AAM - A1 Minerals

[Sean K]

The second gold pour is apparently next week. will be a price catalyst, especially the lead up.

Heard this before somewhere. Alternatively, they will use it as an opportunity to raise some money.

Have management really proved themselves yet?

 

[condog]

The negativity is astounding, they manged to get the tenement, drill the resource, take it to pre production, their crusher is working, they have the carbon flowing, but unfortunately didnt manage to recycle the carbon

Give credit where its due they will overcome that. Teething problems. These things happen.

They have proven them selves so far in everything except cap raising timing and procedures. Which is par for the course when your a minow. Im sure as the company develops they will have better decisions and advisors.

 

[tja125]

Well today's trades were interesting, up 7.69% on high volume. Still seems to be a large number of sellers but they seem to be holding their ground to some degree. Maybe the climb has begun (Lets hope). Will be curious to see if the climb sustains until next week when there will either be another delay or a positive announcement. I may not be as hopeful as yourself condog but i do agree there may be a gradual climb and spike of some kind providing there is a half decent pour.

 

[condog]

imo the only thing that killed the previous price spike was a badly timed and price cap raising.

imo there will be a price spike on speculation and in relation to a good pour if it occurs next week or the week after.

Carbon recycling should now be resolved and the previously loaded carbon on site should be able to be processed pretty quick to contribute towards next pour.

Id imagine they ave a pretty decent sized crucible, but unsure. Im expecting / hoping for 1000 oz, but if they are now fully functional it could be a lot more. anything much over 1000 oz would set the sp on fire.

Apparently the gold room has been assembled, but thats only an apparently, im not certain. The detail was a bit wishy washy.

the latest announcment stated too clear things - JW espects next pour to be next week, and he is still clearly targeting 30,000 oz per annum. That being the case he needs to ramp up to 2500 oz per month. If they are on track, the three weeks they have had since previous pour should enable a 1000oz pour. And the previously loaded carbon should hopefully add to that figure.

Not sure on how thier labour shortages are going, but if they have 24 hour shift on that plant they could possibly deilver a result that is shockingly good compared to the last which is well and truly reflected in current depressed sp.

Interesting week ahead, and glad to be holding.

 

[AAM shareholder]

Twice I tried to reply... last attempt and brief.

Friday AAM drew a hammer on the weekly chart and was up on volume that was greater than the corresponding prior down. This is positive, however the 13/7 moving averages are crossing to the downside. Today 2.30 AAM was down 1cent with low volume (ok so far) and even buys and sells. There is resistance at 34c and the price needs to break up above 29cents first. Note there is a gap in the chart at 24-25cents and gaps generally get filled.

Several members seemed excited about the potential for the stock to run with good news.... there is an old saying "buy the rumor, sell the fact" beware. I'd be happy for you to be right but am skeptical.

AngusSmart ..... there should be no inhibition to discussing the voting forms. Me I'm voting against the latest issue. This doesn't stop the issue but prohibits the directors from getting the right to issue another 15% of the cap. I want more transparency before I give them the right to water down my holdings.

I'm curious re other shareholders here ... are you day traders, why did you buy AAM ...stockbroker recommendation and if so which stockbrokers and how long ago? Are any of you holding larger volume eg to 100 shareholders?

regards

 

[Donga]

Twice I tried to reply... last attempt and brief.

Friday AAM drew a hammer on the weekly chart and was up on volume that was greater than the corresponding prior down. This is positive, however the 13/7 moving averages are crossing to the downside. Today 2.30 AAM was down 1cent with low volume (ok so far) and even buys and sells. There is resistance at 34c and the price needs to break up above 29cents first. Note there is a gap in the chart at 24-25cents and gaps generally get filled.

Several members seemed excited about the potential for the stock to run with good news.... there is an old saying "buy the rumor, sell the fact" beware. I'd be happy for you to be right but am skeptical.

AngusSmart ..... there should be no inhibition to discussing the voting forms. Me I'm voting against the latest issue. This doesn't stop the issue but prohibits the directors from getting the right to issue another 15% of the cap. I want more transparency before I give them the right to water down my holdings.

I'm curious re other shareholders here ... are you day traders, why did you buy AAM ...stockbroker recommendation and if so which stockbrokers and how long ago? Are any of you holding larger volume eg to 100 shareholders?

regards

I bought in about 3 months ago, after seeing their low value relative to being an emerging producer (also holding NAV and GOA on similar basis) and still believe AAM will shine if they can sort out what looks like early teething.

