1937-8 Dow compared to 2008-9

[MR.]

What about the action subsequent from the top ?

The DOW really only goes up
( for very good reasons )
1929 was the exception

So this time it is different.... yes.... (and we will not make Japan's mistakes) so the questions this time round then are :
How much money will the US need to print?
Will the opposition become even greater against the printing as time goes on?
So.... How much will they actually print? Will it be enough?

Perhaps the above doesn't really matter and the point is simply "it will not be as bad." Point taken..... However, IMHO didn't think it would. Dropping from 380 down to 42 in three years is one hell of a fall, down to a ninth of its value in three years! That would have made the low in the DOW this time of 1540

What do you think will be the low with the DOW this time? Have a stab!
3500 is mine!

 

[Aussiejeff]

So this time it is different.... yes.... (and we will not make Japan's mistakes) so the questions this time round then are :
How much money will the US need to print?
Will the opposition become even greater against the printing as time goes on?
So.... How much will they actually print? Will it be enough?

Perhaps the above doesn't really matter and the point is simply "it will not be as bad." Point taken..... However, IMHO didn't think it would. Dropping from 380 down to 42 in three years is one hell of a fall, down to a ninth of its value in three years! That would have made the low in the DOW this time of 1540

What do you think will be the low with the DOW this time? Have a stab!
3500 is mine!

Sub 3000.

 

[MR.]

Sub 3000.

View attachment CHART 1900-2009-A-a.bmp
We know most of the things causing further potential downward presures.

I arrived at 3500 via simply the trend line above. Trying to Keep it in some sort of perspective. 1269% rise in 20 years 1980 - 2000. I also would not be supprised if it was sub 3000!

3500 still means a lose of 1/2 the share market again.....
Perhaps close enough then for this long termer.
But it's the ASX which needs further study.

Would/can you explain your sub 3000?

 

[metric]

reinhardt predicted the dow at 3000 a year ago.....

.

 

[MR.]

reinhardt predicted the dow at 3000 a year ago.....

.

He's miles out then.

So he's not just days out..... he's at least a year out then!
That's the way I read it?

 

[Dowdy]

http://api.ning.com/files/AwcqrPivB...Z82l176idQKOnW-nGw5xwaw9BwYT/1937DowJones.jpg

pure coincidence? or are the markets MANIPULATED AND TIMED?



.

Interesting graph but that means we've already reached the bottom since the DOW is at 7300

I think the DOW had alot more to drop before it bottoms

 

[metric]

He's miles out then.

So he's not just days out..... he's at least a year out then!
That's the way I read it?

no. thats not what i meant.

 

[agathos]

Hi everyone @ ASF,

There use to be a chart that's posted here in other threads, which I would like to share with our fellow ASF mates.

Source: The Princeton Economic Institute, 1997. The Economic Confidence Model. .

I hope I can upload the chart this time.

agathos.