ADY - Admiralty Resources

[PhoenixXx]

No substantial announcement today, but SP is about to break 30ct.

"The Board of Directors are delighted to announce that Admiralty Resources NL
has joined the S&P ASX 300 index. Our addition to the index was announced
under additions on the S&P website for the materials sector. This means that
Index funds will now be acquiring shares on market to our market weighting in
the Index."

 

[roland]

A fair bit of churn at .25 - .26 should help to create a base for the next move up. Probably end up flat or a little negative for the day.

 

[rub92me]

A fair bit of churn at .25 - .26 should help to create a base for the next move up. Probably end up flat or a little negative for the day.

I was expecting to see more profit taking today than we've seen so far based on the high volumes that went through the previous days. I'm hoping for consolidation around the 25 cents level over the next couple of days as the volume drops off. Ready for the next announcement :

 

[roland]

I haven't studied the Bulman project to any extent, but I am not overly excited at sinking funds into "yet another zinc mine prospect"

Sounds like a comittment ADY has set up somewhere in the past that they reluctantly have to follow through on.

Has anyone looked into the Bulman prospect enough to provide any opinion?

 

[roland]

Bulman:

This is from the NT Department of Minerals & Energy website

Moonlight Mining is ADY's wholly owned subsidiary

Undeveloped zinc-lead-silver resources
Resource figures derived from company reports to the Australian Stock Exchange or from NT Geological Survey.

Significant undeveloped Zn-Pb-Ag resources in the McArthur Basin include:

Deposit Ore and grade Extraction Contact
Coxco 7.8 Mt @ 4.2% Zn, 1.1% Pb Opencut McArthur River Mining
Bulman 1.2 Mt @ 11% Zn and 6.5% Pb Opencut Moonlight Mining NL


McArthur Basin
The Palaeo- to Mesoproterozoic McArthur Basin (1800-1500 Ma) is exposed over an area of about 180 000 km² in the northeastern Northern Territory. It unconformably overlies Palaeoproterozoic metamorphosed and deformed rocks of the Pine Creek Orogen to the west, Murphy Inlier to the south and Arnhem Inlier to the northeast (see Geological regions of the NT). The Murphy Inlier was probably a palaeogeographical high separating the McArthur Basin from the South Nicholson Basin and Lawn Hill Platform. Phanerozoic strata of the Georgina, Dunmarra, Carpentaria and Arafura basins unconformably overlie the McArthur Basin succession. McArthur Basin strata apparently continue beneath these basins and may be continuous with the Tomkinson Creek Province of the Tennant Region.

Within the McArthur Basin, two north-trending fault zones, the Walker Fault Zone (WFZ) and Batten Fault Zone (BFZ), are separated by the east-trending Urapunga Fault Zone (see McArthur Basin regional setting). Tectonically 'stable' shelves to the east and west flank these relatively deformed fault zones. The Caledon Shelf to the east and the Arnhem Shelf to the west flank the WFZ while the BFZ is flanked by the Wearyan Shelf to the east and Bauhinia Shelf to the west. The 'Fault Zones' are 50-80 km wide and hundreds of kilometres long.

The McArthur Basin succession comprises sandstone, shale, carbonate, and interbedded volcanic and intrusive igneous rocks. The Tawallah Group and equivalents maintain a thickness of 3-4.5 km in both the fault zones and shelves, while the McArthur Group and equivalents thicken to 5 km in the fault zones. A deep seismic reflection survey (McArthur Basin Seismic Survey) undertaken in collaboration with Geoscience Australia showed that the entire succession is essentially horizontal and about 8 km thick. There was no evidence in the seismic data for the Batten Fault Zone (previously described as the Batten Trough) to be a separate depocentre, with the sedimentary succession appearing to continue in both directions away from the implied boundaries of the 'trough'.

The McArthur Basin is amongst the most prospective regions of the North Australian Craton. It hosts the world-class HYC lead-zinc-silver deposit (McArthur Mine), the Redbank Copper Mine and several smaller uranium and base metal deposits, as well as diamond-bearing kimberlite pipes at Merlin and Abner Range.

