AAM - A1 Minerals

[verce]

First post - just wanted to say I am looking forward to this meeting tomorrow and I am personally of the opinion that they will clear up a lot of bad blood with their shareholders. Management can't have taken this company so far only to let things go to pieces at this point.

[Holding AAM and hopeful.]

 

[Donga]

First post - just wanted to say I am looking forward to this meeting tomorrow and I am personally of the opinion that they will clear up a lot of bad blood with their shareholders. Management can't have taken this company so far only to let things go to pieces at this point.

[Holding AAM and hopeful.]

Similar sentiments and just hope we're right. Frustrating lack of news which in this market means drift downwards but the fundamentals appear sound.

Looking forward to feedback from those attending the meeting.

 

[AngusSmart]

Wow how predictable!

before the meeting the announcement we've been waiting for made

BRIGHTSTAR UPDATE Highlights

Gold plant commissioning in final stages – increasing throughput up to full production over the next 7-10 days

23.5 kg of unrefined gold has been produced during commissioning ␣

50 person accommodation village established

General Manager of Operations (GMO) and Chief Financial Officer
(CFO) appointed

BrightStar Gold Project now fully staffed with ~60 personnel

continues on..

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20100414/pdf/01054634.pdf

 

[tja125]

I'm not overly concerned about the size of the gold bar at this stage, I'm more liking the "full production planned 7-10 days". If that is not a lie or exageration (Important) then i think we have smooth sailing for the SP from now on in my opinion. (Also lets see how the voting goes as well obviously)

 

[kermit345]

So does this mean within the next 2 weeks we may have another announcement with the results from the meeting as well as an update stating that production is now in full swing?

I'm not too concerned with this initial amount either, if steady full production is achieved then this would be the main point anyway. Hopefully as production reaches capacity and the gold room is completed then we will see steady SP appreciation over the coming months.

Obviously there are still some issues that are dependant upon the meeting as well. Looking forward to the outcomes of the meeting and if that has any major bearing on the company/SP as well.

 

[tja125]

Everything passed at the meeting, i am reading this correctly?

I think these things shouldn't really matter so much PROVIDING they reach full production as planned in 10 days or so or even two weeks at worst and keep us updated.

Just my thoughts...

 

[kermit345]

Yup looks like everything was passed, even point 5, the tranche 2 release of shares which will unfortunately contribute to further dilution, even though some on these forums were hopeful that this may not get passed. Although there may have been more information at the meeting that elduded to why these funds were necessary.

Looking forward to see AAM Shareholder etc post here with their thoughts and what they took away from the meeting.

 

[AAM shareholder]

Yup looks like everything was passed, even point 5, the tranche 2 release of shares which will unfortunately contribute to further dilution, even though some on these forums were hopeful that this may not get passed. Although there may have been more information at the meeting that elduded to why these funds were necessary.

Looking forward to see AAM Shareholder etc post here with their thoughts and what they took away from the meeting.

Hi Kermit,

I for one have not posted as I don't feel that I can add anything factual.
Look at the latest report on the ASX and read carefully.

There is a word change to "Commissioning" rather than "Production" which was used during all of 2009.

My calculation, 23.5 kg, is about 24000gms, at 4gm per tonne = 6000 tonnes of ore. At 300,000 tonnes pa that's approx 1/50th of an annualised production, 365/50 is approx 7 days. Vary the figures and play with it. If there was higher grade ore then it less and vice-versa... it seems to have been confirmed by figures below. Seems to be confirmed by the release below that I refer to.

The ASX report of 14/04/2010 where they say and I'll select 3 points only...you read the rest,
1. "crushing has performed up to 1000 t per day"
(so was 23.5 kg of gold effectively between 4-10 days of production only???
2. "The second ball mill's bearing required repositioning..........."
(That's information which wasn't released to the market at the time when it delayed milling and was thus relevant! I'm told that repositioning is not a minor activity and they will likely have known about this problem WHEN???

3. "The gold room is currently being completed....",
(The market was not informed of this nor of the likely extra costs and delays of processing that were incurred! )

On 25/02/2010 the ASX announcement included the following
"......the first gold pour will take place late next week....."
"the delay is primarily due to the limited availability of skilled and technical workers that is severely impacting project development in Western Australia and in addition the Company has had some technical challenges in bringing the refurbished plant up to operating standard, all the most significant issues have now been overcome."

