1937-8 Dow compared to 2008-9

[metric]

specific dates are not 'open language'....although they may be if one couldnt read.....

hes american. 9th feb is the 9th of feb over there. so when its the 10th.....it is the very next day. only 1 day....ok?

anything else i can help you with? lol


.

 

[prawn_86]

specific dates are not 'open language'....although they may be if one couldnt read.....

hes american. 9th feb is the 9th of feb over there. so when its the 10th.....it is the very next day. only 1 day....ok?

anything else i can help you with? lol

Ok, so you admit he was wrong on that last call then?

 

[metric]

no.

 

[sinner]

Ok, so you admit he was wrong on that last call then?

You've got to admit, going short the SP500 or DJIA on Feb9/10 would not have been a bad position.

My own strategy gave an alarm on Feb 8 when the SP500 daily could not even break the 50MA. So going short in anticipation of the drop would have been even more profitable...

I also posted a bunch of articles in the reinhardt thread which also called for a drop even possible drop by dow theory!

 

[prawn_86]

You've got to admit, going short the SP500 or DJIA on Feb9/10 would not have been a bad position.

Yeh i admit that. But in a down trend, the probability is with going short.

I just find it amusing that Metric thinks this guy has never been wrong, yet he was wrong with his last call. 1 - he was a day out (still wrong, even if only by a day) and 2 - he never defined a 'crash'. Would Metric have claimed a 100 point fall? If it broke new lows then i would have paid it, but otherwise i maintain that he was wrong for that particular call

 

[Largesse]

if my left ear gets itchy before 2:39pm in the afternoon on any given day i go short

 

[sinner]

Well we can agree there that was my first question "what qualifies a crash" and he said 1000+ points on the Dow. Only 200 points off that at this point...so by strict definition I guess not.

I'm still watching keenly. There have been weird goings on in the market this week, rational people who know what they are talking about are even noting it.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/801-RED-ALERT-FX-Dislocation-In-Process.html

This price action was noted in forums everywhere, and by commentators like Yves Smith. Scalpers warned to stay out or risk getting blown away in the volatility. Then we saw what happened to the indices when US markets opened and the fear hasn't subsided yet.

Who knows how that secret cabal, Legatus operates?

 

[metric]

I'm still watching keenly. There have been weird goings on in the market this week, rational people who know what they are talking about are even noting it.

...:bier:

 

[Trembling Hand]

Scalpers warned to stay out or risk getting blown away in the volatility. .

LOL, then they aren't scalpers!!

 

[CanOz]

Well we can agree there that was my first question "what qualifies a crash" and he said 1000+ points on the Dow. Only 200 points off that at this point...so by strict definition I guess not.

I'm still watching keenly. There have been weird goings on in the market this week, rational people who know what they are talking about are even noting it.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/801-RED-ALERT-FX-Dislocation-In-Process.html

This price action was noted in forums everywhere, and by commentators like Yves Smith. Scalpers warned to stay out or risk getting blown away in the volatility. Then we saw what happened to the indices when US markets opened and the fear hasn't subsided yet.

Who knows how that secret cabal, Legatus operates?

Not enough fear yet....the VIX hasn't spiked....anyone got a chart of the VIX current to the 18th?

CanOz

 

[sinner]

Ask and ye shall receive.

Note the jump to 50 corresponded perfectly with the 20MA of the put/call ratio hitting -2SD on the 1y chart.

 

[Aussiejeff]

About every 70 yrs there is a depression, Last in in the 30's had a false bottom ( no the sort Elton John carries) the market tanked had a rally and tanked again [size=+1]until the War[/size]. Keep a close eye on it all.

That's the clincher. What dragged the world out of the 30's Depression was a ruddy BIG WORLD WAR which, in addition to being a catastrophe in human terms, ironically had a huge economic stimulatory effect as a by-product of massive investment in arms manufacturing, huge steel works developments etc, etc which re-employed MILLIONS of till then unemployed workers (mostly labourers & factory hands).

It was WW2 that turned struggling, near broke Western economies around and triggered a great Post War BOOM in technology and manufacturing that has lasted until NOW. So, do we need a WW3?

If not, how is a world BOOM in manufacturing & technology going to be kickstarted?? Oh, sure. CHINA & INDIA will save us all. Do we REALLY believe that?

aj

 

[MR.]

View attachment chart 1900-2009-b.bmp

What is similar is the lead up to both "finiancial crisis" like the chart above "in a fuzzy kind of way"
I also see stay puffed marshmellow men in the clouds

War..... lets not go there! We learn from our mistakes!

