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AAR - Astral Resources

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Technicals or Fundamentals I got sucked into this stock previously by ramping elsewhere & improper research,
I'm wiser now thanks partly to the policies adhered to on ASF & the fact that losing money is a great teacher.
AAR's OK for day traders with fast trigger fingers but there's better stocks to day trade anyway.
 
speves said:
Nice announcement this morning from AAR, any thoughts?
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IMO do not under estimate the Koongie Park project. I am patiently awaiting the outcome of the PFS. And they still have Mandilla happening.

For mine though, the Koongie Park location provides the key to what will occur next. The MPR report is not a bad read to support AAR information.
http://www.mpr.wa.gov.au/documents/investment/EastKimberleyTanamiFinalReport(1).pdf

as is this little snippet... http://www.navigatorresources.com.au/laurariver.htm

I am not making a recommendation one way or the other. At this point AAR is just on my watchlist. IMO the sp will probably drift down slightly before any upside is seen but the outcome of the PFS I believe will see this change.

At this point I would say it is worth watching at minimum.
 
A very positive discussion held with AAR management and I am now firmly convinced the Koongie Park PFS will be very positive indeed as will Mandilla.

AAR will be putting out the quarterly report early and no specifics given obviously but it is clear that they are very positive on both Koongie Park and Mandilla with Koongie Park being described as "the jewel in the crown".

Having worked with GRD Minproc on the Mt Garnet development for Kagara I am thrilled to bits to have gotten into AAR at these prices.

I believe we may here more from a visit they are having to Sydney to a conference where "discussions" are to be held.

This is a guess only based on what I have now reasearched and the discussions I have had with AAR. I believe Mandilla will be very positive and will provide the capital required to progress Koongie Park.
 
And it seems the market knows of something today, AAR moved up nicely.

Nice move up today to .071 after touching .072. Nice strong finish at .071 as well.
 
rockingham178 said:
And it seems the market knows of something today, AAR moved up nicely.

Nice move up today to .071 after touching .072. Nice strong finish at .071 as well.
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Nice chart don't you think.....did anyone jump on today when I placed AAR as a potential breakout this morning?
 

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rockingham178

I am new to all this especially resource valuation. Can you please comment or correct my below maths,

According to the 9 Jan ann they have a possible resource of 4.65Mt @ 5.2%Zn

so:

4.65Mt x .052 = 241,800t of Zn? seems huge, Zn is roughly $4900AUD/t

hence 240,000 x $4900 = $1.17billion, surely it cant be that huge?

comments?

thanks
 
Toc Bat,

I think the price you are referring to is the price of Zn ingots, not the price of the zinc ore.
 
morgan

i wasnt getting carried away i found my figure extremely doubtfull, so how does one go about it then? is there an estimated price of ore out there somewhere? i know each ore has its own price, depending on location, grade, impurities etc,

i see people making resource estimations left right and centre so there must be some half agreed on convention,
 
These been a bit of talk here about AAR 'potentially' or actually breaking out. Looking at the one year chart I'm finding it difficult to see how it is even close to 'breaking out'.

A 'breakout' is when a stock breaks out of a trend. The longer the trend and tighter the range, the better the break.

AAR is definately trending sideways and seems to be forming a loose triangle centred on about $0.73. For it to break out of this trading range it needs to break up through the down trend line, or below the up trend line as shown. Then, for it to be confirmed as a break up, you really need it to be breaking any short term resistance levels. The stronger the resistance lines the better the 'breakout'. To me it looks like $0.72-0.74 is where the resistance is, and then a little at $0.076, and then $0.08.

I reckon an outstanding break might be at about the green circle. Long way to go IMO. The MACD turn looks positive.
 

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I have been involved in the transport of Zn ore for the past 7 years, but up till recently (crazy as it seems!) have never thought about how much it was actually worth per tonne. Will see what I can find out.........
 

Kennas
I take your point but the upside in the sp of the last few days and strong change of momentum and tells me this is on my list as a potential breakout. I do admit that it isn't a clear actual breakout and my call on that seems early, but I don't believe it has a long way to go at all. What is clear is that support seems to be coming back in ever so cautiously. I don't think I am the only one that has looked closely at what AAR are up to.

cheers
rock
 
Morgan said:
I have been involved in the transport of Zn ore for the past 7 years, but up till recently (crazy as it seems!) have never thought about how much it was actually worth per tonne. Will see what I can find out.........
Click to expand...

just zn ore? can i ask what you do?

thanks
 
toc_bat said:
just zn ore? can i ask what you do?

thanks
Click to expand...

Toc:
I'm the captain of ZFX's ship.
(carry the Pb ore as well).

might have a quick peek how INLs pile in the shed is getting on while in port this afternoon
 
Rock, I agree it looks to have potential to go up. I don't watch the sp on a daily basis and when people do watch a particular stock for a long time they get a feel for it, and sence when it could be about to jump. On the other hand, perhaps emotions get in the way when you follow something so closely. I do it all the time....Damn AEX!!! LOL.
 

Yes that can occur and I have been guilty of same

I may have jumped erly but the upside I suppose is I believe I bought in at the bottom, which was my trading plan. As it was to find a stock with a lot of upside fundamentally that wasn't seemingly hated by the market. AAR is seemingly a sentimental favourite and I do like the openess of the management and the technical background they have and demonstrate.

Have I got a Mt Garnet here?.....I really don't know but it has all of the required hallmarks at this point. I really await the final outcome of the PFS. The pending anns I am also eagerly waiting on to see why the company is so damn excited. I have to respect their non-disclosure of details to me, as they should be doing. I also liked the fact they tok the time out to talk to a shareholder, in fact encouraging me to do so at anytime. Quite refreshing.
 

Apologies for the delay toc_bat. A good read below with 2007 estimate calcs for you.

A nice Australian website Zinc read here: http://www.abareconomics.com/interactive/ac_dec06/htm/zinc.htm

Zinc prices forecast to be $4200AUD/t average in 2007...Nice for AAR wouldn't you say?

So....
4.65Mt x .052 = 241,800t of Zn, Zn price (Lets be conservative) Zn @ $3900AUD/t

240,000 x $3900 = $936M AUD

I am really looking forward to the PFS results!

This doesn't take into account copper or gold identified....and the very high Zn intersects at Atlantis, worth a read in the 9/1/07 PFS update.

Had a good look on Google Earth as well, very nice location indeed. Transport shouldn't be a problem with the Gt Northern Highway going right through Koongie Park with Onedin and Sandiego on either side of the highway it seems. close to Halls Creek (27km) and right near a processing plant (not sure what type though....Nicholsons Find? anyone know of this?)
 
rocki

i think both of our calculations are flawed because we have used actuall ingot price for zinc, not ore price, which would be much much lower, also probobly need to take into account costs of project,

see ya
 
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