There are a number of shareholders on another forum who are writing to management with now well over 3 million shares between them - here's a snippet. I have not been involved.

"Ok here's where we stand
Bandwagon 664,418 shares
Dratoz 600,000
thrones 55,000
Simon 83 40,000
Hoppie 100,0000+
Shlart 150,000
Troyus 35,000

Ok thats a block of 2,544418...enough perhaps for the directors to pause for a couple of nanoseconds.

Its effectively a Million bucks worth of stock.I suspose everyone else is happy with the further dillution to their stockholding implicit in Resolution 6....ie)anybody else want to leave a chockito in A1's Dillution Pool Party?

I say we ask why the company requires an immediate capital raising of $358600 when theres over $5million at bank and we are in production

The Question rationaly and susinctly asked:"The company has asked for shareholder approval of this capital raising....why is it neccessary?" Now thats our right if nothing else.

Hmm Nathanblogs you're on... anyone else for Lunch after a bit of shareholder activism. KR up for lunch and a wideranging discussion on A1?"

Let me know if you wish to get in touch with the other forum and I will send you details in a private message.

And let's hope for some great news this week

 

[AAM shareholder]

Yes I'd be delighted... and you can add in my 1m (diluted shares) into that mix. Please contact me via my email.

Regards

 

[AngusSmart]

Cheers for the reply

i agree with the vote. i dont see why they were trying to raise money at this time. they clearly have enough to play with, right ontop of production happening soon.

will have to track down the forms now to get my vote in. i dont hold a great deal at the moment. but will sell my under performers, cut the losses and get in on this one..

not a day trader either, dont quiet have the time for it at the moment but was looking into it.

 

[kermit345]

I would also be interested in reading this other forum. Would most likely add my shares to the mix but I don't have a large holding (as i'm young starting out).

 

[AngusSmart]

I would also be interested in reading this other forum. Would most likely add my shares to the mix but I don't have a large holding (as i'm young starting out).

Yes likewise, i wouldnt mind reading some more of peoples thoughts about the company too.

not holding a great deal at the moment, will probably see how the sp goes after the meeting in april..

 

[AAM shareholder]

AAM filled the gap at 24c this morning. I'm having difficulty with this chart and don't like its shape nor the silence from AAM.

There are now lots more nervous shareholders who bought at 25c and 19c who may start to sell unless a really good report is produced.

Wrote to AAM no reply
I want a independent director. I don't want to end up with another Croesus.

 

[tja125]

I am not loving the chart, but i think even a mediocre info release today or tomorrow regarding the gold pour would be enough to keep things looking hopeful.

 

[kermit345]

While the charting is not overly wonderful, it is on the back of some news that hurt shareholder confidence.

Any positive news that becomes front of mind instead of the recent issues, should be a positive catalyst for the share price. While the second pour will hopefully be positive news that gives the SP a boost, i'm in the hope that they are undertaking more exploration and getting results from the turtle zone to hopefully buffer the resource. Now that would be positive news that provides a more substantial increase.

 

[AAM shareholder]

http://www.brr.com.au/event/62204/first-gold-pour-december-2009

Boardroom radio link 27th Oct 2009 AAM interesting to listen and remember that "all that glistens ......" well maybe "the best laid plans...."

Tomorrow is the day... of the big announcement. AAM price daily chart shows indecision but the 13/7 moving ave and MACD are pointing down. A good result may get a bounce but with the US$ still moving up and gold down it may be that only... a bounce. Once the US$ reverses (or at least partly retraces this up move) we might have a rally? in gold shares.

My understanding is that the sophisticated investors who got shares at 25c (a big discount at the time) may not want to hang about. They don't get advice...only large discounts to allow them to be greedy. They are not generally long term shareholders, but have assets of > $2mill and incomes > $200,000 so it will take some time and possibly cap any move from the production announcement.