 

[motorway]

View attachment 28067

What is similar is the lead up to both "finiancial crisis" like the chart above "in a fuzzy kind of way"
I also see stay puffed marshmellow men in the clouds

War..... lets not go there! We learn from our mistakes!

What about the action subsequent from the top ?

one of the reasons

The gold standard and the Great Depression.

The current judgment of economic historians (see, for example, Barry J. Eichengreen, Golden Fetters) is that attachment to the gold standard played a major part in keeping governments from fighting the Great Depression, and was a major factor turning the recession of 1929-1931 into the Great Depression of 1931-1941.

Countries that were not on the gold standard in 1929--or that quickly abandoned the gold standard--by and large escaped the Great Depression
Countries that abandoned the gold standard in 1930 and 1931 suffered from the Great Depression, but escaped its worst ravages.

Countries that held to the gold standard through 1933 (like the United States) or 1936 (like France) suffered the worst from the Great Depression
Commitment to the gold standard prevented Federal Reserve action to expand the money supply in 1930 and 1931--and forced President Hoover into destructive attempts at budget-balancing in order to avoid a gold standard-generated run on the dollar.

Commitment to the gold standard left countries vulnerable to "runs" on their currencies--Mexico in January of 1995 writ very, very large. Such a run, and even the fear that there might be a future run, boosted unemployment and amplified business cycles during the gold standard era.

The standard interpretation of the Depression, dating back to Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz's Monetary History of the United States, is that the Federal Reserve could have but for some mysterious reason did not boost the money supply to cure the Depression; but Friedman and Schwartz do not stress the role played by the gold standard in tieing the Federal Reserve's hands--the "golden fetters" of Eichengreen.

Friedman was and is aware of the role played by the gold standard--hence his long time advocacy of floating exchange rates, the antithesis of the gold standard.

A gold standard has not been used in any major economy since that time.A true gold standard came to fruition in 1900 with the passage of the Gold Standard Act. The gold standard effectively came to an end in 1933 when President Franklin D. Roosevelt outlawed private gold ownership (except for the purposes of jewelery).

President Richard Nixon ended trading of gold at the fixed price of $35/ounce. At that point for the first time in history, formal links between the major world currencies and real commodities were severed". The gold

The DOW really only goes up
( for very good reasons )
1929 was the exception

motorway

 

[metric]

and just on the subject of...WAR...

reinhardt says historically war is 'achieved' after the completion of infrastruture and public works projects.....

the world is once again announcing and starting massive public works projects....the completion dates are the beginning of war...2012-3.

incidently.....in 1928 (begins last depression) ford re-tooled the russian auto industry. factries they used to beat the germans...

in 2008 (beginning of new depression) ford AND gm are re-tooling the russian auto industry (oz gm factroy just sent out equipt over there as well) again...

none of this is coincidence. it is manufactured to happen.


.

 

[sinner]

Why do you keep bringing that up? Just seems like fear mongering to me...

 

[metric]

9 months ago i was posting on hotcopper saying banks were shot and commodities were on the way out....i was howled down, and banned a few times in the process....

i posted many articles backing up my claims.....and many people said to me..."Why do you keep bringing that up? Just seems like fear mongering to me....".

either you can prepare, or stick your head in the sand and pretent it wont happen.....

alternate media has made me a lot of money in the last 9 months.....1stly i pulled out of the market because of it...and bought gold and silver because of it. ive nearly doubled my money on gold, and done pretty well on silver.

while those with many more years experience in the market than i, have followed mainstream advice, and now are either broke, ruined, much poorer, or still in the market with horrible losses.

.

 

[motorway]

Such a run, and even the fear that there might be a future run, boosted unemployment and amplified business cycles during the gold standard era.

The good old days

of the gold standard

You could almost set a clock by it
( non linear one of course )

expansion contraction expansion contraction
sell buy sell buy

The dynamic of tIME looks like a compression wave
( years at the bottom of the chart )

motorway

 

[Sean K]

Why do you keep bringing that up? Just seems like fear mongering to me...

If he keeping mentioning reinharht talking about something eventually he'll get something right. Just like he got the 9 Feb armageddon call right.

And metric, well done on picking that the market was going to fall over.

Nice one.

 

[metric]

If he keeping mentioning reinharht talking about something eventually he'll get something right. Just like he got the 9 Feb armageddon call right.

And metric, well done on picking that the market was going to fall over.

Nice one.

well, shucks kennas.....

i really cant take all the credit. reinhardt said the market would crash on sept 15 2008......over 6 months in advance. i guess i just listened....

but thank you for the compliment.