AAM - A1 Minerals
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I understand you are being conservative, but...
2,000 oz isn't best case -> rumours around the block are that they can do more than 2,500 oz (unsubstantiated, but, nonetheless, lets give them 2,500 oz, like they have said)...
2500 * 800 (current gross profit) * 12 = $24M
However, I'm assuming other expenses will need to be made from that $24m (I doubt corporate overheads are included, for example)... let alone the millions of dollars spent exploring.
I have absolutely no barking idea, but, perhaps, say, $6m exploring and $6m on corporate overheads ?
=$12m profit.
at a P/E of 8 (still risky), this is $96M market cap, or circa $0.50c.
However, any appropriate sensitivity analysis on this must be particularly wide.
POG in $AUD could range from $1000-$2,000.
Cash costs could easily be $700.
Exploration costs could be $12M
Plant could be upgraded in 3 months.
Things may not go well.
Could do 33,000 oz/year instead of 30k oz.
Market could think P/E of anywhere from, say, 6 - 25 is appropriate,
etc, etc, etc.
This is a VERY hard stock to confidently value.
2,000 oz isn't best case -> rumours around the block are that they can do more than 2,500 oz (unsubstantiated, but, nonetheless, lets give them 2,500 oz, like they have said)...
2500 * 800 (current gross profit) * 12 = $24M
However, I'm assuming other expenses will need to be made from that $24m (I doubt corporate overheads are included, for example)... let alone the millions of dollars spent exploring.
I have absolutely no barking idea, but, perhaps, say, $6m exploring and $6m on corporate overheads ?
=$12m profit.
at a P/E of 8 (still risky), this is $96M market cap, or circa $0.50c.
However, any appropriate sensitivity analysis on this must be particularly wide.
POG in $AUD could range from $1000-$2,000.
Cash costs could easily be $700.
Exploration costs could be $12M
Plant could be upgraded in 3 months.
Things may not go well.
Could do 33,000 oz/year instead of 30k oz.
Market could think P/E of anywhere from, say, 6 - 25 is appropriate,
etc, etc, etc.
This is a VERY hard stock to confidently value.
ricee
agree lots of unknowns
fact is if, if, if they now are producing at what they say they can its a multi bagger of 2-2.5 times current sp. possibly a lot more.
need some numbers to regain credibility. not that they lied, they just failed to meet about 6 targets in a row for the last 9 months.
46kg of poured gold suggests they now have it operating fairly well.
agree lots of unknowns
fact is if, if, if they now are producing at what they say they can its a multi bagger of 2-2.5 times current sp. possibly a lot more.
need some numbers to regain credibility. not that they lied, they just failed to meet about 6 targets in a row for the last 9 months.
46kg of poured gold suggests they now have it operating fairly well.
Sean K
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Still require cash costs condog, and then add in exploration costs.
What are the cash costs that they have announced?
Thats why ive been very conservative.
Could have gone with 2500 and 800+ as quoted, but allowing 600 and using 1500-2000 allows a conservative estimate.
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AAM are presenting at the AMEC Convention around lunch time today
http://www.amecconvention.com.au/Program.aspx
http://www.amecconvention.com.au/Program.aspx
Pivotonian
really really good looking
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Can anyone give us a rundown of what they said, or even better know where we can get a copy of the preso?
Check their ASX Announcements for the win.... as I believe it is on there. I hope that answers your question.
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Not a bad day...
Got a mention in the Eureka report last night, up 15% today on the highest volume in 6 months
Really looking forward to the June quarterly :beat:
Got a mention in the Eureka report last night, up 15% today on the highest volume in 6 months
Really looking forward to the June quarterly :beat:
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Was scratching my head about this today! couldnt find any news as to why, glad that finally somethings happening! thanks for the insight as to why.. not a member of the eureka report..
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I know one company that had a great wrap on Eureka at approx $4.00 several years ago and its now 4cents....."EUEEEEEKa"!
Don't believe everything you read
Don't believe everything you read
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A few mishaps, but otherwise this latest batch of news looks quiet good to me!
a closer deposit traded for a further away one + .5mil in cash ontop...
http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20100708/pdf/01077735.pdf
a closer deposit traded for a further away one + .5mil in cash ontop...
http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20100708/pdf/01077735.pdf
Careful!! Note the 300oz per week translates to 15koz pa which is half their forecast 30koz! Yes this is because the feed in grade has been diluted due to moisture issues, but if this can't be rectified then woops, I reckon cashflow might just be squeeezed a little tight.
