ADI - Adelphi Energy
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Nioka, regarding EME they are a new company only listing last year, they currently have 3 projects ongoing, Glantal in Germany which after initial 4 drills proved no commercial gas and was plugged and abandoned, potential was up to 6.3tcf of gas they are currently looking at other targets on the area but nothing stated as yet, that failure caused a fall in the SP from about 90p to at one point 30p, speculation on Eagle and Sugarloaf now has the price at 63.5p as at last night.
You know as much as I do about Sugarloaf so no point going into further detail but I am confident about buying Adelphi because of Sugarloaf, will come back to that in a moment. Regarding Eagle in California EME have a 38.5% stake in this field which had 34M barrels and flowed 533 barrels in 1986 from the original well, they know there is oil there and the partners seem determined to get it out, they started in Feb 06 drilling and they proved the field but could not get it to flow because of running sand, I am not technical but they had to acquire a work over rig which only arrived 3 weeks ago, they are now retrieving the perforation guns which failed to fire initially and will re enter with coiled tubing , perforate and hopefully will flow, basically they have had to clean out the hole from the previous crap and start the final phase again, they estimate 1000 barrels a day I would not be surprised to see 1500 to 2000 a day and this will be a company maker for EME. VPE of Australia are the operator and are not crisp like Texas Crude,they probably do not have the pulling power of Texas and hence the delays. EME share price hit 160p in March this year on Eagle and will go to 200p if it succeeds and then we have Sugarloaf and Glantal on top.
Agentm, sorry you felt you were not welcome on the iii board in UK, like anywhere there are some idiots, ignore them most of us serious investors in UK are ok and welcome yourselves and others opinion. I did not buy on Friday as I was too late when I rang for my broker to contact theirs in Aussie, I will buy Monday morning, I have a couple of points, you say Adelphi share price would only increase by 0.60c on lower levels but up to $6 Aus on Hosston, don't quite follow that on confirmation I would have thought it should go up significantly on commercial at lower levels, has Adelphi got rights at all levels.
I post below 2 analogies perhaps you or others could comment, I will only buy Adelphi or Eureka not both, thoughts, really interested in your valuation bearing in mind the commerciality initially at the lower levels, I know it is not certain yet but if it is 60c seems very low
market caps (undiluted)
Adelphi (20%interest) A$42m
Aurora (20% interest) A$62m
Eureka(12.5% interest) A$8m
x 0.40 for GBP mkt caps
for mine EKA is the best risk/reward play, could be a 30 or 40 bagger with 10-15% likelihood, that is a good bet. And with some downside insurance with very promising shallow targets.
Sage talks a good game but he should know that there is a 10-15% chance of success on the primary target. The market caps of the Australian players do not yet reflect this probability, nor the likelihood that the shallow secondary targets may already be economic. It would be awful to see him get burned shorting EME should there be a mere hint of hydrocarbons in the Sligo zone with Hosson to come. The real pressure is on the shorters because while probabilities favour them, the upside to Sugarloaf is enormous.
3250stewart,
Broker report ( May )gives highest leverage to ADI at 2599% & then EKA at 1347%.
Note permit area is described as below 2000m with upside of 4Tcf.
--------------------------------------------------------
Adelphi Energy Steps Up at SugarLoaf (ADI)
Adelphi has boosted its interest in the upcoming Sugarloaf exploration play to
20%, for which it will pay 25% of drilling costs. Sugarloaf is a deep gas play
targeting a mean 800Bcf of gas, with upside to 4Tcf at a depth below 5,200
metres in this 60-80km² prospect. Drilling is planned to commence in July, with
results known by early September.
Scout information from discoveries in the region indicates a possibility for gas and oil in shallow zones below 2,000m, extending into the Sugarloaf permit area, offering the potential for a secondary, shallow oil/gas play. With this information, Adelphi has gained 20% of both the shallow and deeper petroleum rights. This new shallow play,gives the Sugarloaf well multiple chances of success. If there is no deep gas, a small oil or gas accumulation would at least pay back the cost of a well.