(So why is 23.5 kg all that has been produced???)
(Note the bearing alignment wasn't the problem they told us about, just that there was maybe no skilled staff available to fix it available to fix it! again shareholders were uninformed of the extent and nature of the problem and indeed the costs associated and the risks of running out of cash)

There is another forum you might like to log into hotcopper.com.au where there is at times additional information. Make your own discernment re the information posted as well as check everything I post for accuracy.

Regards
An AAM shareholder

 

[tja125]

Hi Kermit,

I for one have not posted as I don't feel that I can add anything factual.
Look at the latest report on the ASX and read carefully.

There is a word change to "Commissioning" rather than "Production" which was used during all of 2009.

My calculation, 23.5 kg, is about 24000gms, at 4gm per tonne = 6000 tonnes of ore. At 300,000 tonnes pa that's approx 1/50th of an annualised production, 365/50 is approx 7 days. Vary the figures and play with it. If there was higher grade ore then it less and vice-versa... it seems to have been confirmed by figures below. Seems to be confirmed by the release below that I refer to.

The ASX report of 14/04/2010 where they say and I'll select 3 points only...you read the rest,
1. "crushing has performed up to 1000 t per day"
(so was 23.5 kg of gold effectively between 4-10 days of production only???
2. "The second ball mill's bearing required repositioning..........."
(That's information which wasn't released to the market at the time when it delayed milling and was thus relevant! I'm told that repositioning is not a minor activity and they will likely have known about this problem WHEN???

3. "The gold room is currently being completed....",
(The market was not informed of this nor of the likely extra costs and delays of processing that were incurred! )

On 25/02/2010 the ASX announcement included the following
"......the first gold pour will take place late next week....."
"the delay is primarily due to the limited availability of skilled and technical workers that is severely impacting project development in Western Australia and in addition the Company has had some technical challenges in bringing the refurbished plant up to operating standard, all the most significant issues have now been overcome."

(So why is 23.5 kg all that has been produced???)
(Note the bearing alignment wasn't the problem they told us about, just that there was maybe no skilled staff available to fix it available to fix it! again shareholders were uninformed of the extent and nature of the problem and indeed the costs associated and the risks of running out of cash)

There is another forum you might like to log into hotcopper.com.au where there is at times additional information. Make your own discernment re the information posted as well as check everything I post for accuracy.

Regards
An AAM shareholder

I agree that more disclosure was necessary, but they have only claimed a max crush rate of 1000 t per day and that they are 'increasing' to max capacity. So maybe they only achieved this on one day and every other day it was a lot less, who knows.

We can't really make assumptions about ore grades or how many days production 23.5g of gold was without knowing the full extent of the problems or an accurate figure of how much ore has been processed.

 

[AAM shareholder]

Hell ooooooooo!

Are any shareholders still watching AAM?

I suggested it could take out the 24-25cent gap and that the weekly MACD had crossed to the downside. I must admit it looks awful and the next gap at 15-15.5 cents 9th Sept 09 is something I don't want to contemplate.

Does anyone have faith in the announcements?

Just wondering

 

[J&M]

yes I have a small holding which is so far down about 20%
I read the report by David H. and the comments on this web site
and the company data

I did vote against the share raising

Not sure weather to hang in there or just sell for the 20% loss
will prob keep and wait for any signs of share upward trend

James

 

[AngusSmart]

I'm going to sit on it for a while and see what happens.


not knowing every little detail about gold mining was the half year report that bad?

 

[AAM shareholder]

yes I have a small holding which is so far down about 20%
I read the report by David H. and the comments on this web site
and the company data

I did vote against the share raising

Not sure weather to hang in there or just sell for the 20% loss
will prob keep and wait for any signs of share upward trend

James

Hi James at risk of saying the wrong things.

