Hello rederob,
This chart which you have give is good. As copper cannot come down because the automobile industry requires a lot. Till the automobile industry is alive copper cannot have any problem.
Top 20 car sales in the US include 5 hybrid types.
Note in the below chart that small cars are dominating sales.
The Chev Malibu was voted "car of the year" in 2008 and has great sales to date: It also is available as a (Mickey Mouse) hybrid!!!
I think my copper price estimates will be blown out of the water in the next bull run.
Careful reading of the post you quoted states that I was looking at an 18 month time frame for the subprime meltdown to wear through. Given you were not posting here I have no idea of your thoughts on this at that time. I think my time frame is reasonable, although "globalisation" seems to add a new spin on old themes.
You might notice that LME inventories are where they were over 4 years ago, and remain well below historical highs. I am confident copper inventories will rise substantially in the near term as present market conditions are dire, so prices will drop further still.
There remains a questionmark over copper stock builds in terms of percentage increases week on week. Overall copper inventories have been rising at a subdued pace. If you were using copper as a "barometer" for industrial activity the forecast would be for fair weather, not foul.
The next ride is likely to be stronger and longer, as by then the impact of emerging economies will be considerably greater. Cap this off with benign western economies consuming to their heart's content and we have the critical ingredients for a massive bull market.
I began this thread over 11 years ago and so much has changed.Thus, I do not agree with your assessment of a continued and stronger commodities bull market.
Rob, would you mind if I copy and pasted this post over to the Copper Charts thread? I always apprciate what you have to say and I would like to hang onto it where I can find it?I began this thread over 11 years ago and so much has changed.
We now know a lot more about the actual quantities of copper used in all forms of electric vehicles. My original figures were very conservative for HEVs and as BEVs were not on the scene back then, we now have a new metric. HEVs will disappear and BEVs will become the new normal, consuming about 4 times the amount of copper as an ICE (internal combustion engine) alternative.
What I did do in my first post in 2007 was to look at at how much copper would be needed to convert the entire car fleet to EVs by 2027, just to show the massive volumes of copper involved. (There was no way that our manufacturing base could achieve that, even if every vehicle manufactured since 2007 was an EV.)
WRT to the ducati quote, I never assumed that after the subprime meltdown there would be an immediate shift to a bull market of any sort. Commodity bulls are very few and far between - just look at oil and gold as examples. However, as the BEV market accelerates, there is every chance that a number of metals essential to EVs will stretch the supply chain such that in a flat world economy there will be areas of significant outperformance.
Over the next few weeks I will look around to see if the major copper producers have any data or specific reports on what they regard as probable.
There is no chart Ann, but feel free.Rob, would you mind if I copy and pasted this post over to the Copper Charts thread? I always apprciate what you have to say and I would like to hang onto it where I can find it?
Thanks Rob, I think I will get Joe to change the heading to just Copper. Once it was up I realized it precluded FA and that is always interesting and a valuable asset in any discussion.There is no chart Ann, but feel free.
Well Copperheads everywhere must be cheering today, POC breaking to new highs.
Nearly stepped on a copperhead once, good thing it was earlish morning and it was sluggish... I jumped like a gazelle mid stride!
I believe I should start digging out my scrap copper collection and get stripping again.... insulation that is!
Have a air conditioner I picked up about a year ago, someone chucking it out.
It's an old school in wall jobbie, and has 2 copper cored exchangers... I'm guessing that maybe their worth around $100
Also have a bunch of old heavy duty HV mains cable, the stuff that has petroleum jelly and paper wrap as insulation and the outside sheath is lead...yeehaa.
Last trip to the scrappies was around late 2006, early 2007 and bright shiny wire was around $9.50 per kilo.
I remember driving past Lucas Heights nuclear reactor area and saw someone had dumped an old car radiator, mostly copper it was.
Got $40 in scrap for the U turn to jump out and pick that up.... I reckon a radiator like that is probably worth $300 as a spare part now though, after a recore that is.
Anyway, enough of me reliving the dream...
60 year chart
View attachment 119857
20year chart
View attachment 119858
When does the thieving start, when functional equipment is rendered useless by opportunism(= vandalism)?been collecting scrap for over 15 years waiting for times such as these.... I'm holding out for over $4...
Scenes from Council clean-up day.... All electric fans and other machinery with copper,, put out for collection; busted open and coils taken, plastic and housing scattered and left lying aroundif there's anyone else out there like me, they've been collecting scrap for over 15 years waiting for times such as these.
Grubs.Scenes from Council clean-up day.... All electric fans and other machinery with copper,, put out for collection; busted open and coils taken, plastic and housing scattered and left lying around
I like OZL most as their gold byproduct credits mean every ounce of copper is profitable.Thanks @rederob . You cannot beat copper to hold its value in the long term, nor iron ore. Which copper stocks turn your fancy ?
gg
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