Last Updated: 21 February 2008



Here's a PDF on the McArthur Basin in NT that is a little more technical for those who are interested: http://conferences.minerals.nt.gov.au/cabsproceedings/Final_papers/P09_Duffett_et_al.pdf

 

[roland]

noticed this post today from Top Stocks:

top 20 grew by about 8%, equates to roughly 85M of everything that went through to end of Monday (say 275M?) stayed went and stayed into top 20 holders... fair bit more would be expected to holders outside top20. Still room for significant trade play. Now wait for next week's figures to make sure it stayed there, and that the apparent plays of last few days are going to be consistent with what numbers we can see...

Seems like the Top 20 increased holdings by around 100M shares this week. ANZ up to 7%, HSBC up to 9%

I added another 20% this week

 

[renim]

The Macarthur River Deposit is flat, like coal, and unbelievably suited to open cut mining except for the environmental aspect of zinc/lead sulphide mining through a river bed in a tropical (read cyclonic) area of some environment value.

The Macarthur River deposit was also really had to process, but that should be ok now.

Macarthur River will generate untold profit for X Strata if they can open cut it. This Bullman deposit could become very interesting.

 

[kagemusha]

I am from Croatia, sorry on my bad english.
Can someone help me, how many tons ADY will produce potash and lithium when reache their maximum output?
Thanks in advance

 

[rub92me]

According to the managing director Phil Thomas in his response to a Topstocks question, ADY expects to produce 9,000 tonnes of Lithium Cartbonate per annum by July 2009 and 17,000 tonnes per annum by July 2010. Potash is still unknown, but should have an estimate by July.

 

[roland]

Not sure what spurred the interest today and the resulting 6.12% advance in the SP.

I let one parcel go yesterday at 0.245 to grab some profit and reduce my average. Thought I would get them back at 0.235, but that wasn't to be

No matter, My current holdings are still 25% up, so I am happy.

I am tempted to go a little heavier with ADY, but have to remind myself that we are still playing with a spec with not a lot of infrastructure and share dilution issues etc, etc.

 

[kagemusha]

According to the managing director Phil Thomas in his response to a Topstocks question, ADY expects to produce 9,000 tonnes of Lithium Cartbonate per annum by July 2009 and 17,000 tonnes per annum by July 2010. Potash is still unknown, but should have an estimate by July.

Thanks rub, and what about tons of iron ore in years 2009, 2010, 2011 ?

P.s. Can we believe Phil Thomas? I notice that he sell his share lately, am I correct?

 

[kagemusha]

I find this research :" After only one full year of lithium carbonate
production from its lithium brine operation at the Salar del
Hombre Muerto in the Argentine Andes, FMC shuttered the
facility in July (Brown, 1999) except for limited production for
a specialized market (Saller and O’Driscoll, 2000, p. 45). The
operation was designed to produce about 12,000 metric tons per
year (t/yr) of lithium carbonate and about 5,500 t/yr of lithium
chloride (North American Minerals News, 1998), but technical
problems and poor market conditions forced FMC to reevaluate
its project, choosing to close the facility and purchase most of
its lithium carbonate requirements from other sources

Maybe Thomas sell his stake because he knows about problems?!

http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/lithium/450400.pdf

 

[rub92me]

kagemusha, I'm happy to help, but the iron ore info you ask for is on the ADY website explained in quite some detail.
For the record Phil Thomas did not sell his stake in ADY. He lost part of his holding in the Opes Prime which was then sold by ANZ.
Also I don't think an article of about 9 years ago has much relevance; market situation for Lithium has changed dramatically since then and technique to extract Lithium from Brine has improved.

 

[roland]

Well, another day of day traders playing around - but at least we gained another $0.02 or 7.69% ... pretty good in anyone's book.

Although I have worried myself to death about taking my now 33.92% profits, I have decided to longer term ADY.