Now to why I don't want any more shares issued.
Assuming a AUD to US$ at .9, and gold oz = $1000 US, then AUD gold is approx $1100. With production of 30000oz pa and costs of $600 per oz we get the following profit per share,
1. 120m shares, 13c per share, on a PE of 6, share price is approx 78cents
2. 190m shares, 08c per share, on a PE of 6,.............................48cents

It makes a huge difference.
AAM could have pushed the Toll Mill option harder

CRE just processed for 50 days and their grades are half AAM ave grades
They produced 22000 oz at cost of approx $800AUD giving a est profit of $6.6million. With AAM's grades and some of their high grade ore, 50 days could realise $10million+ profit

Even if the mill works I'd be looking for a Toll mill option for a short burst.
The loss of 30000oz from capital doesn't affect the shareholders as much as more shares do (unless you're a director and can issue shares at 8c and options at 20c)

Not everyone believes that gold will breakout to new highs. Prector at www.elliotwave.com believes firmly that its on its way down towards $680 per oz. before the next wave.

regards
ps not heard from Donga but would like to as the meeting is looming

 

[kermit345]

Useful analysis AAM Shareholder. It's amazing the difference that having 50%+ more shares on issue makes to the share price.

There really should be no reason to issue further capital from here as if production can reach a steady point, it should produce constant revenue to cover any costs.

A1 usually make their announcements mid morning from what i've noticed, so looking forward to some action before lunch. say you apply even a 25% discount to those 2 share prices you've eluded to as it may not trade at its value. That is still values of 58.5cents and 36cents respectively. If the share price reaches 58cents over the next 6 months when operations are stabilised i'd be very happy. Also think this is a possibility if exploration proves successful.

 

[AAM shareholder]

Useful analysis AAM Shareholder. It's amazing the difference that having 50%+ more shares on issue makes to the share price.

There really should be no reason to issue further capital from here as if production can reach a steady point, it should produce constant revenue to cover any costs.

A1 usually make their announcements mid morning from what i've noticed, so looking forward to some action before lunch. say you apply even a 25% discount to those 2 share prices you've eluded to as it may not trade at its value. That is still values of 58.5cents and 36cents respectively. If the share price reaches 58cents over the next 6 months when operations are stabilised I'd be very happy. Also think this is a possibility if exploration proves successful.

Kermit..If the gold price crashes then production costs will overwhelm the revenue...this is a risk! Note: the PE of 6 I used was for the example only. Gold shares generally have higher PE ratio (especially when gold is hot) but during the down no one is interested in buying. Look at AAM's monthly chart for it entire history, note the initial enthusiasm and then the continual downwards move to 6cents... who bought there?

Longer term when we get a real gold bull market AAM will be a $$ stock (if its not taken out and if it gets full production....). In 1987 before the crash Perseverence Mining had the hype of gold and all the stocks ran on rumors...by the end it was below 20c.

Don't get too excited
regards
ps XJO might be forming the right shoulder of a head and shoulder or completing an (d) of a 4th wave sideways with an e down or ???
Comment anyone? ps I'm not a Elliot wave guru.

 

[AngusSmart]

I want to buy more.. but im on the fence at the moment..

tossing up whether to wait for this meeting where they may announce a small capital raising.. or to jump in now @ 25c..

you really think gold is going to fall that fast?

 

[AAM shareholder]

I want to buy more.. but im on the fence at the moment..

tossing up whether to wait for this meeting where they may announce a small capital raising.. or to jump in now @ 25c..

you really think gold is going to fall that fast?

Angusmart... I don't know what gold will do. Please read my comments carefully. I mentioned risks and Prector at Elliotwave.com.

What I think will happen and what I do is irrelevant. In an earlier post I mentioned the downside of AAM to 24-25cents and its there now BUT what is happening at AAM...? I don't know.

You and some of the other members here seem so eager and positive that its going to the moon (well I exaggerate) so I suggested looking at the full AAM chart and puting some moving averages on the chart and maybe look at other stocks charts as longer weekly and monthy charts.

All I know is that I have asked for a AAM register yesterday and as of today have been told that the "Share register relationship manager" is waiting for approval from AAM. Last time this happened was before the 8 cent vote and I didn't get the register so I couldn't block their vote

2.00pm Sydney time (approx 12.00 WA I think) AAM .24 to .245
I think there is more selling in block than buying.... ie 5 or 6 sales show the same time (hh.mm.ss)

regards

 

[AAM shareholder]

Maybe "they" read this forum
I just received an email that I can get the AAM register.

Ok what's the betting that the release will be after closing today

 

[tja125]

and now we have silence again... why not at least tell us "the pour has been delayed until.... because...". Annoying.