Discovery of 800Bcf of gas and 10mmbbls of oil at Sugarloaf would be worth over $7 per share to Adelphi on a fully diluted basis. StockAnalysis ascribes a risk adjusted target valuation to the company of $1.23, based on its interests in Yemen, Sugarloaf and New Taiton, which is to be drilled later this year and where discovery of 40 bcf would be worth 45cps for Adelphi, leaving plenty of room for upward movement in share price, prior to spudding of the well, scheduled for July this year.
Of the three Australian partners in Sugarloaf, Adelphi offers the best leverage to success, with newcomer and Peter Allchurch vehicle, Eureka Mining making its first appearance on the US oil & gas scene.
Adelphi is recommended as a speculative buy with a short term target of 33 cents
and a medium term target price target of 55 cents
Sugarloaf Valuation Matrix
Company
Equity
WI
Current
Price cts
Discovery
Value cps
Leverage %
Risk adj
Value
cps
ADI 20.0% 27.5 715 2599% 89
AUT 20.0% 57.0 394 692% 49
EKA 12.5% 35.0 471 1347% 59
Target 800 Bcf
10 mmbbls
Value $ 3.6 A$/Mcf
$ 25.0 A$/bbl
Prob 12.5%
All IMHO, DYOR. Would like some responses before Monday to then make a decision on quantity of Adelphi or Eureka, at present favour Adelphi but happy to be convinced either way, thanks all
You know as much as I do about Sugarloaf so no point going into further detail but I am confident about buying Adelphi because of Sugarloaf, will come back to that in a moment. Regarding Eagle in California EME have a 38.5% stake in this field which had 34M barrels and flowed 533 barrels in 1986 from the original well, they know there is oil there and the partners seem determined to get it out, they started in Feb 06 drilling and they proved the field but could not get it to flow because of running sand, I am not technical but they had to acquire a work over rig which only arrived 3 weeks ago, they are now retrieving the perforation guns which failed to fire initially and will re enter with coiled tubing , perforate and hopefully will flow, basically they have had to clean out the hole from the previous crap and start the final phase again, they estimate 1000 barrels a day I would not be surprised to see 1500 to 2000 a day and this will be a company maker for EME. VPE of Australia are the operator and are not crisp like Texas Crude,they probably do not have the pulling power of Texas and hence the delays. EME share price hit 160p in March this year on Eagle and will go to 200p if it succeeds and then we have Sugarloaf and Glantal on top.
Agentm, sorry you felt you were not welcome on the iii board in UK, like anywhere there are some idiots, ignore them most of us serious investors in UK are ok and welcome yourselves and others opinion. I did not buy on Friday as I was too late when I rang for my broker to contact theirs in Aussie, I will buy Monday morning, I have a couple of points, you say Adelphi share price would only increase by 0.60c on lower levels but up to $6 Aus on Hosston, don't quite follow that on confirmation I would have thought it should go up significantly on commercial at lower levels, has Adelphi got rights at all levels.
I post below 2 analogies perhaps you or others could comment, I will only buy Adelphi or Eureka not both, thoughts, really interested in your valuation bearing in mind the commerciality initially at the lower levels, I know it is not certain yet but if it is 60c seems very low
market caps (undiluted)
Adelphi (20%interest) A$42m
Aurora (20% interest) A$62m
Eureka(12.5% interest) A$8m
x 0.40 for GBP mkt caps
for mine EKA is the best risk/reward play, could be a 30 or 40 bagger with 10-15% likelihood, that is a good bet. And with some downside insurance with very promising shallow targets.
Sage talks a good game but he should know that there is a 10-15% chance of success on the primary target. The market caps of the Australian players do not yet reflect this probability, nor the likelihood that the shallow secondary targets may already be economic. It would be awful to see him get burned shorting EME should there be a mere hint of hydrocarbons in the Sligo zone with Hosson to come. The real pressure is on the shorters because while probabilities favour them, the upside to Sugarloaf is enormous.
3250stewart,
Broker report ( May )gives highest leverage to ADI at 2599% & then EKA at 1347%.
Note permit area is described as below 2000m with upside of 4Tcf.
--------------------------------------------------------
Adelphi Energy Steps Up at SugarLoaf (ADI)
Adelphi has boosted its interest in the upcoming Sugarloaf exploration play to
20%, for which it will pay 25% of drilling costs. Sugarloaf is a deep gas play
targeting a mean 800Bcf of gas, with upside to 4Tcf at a depth below 5,200
metres in this 60-80km² prospect. Drilling is planned to commence in July, with
results known by early September.