In light of the following (courtesy of a Top Stocks posting), there are quite a number of pieces of the ADY foundation puzzle soon to be set - any of which, with a related announcement will push the SP ahead:

2 x JORCS
1 X SHOUGANG 10 year contract (imminent)
1 X WISCO 10 year contract (likely imminent as per Shougang)
1 X LITHIUM TENDER SALES (After Rincon ann this can't be far off)
1 X DEMERGER (Likely have to wait on tender but coming)
1 X NEW BULMAN ACTIVITY including JORC drilling commencing 25th JUNE

I am also feeling that I wouldn't want to miss out on the demerger offering.

How may others are still holding?

 

[renim]

i tend to hold, this one gives me the warm and fuzzies.
check out yesterdays big mover in Japan. Yuasa batteries.
reason, some joint announcement about making batteries for mitsubishi electric cars.

nb world lithium battery production (for tools etc) would equate to 100 000 car per annum equivalent. to replace oil in cars will require about a 100 fold increase in battery production.

so who owns the old greenbushes mine?

oh yeah, the two stories i follow for buying shares
1 China's ascendency
2 the displacement of super spike oil by electricity for cars

this affects many facets, ie go long on parking lots, go short on 7-11s

 

[MS+Tradesim]

I am holding. I have about half of what I started with 4 yrs ago though as I've used equity to buy other positions.

 

[kagemusha]

Can somone tell me when is over this CFR contract with WISCO which is bad for ADY ?
If I understood well,- ADY must deliver more 4 panamax to fulfill obligation to WISCO and then start new negotiations with buyers? Correct?

 

[MS+Tradesim]

Can somone tell me when is over this CFR contract with WISCO which is bad for ADY ?
If I understood well,- ADY must deliver more 4 panamax to fulfill obligation to WISCO and then start new negotiations with buyers? Correct?

There are only a few shipments left of the original contract. After that, they have a contract for about 3 yrs on 50% of their production to WISCO, then a heads of agreement for another 7 yrs for same thing.

They are finalising negotiations right now for the other 50% of their production for the next 10 years with Shougang.

 

[roland]

An interesting note on world lithium resources:

World Lithium Reserves Found to be Abundant in New Report


R. Keith Evans, a geologist and industrial minerals expert has issued a free report on the world's Lithium resources and reserves.


San Diego, CA, April 04, 2008 --(PR.com)-- Concerns over a shortage of Lithium supply are unfounded according to a newly issued report from geologist R. Keith Evans.

According to Evans:

"In 1976 a National Research Council Panel estimated that Western World lithium reserves and resources totaled 10.6 million tonnes as elemental lithium.

Subsequent discoveries, particularly in brines in the southern Andes and the plateaus of western China and Tibet have increased the tonnages significantly. Geothermal brines and lithium bearing clays add to the total.

This current estimate totals 28.4 million tonnes Li equivalent to more than 150.0 million tonnes of lithium carbonate of which nearly 14.0 million tonnes lithium (about 74.0 million tonnes of carbonate) are at active or proposed operations.

This can be compared with current demand for lithium chemicals which approximates to 84,000 tonnes as lithium carbonate equivalents (16,000 tonnes Li).

Concerns regarding lithium availability for hybrid or electric vehicle batteries or other foreseeable applications are unfounded."

Evans has posted his world report, free of charge, at http://lithiumabundance.blogspot.com/

The immense interest in fueling our future transport through electricity storage cells provides a lot of research material for study on the net. Lithium is obviously going to play a big part in the supply of the raw materials, but my impression is that it is not the only direction we will travel nor is ADY unique in it's own resources.

I remember some press regarding the University of NSW and the "plastic battery", I'll have to try and find it again. Virtually indestructable from memory with almost limitless discharge/recharge cycles.

I am worried that lithium will only be in vogue with batteries until something better is devised.

 

[evwatkins]

well dont forget the potential of the Potash, this could in time be more valuable than the lithium side.