A-REIT valuation model

A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 27 May 2016


The A-REIT Sector continued to move sideways last week. Still plenty of volatility among the stocks making up the sector.

I updated the Shares on issue; Earnings; Distributions; and Asset backing per share in the tables. It was interesting in seeing that some of the earnings figures had increased substantially where distributions barely changed (if at all). Also some earnings had decreased where the number of shares on issue remained the same. The drop in earnings per share being due to an overall drop in earnings rather than a dilution of earnings through the issue of more shares. The reporting season is drawing very close. I won't be surprised to see some share prices pushed back when the companies report lower than expected earnings.




The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending 27 May 2016 follows:




The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:




Comments:

1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 27 May 2016, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 27 May 2016. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

4. The share codes listed in both Tables now hyper-link to the last page (mostly) of the corresponding ASF thread for that share.

5. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck .

A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 03 June 2016


In a week where the All-Ords dropped 77 points, 1.41%, it was heartening to see the A-REIT Sector contain its drop to only 0.21%. Buy and hold investors must be happy.

End of financial year is drawing near. There will be another round of dividends declared this month and there will likely be another round of portfolio reweighting as fund managers sift out their winners and loser (or use it as an excuse to generate fees before year end). I can't help but wonder if there isn't a massive dividend trap building in the A-REIT Sector as yield chasers push up the prices for returns better than bank interest, while overlooking the sectors' tightening growth prospects. Proceed with caution.




The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending 03 June 2016 follows:




The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:




Comments:

1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 27 May 2016, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 27 May 2016. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

4. The share codes listed in both Tables now hyper-link to the last page (mostly) of the corresponding ASF thread for that share.

5. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck .

A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 10 June 2016


This week the All-Ords only dropped 0.02% while the A-REIT Sector gained a further 1.39%. Once again the A-REIT Sector is head butting the upper bar of the long term channel. Investors keep pushing the sector higher in their quest for yield. In sharp contrast the overseas hedge funds are pushing banks lower as they bet on a contracting mortgage market and the perspective that the Australian Residential property market will collapse like the US market did in the GFC. Fortunately for Australia our unemployment levels are not escalating and our economy is still creeping upward. The grey clouds on the horizon (for Banks & A-REIT's investing in apartment development) could be an oversupply of apartments in the larger metropolitan areas like Sydney and Melbourne.

Proceed with caution.




The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending 10 June 2016 follows:




The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:




Comments:

1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 27 May 2016, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 27 May 2016. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

4. The share codes listed in both Tables now hyper-link to the last page (mostly) of the corresponding ASF thread for that share.

5. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck .[/th][/tr]

A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 17 June 2016


This week the All-Ords dropped a further 2.66% and the A-REIT Sector dropped 0.41%. The A-REIT Sector has tracked sideways for almost a month now between 1420 and 1465. The Britex vote takes place this week (and there is still no clear idea whether they will vote to exit the European Union or not), there is two weeks to go to the Australian Federal Election and less than two weeks before most of the shares making up the A-REIT Sector go ex-dividend. This should be a very interesting week.





The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending 17 June 2016 follows:



The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:




Comments:

1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 27 May 2016, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 27 May 2016. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

4. The share codes listed in both Tables now hyper-link to the last page (mostly) of the corresponding ASF thread for that share.

5. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck .

A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 24 June 2016


With voting not being compulsory only 70% of eligible voters turned out to vote in the "Brexit" referendum in Great Britain. In the lead up to the vote, the bookmakers had the "Stay" voters ahead of the "leave" voters in the polls. Subsequently, at the close of voting, the "leave" voters finished ahead in the referendum by 53.4% to 46.6%. Accordingly 37.38% of eligible voters have determined the outcome of Britain's membership in the European Union.

Already a petition has been circulated to run the poll again on the basis that the 37.38% of eligible voters doesn't represent a majority of the British population. You have to wander if the "Stay" camp became complacent thinking that they were ahead in the polls before the vote and didn't bother to vote.

The Democrats in the U.S. are rightly worried that there will be a flow on effect in the U.S. Elections in November, border control having been a key issue in Britain. If Democrat voters are complacent it is very likely that Donald Trump will galvanise enough voters to become President of the U.S.

During the week, in the lead up to the vote, global markets were bouyant on the likelihood of a "Stay" vote outcome. On Friday, panic set in as Investors scrambled to extract their money or find safe havens when the vote counting started to show the "leave" voters were winning. Now the Germans, French and Italians want a quick divorce. Their fear is, if Britain can leave the Union other countries will follow Britain out the door. There is probably only one certainty in the months ahead, the markets are going to be volatile. Fasten your seat belts we are going to experience some turbulence.





