cash are you? If you haven't any cash then what about your super, did you put it into cash? And if you didn't, why not? I mean with such long term negative views that would be the way to go wouldn't it? Just wondering...

 

[young-gun]

So I take it all you blokes are in cash are you? If you haven't any cash then what about your super, did you put it into cash? And if you didn't, why not? I mean with such long term negative views that would be the way to go wouldn't it? Just wondering...

im in cash, and my super is laughable given my age, so what it does over the next year doesnt concern me, once i have a clearer picture of exactly how things are going to play out i will act. its ok for people like yourself to stay in the market given you probably bought bhp for 6$, and your dividends are still quite healthy given what you paid for them.

buy and hold no longer works, and if things get bad enough, cash isnt going to make you any money either. its upto us to assess economic situations day to day and decide whats best. every situation is different, and it cannot be argued that being in cash for 2011 was not better than being in a managed fund in a market that fell 14%

 

[Julia]

buy and hold no longer works, and if things get bad enough, cash isnt going to make you any money either. its upto us to assess economic situations day to day and decide whats best. every situation is different, and it cannot be argued that being in cash for 2011 was not better than being in a managed fund in a market that fell 14%

+1.

 

[skc]

buy and hold no longer works

Buy and hold has rarely worked for the average Joe imo... and over the long term Buy and Hold probably means beating inflation on average.

I first saw this chart some time ago and it still amazes me.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/01/02/business/20110102-metrics-graphic.html



The average person who started investing in the 1960s (in US) did not beat inflation today. And that's over 50 years...

 

[pixel]

buy and hold no longer works, and if things get bad enough, cash isnt going to make you any money either. its upto us to assess economic situations day to day and decide whats best. every situation is different, and it cannot be argued that being in cash for 2011 was not better than being in a managed fund in a market that fell 14%

buy and hold has never worked.
If it was that easy, everybody would just buy into IPOs (remember Telstra or QANTAS?) and rake in the dough.
We got to be smarter than that:
Take profit when it stops increasing. Never follow the herd, rather do the opposite.

And don't anybody come with their favourite super fund manager either: They live off those additional fees and charges that they syphon off regardless whether they win, lose, or draw.

 

[Aussiejeff]

So I take it all you blokes are in cash are you? If you haven't any cash then what about your super, did you put it into cash? And if you didn't, why not? I mean with such long term negative views that would be the way to go wouldn't it? Just wondering...

Ya, cash feels good atm.

Sleeping much better.

 

[So_Cynical]

I've been near fully invested since mid 2007...my PA return (gross dividends and distributions) on (original) capital is close to 10% ~ PA return (gross dividends and distributions) on recycled capital close to 7%

Buy and hold after establishing free carry and exiting 70 > 80% of original investment capital is working fine for me........buy and hold doesn't work when there is no regard for the price your paying (timing) and no overall trade and capital management plan.

 

[Wysiwyg]

buy and hold has never worked.
If it was that easy, everybody would just buy into IPOs (remember Telstra or QANTAS?) and rake in the dough.

Remember CBA IPO? And what about long term BHP or ANN or RHC?

 

[young-gun]

buy and hold has never worked.
If it was that easy, everybody would just buy into IPOs (remember Telstra or QANTAS?) and rake in the dough.
We got to be smarter than that:
Take profit when it stops increasing. Never follow the herd, rather do the opposite.

And don't anybody come with their favourite super fund manager either: They live off those additional fees and charges that they syphon off regardless whether they win, lose, or draw.

i guess it depends on your definition of buy and hold. buy and hold to me regards a time frame of 2-3 or even 4 years. i guess a better term for it would be 'investing' as opposed to day trading. i would never buy a stock with the intent of holding it for over 5 years. although if 5 years passed and a bull market isnt showing signs of slowing then why not hold a bit longer?

guys that i work with bought early-mid 90's, and had they of not been greedy(as admitted by themselves) and gotten out on a stop loss or something, then they would currently have millions. they were absolutely raking it in, one making 150k plus p/a.(of course he was leveraged and had investment debts, but these were far outweighed by dividends and price increases)

buy and hold works in certain periods of time - but it would appear not for extended periods of time(decades), as does just about any trading approach, its upto us once again to try pick the peaks and troughs.

cynical put it well. and is a perfect example of how buy and hold can work at times.

completely agree with you though, we got to be smarter than that.

