misleading!! prove it then if you think that what I said is misleading
cheers laurie
Turn it up mate!!
What about PRRT, company tax, natural field decline, downtime, etc
Sure if production goes to schedule AED should still be undervalued, but think your figures are misleading!!
here here Laurie!!! I thought your valuation was fair enough if overly simplistic
as soon as production is established over the next few weeks we will see a re-rating - its not a question of whether AED is undervalued - but just by how much!!!
AED is a whole lot better fundamentally than most stocks out there - go and sh*tcan the penny dreadfuls!!!!!
here here Laurie!!! I thought your valuation was fair enough if overly simplistic
as soon as production is established over the next few weeks we will see a re-rating - its not a question of whether AED is undervalued - but just by how much!!!
AED is a whole lot better fundamentally than most stocks out there - go and sh*tcan the penny dreadfuls!!!!!
Imajica, I don't want to get personal, but if you cant handle seeing any constructive criticism of a valuation, maybe you should just stick to HC. I agree AED is a lot better fundamentall than many stocks out there, I just disagree with Lauries valuation!
Laurie, I think I proved it with my line
"What about PRRT, company tax, natural field decline, downtime, etc" which you took no consideration of in your valuation. Ok, if not misleading, I believe it to be very unrealistic!
Good luck anyway with AED, as it is my largest holding, I hope everything goes smoothly!!
Ok lets look at it this way
When fully operational early next year 60,000 boo/day
we are at a premium to Tapies say A$100 roughly if not more by then
take that over a year = $2.2B
now take out costs which I said about $500m which includes your above quote re taxes which only leaves the argument of the costs involved OK lets say $700m that leaves $1.5B where am I going wrong
cheers laurie
Can't argue with that one. It's a rather major problem worldwide.Many oil fields in recent times have struggled to achieve and maintain field production at their target levels.
It could be argued that $50 is more likely a worst case minimum price and that the company might be better off delaying production and selling at $100+ given the global trends in oil consumption, discovery and field development.It’s probably more sensible to use $US70 a barrel this year and over the following years slowly trend towards a lower average prive (say $50) then find the PV of future cash flows and then see what value you get!
Shares in Oil Search surge
Australian Broadcasting Corporation
Broadcast: 17/09/2007
Reporter: Neal Woolrich
Rumours of Chinese interest in another Australian resources company have seen its shares soar today.
Transcript
ANDREW ROBERTSON: Rumours of another Chinese interest in Australian resources companies have seen shares in Oil Search soar today. The company rose nearly 12 per cent on reports it could be the target of a $6 billion takeover from a Beijing-backed energy giant. Oil Search denied the claims, but analysts say the company's proven reserves could make it very attractive. Neal Woolrich reports.
NEAL WOOLRICH: The ink is barely dry on Woodside's $35 billion gas sale to China and now the economic powerhouse is rumoured to have another Australian energy source in its sights. Newspaper reports say the China National Petroleum Corporation and Petro China are considering a $5.9-billion bid for Oil Search. The company says it's had no formal takeover approach from any party, but analysts argue that Oil Search would make an attractive target.
HOWARD ELTON, INERSUISEE: A number of oil and gas companies would be looking at Oil Search as a company that has got some substantial reserves and that is worth doing some real in depth research.
CARLO CAIANI, CAIANI & CO: It's a very good mid-sized oil and gas asset. BHP Billiton, among others, had been looking at it for a while. We're surprised actually it hasn't gone before. It's got production at about 10.5 million barrels of oil equivalent.
NEAL WOOLRICH: The takeover rumours sent Oil Search's share price climbing by 11.5 per cent, and helped Tap Oil gain 5 per cent, and AED more than 3 per cent.
HOWARD ELTON: Oil Search is much more significant in scale than Tap, which has a more modest-sized oil fields in Western Australia, and AED, which is a very niche operator that's just about to start producing in the Timor Sea. They may find more oil, but they're not of the scale at this time, that Oil Search is certainly.
NEAL WOOLRICH: Carlo Caiani says Oil Search is now trading on a price earnings multiple of more than 60, and the rumour of a bid for the company is another sign that the Chinese are willing to overpay for assets.
CARLO CAIANI: I wouldn't say desperate. They're willing to overpay. They import about 50 per cent of their crude oil requirements. That is set to increase over time, and essentially they're going to have to just overpay for assets to secure the energy requirements. It's as simple as that.
NEAL WOOLRICH: A bid could come at the top of the market with some analysts forecasting a fall in commodity prices because of a slowdown in the US economy.
CARLO CAIANI: That will have a far greater effect on the world economy than most people think. We do believe that a number of mineral commodities; copper, zinc; the base metals, nickel will go down quite hard. Iron ore we think will go down whether it's next year or the year after depending on negotiations.
NEAL WOOLRICH: Investors are now pinning their hopes on the US Federal Reserve giving the American economy a much-needed boost. The Federal Open Market Committee meets again tomorrow and is expected to deliver an interest rate cut of at least a 0.25 per cent.
been waiting for this for a while, barring no delays we could have production within a week!
good stuff to all longs
IMO production will bring about a major re-rating as this will decrease risk and funds may start buying in due to production status
AED is now listed on Commsec's most popular stock as a buy
CommSec Most Popular Stocks 19 Sept 2007
Sells
BHP
RIO
ANZ
MBL
CBA
IPL
Buys
PBL
QBE
ABS
NAB
AED
WSA
This is what I have been waiting to see.
ps: I IPO'd this stock.
Bucko
Im not sure what the IPO price was but I doubt he cares if AED was only on there for one day..... hes probably cleaned up so he has room to move while he waits for it to go up further. Right?Don't be fooled Bucko as these are the most popular stocks for TODAY only! It changes every day. This isn't an indication as to whether you buy hold or sell but it is interesting to note.
Don't be fooled Bucko as these are the most popular stocks for TODAY only! It changes every day. This isn't an indication as to whether you buy hold or sell but it is interesting to note.
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