The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending 24 June 2016 follows:




The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:




Comments:

1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 27 May 2016, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 27 May 2016. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

4. The share codes listed in both Tables now hyper-link to the last page (mostly) of the corresponding ASF thread for that share.

5. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck .

"With voting not being compulsory only 70% of eligible voters turned out to vote in the "Brexit" referendum in Great Britain. In the lead up to the vote, the bookmakers had the "Stay" voters ahead of the "leave" voters in the polls. Subsequently, at the close of voting, the "leave" voters finished ahead in the referendum by 53.4% to 46.6%. Accordingly 37.38% of eligible voters have determined the outcome of Britain's membership in the European Union."

I don't agree with that statement. The 30% that did not formally vote actually registered their opinion by NOT voting. They either didn't care which way the vote went or they were prepared to leave it to the "voters" to decide the result. That is what democracy is all about. You should have the right not to vote or to vote. Its no good them saying they want another chance. They had the same chance as those that did vote. Personally I believe that they are better off out of the mess that has been created by the union. Particularly where migration is heading throughout Europe.

The vote has been taken. A result has been recorded. Seems to me those that lost want another toss of the coin. What will it be next?, best out of three?.

A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 01 July 2016


After the initial mad panic of global markets reacting to the news of the "Brexit" poll results, markets around the world rebounded as bargain hunters soaked up the bargains and brought the markets back to the previous euphoric levels. A game of "Monoply" on a global scale. Short the markets, sell everything down, flush out the day traders, flush out the stop losses, flush out the margin loan holders, then start soaking up the lower priced shares. Billions lost and billions made. Collect $200.00 when you pass go and it is all legal.





The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending 01 July 2016 follows:




The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:




Comments:

1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 27 May 2016, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 27 May 2016. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

4. The share codes listed in both Tables now hyper-link to the last page (mostly) of the corresponding ASF thread for that share.

5. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck .[/th][/th]

A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 08 July 2016



Last week the A-REIT Sector gained a further 0.82% as the Australian Election vote counting dragged out, creating a little bit of uncertainty as to how our Federal Government would be made up. Bank shares were slammed again as the impartial and fair international ratings agencies (yeah right) placed a negative watch on them and Australia. The implication being that the cost of raising finance would be higher for our banks, impacting their profitability (I do enjoy a good joke). The flight to safety continued and most of the shares in the A-REIT sector made further modest gains.





The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending 08 July 2016 follows:



The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:



Comments:

1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 27 May 2016, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 27 May 2016. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

4. The share codes listed in both Tables now hyper-link to the last page (mostly) of the corresponding ASF thread for that share.

5. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck .

A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 15 July 2016



Last week the A-REIT Sector gained a further 1.00% while the All-Ords gained 3.66%. The vote counting for the Federal Election is all but over and the Government has been re-elected with a reduced majority. Bank shares rallied as the market breathed a sigh of relief, comfortable that there would be no Royal Commission into the banks questionable business ethics and practices. The U.S jobs report was good. The Bank of England did not reduce interest rates in the wake of Brexit. The pound rallied and the financial community started buying again.

The flight to safe investments in A-REIT's eased however REIT's appear to be back in favour around the world for their continued growth prospects as global economies slowly improve versus negative interest from banks and really low returns on bonds etc. Risk reward perspectives appear to be very cautious for now. A bit like sailing through a minefield, all ahead slow and be ready to abandon ship.




The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending 15 July 2016 follows:




The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:



Comments:

1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 27 May 2016, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 27 May 2016. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.
4. The share codes listed in both Tables now hyper-link to the last page (mostly) of the corresponding ASF thread for that share.

5. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck .

A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 22 July 2016


The demand for safe investments continues with the A-REIT's sector gaining a further 1.92% over the last week. The All-ords pushed to a new 12 month high but is still short of previous highs. There is plenty of international turmoil impacting global economics, yet the global indexes appear to be moving higher on the back of low but persisting economic recovery. Certainly makes for volatility. Good luck.



The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending 22 July 2016 follows:



The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:




Comments:

1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 27 May 2016, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 27 May 2016. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.
4. The share codes listed in both Tables now hyper-link to the last page (mostly) of the corresponding ASF thread for that share.

5. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck .

A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 29 July 2016


The A-REIT's sector gained a further 0.45% over the last week. While the All-ords continued higher with a further 1.25% gain. The All-Ords appears to be climbing at a faster rate since the Federal Election and Brexit where the A-REIT Sector might to be stalling.

