AGM - Allegiance Mining

[ghosta]

Yes, you are right, sorry, I am an idiot. You should just follow Noika. I think I'm going to sell my Grandma over the weekend to pour into this one, because Noika said.

Nioka has been trading in and out of AGM for sometime now. He has the uncanny knack of picking the right moment to move in and out. He is not a Financial Adviser. As he said he could be wrong.

I have no idea how to predict daily trends. In the absence of any research to indicate one way or another most people simply guess. Some people, like Nioka have a good instinct for picking a trend. But hes not always right as he pointed out.

I dont recall him suggesting you sell your grandmother. Nor has he ever recommended anyone try to do this silly thing.

 

[nioka]

AGM ,in my opinion, is another "Sally Malay". SMY was good to me going from 32c to over $2.20 in a couple of years. Not an overnight bonanza but a good sound investment. SMY was hedged at a low price as a condition of finance. AGM does not have that hedging, although it could do with some now at the current prices, and will be selling at higher prices than SMY has had to date. There will be market variations but I am expecting a steady climb to the commencement of production and another boost then.
Unless you detest your grandmother there is no share worth as much. There is always some risk. I had GYM when their mine collapsed, bought more to average down and then they had a fire. Result; almost a total write off.
Slow and steady wins the race and the ride is more enjoyable.

 

[joeljp]

Nioka and Ghosta, speaking of hedging, do you know at what price will Jinchuan buy Nickel from AGM for the next 10 yrs? I doubt that it will be at spot.

 

[ghosta]

JoelJp- the contract with Jinchuan is unhedged. The price relates to the spot price of nickel when the concentrate is loaded on the ship.

 

[joeljp]

Hi Ghosta, you're absolutely right. You do know AGM well! That's great news that the price is unhedged. At the current spot price or even half that, we will all be ver well rewarded

I've just been going some of AGM's presentation this year. I noticed on one of slides that Saxon is actually outside AGM's current leased chunk of land. Is that accurate?

 

[chicken]

Well...you really dont know what you are saying..SAXON is only 300 meters from our exsisting mine and you will find that AGM would not go on someone elses land to drill...man you should do some research before posting...OR ARE YOU TRYING TO BUY SOME CHEAP STOCK......Ghosta you make a comment here otherwise people think its a ramp.....

 

[ghosta]

I've just been going some of AGM's presentation this year. I noticed on one of slides that Saxon is actually outside AGM's current leased chunk of land. Is that accurate?

Saxon is definitely inside AGMs exploration lease. But it may not be inside the Avebury mining lease. Not sure of the technicalities, but the mining lease is only about 500 ha in size.
So to start a new mine AGM have to apply to the mines dept for a mining lease. I suppose this is a revenue raising thing. But for AGM it will be almost automatic, when they apply for one it will be granted pronto, no hold ups with the paperwork. Why do I say this- they are the second biggest company operating fully in Tasmania behind Gunns, and are a very environmentally responsible company, which helps. The State Govt loves AGM A LOT.

 

[joeljp]

Well...you really dont know what you are saying..SAXON is only 300 meters from our exsisting mine and you will find that AGM would not go on someone elses land to drill...man you should do some research before posting...OR ARE YOU TRYING TO BUY SOME CHEAP STOCK......Ghosta you make a comment here otherwise people think its a ramp.....

Hi Chicken, i'm not trying to ramp the stock either way. I'm only going by what I read in the 3rd Qtr Activities & Cashfolow Report, Page 8 (27 Oct 06). The drill holes were marked outside AGM's mining lease (you can check for yourself) and Ghosta has made it clear that it's within AGM's exploration lease. Like Ghosta, I'm sure if it's a goer, it will only be a formality for AGM to be granted full access.

Btw, I'm holding quite a substantial amount of AGM shares and wouldn't want to see it go backward, I can assure you

 

[Sean K]

This might be forming a bit of a pennant here. Consolidating after the big jump last week. Technically, a $0.70 ish short term price target if it breaks up.

(not holding)

 

[GOYCO]

Kennas

That's a bit of a Claytons price target don't you think? If this or If that then we can all make predictions

cheers

 

[Sean K]

Kennas

That's a bit of a Claytons price target don't you think? If this or If that then we can all make predictions

cheers

Technically, when a stock breaks up from a pole and pennant the length of the pole is the length of the next leg up. It's just a probability and not exact, but it's a legit way of putting in a price target using TA. I've seen it happen a few times if the planets line up.

Here is a description of a pole and pennant formation from chartschool.

