95% ASX100 success rate

[RobertoHood]

Back in NAB for another cheeky wee trade
Should go very well ....unless China decide to devalue again !
In @ 32.015


Anyone wanna have a shot in the dark where i plan to take profits?

 

[pinkboy]

Back in NAB for another cheeky wee trade
Should go very well ....unless China decide to devalue again !
In @ 31.015

You mean $32.015?

And outside your supposed 'system' ?

pinkboy

 

[RobertoHood]

You mean $32.015?

And outside your supposed 'system' ?

pinkboy

Oops Yes pinkboy

 

[RobertoHood]

Oops Yes pinkboy

pinkboy , my system predicts which stocks will be up from Monday's open at Fridays close so far with 95% accuracy.

If i take profits during the week , and then the stock falls below Mondays open e.g NAB and by a decent percentage.

I will buy again because there is a 95% chance it will end at/or above Mondays open by Friday.

Pretty simple

 

[pinkboy]

pinkboy , my system predicts which stocks will be up from Monday's open at Fridays close so far with 95% accuracy.

If i take profits during the week , and then the stock falls below Mondays open e.g NAB and by a decent percentage.

I will buy again because there is a 95% chance it will end at/or above Mondays open by Friday.

Pretty simple

It's not pretty simple anymore. You just added a complexity. And it's not part of your 'system'.

pinkboy

 

[RobertoHood]

Big sell of at the end of today

ASX100 = -1.62%
Stock Picks = -.812%

 

[RobertoHood]

It's not pretty simple anymore. You just added a complexity. And it's not part of your 'system'.

pinkboy

Like i stated earlier, the SYSTEM predicts stocks which will be up for the week.

How one goes about trading it is up to there own risk management interpretation

The SYSTEM is still the same regardless.

Regards
Roberto

 

[cynic]

Big sell of at the end of today

ASX100 = -1.62%
Stock Picks = -.812%

Overall statistics pertaining to outperformance of the XJO would be interesting.

 

[RobertoHood]

Overall statistics pertaining to outperformance of the XJO would be interesting.

S&P/ASX 200 (^AXJO) = -1.59%

 

[cynic]

S&P/ASX 200 (^AXJO) = -1.69%

My post was a bit too light on detail. I was thinking that the selections made pursuant to your formulae/methodology might be consistently outperforming a shortable index and that perhaps this could be used as a basis for a trading strategy.

 

[RobertoHood]

Well well well , isn't that ironic!

The week i decide to post ,we experience a rough week and my theory gets spanked with a big wet fish!

Prior to this week, the 1 BUY signal which failed happened on the week of Jun 1 - Jun 5 which was a -4.84% week drop on the ASX100.

My ACCURACY now sits at

24/30 = 80% (5 of those Losses from this week)


ASX200: -2.16%
ASX100 : -2.22%
6 Stock Picks : -1.57%

I took a loss from yesterdays BUY on NAB @32.015 , and sold today @31.76 (-0.8% Loss)

CTX : -1.833
LLC : -.805
NAB : -3.47
OSH : -1.903
REC : .286
S32: -3.24



I will post my BUY signals for next week later on tonight, may even start posting PnL next week , although she was a rough week , i still walked away with some decent profits.... but my pride on the other hand took a few hits !

Hope everyone walked away from the week mostly unscathed!

 

[cynic]

Your picks outperformed the index by over half a percent!


If this is a regular occurrence, your selection technique may have a useful edge.

 

[tech/a]

Looking forward to next weeks

 

[montauk66]

If this worked you'd have made 1m from 30k if you started in 2009.

 

[RobertoHood]

Your picks outperformed the index by over half a percent!


If this is a regular occurrence, your selection technique may have a useful edge.

Yes its very interesting though, i only got one BUY signal (which ended up being a false signal) for the week of Jun 1 - Jun 5, which i thought was odd... until the market closed that week down almost 5%. Almost as if the market knew it was going to happen.

This week started like all the others, i had multiple BUY signals (6) and at Mondays close 5/6 were up.

On Tuesday 5/6 were up most of the day and 6/6 at some stages. The market was on track to close higher and yada yada yada and then BANG!

China devalued the Yuan which sent out a shockwave which i don't think the Market expected.

Which i think is the reason for the bad week.

NOW this could be wishful think and i am no expert,

but there is no other explanation why this system would fail horribly on the back of a 23/24 run other than ... it doesn't work and im clutching at straws... which i myself fail to believe.

Its going to be very interesting to see how many BUY signals i get for next! (Which i will check for later and post after the gym)

Im excited

 

[tech/a]

It's pretty common.
If the market down turns
Long signals deminish

 

[Wysiwyg]

If this worked you'd have made 1m from 30k if you started in 2009.

Brokers dream.

@ Tech/a -- why such restraint? You could probably say something like -- the testing had not seen a week like this one.

 

[tech/a]

Brokers dream.

@ Tech/a -- why such restraint? You could probably say something like -- the testing had not seen a week like this one.

Evidently it did in July
That's why I said its common.
Seen it many times

 

[RobertoHood]

Alright guys here's what i have for next week;

AST
BHP
IAG
NVT
TAH
TWE

 

[skc]

Alright guys here's what i have for next week;

AST
BHP
IAG
NVT
TAH
TWE

Your 12 weeks history yielded only 23 signals, or <2 per week. This week and next week you have 6 signals per week.

Any reason as to why?