Scout information from discoveries in the region indicates a possibility for gas and oil in shallow zones below 2,000m, extending into the Sugarloaf permit area, offering the potential for a secondary, shallow oil/gas play. With this information, Adelphi has gained 20% of both the shallow and deeper petroleum rights. This new shallow play,gives the Sugarloaf well multiple chances of success. If there is no deep gas, a small oil or gas accumulation would at least pay back the cost of a well.
Discovery of 800Bcf of gas and 10mmbbls of oil at Sugarloaf would be worth over $7 per share to Adelphi on a fully diluted basis. StockAnalysis ascribes a risk adjusted target valuation to the company of $1.23, based on its interests in Yemen, Sugarloaf and New Taiton, which is to be drilled later this year and where discovery of 40 bcf would be worth 45cps for Adelphi, leaving plenty of room for upward movement in share price, prior to spudding of the well, scheduled for July this year.
Of the three Australian partners in Sugarloaf, Adelphi offers the best leverage to success, with newcomer and Peter Allchurch vehicle, Eureka Mining making its first appearance on the US oil & gas scene.
Adelphi is recommended as a speculative buy with a short term target of 33 cents
and a medium term target price target of 55 cents
Sugarloaf Valuation Matrix
Company
Equity
WI
Current
Price cts
Discovery
Value cps
Leverage %
Risk adj
Value
cps
ADI 20.0% 27.5 715 2599% 89
AUT 20.0% 57.0 394 692% 49
EKA 12.5% 35.0 471 1347% 59
Target 800 Bcf
10 mmbbls
Value $ 3.6 A$/Mcf
$ 25.0 A$/bbl
Prob 12.5%
All IMHO, DYOR. Would like some responses before Monday to then make a decision on quantity of Adelphi or Eureka, at present favour Adelphi but happy to be convinced either way, thanks all
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I always stuck with ADI due to my ARQ position..
ADI became involved in sugarloaf and i looked at AUT and EKA.. but never had the confidence in them.. My view is that once ADI had secured more of the secondaries and then increased their stake in sugarloaf, i kept accumulating,, when they announced new tiaton, it was like the icing on the cake,, a low risk drill on a known gas play,, paying about .60 .. and as it was due to go about the same time as sugarloaf,, it semed to me the 4 plays in sugarloaf plus the 3 plays in new tiaton was good enough for me to invest,, Also new tiaton has a secondary independent target that they are able to drill on the same lease,, which makes tiaton an attractive safer play... look hard and you will find that info also..
The secondaries could be worth far more than .60 at sugarloaf, i cant understand how they calculated it.. the P10 for sugarloaf is over 6TCF and the esimates for the prices are done on P50 @ 1TCF.. so the secondaries may be worth up to 3 or maybe 6 times the .60 to $1 they estimate.. and with oil in the play it is worth a lot more.. but no one is yet to value in the ol texas tea that has been founfdin sugarloaf so far..
So far the shares have gone up about .17 and the austin chalks are now known to be successful and yet to be confirmed... my knowlege of the deal was that the austin chalks were never calculated into their estimates,, if you look at the independent research done for EKA on their prospectus, then you see that they had lots of data they were using was not able to be disclosed to the public.. and the austin chalks play was only mentioned in a very general way.. Also EKA wont allow the report to be listed on their website, you can only access it through the ASX website and track back the last 6 months of reports..
Lots about sugarloaf is kept very quiet,, all the successes are being kept quiet throughout.. the edward play may be tight as couchy says, but wait for the final reports before believing that.. the austin chalks are brilliant and declared commercial subject to flow testing.. why the market cant understand that the shares are damn cheap is beyond me.. in the states the landowners have a substantial impact on the way news is released.. offshore it different,, but onshore the oil business is down right dirty, so the confusion is obviously keeping the big money away..
