ADY - Admiralty Resources

[roland]

Got my parcel at .21 - sort of happened really quick .... someone jumped ship and ate up all the buyers at .21.

I now have another order in for .19

 

[roland]

Shougang Update
• 10 year takeoff contract for 50% of production being negotiated
• Minimum projected tonnage is 25 million tonnes over ten years when expansion
is completed, at a value of US$1.8 Billion at current FOB prices
• Six senior Shougang executives to Visit Cia Minera Santa Barbara in June 2008

Glad I got those .21

The ADY story just keeps getting better

 

[blehgg]

awesome picked some up yesterday for 0.215 -

~ guess they always mini-trade halt for announcements?

 

[EasternGrey1]

I think part of the reason for ADY's abysmal share price performance recently - on top of the ANZ Opes Prime mess - has been the cash flow position. Thursday's[?] cash flow report showed enough cash for 3 days.

We know that ADY has a heap of cash coming in soon, now that it has started its iron ore exports, but will it run out of cash first?

I think yesterday's announcement gives the answer - they raised $1m by issuing shares. What that suggests is that they don't need a lot of cash to tide them over. Even if they do another $2-3m that doesn't dilute too much.

My reading is that they will survive and thrive. I bought at prices from 0.26 down to 0.18 (more at 0.18 thankfully), so I'm now about all square but feeling very confident.

Has anyone put a value on ADY?

 

[roland]

I think part of the reason for ADY's abysmal share price performance recently - on top of the ANZ Opes Prime mess - has been the cash flow position. Thursday's[?] cash flow report showed enough cash for 3 days.

We know that ADY has a heap of cash coming in soon, now that it has started its iron ore exports, but will it run out of cash first?

I think yesterday's announcement gives the answer - they raised $1m by issuing shares. What that suggests is that they don't need a lot of cash to tide them over. Even if they do another $2-3m that doesn't dilute too much.

My reading is that they will survive and thrive. I bought at prices from 0.26 down to 0.18 (more at 0.18 thankfully), so I'm now about all square but feeling very confident.

Has anyone put a value on ADY?

Another reason EG, the demerger of the Chemical/Ore businesses adds an unknown factor which could de-value the holdings. The details are not known yet but ADY suggest that the ADY component is most likely to be worth less - reflecting the higher value placed in Rincon Lithium. That being said, one would suspect that total value should be the same ???

In any case, I picked up some ore at .19 yesterday

 

[lingqi]

well, New Ann states that 28.6m shares worth of 5 million dollars issued. So strange why they don't just tell us what price each share issued at? I am not bothered to do the calculation myself. It is only about 0.175 per share, which may explain the recent SP dropping from 0.235 to 0.19.

 

[nikki]

Rub92me, are you still around! What's your view on the share issue!! I am not surprised that Phil needs the money but why raise 1 million @ 21.5 cents a share and then 5 million @ 17.5. He will soon run out of interested buyers to raise capital if he keeps screwing them around like this. At least the 17.5 cent buyers might see some profits assuming he can keep the company afloat.

Roland, do you still have your 19 cent shares. I decided to buy @ 19.5 after selling my earlier lot last week but once again ADY has surprised me. I should have seen it comming given the serious and not so normal dumping of shares that took place last week. I keeping on telling myself that I will never trade ADY especially with all the other stocks running wild!!! Not sure why i keep buying them Let's hope that we will not see our shares go lower than 17cents. I have no money left to buy anymore!! Maybe i will CFD them if they hit that range again.

I think i need therapy to ween myself of this stock..........

 

[j4mesa]

Honestly speaking, in terms of projects & resources , development stage, I have no doubt in thsi company.....

However, the dilution as a result of capital raising does not do any good in terms of share price perspective.....

 

[rub92me]

Rub92me, are you still around! What's your view on the share issue!! I am not surprised that Phil needs the money but why raise 1 million @ 21.5 cents a share and then 5 million @ 17.5. He will soon run out of interested buyers to raise capital if he keeps screwing them around like this. At least the 17.5 cent buyers might see some profits assuming he can keep the company afloat.

I think it's fair to assume that they raise capital at the best price the market will give them. Obviously the iron ore production has been well below their goals/plans which has caused tightness in the cashflow. As I've stated before, I'm in this for the long term. For some people long term seems to be a couple of months , for me it's 3-5 years.

 

[roland]

Roland, do you still have your 19 cent shares. I decided to buy @ 19.5 after selling my earlier lot last week but once again ADY has surprised me.

Hi nikki, I have .19, .20, .21, .23 and sadly .33 - my faith hasn't waned, I'll grab some more if it falls. Average is .22, but I have bought and sold a heap and taken profits, so I am in very good shape with ADY.

 

[roland]

Quite a lack-lustre day today with ADY. Only 11mil volume and the market depth is against us today. At least there is an obvious resistance to losing SP value.

I suppose that the $5 Mil raising by 3rd party investment rather than extending loan facilities should be taken positively - there is obvious confidence shown with added investor interest.

A slight dilution of share value is sitting much better with me as opposed to a reduction of company capacity to pull a profit due to burdens of loan repayments.

 

[EasternGrey1]

Dilution looks like about 3%(?). I agree with roland.

