AGM - Allegiance Mining

[chicken]

Well its been a fantastic year for AGM with its tripling in price over the year. Had I posted a tipping competition last year I would probably have been the only one to put a tip in- but a lot more people have become aware of this great stock now and Im sure we can get quite a few tips. Had I tipped last year I would have said 30c, so Im conservative as far as the SP goes.

End of next year my guess is 92c

Whats your guess?

Ghosta....just bought a few more at 44cents...I am now in for a longterm hold...but by next Xmas I will be up by over 100%...as I feel the Sp could be $1+.....as AGM will be producing NICKEL....better, than money in the bank at 5% so I have taken the risk and we will see how right I will be....merry Xmas to all and a happy prosperous new year....all sytems go for next year..also GOLD will shine in 2007.......

 

[ghosta]

Chicken, pretty open guess, this is a tipping comp, give me a figure!

 

[Sean K]

Ghosta....just bought a few more at 44cents...I am now in for a longterm hold...but by next Xmas I will be up by over 100%...as I feel the Sp could be $1+.....as AGM will be producing NICKEL....better, than money in the bank at 5% so I have taken the risk and we will see how right I will be....merry Xmas to all and a happy prosperous new year....all sytems go for next year..also GOLD will shine in 2007.......

Chicken you can't just throw price targets up with vague justification, like 'producing nickel'. Especially double the current sp. And that's not necessarily better than money in the bank. Plenty can go wrong in the mean time. Stick to ramping without lofty unsubstantiated price targets mate. And, yes, before you say it, I do know something about the company and I have read the reports, blah blah. They look good. All the best!

 

[ghosta]

Plenty can go wrong in the mean time.

Kennas what can possibly go wrong; we know nickel will be strong for the next decade at least, the mining and processing is all in hand, product is sold. I suppose the worst thing I can think of is that the ship bringing the ball mill to Australia from Europe sinks- how likely is that!

 

[Sean K]

Kennas what can possibly go wrong; we know nickel will be strong for the next decade at least, the mining and processing is all in hand, product is sold. I suppose the worst thing I can think of is that the ship bringing the ball mill to Australia from Europe sinks- how likely is that!

Ghosta, the company looks great, and if you're a believer in the stronger for longer, US not going into a housing led recession, China continuing to grow at 10% ish, supply not catching up with demand, the mine coming on line on time, the workforce recruited is high quality and on time, that ship does not sink and Chicken doesn't visit the site and cause a cave in, then great! Perfect. There's never a sure thing Ghosta, even my stocks are likely to go bankrupt for some unforseen reason soon! Let's keep it real.

 

[ghosta]

Ghosta, the company looks great, and if you're a believer in the stronger for longer, US not going into a housing led recession, China continuing to grow at 10% ish, supply not catching up with demand, the mine coming on line on time, the workforce recruited is high quality and on time, that ship does not sink and Chicken doesn't visit the site and cause a cave in, then great! Perfect. There's never a sure thing Ghosta, even my stocks are likely to go bankrupt for some unforseen reason soon! Let's keep it real.

Hmm... some interesting point you have raised point to why AGM shareprice has not reached the dizzy heights some have been predicting.

Some people still believe that a downturn in US housing economy would have a significant effect on ni price. Also that the demand for nickel in China will mysteriously fall despite the fact that China is about to embark on a government sponsered infastructure development of gigantic proportions (bigger than anything the world has ever seen) in rural China. Perhaps the Chinese will give in to international pressure and not revalue the currency, (if there is a worldwide recession) even though it will mean they will have to stop this project aimed to improove the lives of Chinas 900m rural peasants.

Some people imagine that 50000 tonnes extra nickel can be bought into production each year (with China expansion programme thats probably going to be 100000 tonnes) yet all the major projects are at least a year behind, and with some the technology is untested and expensive. Someone has obviously found a way to fast track nickel exploration and mine development, reducing it from average 8 years to 1 year.