When you look at a stock, watch volume as well as price.
Charts:
Look at 3 or 5 yr weekly charts as well as the daily chart.
Place 13 and 7 period weighted ave on the stock.
look at MACD and RSI indicators
That's enough for a start

Look at where the moving averages cross, look at the volume on a move.
Generally a crossover on the averages on a weekly chart is more potent than on a daily and will generally be a change in direction

Do this on AAM, NWE, AZS and other stocks to get a feel.
Also on monthly charts and see where the price has been (history).
we tend to worry about daily moves but when I look at the longer charts I get a different perspective.
ps hardly nothing doubles in a day.... having said this AZS did well the last 2 days and I was lucky to buy and sell some and keep some. They went from 0.043 to 0.65 today

Volume
Often you will see volume day spike weeks before a cross over on the moving averages. Buyers are accumulating. then the price settles. watch the patterns and get a feel. Its all about insiders, short term traders and psychology.

Down moves generally have lower volume that the corresponding up move. Up moves often start with large volume, note the volume near tops.... note the volumes near bottoms....analyse these for yourself
ps there are TOPS and intermediate tops, BOTTOMS and intermediate bottoms. Look for retracement patterns.

I think TLS is retraceing currently. A friend asked me if it was a sell near 2.93 he picked the bottom

Hope this helps a bit.

 

[tja125]

Hell ooooooooo!

Are any shareholders still watching AAM?

I suggested it could take out the 24-25cent gap and that the weekly MACD had crossed to the downside. I must admit it looks awful and the next gap at 15-15.5 cents 9th Sept 09 is something I don't want to contemplate.

Does anyone have faith in the announcements?

Just wondering

Hi AAM Shareholder. I still have confidence they will get the plant up and running in time.

Here is a posting from a member of another forum who had a phone conversation with Liam at AAM (These are not my words):

*************************

G'day,

Just spoke to Liam @ A1 this morning, and have exchanged emails following this conversation, which purely represents a summation of the phone call. Below, with his consent, are our emails. My comments first, followed by his within brackets.

I hope this helps to alleviate a few of the concerns thrown around here recently. BTW - on the phone it was apparent that there was an air of confidence in the recent activities at A1. It should be reasonable to expect that they are within their announced guidelines with respect to timing, commissioning and ramping up to full production.

**

Hi Liam,

Thank you for your time earlier, i greatly appreciate your efforts towards clear and coherent company/shareholder communications. Following on from our discussion, i ask that you review and validate the following information, of which i intend to share with other interested investors.

1. AAM employment advertisements: I understand these positions are a mix of new and existing positions, with the emphasis being on geological mapping etc for the beta area. The positions are also part of the long-term strategic plan of securing quality staff that will assist with current and future mining/exploration plans.

LIAM: (These positions are really just part of our day-to-day operations and are required to maintain the workforce A1 needs. The key emphasis of ALL A1 Minerals staff at the moment is robust production with a longer term focus towards growth. We aim to be a mid tier Gold Producer.)


2. Cashflow position: I understand that A1 has been diligent in assessing the near-term cashflow situation. It is expected that, assuming the modelling parameters are met, that A1 will be in a cashflow neutral/positive position in the coming weeks/months. Also, as a means of contingency, A1 is currently looking at various methods of alleviating cashflow concerns, should A1 not meet its target production figures in the short-term. Ideas such as debt, forward sales, amongst other things are being discussed with necessary parties. The board is fully aware of shareholder angst with respect to recent equity raisings, and will endeavour to ensure this form of capital raising will be avoided if possible (or seen fit)

LIAM: (Assuming our forecasted mining plans and cash flow modelling is correct, we believe that A1 has enough cash to cover itself into steady production. However, we are prudently ensuring that many contingencies are available and all options are considered. Rest assured the Board acknowledges feedback from shareholders regarding equity placements and the disadvantage of dilution.)



3. Grade controls and Silver: I understand that blended ore has been treated throughout the commissioning phase, and as full production approaches we can reasonably expect to see ore in accordance with the reserve statement being treated. It is probable that silver credits will vary, but the intention of A1 is to focus primarily on the Gold reserves, and any silver credits will be regarded as 'by-credits'. It is expected that the gold room will not change from its original purpose, and as such, we can expect refinery of gold/silver to be conducted by your agents, not necessarily internally at A1. As part of the grade control testing, A1 has focused on Gold, but is analysing silver as it goes. Consideration of Silver as more than a 'by-credit' will not be a significant focus, however all information will help to form a study as to its commerciality.

LIAM: (We see the Silver mineralisation at BrightStar as a positive and exciting opportunity however, our core focus is still Gold production and Silver is not affecting our production plans. At this stage, silver offers additional credit when refined to A1 but no production processes on site will be changed for collecting additional Silver without further assessment and unless is in shareholders interests.)