I cant advise which is better to invest in .. but i have reports saying ADI has great value due to new tiaton and yemen (which i believe is greatly understated- there are oil plays there miles in depth, not meters) and the reason ADi are in yemen is because of the ARQ connection.. so ADi are great value compared to their peers.. 5% of ADI belongs to the directors,, and ARQ holds 25%,, and the directors have large stakes in ARQ also.. if hosston hits ADI has a swag of cash on hand and ARQ has options on the find also.. so the value to ARQ and ADI is huge as they can handle large projects immediately with the team on hand..
sugarloaf has success written all over it now.. hope you get on board before hosston or sligo is announced as prices may go up..
ADI became involved in sugarloaf and i looked at AUT and EKA.. but never had the confidence in them.. My view is that once ADI had secured more of the secondaries and then increased their stake in sugarloaf, i kept accumulating,, when they announced new tiaton, it was like the icing on the cake,, a low risk drill on a known gas play,, paying about .60 .. and as it was due to go about the same time as sugarloaf,, it semed to me the 4 plays in sugarloaf plus the 3 plays in new tiaton was good enough for me to invest,, Also new tiaton has a secondary independent target that they are able to drill on the same lease,, which makes tiaton an attractive safer play... look hard and you will find that info also..
The secondaries could be worth far more than .60 at sugarloaf, i cant understand how they calculated it.. the P10 for sugarloaf is over 6TCF and the esimates for the prices are done on P50 @ 1TCF.. so the secondaries may be worth up to 3 or maybe 6 times the .60 to $1 they estimate.. and with oil in the play it is worth a lot more.. but no one is yet to value in the ol texas tea that has been founfdin sugarloaf so far..
So far the shares have gone up about .17 and the austin chalks are now known to be successful and yet to be confirmed... my knowlege of the deal was that the austin chalks were never calculated into their estimates,, if you look at the independent research done for EKA on their prospectus, then you see that they had lots of data they were using was not able to be disclosed to the public.. and the austin chalks play was only mentioned in a very general way.. Also EKA wont allow the report to be listed on their website, you can only access it through the ASX website and track back the last 6 months of reports..
Lots about sugarloaf is kept very quiet,, all the successes are being kept quiet throughout.. the edward play may be tight as couchy says, but wait for the final reports before believing that.. the austin chalks are brilliant and declared commercial subject to flow testing.. why the market cant understand that the shares are damn cheap is beyond me.. in the states the landowners have a substantial impact on the way news is released.. offshore it different,, but onshore the oil business is down right dirty, so the confusion is obviously keeping the big money away..
I cant advise which is better to invest in .. but i have reports saying ADI has great value due to new tiaton and yemen (which i believe is greatly understated- there are oil plays there miles in depth, not meters) and the reason ADi are in yemen is because of the ARQ connection.. so ADi are great value compared to their peers.. 5% of ADI belongs to the directors,, and ARQ holds 25%,, and the directors have large stakes in ARQ also.. if hosston hits ADI has a swag of cash on hand and ARQ has options on the find also.. so the value to ARQ and ADI is huge as they can handle large projects immediately with the team on hand..
sugarloaf has success written all over it now.. hope you get on board before hosston or sligo is announced as prices may go up..
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not much stock on the boards for AUT and EKA.. but plenty of exits from ADI today,, and heaps on the boards.. is there a reason???
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tomorrow we should be a fair way into sligo
i see by ARQ's annual report that they visited sugarloaf.. and the play is in the wilcox region..
cant be long before some news will have to filter out
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=4459&stc=1
i see by ARQ's annual report that they visited sugarloaf.. and the play is in the wilcox region..
cant be long before some news will have to filter out
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=4459&stc=1
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AgentM
I just bought 25,000 Adelphi, could have bought more but I have a decent stake in eme as well, nearly sold a few eme to buy more Adelphi, it's an option, looking good from this end
My email is simstew@btinternet.com if you want to get in touch. :bayer:
I just bought 25,000 Adelphi, could have bought more but I have a decent stake in eme as well, nearly sold a few eme to buy more Adelphi, it's an option, looking good from this end
My email is simstew@btinternet.com if you want to get in touch. :bayer:
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Just to let all know, eme fell back 5p today due to Eagle having to be sidetracked, could not retrieve perferation guns so delayed again, VPE are bloody crap they want to change their details to landscape gardners, could do better myself 
with a shoval.