We already know the mines in Tasmania have increased pay by 10% and are giving their workers supermarket coupons to stop the best men deserting to join Allegiance. And its not working. All the miners that went interstate when mines closed in Tassie who want to get out of the stinking hot desert and come home may suddenly change their mind, its not so hot really? Yes its plausible.

And if the unforseen happens and the Avebury development falls six months behind, the SP will fall and never ever recover. Even though they will pay 20c dividend per year, Ill still be able to buy shares for under 40c!

I get it now.

 

[chicken]

Ghosta, the company looks great, and if you're a believer in the stronger for longer, US not going into a housing led recession, China continuing to grow at 10% ish, supply not catching up with demand, the mine coming on line on time, the workforce recruited is high quality and on time, that ship does not sink and Chicken doesn't visit the site and cause a cave in, then great! Perfect. There's never a sure thing Ghosta, even my stocks are likely to go bankrupt for some unforseen reason soon! Let's keep it real.

good one looks as if I am going to be KFC...LOLOLOLOLO

 

[ghosta]

Its OK Chicken, the rock is very stable at Avebury and you wont cause a cave in if you visit. But you might not find any miners about, they will be hiding from you in the state of the art emergency shelters they have down the mine, and the doors will be locked!

 

[GOYCO]

Ghosta

Since most of the paticipants on this thread seem to be fairly conservative I would like to be daring and say $1.27. If it eventually goes above $3 then I can retire early. I am also wondering if you noticed that the Beards keep comparing their company to WMC. Is it possible? Zeehan = Olympic Dam?
Looking for signatures, like Avebury. Also no one has said anything about Melba Flats. There's a chunk of Nickel there.

Yeah I think $1.27 is a bargain

cheers

 

[porkpie324]

Hey its good to have the crew (Ghosta & Chicken) back on this one, glad u have sense of humour chicken I was getting worried, quite a que outside our local KFC last night. BTW I hav'nt bought back in to AGM yet still waiting for 30c. porkpie

 

[Sean K]

Ghosta

Since most of the paticipants on this thread seem to be fairly conservative I would like to be daring and say $1.27. If it eventually goes above $3 then I can retire early. I am also wondering if you noticed that the Beards keep comparing their company to WMC. Is it possible? Zeehan = Olympic Dam?
Looking for signatures, like Avebury. Also no one has said anything about Melba Flats. There's a chunk of Nickel there.

Yeah I think $1.27 is a bargain

cheers

Not conservative Goyco, just following ASF policy on ramping. Please read the link.

One of the points is that you must provide justification for a price target, or your post will be deleted. Just how on earth do you get $1.27?

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4773&highlight=asf+policy+ramping

 

[savtin]

Hi Kennas,

That is easy to justify with production as it is and a few assumptions..

1. PON - 25000/t
2. 8500 tonne/pa (start at 5500 but grow it slowly)
3.shares on issue 670M
4. Overhead and exploration costs 20M pa
5. $63/t operating costs say 20% blowout=$75.6/t

8500 x 25000 - 950,000 x 75.6 = 140M - 20M = 120M
no interest costs and ignore ammortization as it is a non-cash expense

then tax is 30% = 36M
leaves us 84 M profit / 670 shares = 12.5 cents per shareEPS

now we can safely assume the mine will have capacity with further explaration to have a life of atleast 20 years.....therefore justifying a higher p/e-------------say 10

then SP = 10 x 12.5
= $1.25

cheers
savtin

 

[Sean K]

Hi Kennas,

That is easy to justify with production as it is and a few assumptions..

1. PON - 25000/t
2. 8500 tonne/pa (start at 5500 but grow it slowly)
3.shares on issue 670M
4. Overhead and exploration costs 20M pa
5. $63/t operating costs say 20% blowout=$75.6/t

8500 x 25000 - 950,000 x 75.6 = 140M - 20M = 120M
no interest costs and ignore ammortization as it is a non-cash expense

then tax is 30% = 36M
leaves us 84 M profit / 670 shares = 12.5 cents per shareEPS

now we can safely assume the mine will have capacity with further explaration to have a life of atleast 20 years.....therefore justifying a higher p/e-------------say 10

then SP = 10 x 12.5
= $1.25

cheers
savtin

Thanks savtin.