Again, thanks for your time and efforts.

**

best of luck y'all

cheers,
Split

****************************

 

[J&M]

Hi James at risk of saying the wrong things.

When you look at a stock, watch volume as well as price.
Charts:
Look at 3 or 5 yr weekly charts as well as the daily chart.
Place 13 and 7 period weighted ave on the stock.
look at MACD and RSI indicators
That's enough for a start

Look at where the moving averages cross, look at the volume on a move.
Generally a crossover on the averages on a weekly chart is more potent than on a daily and will generally be a change in direction

Do this on AAM, NWE, AZS and other stocks to get a feel.
Also on monthly charts and see where the price has been (history).
we tend to worry about daily moves but when I look at the longer charts I get a different perspective.
ps hardly nothing doubles in a day.... having said this AZS did well the last 2 days and I was lucky to buy and sell some and keep some. They went from 0.043 to 0.65 today

Volume
Often you will see volume day spike weeks before a cross over on the moving averages. Buyers are accumulating. then the price settles. watch the patterns and get a feel. Its all about insiders, short term traders and psychology.

Down moves generally have lower volume that the corresponding up move. Up moves often start with large volume, note the volume near tops.... note the volumes near bottoms....analyse these for yourself
ps there are TOPS and intermediate tops, BOTTOMS and intermediate bottoms. Look for retracement patterns.

I think TLS is retraceing currently. A friend asked me if it was a sell near 2.93 he picked the bottom

Hope this helps a bit.

Thanks for the advise you are not saying the wrong things I am on a steep learning curve. But get a buzz when I make a good sell which I have done once !!

James

 

[Sean K]

I'm sure condog is buying with his ears pinned back.

While I personal think the hype surrounding this is unfounded, we need to remember that the market was spanked today and a lot of juniors went south of Patagonia. The reason is, they are illiquid and quite often trading stocks, so as soon as some punters see a sign to sell they bail quickly, while no buyers appear. Panic sellers are always willing to sell out no matter what the spread. Therefore you get large movements from day to day, in both directions.

 

[Sean K]

Just having a quick look at some figures they've provided in regard to the mill.

Following the March quarter, A1’s CIL gold processing plant was commissioned with the plant was undergoing last minute modifications before commencement of operating at or near its designed capacity of 300,000tpa (by late April).

Further details of the Plant and commissioning are as follows:
Separate areas of the plant are showing up to 1000 tonnes per day can be achieved (incl crushing)

Now, some areas of the plant showing 1000 tn per day, adds up to 365,000tpa.

BUT, how much of the plant, and what's the rest doing?

Are they just presenting the positive stuff and not producing all the market sensitive information required by law?

Sorry if this was picked up by previous posts I skimmed through.

 

[condog]

I'm sure condog is buying with his ears pinned back.
No i am out of cash, i , would have though if i had the cash. AAM? is stretching my patinece, but the upside is monumnetal if it comes good. Im actually carrying a 20%+ loss on it a t presnt, will give it about another 2 weeks to come good , and then make a decision.

'Greece is a major concern, but i reserve my judgment. if in doubt cash = ok.

 

[Sean K]

'Greece is a major concern, but i reserve my judgment. if in doubt cash = ok.

Cash is a trading position which many don't really grasp.

I've gone on long term trading investment holiday until I see solutions been generated by world governments.

In the mean time there may be some great short term trading opportunities, which I will miss, but other better ones will appear later imo.

 

[AAM shareholder]

Cash is a trading position which many don't really grasp.

I've gone on long term trading investment holiday until I see solutions been generated by world governments.

In the mean time there may be some great short term trading opportunities, which I will miss, but other better ones will appear later imo.

You could be right re cash.
And thinking about cash waht about AAM's cash

AAM's last announcement.

*Last Quarter report* (I may have rounded some figures slightly)
payments for production $1,230,000
administration 696,000 (approx 2.8m a year) and growing?
Cash at end of quarter $2,309,000

The above was cash at end March 2010. Cash must be down at least another $700,000 (end April unless they are sitting on bills). What are AAM's current liabilities?.... 60 people on site, building a gold room, cost of refining off site, and advertising for expensive additional staff, where's the money?