ADY - Admiralty Resources

[roland]

The activity on ADY and the rapid change in depth gives me a feeling that someone knows something????

Maybe ANZ have finished dumping stock?

 

[j4mesa]

roland,
i am not too sure with that..............
let's hope so but i guess today's movement is because the whole market sentiment

 

[Trojax]

Hmm, more than general market movements I feel, given it's the second most traded stock on the exchange today, very very large volumes for this stock.. and closes out on the high, watch the price tomorrow, looks good for a strong showing. Couple of things in the pipework, ANZ Opes court case decision handed down tomorrow which could be a very very positive announcement for ADY and PT to get his shares back. Secondarily this stock has been a bit of a leaky ship in the past re news, so could well hear something from PT re the lithium split that was due this month or even a progress report re his China meetings over the past week in the near future since well, both are overdue anyway.

Personally I'd like to see PT get his stock back asap, then do the ann's, no doubt if there are any to come, they wouldn't be made public until Opes was sorted and his ownership confirmed.

*also ANZ sold half their OPES and ML 20 or 30 million, ANZ have been sitting on another 120 million that are held up pending the court ruling, dumping stopped awhile back. Watch for the ann tomorrow re the ruling, interesting day coming up

 

[rub92me]

Looks like the daytraders have come back :. Maybe they've finally tweaked to the fact that ADY also has truckloads of potash, which seems to be the market's favourite flavour at the moment.

 

[michael_selway]

Looks like the daytraders have come back :. Maybe they've finally tweaked to the fact that ADY also has truckloads of potash, which seems to be the market's favourite flavour at the moment.

Hi ADY has Potash? Do you know where it says that? Also how much Postash (compared to the other resources it has)

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS -1.4 -0.1 1.0 8.9
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

thx

MS

Date: 1/4/2008
Author: Jamie Freed
Source: The Sydney Morning Herald --- Page: 22
Executives may have been caught out by a special loan scheme offered by collapsed stockbroker Opes Prime. According to Admiralty Resources director, Phil Thomas, Opes offered attractive interest rates and higher loan-to-value ratios than other lenders to executives, as well as loans on non-blue chip stock options. Thomas claims to have been aware that he was signing up to an unusual margin loan with Opes, although he said he was not aware that he had handed full security over to the stockbroker.

 

[roland]

Hi ADY has Potash? Do you know where it says that? Also how much Postash (compared to the other resources it has)

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS -1.4 -0.1 1.0 8.9
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

thx

MS

JORC Estimate of 70,000 tonnes of lithium equivalent metal and 2.48million tonnes of potash

Here is the link:
http://www.ady.com.au/pdf/pdf7_050727_rincon_salar_JORC_estimate.pdf

I think though, you may need to read between the lines regarding Potash, since ADY has Potassium Chloride, whereas Potassium Oxide is considered to be the fertiliser variety.

The link here to Wiki's definitions may help: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potash

 

[urgalzmine]

JORC Estimate of 70,000 tonnes of lithium equivalent metal and 2.48million tonnes of potash

Here is the link:
http://www.ady.com.au/pdf/pdf7_050727_rincon_salar_JORC_estimate.pdf

I think though, you may need to read between the lines regarding Potash, since ADY has Potassium Chloride, whereas Potassium Oxide is considered to be the fertiliser variety.

The link here to Wiki's definitions may help: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potash

That is correct.. but remember Potash is a bi product. They get it for free!!!

for every 17000 tonne of Lithium, produce 77000 tonnes of Potash(for free)

also remember lithium sells for about $6000 per tonne

 

[kray192]

Why does ppl always miss the important bit
by 70k tonnes of lithium thats in pure lithium metal, the $6k(probably go up) price is calculated by tonne of lithium chloride (99% i think, closer to 100% higher the price but also difficulty to extract). The 70k lithium metal equals to 427k tonnes of lithium chloride.
You never ever have lithium by itself, extremely sensitive chemically.

 

[rub92me]

JORC Estimate of 70,000 tonnes of lithium equivalent metal and 2.48million tonnes of potash

Here is the link:
http://www.ady.com.au/pdf/pdf7_050727_rincon_salar_JORC_estimate.pdf

I think though, you may need to read between the lines regarding Potash, since ADY has Potassium Chloride, whereas Potassium Oxide is considered to be the fertiliser variety.

