AGM - Allegiance Mining

[GOYCO]

I personally will be accumulating AGM through 2007 rather than looking for weakness. I feel that the SP will keep rising up until production. As long as delays are not too long then I think this strategy will probably be the safest. I can't find a better mining prospect. It's actually nice to come across a company that under promises and over delivers. Refer previous announcements over the last two years. Now the question is how much can I accumulate before I run out of money...

All the best for 2007

cheers

 

[ghosta]

Good luck Goyco in your accumulation scheme.

I have no real idea what oportunities to buy will occur this coming year. Its a different stock than the one Im used to- every good drilling result was greeted with silence in the past. I dont think this will be the case any more.

Saxon is a especially significant discovery because the geologists predicted it would be there. That means they are likely to hit on further discoveries faster.

If it drills out to be a only a small deposit, it will only delay the inevitible expansion of production. But the market wont like it.

But in the coming year will be an increasing awareness that high nickel prices are here to stay. If the price drops below 30000us or even 25000 us per tonne, even though below these prices Avebury is hugely profitable,the market wont like it- for a while.

On the other hand if Saxon is a mineable deposit, Im going to hang on to my chair. I think the SP will go ballistic!

Chicken- Merry Xmas, and thanks for your entertaining postings. Dont forget to put your price prediction on Hotcopper!

All the best to all for the festive season.

 

[nioka]

The biggest problem facing us as holders of AGM is the same problem I found with AZR. I held them for some time waiting for the big jump in price after the commencement of production only to be "robbed" by the MGX take over at a very low price. This could happen here. Would Chicken and Ghosta be prepared to give an opinion on this?

 

[joeljp]

Hi Kennas,

That is easy to justify with production as it is and a few assumptions..

1. PON - 25000/t
2. 8500 tonne/pa (start at 5500 but grow it slowly)
3.shares on issue 670M
4. Overhead and exploration costs 20M pa
5. $63/t operating costs say 20% blowout=$75.6/t

8500 x 25000 - 950,000 x 75.6 = 140M - 20M = 120M
no interest costs and ignore ammortization as it is a non-cash expense

then tax is 30% = 36M
leaves us 84 M profit / 670 shares = 12.5 cents per shareEPS

now we can safely assume the mine will have capacity with further explaration to have a life of atleast 20 years.....therefore justifying a higher p/e-------------say 10

then SP = 10 x 12.5
= $1.25

cheers
savtin

Hi Savtin, I'm guessing that the $25000/t is in USD? If it is then your $1.25 should really be around $1.66 (based on $0.75 fx rate). I'd be happy with that

Personally, I reckon PON can only go up from here. The stock level of Ni is very low. Wouldn't it be great if Ni completely runs out about the time when AGM production kicks in?

 

[michael_selway]

Hi Savtin, I'm guessing that the $25000/t is in USD? If it is then your $1.25 should really be around $1.66 (based on $0.75 fx rate). I'd be happy with that

Personally, I reckon PON can only go up from here. The stock level of Ni is very low. Wouldn't it be great if Ni completely runs out about the time when AGM production kicks in?

really? $16USD/lb for Nickel is pretty peaky imo

thx

MS

 

[ghosta]

The biggest problem facing us as holders of AGM is the same problem I found with AZR. I held them for some time waiting for the big jump in price after the commencement of production only to be "robbed" by the MGX take over at a very low price. This could happen here. Would Chicken and Ghosta be prepared to give an opinion on this?

Nioka, I feel a bit out of my depth to give any definitive opinion here.
I think its the one thing that many shareholders fear.

In the present climate, the vast majority of shareholders hold very positive views on the future of AGM and a takeover bid would be difficult.

Should Saxon turn out to be a small deposit, I believe sentiment could change. In the light of cold hard reality, if Saxon WAS small it doesnt matter much. The company would keep exploring the vast territory until it does hit on sizeable deposits. But the market tends to have a shorter term view.
The SP would drop considerably- perhaps only for a relatively short time, but certainly time enough for a takeover attempt to be more likely sucessfull.

How much more likely? No idea.

Best not worry too much about it, if it happens, life goes on......