Sharp Move: To be considered a continuation pattern, there should be evidence of a prior trend. Flags and pennants require evidence of a sharp advance or decline on heavy volume. These moves usually occur on heavy volume and can contain gaps. This move usually represents the first leg of a significant advance or decline and the flag/pennant is merely a pause.
Flagpole: The flagpole is the distance from the first resistance or support break to the high or low of the flag/pennant. The sharp advance (or decline) that forms the flagpole should break a trend line or resistance/support level. A line extending up from this break to the high of the flag/pennant forms the flagpole.
Flag: A flag is a small rectangle pattern that slopes against the previous trend. If the previous move was up, then the flag would slope down. If the move was down, then the flag would slope up. Because flags are usually too short in duration to actually have reaction highs and lows, the price action just needs to be contained within two parallel trend lines.
Pennant: A pennant is a small symmetrical triangle that begins wide and converges as the pattern matures (like a cone). The slope is usually neutral. Sometimes there will not be specific reaction highs and lows from which to draw the trend lines and the price action should just be contained within the converging trend lines.
Duration: Flags and pennants are short-term patterns that can last from 1 to 12 weeks. There is some debate on the timeframe and some consider 8 weeks to be pushing the limits for a reliable pattern. Ideally, these patterns will form between 1 and 4 weeks. Once a flag becomes more than 12 weeks old, it would be classified as a rectangle. A pennant more than 12 weeks old would turn into a symmetrical triangle. The reliability of patterns that fall between 8 and 12 weeks is debatable.
Break: For a bullish flag or pennant, a break above resistance signals that the previous advance has resumed. For a bearish flag or pennant, a break below support signals that the previous decline has resumed.
Volume: Volume should be heavy during the advance or decline that forms the flagpole. Heavy volume provides legitimacy for the sudden and sharp move that creates the flagpole. An expansion of volume on the resistance (support) break lends credence to the validity of the formation and the likelihood of continuation.
Targets: The length of the flagpole can be applied to the resistance break or support break of the flag/pennant to estimate the advance or decline.

This fits the criteria at the moment IMO. I wouldn't call it a 'Claytons' target at all.

I encourage all members who have any questions on basic TA and price targets that may be set using TA to do some reading up on it. There are many sites you can visit (just google it) and the regular one I use for reference is:

www.stockcharts.com/education

(not holding AGM)

 

[jj0007]

Use to do a bit of TA when I was short term trading. Only indicator I found reliable was the RSI which gave "overbought" and "oversold" signals. RSI was above 70 the last few trading days hence a retrace was expected. It will jigsaw up and down but I'm pretty confident that throughout all this activity we will see higher highs and higher lows. That's all that counts in the long run.

I'm in for the long haul and don't really pay too much attention to charts for this particular stock.

 

[chicken]

Use to do a bit of TA when I was short term trading. Only indicator I found reliable was the RSI which gave "overbought" and "oversold" signals. RSI was above 70 the last few trading days hence a retrace was expected. It will jigsaw up and down but I'm pretty confident that throughout all this activity we will see higher highs and higher lows. That's all that counts in the long run.

I'm in for the long haul and don't really pay too much attention to charts for this particular stock.

Your last sentence here is what I am doing.....I own a good no of these and they are now..no trade and wait and see...sitting on a 200% profit now...and by years end may be a hugh profit....I like that.....

 

[ghosta]

Looks like a buying opportunity coming up- close to 50c.

 

[GOYCO]

This might be forming a bit of a pennant here. Consolidating after the big jump last week. Technically, a $0.70 ish short term price target if it breaks up.

(not holding)

Obviously all the charting techniques and explainations of TA are highly accurate LOLOLOL

now 53 cents

cheers

 

[Sean K]

Obviously all the charting techniques and explainations of TA are highly accurate LOLOLOL

now 53 cents

cheers

They're just probabilities Goyco. You should know that. And because the formation has perhaps broken down the analysis is no longer valid.

 

[nioka]

Obviously all the charting techniques and explainations of TA are highly accurate LOLOLOL

now 53 cents

cheers

There are always fluctuations in the daily SP. This does not mean that the average trend is not rising. Be thankful that these variations in price allow entry into a good stock at a reasonable price. This is the reason I do not have stop loss arrangements in place.Sometimes you can be stopped out of a good stock. Nothing has changed in the operations of the company which is a worry to me. The price of nickel has an effect. Remember that the company is another day closer to production. I remain a true believer.

 

[GOYCO]

IMHO I believe that this company has a fantastic future. I am a value investor and don't believe that anyone can acurately pedict with certainty or even high probability the short term price movements of any company. ( although some claim to do so). In saying that I do use some parts of TA, such as chaikin money flow, and the 30 and 90 day exponential moving averages to give me opprtunities to buy. This company has some real assests and IMO are udervalued at this time. It does make sense that as AGM get closer to production then those assests are looking more likely to be exploited and thus money coming through the door. IMO I agree with the EPS figures posted by Ghosta in earlier posts. On those figures and production imminent then I think this company is a good buy at these levels. I hope this clears up my position. Charts give me headaches

cheers

 

[GOYCO]

correction on the exponential moving averages I actually use 11day and 31 day. not 30 day and 90 day

 

[ghosta]

Does anybody understand this-

http://www.ragingbull.altavista.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=CLB01229&read=9289

I think it means that the present reduction in nickel prices is due to an accounting adjustment.

If this is the case things will return to normal soon.

AGM will follow. The timid will be gone; the share needs a purge every now and then.