The link here to Wiki's definitions may help: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potash

Also from Wikipedia is the following:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potassium_chloride

The majority of the potassium chloride produced is used for making fertilizer, since the growth of many plants is limited by their potassium intake. As a chemical feedstock it is used for the manufacture of potassium hydroxide and potassium metal. It is also used in medicine, scientific applications, food processing, as a sodium-free substitute for table salt (sodium chloride), and in judicial execution through lethal injection. It is sometimes used in water as a completion fluid in oil and gas operations. Also, as an alternative to sodium chloride in household water softener units.

Any fertilizer experts in da house?

 

[nikki]

Anyone notice something odd about the trading in ADY today?

Huge volumes but did not go anywhere? Did i miss something! Chart does not look particularly good as a result - indecision followed by failed attempt at a break of strong support @ .2

potash!!! all this time i have been investing in ADY thinking it is an iron ore company?

 

[roland]

Anyone notice something odd about the trading in ADY today?

Huge volumes but did not go anywhere? Did i miss something! Chart does not look particularly good as a result - indecision followed by failed attempt at a break of strong support @ .2

potash!!! all this time i have been investing in ADY thinking it is an iron ore company?

Day trading, buy at .19 sell at .195 - works for me - 4 transactions today - the confidence is there to not worry too much about being stuck - just wait for the next .05 and start again

 

[Trojax]

did u not notice the ANZ ann this arvo @ 3:41 switching to 'major holder, then the 20 million cross trade at 3:58pm, then the off trades from to 4:00 - 4:10 @ around 30 mill shares all at .19, IMO we either have a big new player who wants in and did a deal on the SP @.19, an unknown player positioning themselves or PT is possibly getting his holdings back, news is imminent IMO

(additional: punter day traders dont trade blocks that big lol, let alone after market close)

 

[roland]

did u not notice the ANZ ann this arvo @ 3:41 switching to 'major holder, then the 20 million cross trade at 3:58pm, then the off trades from to 4:00 - 4:10 @ around 30 mill shares all at .19, IMO we either have a big new player who wants in and did a deal on the SP @.19, an unknown player positioning themselves or PT is possibly getting his holdings back, news is imminent IMO

I don't think that there was anything so special about the ANZ announcement in regards to ADY, since they announced the same for all their current Opus holdings. Also, I watched the volume and the announcement didn't seem to have any effect.

Didn't watch close enough to notice the closing trades, but thanks for the heads up

 

[nikki]

hi Roland,

what sort of volumes do you play with to make the trade worthwhile once you take out the cost of brokerage. who do you use if the brokerage is cheap!!!

agree with you that at this price the downside risks are small and so your strategy is smart!

cheers

 

[Tukker]

hi Roland,

what sort of volumes do you play with to make the trade worthwhile once you take out the cost of brokerage. who do you use if the brokerage is cheap!!!

agree with you that at this price the downside risks are small and so your strategy is smart!

cheers

Risky if there isn't good liquidity and you don't have direct market access. Its not for the faint of heart i believe.

 

[roland]

hi Roland,

what sort of volumes do you play with to make the trade worthwhile once you take out the cost of brokerage. who do you use if the brokerage is cheap!!!

agree with you that at this price the downside risks are small and so your strategy is smart!

cheers

actually the volumes are not so large - you don't need a lot to cover the brokerage ($19.95 x 2) and since I am actually holding higher cost parcels the worst that can happen is that I'd end up averaging down on a stock that I am happy to hold - and none of my holdings are geared, so I can wait if things go south

 

[aleckara]

Potash prices have sky rocketed recently. I believe they are at something like above $500 a tonne now. There has definitely been a lot of day trading, or someone playing with ADY.

A sales agreement in regards to the Potash however mentions a lower sales price (announced years ago). Hopefully the agreement is to sell at the spot price rather than that price.

 

[Tukker]

.. and none of my holdings are geared, so I can wait if things go south

That must be nice to know. I don't have that much available cash so basically i gotta take a more conservative angle.

78mil shares traded yesterday and price held firm at 19c, daytraders you think?

 

[roland]

That must be nice to know. I don't have that much available cash so basically i gotta take a more conservative angle.

78mil shares traded yesterday and price held firm at 19c, daytraders you think?

Day Traders? hard to know for sure, ANZ sold off another 5 million. If the stock flops backwards and forwards half a cent all day, then even if it were not day traders, it does lend itself to day trading - especially when there is a lot of volume

 

[nikki]

Looks the ANZ are still selling. I assume the huge cross-trades yesterday were linked to the ANZ as well.

Roland, who do you use to get $20 brokerage?

cheers