Anyway thought I would let you know as price fall is nothing to do with Sugarloaf, infact high expectation on Sugarloaf now, I think price will build as we get closer to TD
with a shoval.Anyway thought I would let you know as price fall is nothing to do with Sugarloaf, infact high expectation on Sugarloaf now, I think price will build as we get closer to TD
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i saw the eme drop last night after they annouced the lack of success at eagle..
the ASX requires that you post all finds immediately, so i feel sligo may not have come up with any shows... TD is nearing, and the more i research the Hosston sands the more promising the 2D's are.. We are not privy to all the information available to the geologists running the show..
when PD Allchurch buys 5% of EKA a few months ago and you look at his credentials then you gotta back this horse as well..
but i still cant get this post by couchy out of my head
Sugarloaf – Hosston – 1st phase a success
We have dug the well to 14,480’ and logged the upper sections.
Well was trying to flow back gas during the logging operations.
The Austin Chalk zone from 11,925’ to 12,200’ looks very oil productive. The log results may set us up to drill over 100 wells in offsetting lease (26,000 acres) to just produce the oil from that zone. The porosity is just about double from what is normally found NE of our well location. Some folks have successfully produced with as low as 3% porosity. We have 9 to 12% porosity.
The Edwards is from 12,275’ to 14,000’ looks tight or too dense to produce.
The Sligo formation begans about 14,500’
The Hosston (Objective) begans at 17,000’ Planned total depth is 21,000’.
This morning they are running 9 5/8” casing to 14,480’
the ASX requires that you post all finds immediately, so i feel sligo may not have come up with any shows... TD is nearing, and the more i research the Hosston sands the more promising the 2D's are.. We are not privy to all the information available to the geologists running the show..
when PD Allchurch buys 5% of EKA a few months ago and you look at his credentials then you gotta back this horse as well..
but i still cant get this post by couchy out of my head
Sugarloaf – Hosston – 1st phase a success
We have dug the well to 14,480’ and logged the upper sections.
Well was trying to flow back gas during the logging operations.
The Austin Chalk zone from 11,925’ to 12,200’ looks very oil productive. The log results may set us up to drill over 100 wells in offsetting lease (26,000 acres) to just produce the oil from that zone. The porosity is just about double from what is normally found NE of our well location. Some folks have successfully produced with as low as 3% porosity. We have 9 to 12% porosity.
The Edwards is from 12,275’ to 14,000’ looks tight or too dense to produce.
The Sligo formation begans about 14,500’
The Hosston (Objective) begans at 17,000’ Planned total depth is 21,000’.
This morning they are running 9 5/8” casing to 14,480’
Hi AgentM. enjoy reading your posts on this one. Agree with your view re sligo but the only encouraging thing there is that EKA/ADI did wait until their wednesday announcement to report the first gas shows. they wrote:
During the week, gas shows were encountered in a secondary target – one of the Cretaceous aged carbonate formations.
so they didnt announce the shows immediately. anyway bring on Hosston
cheers
During the week, gas shows were encountered in a secondary target – one of the Cretaceous aged carbonate formations.
so they didnt announce the shows immediately. anyway bring on Hosston
cheers
HOMER J said:Hi AgentM. enjoy reading your posts on this one. Agree with your view re sligo but the only encouraging thing there is that EKA/ADI did wait until their wednesday announcement to report the first gas shows. they wrote:
During the week, gas shows were encountered in a secondary target – one of the Cretaceous aged carbonate formations.
so they didnt announce the shows immediately. anyway bring on Hosston
cheers
good point HomerJ they are always discrete and play their cards close to their chest...looks like some interest this morning in all the partners
Eureka Energy Limited advises that at 6am Texas time on 17th October
2006 the Sugarloaf-1 exploration well, located in the onshore Gulf Coast
Basin in Texas, USA, was at a depth of 17,000 feet (5,183 metres) and
preparing to run 7 5/8 inch liner to be tied back into the 9 5/8 inch casing
set at 14,480 feet (4,415 metres).
