AED - AED Oil

[laurie]

Turn it up mate!!

What about PRRT, company tax, natural field decline, downtime, etc

Sure if production goes to schedule AED should still be undervalued, but think your figures are misleading!!

misleading!! prove it then if you think that what I said is misleading I'm not here to MISLEAD anyone these are my views you can chose to believe them or not they are ball park figures I don't have access to company sensitive figures

cheers laurie

 

[imajica]

here here Laurie!!! I thought your valuation was fair enough if overly simplistic

as soon as production is established over the next few weeks we will see a re-rating - its not a question of whether AED is undervalued - but just by how much!!!

AED is a whole lot better fundamentally than most stocks out there - go and sh*tcan the penny dreadfuls!!!!!

 

[laurie]

here here Laurie!!! I thought your valuation was fair enough if overly simplistic

as soon as production is established over the next few weeks we will see a re-rating - its not a question of whether AED is undervalued - but just by how much!!!

AED is a whole lot better fundamentally than most stocks out there - go and sh*tcan the penny dreadfuls!!!!!

I stand to be corrected but it was mentioned somewhere[for the love of me I cannot find it] that Dix would like to return on the first dividend at least equal to or greater than the IPO price of .85c then I will be free carried

cheers laurie

 

[resourceboom]

Imajica, I don't want to get personal, but if you cant handle seeing any constructive criticism of a valuation, maybe you should just stick to HC. I agree AED is a lot better fundamentall than many stocks out there, I just disagree with Lauries valuation!

Laurie, I think I proved it with my line
"What about PRRT, company tax, natural field decline, downtime, etc" which you took no consideration of in your valuation. Ok, if not misleading, I believe it to be very unrealistic!

Good luck anyway with AED, as it is my largest holding, I hope everything goes smoothly!!

here here Laurie!!! I thought your valuation was fair enough if overly simplistic

as soon as production is established over the next few weeks we will see a re-rating - its not a question of whether AED is undervalued - but just by how much!!!

AED is a whole lot better fundamentally than most stocks out there - go and sh*tcan the penny dreadfuls!!!!!

 

[laurie]

Imajica, I don't want to get personal, but if you cant handle seeing any constructive criticism of a valuation, maybe you should just stick to HC. I agree AED is a lot better fundamentall than many stocks out there, I just disagree with Lauries valuation!

Laurie, I think I proved it with my line
"What about PRRT, company tax, natural field decline, downtime, etc" which you took no consideration of in your valuation. Ok, if not misleading, I believe it to be very unrealistic!

Good luck anyway with AED, as it is my largest holding, I hope everything goes smoothly!!

Ok lets look at it this way

When fully operational early next year 60,000 boo/day
we are at a premium to Tapies say A$100 roughly if not more by then
take that over a year = $2.2B
now take out costs which I said about $500m which includes your above quote re taxes which only leaves the argument of the costs involved OK lets say $700m that leaves $1.5B where am I going wrong

cheers laurie

 

[GREENS]

Ok lets look at it this way

When fully operational early next year 60,000 boo/day
we are at a premium to Tapies say A$100 roughly if not more by then
take that over a year = $2.2B
now take out costs which I said about $500m which includes your above quote re taxes which only leaves the argument of the costs involved OK lets say $700m that leaves $1.5B where am I going wrong

cheers laurie

Laurie can I just say you work entirely on the fact that AED will have smooth transition to production, they have not even produced any oil and are as yet to prove themselves as producer (which is potentially a major concern). Many oil fields in recent times have struggled to achieve and maintain field production at their target levels. This is in no way stating that AED can’t achieve this, but is probably why it trades at a discount, because it has yet to prove its worth to the market as a producer. And yes if everything does go smoothly, then AED is a fundamentally undervalued oiler that will be generating considerably large cash flows. The company may even exceed expectations, who knows, but I think valuing a company without taking into consideration a more conservative view can be very misleading. What happens if oil falls to $40 a barrel next year? It’s probably more sensible to use $US70 a barrel this year and over the following years slowly trend towards a lower average prive (say $50) then find the PV of future cash flows and then see what value you get!