 

[Chasero]

All ORDS definitely underperformed internationally.

Everyone should just buy U.S. shares lol... the DOW ended the year not too shabby.

Or buy maccas shares

 

[young-gun]

All ORDS definitely underperformed internationally.

Everyone should just buy U.S. shares lol... the DOW ended the year not too shabby.

Or buy maccas shares

is it that xjo underperformed internationally or that everyone else out-performed? perhaps aussies are smarter than the rest, as might be evident through our recent spike in savings? maybe we are more aware of economic impacts than others? obviously there is nothing to substantiate such a claim.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQkPZIbsl6Q

harry dents research in my opinion is the only research that seems to be close to explaining what happens to markets ahead of time. everyone has great explanations after events have unraveled, dent has accurately predicted major economic movements(the magnitude of these has not always been so accurate). i dont know that s&p to drop by 30-50% is in 2012 is his best prediction, but he explains how demographics are driving our economy, and indeed markets will follow this trend, how far they go is anyones guess.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Risk is the word and this quote sums up what has been posted before.

Long-term investors

If you’re investing for the long term, say more than 7 years, you want your capital to grow in value. Risks you face include:

* Inflation may erode the purchasing power of your money (this means that a fixed amount of money will buy less things in the future)
* The timing of your decisions may cause lower returns or loss of capital (buying at a market peak, selling when the market is down).
* Interest rate changes, currency movements and changes in the law can all affect how your investments perform.

 

[banco]

Even some really basic MA systems seem to outperform buy and hold.

 

[pixel]

Remember CBA IPO? And what about long term BHP or ANN or RHC?

Of course I remember CBA. But between October 2007 and May 2009 I did not hold any. Nor do I hold any CBA at the moment.



Conceded that it was easier for me to get rid of my small retail holdings; something a major Fund Manager couldn't do. That's my point: Don't do what everybody else is (forced to be) doing.
Similar to Kahuna1, who had fundamental reasons, I saw the signs on the ASX200 chart and cashed out in October 2007; went on 2 months holiday instead and after returning, I started a new trading regime (read Guppy: Bear Trading) until the turn in March 2009.

 

[Bill M]

and it cannot be argued that being in cash for 2011 was not better than being in a managed fund in a market that fell 14%

Isn't that the truth! Sounds like you are giving your finances a lot of thought, good luck mate.

And don't anybody come with their favourite super fund manager either:

I don't think there are too many of those anymore.

I've been near fully invested since mid 2007...my PA return (gross dividends and distributions) on (original) capital is close to 10% ~ PA return (gross dividends and distributions) on recycled capital close to 7%

What about your Super Fund? You would have to be going backwards with that one particularly with that dog GFF in it....:

Congrats on the other investments.

 

[Julia]

buy and hold baby, buy and hold

Why?

Even some really basic MA systems seem to outperform buy and hold.

Had a change of heart over a couple of days, huh, banco?

i guess it depends on your definition of buy and hold. buy and hold to me regards a time frame of 2-3 or even 4 years. i guess a better term for it would be 'investing' as opposed to day trading.

I don't especially see why buy and hold should relate to a period of 2, 3 or 4 years, or why the term 'investing' makes any particular difference. Not at all having a go at you here, young-gun, just think the terminology is ill defined and therefore the discussion doesn't make as much sense as it could.

Investment has different meanings in finance and economics. Finance investment is putting money into something with the expectation of gain, that upon thorough analysis, has a high degree of security for the principal amount, as well as security of return, within an expected period of time.

(With thanks to Wikipaedia)

I suppose - using that definition - you can equally apply the term 'investing' to day trading.

I'd say the common definition of buy and hold amongst the people who mostly do this, is the set and forget approach. They they are upset when they lose money.

Buying into a nicely established uptrend and getting out when it turns down may not ensure the maximum profit from the top and bottom of the market but will give you profits and preservation of capital.

i would never buy a stock with the intent of holding it for over 5 years. although if 5 years passed and a bull market isnt showing signs of slowing then why not hold a bit longer?

You are here following my suggestion above.