I get the impression that the market is valuing ADY for its iron ore alone. Maybe iron ore people aren't interested in Lithium, and vice versa. My feeling is that the lithium is worth at least as much as the iron ore (it's what I bought ADY for). So bring on the spin-off!!!

 

[roland]

Quite right, Iron Ore wasn't even a thought - just a pile of rubble in the way of the Lithium - not a bad bit of pocket money though

Then there is the Potash - that wasn't on my radar initially either - again another opportunity to bring a few bucks in.

I am also hoping that ADY will sell off the Zinc propects at Bullman and the Nickel at Pike, seems to me the $$$'s could be spent better on the salt lake

 

[mapna]

WOnder why ADY has been under selling pressure as such. Maybe it is time for the Mgt to make some ann. to inform investors about what is happening ??? investors need an update ...

 

[roland]

WOnder why ADY has been under selling pressure as such. Maybe it is time for the Mgt to make some ann. to inform investors about what is happening ??? investors need an update ...

I don't think that the selling pressure is a lot different to the rest of the resources market - in fact I think ADY is holding up quite well.

There will be some perceived dilution of share value with the recent $0.17 issue to "sophisticated" investors.

I see this as an opportunity to grab some more, which I did today at $0.17 and have an order in at $0.16 just in case I can get the chance to get in lower.

 

[roland]

WOnder why ADY has been under selling pressure as such. Maybe it is time for the Mgt to make some ann. to inform investors about what is happening ??? investors need an update ...

I don't think that the selling pressure is a lot different to the rest of the resources market - in fact I think ADY is holding up quite well.

There will be some perceived dilution of share value with the recent $0.17 issue to "sophisticated" investors.

I see this as an opportunity to grab some more, which I did today at $0.17 and have an order in at $0.16 just in case I can get the chance to get in lower.

 

[aleckara]

I don't think that the selling pressure is a lot different to the rest of the resources market - in fact I think ADY is holding up quite well.

There will be some perceived dilution of share value with the recent $0.17 issue to "sophisticated" investors.

I see this as an opportunity to grab some more, which I did today at $0.17 and have an order in at $0.16 just in case I can get the chance to get in lower.

I believe the capital raising just to pay wages and such has not helped them. The Opes parcel was probably taken up quickly by people that were expecting it to bounce back once the selling ceased which it didn't while a lot of other speculative stocks have recovered (actually most I've looked at have recovered - just I'm not in them). However the risk factors after that capital raising and the last cash flow statement show that they are running out of money and I think that scares a lot of people when all the iron ore miners are going great guns. Sure Lithium/potash is the main prize, but iron ore if it was running properly could have kept them afloat enough to take advantage of their other resource.

I think it is priced accordingly to the risk level that people want to take at the moment. The next few months will be crucial for ADY in terms of its ability to survive as a company. IMO it is a stock that will either rocket, or go bust. It's prospects are good, but capitalising on those prospects may be a different story. Only time will tell.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Hey guys,

I've picked up quite a few ADY today as I see it wayy overdue for a bounce for the following reasons


1. Chart wise 16c is very very strong support and so to me there appears little downside from 16.5c

2. The company is currently producing and shipping Iron Ore profitably from its South American mine and has 2 Chinese offtake partners

3. The company has been negotiating a $1.8Billion offtake agreement with a Chinese group, if this is signed off on I'd expect the stock to go for a mad dash to the moon

4. The company has suffered heavily at the hands of Opes Prime, with some 200M shares being dumped on mkt causing the current SP collapse

5. The company is in the process of a demerger of its Lithium/Potash assets which alone I reckon are worth 20c ADY, the demerger will also give share holders a 1:1 free share post consolidation = 1:3.5 pre consolidation


So for all those reasons I expect a rebound off the current lows

Cheers

 

[barney]

Hey guys,

I've picked up quite a few ADY today as I see it wayy overdue for a bounce for the following reasons


1. Chart wise 16c is very very strong support and so to me there appears little downside from 16.5c

2. The company is currently producing and shipping Iron Ore profitably from its South American mine and has 2 Chinese offtake partners

3. The company has been negotiating a $1.8Billion offtake agreement with a Chinese group, if this is signed off on I'd expect the stock to go for a mad dash to the moon

4. The company has suffered heavily at the hands of Opes Prime, with some 200M shares being dumped on mkt causing the current SP collapse

5. The company is in the process of a demerger of its Lithium/Potash assets which alone I reckon are worth 20c ADY, the demerger will also give share holders a 1:1 free share post consolidation = 1:3.5 pre consolidation


So for all those reasons I expect a rebound off the current lows

Cheers

Agree YT, Also picked up a few more recently. Good long term prospects.

PS How did you enjoy the "Trading in the Zone"? ... Pretty heavy reading at times eh? ...... Cheers.

 

[Knobby22]

Yes, I'm back in at 16.5c.

The bounce may take a while to materialise and the big worry for investors has more to do with the taxes and general risks you have with an African country. I think this is reflected in the price and if something good happens at that front we could also get a bounce. They could just as easily decide to steal the company through even higher taxes.

Not a company for the faint hearted. I hope the CEO has a good relationship with the leaders of the country.