ADY - Admiralty Resources

[roland]

I'm out

My self imposed stop loss got me out at $.21 with a very modest gain. Not the result I was hoping for. I'll buy back at .20 if it gets there, otherwise good luck to all ADY holders.

 

[roland]

Since PT from ADY doesn't post comments here, I have take n the liberty of copying the response from the Top Stocks website for information to ASF'ers

jorc and consolidation Asked by rileyi on 26-06-2008
Hello Phil,
Thank you for your previous reply.
Announcements out today make it clear that we could see a possible further issue of shares up to another 40m for the balance of $7m loan outstanding. Since discussion of share consolidation at 1 for every 3.4, we have now gone to over 1 for every 4 held...a material change. Is there any other issues that could arise that may see this conversion rate become worse again. It would appear from the price action on the market since the announcement, that these surprises are not appreciated, and being forewarned is a far more comfortable position to be in.

secondly, other than today, we only have 2 more days before end of quarter.Are we still to expect the jorc announcements before 30 June as previously stated. If not, can you give us any idea of how long the delay may be.

Thanking you again for your attention to these matters.
Response From Phillip
Hi,

The Company has not received a further request from YA Global Investments for an additional conversion.

I have understanding for the discontent in the market regarding the conversion but it also has a bright side to it. The Company has reduce its debt by 50% in 2 weeks time.

Santa Barbara, which is our only cash producing project at the moment, would have to produce 350,000 tonnes of iron ore to be able to pay $13m. As you may realise, 350,000 tonnes is almost the production for 2007-2008.

The projects that Admiralty Resources NL are running are cash hungry projects as they are in an initial expansion stage and pilot stage and if we want to expand as quickly as possible, the convertible note is the way to go.

The dilution will be almost unnoticeable when the ADY shares consolidation takes place prior to the demerger.

SRK Consulting sent a draft of the JORC resources for Mariposa and Mirador about a week ago. I noticed a few geostatical errors and I spent a day with them at the mines on Wednesday. I am reviewing the second draft and will announce to the market as soon as it is ready.

Regards,

PT

 

[aleckara]

Since PT from ADY doesn't post comments here, I have take n the liberty of copying the response from the Top Stocks website for information to ASF'ers

Thanks for that.

I am very interested to see those JORC's. They have something like 9 mines and if those mines are not minor and can all contribute as much at least as the current one then financing should be easier with Shougang and the banks should they need that. My short term concerns with ADY is the reputation of them missing deadlines, the predictability of the price pattern hinting towards some sort of manipulation and the effects that this has on their capital raisings.

Since I'm a either hold or sell investor (have no choice in the matter) the only issue I'm concerned with after all that other nonsense is their ability to produce, their production profitability (which I hope will improve) and their cash flow. I think other investors share those concerns hence the price as it is.

 

[roland]

Another response from PT courtesy of the Top Stocks forum. Looks like PT is well aware of some of the shareholders concerns and can be applauded for taking time to respond to forum questions.

Responses From Phillip Thomas

Improving short term production rate Asked by mjp on 26-06-2008
Hi PT. Thanks as always for your willingness to respond on the forum.

In your 5 jun Santa Barbara update you stated that “The monthly target for June is 45,000 tonnes” and, answering rileyi’s recent questions, you have indicated that production is actually running at 35,000-40,000 tonnes. Thanks for being willing to provide that information and it is good to hear that the plant is largely up and running again.

Are you able to give some indication of the problems stopping Santa Barbara achieving the target production and what actions are taking place to correct this? I am assuming, with crusher delivery at about 4 months, that getting up to current target production would be a priority right now?

How long do you think before that 45,000t target production might be achieved?

I appreciate this is just one of a number of activities going on at present, but you may recognise that shareholders are looking for any evidence that the production problems at SB are being well address under Michael Clarke. If there is any other info you could share to help with that I'm all ears!

Many thanks – and best wishes in your endeavors.
Mjp
Response From Phillip
Hi,

June has not finished yet and we could still reach the 45,000 tonnes target.

The plant has been able to produce that amount before, so the plant can produce such amount without the install of new crushers.

Besalco Maquinarias has a service agreement with Minera Santa Barbara to do the open pit mining, ore processing and transporting to the Caleta Port. As per previous announcements, Besalco has not been fully fulfilling their contractual obligations and negotiations are taken place in order to rectify this situation.

Once we receive the funds to expand and purchase, install and test new plant equipment, our target is to move forward till we reach the 135,000 tonnes per month. Hence MSB's achievements depends on funds availability, equipment delivery and success in the negotiations with the plant operator and ports to increase production and shipping capacity.

Michael Clarke is doing a fantastic job at managing MSB and he has got the support of the Board for his near future plans for MSB.

Regards,

PT

 

[lioness]

Roland, you sold at the worst time. PT has stated he has a draft of 2 JORCS on his desk and is reviewing them. I suspect both will be released next week as they have a habit of releasing announcements in 2's and 3's after each other.

Also it has been falling on low volume, so even though I am sitting on a 10% loss, today was a doji star indicating it MAY be a key reversal day.

Also, I expect the selling is tax loss season so from Tuesday I will not be surprised to see this up again.