The average price/earnings ratio for shares in the sector (excluding National Storage) is only 9.9 suggesting there is still room for further share price rises. Share prices however are now significantly higher than net tangible assets (nta) and although this can be accommodated with allowances for income from management rights etc, there is a component in the improved nta values attributable to the recent rounds of property revaluations. The Australian dollar seems to have stabilised for now around US$0.74. No doubt this is a factor giving overseas investors confidence in A-REIT's. However I expect there will be something come up in the future to initiate some form of panic and the volatility will continue.






The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending 29 July 2016 follows:




The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:




Comments:

1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 27 May 2016, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 27 May 2016. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

4. The share codes listed in both Tables now hyper-link to the last page (mostly) of the corresponding ASF thread for that share.

5. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck .

A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 05 August 2016

The All-Ords dropped this week by 1.03% while the A-REIT Sector dropped 1.95%. The Aud$ appears to be holding, for now, in the US$0.75 - US$0.76 range. The Dow-Jones index jumped 191.48 points on Friday (their time) on the back of a better than expected jobs report. No doubt this will effect our Dollar on Monday. Hopefully this will flow into further gains in our All-Ords and the A-REIT Sector.

The Aud$ v US$.



The All-Ords.



The A-REIT Sector.




The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending 05 August 2016 follows:





The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:




Comments:

1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 27 May 2016, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 27 May 2016. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

4. The share codes listed in both Tables now hyper-link to the last page (mostly) of the corresponding ASF thread for that share.

5. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck .

Official interest rate cut by a further 25 basis points recently. Steady as she goes for A-REITs.

A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 12 August 2016


This week the A-REIT Sector dropped 1.76% while the All-Ords climbed 0.73%. This makes two consecutive weeks of falls across the A-REIT sector. It was probably getting a little bit over heated with the influx of foreign investors seeking secure yields. There has to be a limit as to how high you can push property investment on the back of cheap finance versus an oversupply of offices and apartments coming onto the market in the next few years. The prospects of growth through further development must be tightening though there is likely still room for reduction of costs through mergers and takeovers.





The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending 12 August 2016 follows:




The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:




Comments:

1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 27 May 2016, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 27 May 2016. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

4. The share codes listed in both Tables now hyper-link to the last page (mostly) of the corresponding ASF thread for that share.

5. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck .

A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 19 August 2016


This week the A-REIT Sector moved sideways in a tight range. Some initial investor support with the release of year end figures, offset by profit taking among those investors unsure of future growth prospects.




The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending 19 August 2016 follows:




The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:




Comments:

1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 27 May 2016, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 27 May 2016. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

4. The share codes listed in both Tables now hyper-link to the last page (mostly) of the corresponding ASF thread for that share.

5. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck .

A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 26 August 2016


This week the A-REIT Sector made some small gains as the US Fed again spruked the likelihood of an interest rate rise. Although you would think this has been factored in by now there are still clumps of investors that get in a panic and dive into the A-REIT sector as a safe haven. Makes for ongoing volatility for those confident enough to trade the falls




The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending 26 August 2016 follows:




The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:




Comments:

1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 27 May 2016, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 27 May 2016. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

4. The share codes listed in both Tables now hyper-link to the last page (mostly) of the corresponding ASF thread for that share.

5. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck .

Thanks Nulla.

I think it's steady as she goes for Aussie property trusts in this low interest rate environment.

A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 02 September 2016


This week the US Fed again spruked the likelihood of an interest rate rise and the market retraced. Mexico isn't going to pay for Donald Trump's wall, and Bill Shorten almost ambushed Malcom Turnbull with a Royal Commission into the Australian Banks. More ongoing volatility for those confident enough to trade the falls.





The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending 02 September 2016 follows:



The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:




Comments:

1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 27 May 2016, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 27 May 2016. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

4. The share codes listed in both Tables now hyper-link to the last page (mostly) of the corresponding ASF thread for that share.

5. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck .

Hi Nulla,

On the first page of this thread you mention that the REITS had reduced their debt to equity ratios since the GFC making them a safer investment. Do you have the figures for the amount of debt each of the REITs are carrying now?

Ed.

edman79 said:

Hi Nulla,

On the first page of this thread you mention that the REITS had reduced their debt to equity ratios since the GFC making them a safer investment. Do you have the figures for the amount of debt each of the REITs are carrying now?

Ed.

Click to expand...

I don't have the debt to equity figures at hand for each of the shares making up the A-REIT Sector. You would need to go through the Annual Reports for each stock.