Just curious what the 950,000 and 140m are?
I haven't found an assumption by the company on overheads/mining contract/exploration costs. Did you just take a stab at that?
Will shares on issue change if they do a placement/spp, or with the current cash on hand and coming into production cover that?

Cheers.

 

[savtin]

Kennas,

The 950,000 is ore mined and the 140 is the revenue before subtracting the overhead and exploration expense.

The figures have actually come from information that either AGM or brokers have provided.

 

[GOYCO]

Kennas

You are right..imo I believe the SP will be somewhere between $.80 and $1.50. There are so many variables involved that my educated guess is based on everything going right. $1.27 is my guess. I have no intimate knowledge which would make my guess any more or less correct than anyone elses. It should not be construed as financial advice. It's just that Ghosta asked us what SP we thought it could be. As markets are not perfect ( that is another debate entirely) even Warren Buffet's price for dec 30th 2007 is a guess as well. I apologise if anyone took my guess as anything other than which it was intended.

Cheers

Man you guys are strick

 

[Sean K]

Kennas

You are right..imo I believe the SP will be somewhere between $.80 and $1.50. There are so many variables involved that my educated guess is based on everything going right. $1.27 is my guess. I have no intimate knowledge which would make my guess any more or less correct than anyone elses. It should not be construed as financial advice. It's just that Ghosta asked us what SP we thought it could be. As markets are not perfect ( that is another debate entirely) even Warren Buffet's price for dec 30th 2007 is a guess as well. I apologise if anyone took my guess as anything other than which it was intended.

Cheers

Man you guys are strick

Maybe another way of looking at it is that it's trippled the past 12 months, so this time next year it should be $1.35??

Or, if you extrapolate the chart it might get to about $0.95ish.....

Gee I wish setting price targets was that easy, and they all eventuated!!!

 

[Kauri]

Was one of my early shots at E/W.. am still holding.. looking for around th 60c mark initially.. my stop is still around 33c but I think I would act before then if it started dropping.

 

[ghosta]

Was one of my early shots at E/W.. am still holding.. looking for around th 60c mark initially.. my stop is still around 33c but I think I would act before then if it started dropping.

I think Id do the opposite; Id sell my car, motorbikes and boat and buy in! Id have brand new ones in a month or two!

 

[nioka]

Was one of my early shots at E/W.. am still holding.. looking for around th 60c mark initially.. my stop is still around 33c but I think I would act before then if it started dropping.

I'd act before it got to 33c too. I'd buy more before it got that low. I'll probably buy more at the current price.

 

[chicken]

Ghosta....if you look at my posts at ZFX I said...quote..that the SP was to cheap at $3...it should be more like $4....now it $18...now I am flabergasted..when I said that some posters asked me which year...just sometimes I get mad about them...but so far...HAVE been right in most picks..bar BMX....but I still say that one will fire as well as BMX claims to become the 4th largest producer of taitanium...my SBM pick went up by 500% my ZFX pick went up from $2.30..to $18.also 500%...just unreal and I can see AGM hitting $1+ soon why..look at the NICKEL price its flying..overnight it increasead another 45cents...Osh is another undervalued stock...there is a lot of money to be made in the next 5 years...the world is awash with money..its all looking for a home..China will be investing more in Australia...so everyone who is now playing the game will make $$$$..I am...take SMM Uranium...just reading that once the green light is given for minig that SMM will be the 10th largest mine...and the QLD goverment will reap billions of $$$...I look at 75% to 100% of increase of my money in the sharemarket..so far it has been achieved even though I had a few dogs on the way...so everyone a merry christmas and a happy new year...Chicken