 

[laurie]

Fair enough time will tell I'll be very disappointed if this does not propel the sp way past $9 on first oil flow then again I'm biased

cheers laurie

 

[Smurf1976]

Many oil fields in recent times have struggled to achieve and maintain field production at their target levels.

Can't argue with that one. It's a rather major problem worldwide.

It’s probably more sensible to use $US70 a barrel this year and over the following years slowly trend towards a lower average prive (say $50) then find the PV of future cash flows and then see what value you get!

It could be argued that $50 is more likely a worst case minimum price and that the company might be better off delaying production and selling at $100+ given the global trends in oil consumption, discovery and field development.

I remember having great trouble in early 2004 convincing a large ASX listed company which was using oil to fire furnaces, boilers etc that oil would exceed $40 at any time within the next 30 years. In 2005 they decided to convert to gas in what could politely be described as a hurry...

 

[laurie]

I think NWE may have more info on what returns AED will give since their income is based on royalties from AED to be honest I don't know if its out of ground boo or refinery output

cheers laurie

 

[imajica]

globally we are finding far less oil than we are consuming - the oil price will remain strong for decades as demand will consistently outstrip supply - the rapidly expanding economies of China, India etc will ensure that any asx- listed large scale oil producer will shine for years to come - AED's puffin field is coming on line at the perfect time - the oil is being sold above Tapis grade prices - show me another 'green chip' oil stock of this calibre on the ASX - there isn't one - you either have Woodside or Santos etc respresenting the Blue Chip Brigade and a host of penny dreadfuls - ROC and AWE and PSA are fairly credible however for projected cashflows - AED is king!!

 

[imajica]

with a strong lead from wall street we should see a surge today in stocks with solid fundamentals such as AED

only a few weeks from pumping that Tapis crude

 

[The Mint Man]

Hey guys,
I posted the following in the OSH thread but I think that this would be of interest to you as well because AED was mentioned/shown on the programe.

If you missed Lateline Business last night then you will want to watch it here http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200709/r184144_683326.asx
OSH was the lead story, first up and got quite a wrap... very good exposure I think I will be holding on for the ride somehow
Just so you know, the link above is for broadband, windows media player.

If your not the video type though I have supplied the transcript below

Shares in Oil Search surge​

Australian Broadcasting Corporation
Broadcast: 17/09/2007
Reporter: Neal Woolrich

Rumours of Chinese interest in another Australian resources company have seen its shares soar today.

Transcript
ANDREW ROBERTSON: Rumours of another Chinese interest in Australian resources companies have seen shares in Oil Search soar today. The company rose nearly 12 per cent on reports it could be the target of a $6 billion takeover from a Beijing-backed energy giant. Oil Search denied the claims, but analysts say the company's proven reserves could make it very attractive. Neal Woolrich reports.

NEAL WOOLRICH: The ink is barely dry on Woodside's $35 billion gas sale to China and now the economic powerhouse is rumoured to have another Australian energy source in its sights. Newspaper reports say the China National Petroleum Corporation and Petro China are considering a $5.9-billion bid for Oil Search. The company says it's had no formal takeover approach from any party, but analysts argue that Oil Search would make an attractive target.

HOWARD ELTON, INERSUISEE: A number of oil and gas companies would be looking at Oil Search as a company that has got some substantial reserves and that is worth doing some real in depth research.

CARLO CAIANI, CAIANI & CO: It's a very good mid-sized oil and gas asset. BHP Billiton, among others, had been looking at it for a while. We're surprised actually it hasn't gone before. It's got production at about 10.5 million barrels of oil equivalent.

NEAL WOOLRICH: The takeover rumours sent Oil Search's share price climbing by 11.5 per cent, and helped Tap Oil gain 5 per cent, and AED more than 3 per cent.

HOWARD ELTON: Oil Search is much more significant in scale than Tap, which has a more modest-sized oil fields in Western Australia, and AED, which is a very niche operator that's just about to start producing in the Timor Sea. They may find more oil, but they're not of the scale at this time, that Oil Search is certainly.

NEAL WOOLRICH: Carlo Caiani says Oil Search is now trading on a price earnings multiple of more than 60, and the rumour of a bid for the company is another sign that the Chinese are willing to overpay for assets.

