the jump from adi to eka looks good so far Nioka. i expect adi to maintain a lead over aut, and i cant see any logic in eka going over aut's sp. keep the sp in close view, remember the cashflow is needed to develop these finds.. some have considerably more than others thus far.. ARQ has also expended their options so a another multi million dollar cash injection has also happened very quietly!
Nokia watch out for NT, they may announce things, they stopped and did a wireline without announcing any shows, and once they commence drilling they will be closer to the zones, i hope your timing is good.
ADI is definately the best pick of the 3 in my view.. they have short term upside in NT and in answer to wallave, the flow testing will take no more than 2 weeks i have heard, and from what i have heard i expect news on that very very shortly.
ADI has a habit of placing news in their quarterlies also, so expect some nice things in there also..
ADI has some great longer term prospects, yemen has a lot more to offer than appearances may portray, and i am very excited on the other prosects in the pipeline, indonesia and north africa.. there isnt much that can be said about the 3d stuff in the gulf of mexico other than the obvious.. there is plenty of oil and gas there!!
I am super confident on the secondaries in SL, i believe both the magnitude and importance of the find is beyond what anyone can understand. The reasons for my continuing to purchase the share in the past month or more is soley on the reasoning that the return on the secondaries carry more than $2 to the sp. i see little downside. I have heard a rumour real early on in the piece that one director of one of the JVP's was so happy with the secondaries they were happy to stop drilling and go ahead on the chalks right there and then..!! i didnt hear it direct but remember reading about it on a UK forum from one of the more reliable posters there!
The primary needs fracing, just about all wells in the US are fraced, so the technolgy, expertise and understanding of exactly what to do is, in my view, in the hands of experts. I dont believe that texas crude would allow any ordinary fracing program to be done here, this is a new field and the experienced specialised crews and equipment needed here will be well sourced. I cant, and nor can anyone predict the flow rates from an unfraced well, but but the primary has been considerably downgraded in estimates by the JVP's to cap off the possibility of massive fluctuations in the sp on speculation during the drill. 1.5 TCF is not unreasonable on the well, and from my understanding of it, the 1.5 tcf figure is the smallest the reserve can be for commercial flow, the JVP's downsized the reserves by 50% (to 800bcf) to keep the sp real and be very very conservative. my gut feeling is 1.5 tcf is what they are gunning for minimum.. thats entirely speculative and all IMHO..
if i had to punt on the well and guess, my money is in the area of multiple 100's bcf on the secondary.. and 1.5 tcf on the sands..
You must understand the primary is wildcat, the secondaries were known plays and all contained shows and finds.. real good shows and finds. As a wildcat, you can get away with a bit, you cant go proclaiming a discovery (like GDN) and then hope when the flow tests come in that your right. These guys dont play that game, ADI wouldnt allow it no matter what the others would want!! So it remains a wildcat well and no announcement of a discovery until after the flow testing. The numbers they had to decide to invest in flow testing had to be good, real good. There is absolutely no guessing here, If certian factors were in the equation to disallow a successful fracing and flow testing program, then it was to be called off. Permiability, porosity and all the perameters for a decision to flow test had to be met. This well was very very expensive, but there is no wild guessing and flagrant disregard foe shareholders money here, if the sl primary was dead then they were not going to flog a dead horse, they saw the numbers from the wirelines and they must have been impressed!!
i hold as always.. good luck to all.. and remember all IMHO and DYOR on this share, its getting close to crunch time, and in the US they dont have australia day holidays!! things can happen and if you ask around you may find out that a lot of JVP guys are in the USA, if you catch my drift!!