 

[ghosta]

Can anyone give me the top 3 australian nickel producures and the tonnage produced in 2006? Given that AGMs "beards" have stated they expect to be the third highest producer in Aust in a few years, Im interested to see what sort of output they are anticipating.

 

[michael_selway]

Can anyone give me the top 3 australian nickel producures and the tonnage produced in 2006? Given that AGMs "beards" have stated they expect to be the third highest producer in Aust in a few years, Im interested to see what sort of output they are anticipating.

JBM, MRE, MCR, SMY, IGO

thx

MS

 

[ghosta]

BHP Billiton will obviously be the largest Nickel producer, so who is likely to be the second largest nickel producer in Australia ahead of Allegiance (if all goes well) in a few years time?

I cannt find a list of current production let alone projected production figures for Australia.

 

[gringokonyo]

really? $16USD/lb for Nickel is pretty peaky imo

thx

MS

Hi,

I'm new to this forum and interested how you've calculated $16 USD/lb for $25,000 USD per tonne? I understand that there are 2204 lbs per tonne, so that would make the lb price $11.30 USD. Not sure if I'm missing something here.

I have a few shares in this stock, bought on the strength of the article in the Resource Stock magazine, so am pleased to see that many on this thread are predicting a significant share price increase by the end of 2007.

 

[watsonc]

Is AGM still worth buying into at 0.48 cents??? By the end of 2007, are the predictions estimating that the share price will hit around $2.00????

 

[nioka]

Is AGM still worth buying into at 0.48 cents??? By the end of 2007, are the predictions estimating that the share price will hit around $2.00????

Chicken and ghosata wouldn,t be able to answer because they may be then accused of ramping so maybe I can answer for them. No I can't because I'd be ramping too. You will have to do some research yourself. The answer should beeeeeeeeeeeeeee wow.

 

[Halba]

at $2 the market capitalisation would be $1.2billion. its production profile of sub <10,000t nickel means $1 is more likely

 

[ghosta]

Is AGM still worth buying into at 0.48 cents??? By the end of 2007, are the predictions estimating that the share price will hit around $2.00????

I cant answer whether you should buy shares at 48c. But if you were to do some research you may decide to.

 

[chicken]

Breakout..now 52cents...told you all

 

[ghosta]

Breakout..now 52cents...told you all

"Dont count your Chickens before they hatch"- old jungle saying.

 

[nioka]

at $2 the market capitalisation would be $1.2billion. its production profile of sub <10,000t nickel means $1 is more likely

That makes sense. To go beyond $1 would need more production. I will be happy with $1 as my average cost is 35.7c. If adividend is paid within a reasonable time as has been predicted I will hold long term so the price then becomes less important

 

[ghosta]

That makes sense. To go beyond $1 would need more production. /QUOTE]

Not necessarily; a large reserve of ore discovered and plans to increase production sooner rather than later will allow the SP to reasonably go beyond $1.

I think the former is likely, so perhaps the latter will follow.

Hope so.

 

[nioka]

That makes sense. To go beyond $1 would need more production. /QUOTE]

Not necessarily; a large reserve of ore discovered and plans to increase production sooner rather than later will allow the SP to reasonably go beyond $1.

I think the former is likely, so perhaps the latter will follow.

Hope so.

You're right. I should have said " To go beyond $1 would need the possibility of increased production."

 

[savtin]

THis has been a very good year for me in regards to AGM ....i was with them 3 years ago when they hit 10cents....and have been averaging up ever since......

AGM's SP has been very solid this year and has gone up approx 260%.....which is fantastic.

In saying that although it is 50.5 cents today I can't help but feel the real surge in price has yet to happen......and i mean when it is re-rated........stocks tend to run up between 50 cents to 100cents pretty quickly.........

when do you all think this will come???......... we are not that far off production and for eg PDN and MCR were both flying well before they started production............

i have a feeling that if further saxon drill holes are a success (that is IF) then the SP of this baby will truly rocket........and I don;t mean by 5 cents or 10 cents either..........

i am not trying to be ungrateful ....AGM has had a terrific year ( a turning point in its evolution from explorer to producer) but gees ....AGM is still 50.5 cents ......and I have a value of $1.50 - $2.00 in mind as fair value for its assets and potential assets......
cheers
savtin

Happy New Year to all