Since the last report, the well drilled 2,520 feet (768 metres) of 8 ½ inch
diameter hole, mostly in a Cretaceous age limestone, which was a
secondary gas target in the well. In this interval, several methane-only gas
shows were obtained. In order to isolate the extensive interval of limestone
in anticipation of higher pressures in the Hosston Formation target, drilling
was halted at 17,000 feet (5,183 metres) to enable a 7 5/8 inch liner to be
run and cemented in place.
Wire-line logs have been run over the interval 14,480 to 17,000 feet (4,415
to 5,183 metres). and preliminary interpretation indicates the presence of a
few thin zones of interest. A decision as to whether any zone is sufficiently
attractive to warrant production testing will be made by the joint venture
once the well has reached total depth and final logs are available.
After the 7 5/8 inch casing has been run and set, drilling will resume
towards and into the primary Hosston Formation target, which is expected to
be reached within a few days. Based on seismic data and an offset well the
Hosston Formation is anticipated to consist of more than 4000 feet (1,220
metres) of inter-bedded sandstones and shales with the potential for
multiple prospective intervals.
The proposed total depth of 21,000 feet (6,400 metres) is expected to be
reached during November assuming trouble-free drilling
ASX releases will continue be made routinely every Wednesday unless there
are material matters which require an earlier release.
2006 the Sugarloaf-1 exploration well, located in the onshore Gulf Coast
Basin in Texas, USA, was at a depth of 17,000 feet (5,183 metres) and
preparing to run 7 5/8 inch liner to be tied back into the 9 5/8 inch casing
set at 14,480 feet (4,415 metres).
Since the last report, the well drilled 2,520 feet (768 metres) of 8 ½ inch
diameter hole, mostly in a Cretaceous age limestone, which was a
secondary gas target in the well. In this interval, several methane-only gas
shows were obtained. In order to isolate the extensive interval of limestone
in anticipation of higher pressures in the Hosston Formation target, drilling
was halted at 17,000 feet (5,183 metres) to enable a 7 5/8 inch liner to be
run and cemented in place.
Wire-line logs have been run over the interval 14,480 to 17,000 feet (4,415
to 5,183 metres). and preliminary interpretation indicates the presence of a
few thin zones of interest. A decision as to whether any zone is sufficiently
attractive to warrant production testing will be made by the joint venture
once the well has reached total depth and final logs are available.
After the 7 5/8 inch casing has been run and set, drilling will resume
towards and into the primary Hosston Formation target, which is expected to
be reached within a few days. Based on seismic data and an offset well the
Hosston Formation is anticipated to consist of more than 4000 feet (1,220
metres) of inter-bedded sandstones and shales with the potential for
multiple prospective intervals.
The proposed total depth of 21,000 feet (6,400 metres) is expected to be
reached during November assuming trouble-free drilling
ASX releases will continue be made routinely every Wednesday unless there
are material matters which require an earlier release.
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sligo has gas shows and only days from hosston..
watch the shares go.........
watch the shares go.........
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down??????????????????????
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i am certain that there is something strange going on around here..
perhaps daytraders? hoping for a more positive slant on sligo then jumping off..
there are now 3 confirmed secondaries,, one said to be tight by couchy,, the austin chalks that had massive pressure and oil,, and then sligo being of the view that is can be looked at further..
now they put it all safely away behind the casing and go for the motherload,, with 3 zones in the bank for future development already.. i cant see how the well can be considered anything but a complete success..
they 2d's are obviously spot on,, the hydrocarbon shows on the siesmics are spot on.. so in my view there are hydrocarbons in hosston,, just a matter of at what pressure..
cant wait for the next good news.. i tell you what,,, if i was able to buy more today i would..
good luck to all who got the great prices of today...
perhaps daytraders? hoping for a more positive slant on sligo then jumping off..
there are now 3 confirmed secondaries,, one said to be tight by couchy,, the austin chalks that had massive pressure and oil,, and then sligo being of the view that is can be looked at further..
now they put it all safely away behind the casing and go for the motherload,, with 3 zones in the bank for future development already.. i cant see how the well can be considered anything but a complete success..
they 2d's are obviously spot on,, the hydrocarbon shows on the siesmics are spot on.. so in my view there are hydrocarbons in hosston,, just a matter of at what pressure..
cant wait for the next good news.. i tell you what,,, if i was able to buy more today i would..
good luck to all who got the great prices of today...
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