Let's see - 300oz x ($1400-$700) = $210k a week. Nah, maybe that's enough to cover costs OK?
Anyway, would hope to see that grade fixed asap if I was in still
Let's see - 300oz x ($1400-$700) = $210k a week. Nah, maybe that's enough to cover costs OK?
Anyway, would hope to see that grade fixed asap if I was in still
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Forgot i had an order in for them today while at the gym it was filled...
Share Purchase Plan
The Board is pleased to invite registered holders of shares in A1 Minerals Ltd as at 5pm (WST) on 8th July 2010 with registered addresses in Australia and New Zealand, to make a further investment in your Company by subscribing for up to $15,000 of shares, without incurring brokerage or other transaction costs.
New shares under the SPP will be offered at 18 cents which is a 15% discount to the average market price of shares for the 5 business days preceding this announcement.
The issue will be limited to 59,058,180 shares to raise a possible approximately $10.6 million. This number of shares equates to 30% of the pre offer issued capital and complies with the requirement of ASX listing rule 7.2. To the extent that applications for shares under the SPP exceed the 30% maximum, A1 reserves the right to close the offer earlier and to scale back applications on a pro rata basis.
while at the gym it was filled...Share Purchase Plan
The Board is pleased to invite registered holders of shares in A1 Minerals Ltd as at 5pm (WST) on 8th July 2010 with registered addresses in Australia and New Zealand, to make a further investment in your Company by subscribing for up to $15,000 of shares, without incurring brokerage or other transaction costs.
New shares under the SPP will be offered at 18 cents which is a 15% discount to the average market price of shares for the 5 business days preceding this announcement.
The issue will be limited to 59,058,180 shares to raise a possible approximately $10.6 million. This number of shares equates to 30% of the pre offer issued capital and complies with the requirement of ASX listing rule 7.2. To the extent that applications for shares under the SPP exceed the 30% maximum, A1 reserves the right to close the offer earlier and to scale back applications on a pro rata basis.
Careful!! Note the 300oz per week translates to 15koz pa which is half their forecast 30koz! Yes this is because the feed in grade has been diluted due to moisture issues, but if this can't be rectified then woops, I reckon cashflow might just be squeeezed a little tight.
Let's see - 300oz x ($1400-$700) = $210k a week. Nah, maybe that's enough to cover costs OK?
Anyway, would hope to see that grade fixed asap if I was in still
Obviously wasn't enough
If it were me, I'd be thinking twice, maybe thrice, about whether to cough up more with their past track record- Joined
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hi ppl ive been following the forum for ages now since i bought in on David Haselhursts recommendation @ 34 c plus bought most of his other shares.
would really like 2 hear any1's opinions on the latest ssp Announcement and the future of the company
would really like 2 hear what AAM shareholder and condog have 2 say
im new 2 the share game
cheers
would really like 2 hear any1's opinions on the latest ssp Announcement and the future of the company
would really like 2 hear what AAM shareholder and condog have 2 say
im new 2 the share game
cheers
Sean K
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condogs previous valuation for this company was:
So, going to 50c in 6 mnths and then $1.05.
Massive support between the 18-25c mark, under that looks dodgy. Really needs to bounce here or looks terrible. 15c next support possibly?
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thanks 4 that kennas
but when it comes 2 the SPP @ 18 c do they seriously think any1 is going 2 sign up 4 that now after its already been down 2 15 c today im far from any expert but i know i wouldnt sign up 4 it now , i couldnt see any advantage 2 it
but when it comes 2 the SPP @ 18 c do they seriously think any1 is going 2 sign up 4 that now after its already been down 2 15 c today im far from any expert but i know i wouldnt sign up 4 it now , i couldnt see any advantage 2 it
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Hi Musicman74,
People who make most out of shares are directors, insiders, brokers and tipsters. I didn't see David Hazelhurst's report and did he give reasons for his analysis? I guess you won't find him listing AAM amongst his great picks.
I've been silent, nothing to add to my previous comments.
Read AAM's reports carefully.
eg compare their Table of Mineral Resources Estimates updated 30th June 2010 with the earlier ones! Note the recent one is in grams
and the total is down from 1.7 mill ozs to 41,311,490 gms...... looks better in grams I think that's about 1.33 mill ozs.
They've swapped 2 leases for CASH!!
They want more CASH.
My back of the envelope calculations indicated that was the issue.
Will they get CASH?
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Kennas;Massive support between the 18-25c mark, under that looks dodgy. Really needs to bounce here or looks terrible. 15c next support possibly?
Absolutely right.
A1's a cadaver
Absolutely right.
A1's a cadaver