CARLO CAIANI: I wouldn't say desperate. They're willing to overpay. They import about 50 per cent of their crude oil requirements. That is set to increase over time, and essentially they're going to have to just overpay for assets to secure the energy requirements. It's as simple as that.

NEAL WOOLRICH: A bid could come at the top of the market with some analysts forecasting a fall in commodity prices because of a slowdown in the US economy.

CARLO CAIANI: That will have a far greater effect on the world economy than most people think. We do believe that a number of mineral commodities; copper, zinc; the base metals, nickel will go down quite hard. Iron ore we think will go down whether it's next year or the year after depending on negotiations.

NEAL WOOLRICH: Investors are now pinning their hopes on the US Federal Reserve giving the American economy a much-needed boost. The Federal Open Market Committee meets again tomorrow and is expected to deliver an interest rate cut of at least a 0.25 per cent.

Let us know your thoughts.

Cheers

 

[laurie]

Thanks Mint Man for the link it's nice to know that AED is a "Niche Operator"

cheers laurie

 

[bigdog]

AED $7.82 +$0.20 +2.62% high of $7.86 154,806 shares $1,201,524 @ 19-Sep 11:38:05


ASX ann today
19/09/2007 Puffin NE Update
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00760558

Puffin North East Development Update - FPSO Connected to the Mooring-Riser

AED Oil Ltd has taken a major step towards achieving First Oil production from its 100 per cent owned Puffin North East oil field in the Timor Sea. The Floating Production, Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel Front Puffin has successfully connected to the mooring-riser system in preparation for commencing production. The mooring-riser system holds the FPSO on location, as well as connecting the subsea system to the vessel.

Installation of the subsea sytems is now complete. Hydro-testing of the subsea system and the controls is presently underway. Initial testing results has identified that a seal and a connector require replacement. The diving vessel is presently on route to Darwin to change over the diving crew and to restock supplies. Upon its return to the field the remedial work is expected to take approximately one week. Accordingly AED is on track for First Oil around the end of this month.

Further to the ASX Release on 6 September 2007 David Dix (Executive Chairman) and related entities has exercised 18,163,192 options in AED and Ken Tregonning (Managing Director) and related entities has exercised 13,703,290 options in the Company.

 

[dj_420]

been waiting for this for a while, barring no delays we could have production within a week!

good stuff to all longs

IMO production will bring about a major re-rating as this will decrease risk and funds may start buying in due to production status

 

[laurie]

been waiting for this for a while, barring no delays we could have production within a week!

good stuff to all longs

IMO production will bring about a major re-rating as this will decrease risk and funds may start buying in due to production status

Yep jumped on @ .85c with IPO hope that it's smooth sailing from here with blue skies and clear water ahead I hope Dix & Co. would use some of their cash to go on a shopping spree

cheers laurie

 

[bucko]

AED is now listed on Commsec's most popular stock as a buy

CommSec Most Popular Stocks 19 Sept 2007
Sells
BHP
RIO
ANZ
MBL
CBA
IPL
Buys
PBL
QBE
ABS
NAB
AED
WSA

This is what I have been waiting to see.

ps: I IPO'd this stock.

Bucko

 

[champ2003]

AED is now listed on Commsec's most popular stock as a buy

CommSec Most Popular Stocks 19 Sept 2007
Sells
BHP
RIO
ANZ
MBL
CBA
IPL
Buys
PBL
QBE
ABS
NAB
AED
WSA

This is what I have been waiting to see.

ps: I IPO'd this stock.

Bucko

Don't be fooled Bucko as these are the most popular stocks for TODAY only! It changes every day. This isn't an indication as to whether you buy hold or sell but it is interesting to note.

 

[The Mint Man]

Don't be fooled Bucko as these are the most popular stocks for TODAY only! It changes every day. This isn't an indication as to whether you buy hold or sell but it is interesting to note.

Im not sure what the IPO price was but I doubt he cares if AED was only on there for one day..... hes probably cleaned up so he has room to move while he waits for it to go up further. Right?

Cheers

 

[laurie]

Don't be fooled Bucko as these are the most popular stocks for TODAY only! It changes every day. This isn't an indication as to whether you buy hold or sell but it is interesting to note.

Commsec and ANZ were the lead managers for the IPO

cheers laurie