Lastly, PT has stated on his website that the demerger is 90% finished and is nearly there, so if we have to wait another month, big deal.

I understand your cap loss management rules so don't sweat it, but it would have to take a bad announcement to send this back to 16 cents.

 

[roland]

Roland, you sold at the worst time. PT has stated he has a draft of 2 JORCS on his desk and is reviewing them. I suspect both will be released next week as they have a habit of releasing announcements in 2's and 3's after each other.

Also it has been falling on low volume, so even though I am sitting on a 10% loss, today was a doji star indicating it MAY be a key reversal day.

Also, I expect the selling is tax loss season so from Tuesday I will not be surprised to see this up again.

Lastly, PT has stated on his website that the demerger is 90% finished and is nearly there, so if we have to wait another month, big deal.

I understand your cap loss management rules so don't sweat it, but it would have to take a bad announcement to send this back to 16 cents.

Yes, I understand all that. Actually I am back on board with a smaller holding at .22. I offloaded most of my exposure, took a profit, still on board for any action and can sleep tonight without worrying - so all good

 

[lioness]

Yes, I understand all that. Actually I am back on board with a smaller holding at .22. I offloaded most of my exposure, took a profit, still on board for any action and can sleep tonight without worrying - so all good

Fair enough Roland, I still hold a very large amount as this one never goes down without a fight!

 

[roland]

Fair enough Roland, I still hold a very large amount as this one never goes down without a fight!

Yep, I used to be like that, stubborn, but have learnt my lesson the hard way. Now I would rather run away and come back to play another day

 

[michael_selway]

Yep, I used to be like that, stubborn, but have learnt my lesson the hard way. Now I would rather run away and come back to play another day

Hey i dont hodl this one anymore? it has Potash & Lithium!

http://www.ady.com.au/uploads/news/c45147dee729311ef5b5c3003946c48f.pdf

Also in the above report they put $1.50 target on it

thx

MS

 

[lioness]

I hold and will continue to hold.

This will eventually be worth much more with all there resources base, once cashflow starts there will be no stopping her.

Refer to your stated report as they state it is worth $1.50 post demerger.

Nice report and well researched.

 

[roland]

Not a lot of original research there, most lifted from the ADY website. JORC was due today but didn't happen, disappointed quite a few. Pity they got Phil's surname wrong

HSBC have topped up their holdings to 15.5% - that's a good sign

 

[lioness]

Not a lot of original research there, most lifted from the ADY website. JORC was due today but didn't happen, disappointed quite a few. Pity they got Phil's surname wrong

HSBC have topped up their holdings to 15.5% - that's a good sign

Roland, get smart here, they were never going to release JORC until tax loss was officially over. Expect JORC in the next few days and then several pieces of the jigsaw will come together quickly with demerger news.

I am expecting a very large increase in volume soon.

 

[roland]

Roland, get smart here, they were never going to release JORC until tax loss was officially over. Expect JORC in the next few days and then several pieces of the jigsaw will come together quickly with demerger news.

I am expecting a very large increase in volume soon.

Well lioness, I wish I was a hell of a lot smarter. I was smart enough to stop out of a loss last week, smart enough to be back in and sitting even with my holdings in ADY, smart enough to quickly buy in if a run occurs, but not dumb enough to stop out again if it drops - best I can do.

 

[gfresh]

The broker recommendation on their website, which michael posted above, has some good information for those who need a detailed rundown ..

If ADY management can pull their socks up, and meet deliverables as stated, I think confidence will return, and less games will be played with the SP - allowing that sort of pricing to be achieved.

At the moment, I think it's really a confidence issue. That has been eroded a lot in the last 12 months, but of course the Directors will realise if they wish to do well themselves as major shareholders they need to pick up their game. They seem to be making the first inroads into this, but we'll see.

 

[chrissyoscar]

There's so much to look forward to but the way this stock is played with makes a lot of people nervous.
If we can get a few good announcements this week that'll give those on the side lines the confidence to jump in and then things should start moving.
The Lithium side of it all has everyone excited and ADY has heaps of it.

 

[renim]

a couple of dojis, lets see if it means anything or is a blank.

if you guys like lithium what about the stock orocombre ORE.

 

[lioness]

a couple of dojis, lets see if it means anything or is a blank.

if you guys like lithium what about the stock orocombre ORE.

Also, the weekly has put in a doji, it means a reversal is coming particularly with 2 in a row. I like the very low volume day today in the face of a bloodbath indicating very few are willing to sell. A good sign. All we need is a big JORC from PT on the Fe and tis will breakout quickly.

 

[roland]

Some of the lack of volume is due to the day traders losing interest. Sentiment is negative and the lack of progress is weighing heavily on confidence.

 

[lioness]

I don't agree with that Roland.

Everyone knows the news is due any day, so the fact no-one is dumping makes me smile now. If they had a sniff of bad news this would be sub 20 by now.

Stochastics also indicate they are ready for a move. JORC is going to have to disappoint for this to collapse. I agree with you though, it is balancing precariously at the moment in this bloodbath of a market, so any news that isn't up to it mean she will be slaughtered.

 

[roland]

Without a couple of ticks up, we could be looking down the barrel at $0.16. Really need the JORCs or at least some sort of positive news.