AGM - Allegiance Mining

[joeljp]

Hi Savtin, I think Ghosta has pointed out somewhere (could be on another forum) that rise of the SP in the immediate future will depend on the size of the Saxon find, as they will extend the mining/prodcution life of AGM even further. Based on their initial reports in Nov (i think) Saxon does look like an extension of the current deposit. We are all quietly hoping for a positive announcement in Jan.

We need to bear in mind is that AGM has issued a huge number of shares compare to MCR and already AGM's market cap isn't far off MCR at the moment. MCR is well into making a truck load of money. It could all come down to how much publicity AGM will get as it gets closer to production. The SP probably won't be like that MCR but it sure won't be too far off. I would dearly love to see AGM be another JBM in a few years. Wouldn't that be something!

 

[ghosta]

Ive just done some calculations based on the Internal Rate of Return quoted by the company following the 2005 Feasability Study. The results appear below. Listed at the top are the figures Ive based my calculations on.

Internal rate of return @nickel price $15000 US =45%
9000 tonnes nickel concentrate per year
Project cost $80m AU (Agm said $77 for 6000 tonnes/annum, not much more for 9000 tonnes per annum)
10% inflation rate
8 year mine life

Ive also assumed $1US= $0.80AU, originally AGM used $0.73AU but we are at $0.78AU aprox now, so to be safe Ive used $0.80.

Nickel Price $us Earnings per share $au

15000- 0.05
20000- 0.11
25000- 0.16
30000- 0.22
35000- 0.28
40000- 0.34
45000- 0.39


The calculations err very much on the conservative side, and assume Jinchuans profits are maintained at 25% of the nickel metal price. This may be on the high side, any reduction goes directly into the earnings per share.

You can use whater multiple you think appropriate to project a share price. If Saxon contains a mineable amount of ore, the multiple increases in proportion to the amount found.

Looks good to me!

 

[EEE]

up over 10% and not a murmur....

everyone must still be too hungover to notice

 

[ghosta]

up over 10% and not a murmur....

everyone must still be too hungover to notice

I guess the reason noone is commenting is that its not really a surprise.....

 

[jj0007]

Not surprised with the move. Just a bit dissappointed with the timing. Was hoping to top up some more in the next couple of months, when funds became available.

 

[kransky]

Not surprised with the move. Just a bit dissappointed with the timing. Was hoping to top up some more in the next couple of months, when funds became available.

same here! i am days away from funding for a few stocks and they are mostly all up significantly already...

AGS, AGM, SMM, BTX, MTN...

 

[chicken]

same here! i am days away from funding for a few stocks and they are mostly all up significantly already...

AGS, AGM, SMM, BTX, MTN...

wonderful is it not....read whar I said....all I got is being rubbished by some posters....TOLD YOU SO.....LOLOLOLOLOLOLO

 

[Kauri]

wonderful is it not....read whar I said....all I got is being rubbished by some posters....TOLD YOU SO.....LOLOLOLOLOLOLO

Chook, please don't crow too loudly, would hate to see the rooster-feather duster scenario play out here.. especially when I am a holder.

 

[GOYCO]

A prediction by KPMG in their last report stated that there will be a 26 % in crease in the consumption of iron ore. As nickel and the production of steel have a high correlation with each other it would be safe to assume that the demand for nickel will be very strong this year

 

[chicken]

Chook, please don't crow too loudly, would hate to see the rooster-feather duster scenario play out here.. especially when I am a holder.

OK,....as you are a holder and I am a holder...will keep quiet as I like to see the $1 sign soon....you never guess my average now 14cents....and have 200k of these....got it right this time....also Kauri...SBM is ready for a run....as they put in for Gold assets on the east coast...SBM on the short list for these...and inclusion in ASX 200 soon....ready to rock and roll

 

[joeljp]

I too was hoping to top up if it drops below 50c. It looks like sub 50c is now a thing of the past

 

[Devil_Star]

A prediction by KPMG in their last report stated that there will be a 26 % in crease in the consumption of iron ore. As nickel and the production of steel have a high correlation with each other it would be safe to assume that the demand for nickel will be very strong this year

Hi, can you give the link about KPMG's report pls? Thx alot!

 

[GOYCO]

http://kpmg.com.au/Portals/0/Energy&MiningOutlookAustralia0607.pdf

cheers

 

[ghosta]

Chook, please don't crow too loudly, would hate to see the rooster-feather duster scenario play out here.. especially when I am a holder.

Im not sure its a good idea to stop our feathered friend from crowing. While hes crowing, the SP seems to go up!
Besides, he's entertaining!

 

[Novski]

Any opinions on this in the short term/next week...since it's had a very good week or so.

My view is that it will retrace down especially if it closes at 60.5 which will create 2 short term peaks at 60.5.

 

[nioka]

Any opinions on this in the short term/next week...since it's had a very good week or so.

My view is that it will retrace down especially if it closes at 60.5 which will create 2 short term peaks at 60.5.

Closed at the 60.5 but I can see further rises next week. There was good volume near the top today. The market was down but AGM had agood rise. There may be more fund buying next week too. But then again I am often wrong.

 

[ghosta]

Im with Nioka. Not because I can predict short term trends, but because Nioka say its likely to go up. Hes not wrong very often when he posts on this forum.

 

[Sean K]

Im with Nioka. Not because I can predict short term trends, but because Nioka say its likely to go up. Hes not wrong very often when he posts on this forum.

I just can't help myself here ghosta. Please, DYOR. This does not include counting Noika as a stockbroker/analyst.

This seems to be a good company digging up a good type of dirt but please, check everything everyone says on this and every other forum.

If you haven't already, go through just this in detail:

www.allegiance-mining.com.au

All the best!

 

[ghosta]

Since when has research been an indicator of daily movements unless theres an announcement etc. Fair dinkum some people are idiots!

 

[Sean K]

Since when has research been an indicator of daily movements unless theres an announcement etc. Fair dinkum some people are idiots!

Yes, you are right, sorry, I am an idiot. You should just follow Noika. I think I'm going to sell my Grandma over the weekend to pour into this one, because Noika said.

But then again I am often wrong.