Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

1937-8 Dow compared to 2008-9

Patterns such as these, i.e. the large triangle, come about and repeat because of psychology of the participants. The whole basis of Elliott Wave theory is plotting social mood.
 
Hmmmm. But, WILL those charts guide us truthfully this time?? Can I bank on that rebound in March/April??? :cool:

You probably would have made the same statement about a month or 3 ago :)

Otherwise...

* will make counting waves easier
* you will know when the go short or long
* just a coincidence ?????

Reminds me of Split Endz (History never repeats)...

Never repeats!...
Hey.... Hey....
Never repeats!

And I say, that's all
Remember til the next time

Tim
 
good point nick..

considering the universal monopoly of mainstream media, and its relative influence on societies view of the world and events, is mainstream media a driver of mood, or a reporter of it..?

if it is a driver of mood, what does this say?

.
 
About every 70 yrs there is a depression, Last in in the 30's had a false bottom ( no the sort Elton John carries) the market tanked had a rally and tanked again until the War. Keep a close eye on it all.
 
Patterns such as these, i.e. the large triangle, come about and repeat because of psychology of the participants. The whole basis of Elliott Wave theory is plotting social mood.

Should post your charts Nick, you've been there and done that.

Cheers,



CanOz
 
Watch out for the ideas of March. If history repeats itself there could well be some bad days around then. On the other hand, if you have the nerve, there may well be some great opportunities around then.
 
Watch out for the ideas of March. If history repeats itself there could well be some bad days around then. On the other hand, if you have the nerve, there may well be some great opportunities around then.

Oops, ides not ideas. Could be a freudian slip though.
 
Woohoo! Wow, according to those eerily coincidental charts, then, we only have another month to go of DOWN then ... get set for LIFT-OFF into the stratosphere!!??
Not sure if i'm missing something here, and please correct me if I'm wrong, but shouldn't we be comparing the current DOW situation to that commencing in 1929? The nasdaq compares well to the 1929 chart coming off the back of the tech wreck but the DOW must be more representative of the US situation in whole.

If you did compare now to the DOW starting from 1929 you would expect a turn around in 2010 sometime. Though maybe based on the charts behaviour and the implications for the herd mentality you could be looking for an entry in late March with a possible hold of a month or two?
 
Not sure if i'm missing something here, and please correct me if I'm wrong, but shouldn't we be comparing the current DOW situation to that commencing in 1929? The nasdaq compares well to the 1929 chart coming off the back of the tech wreck but the DOW must be more representative of the US situation in whole.

If you did compare now to the DOW starting from 1929 you would expect a turn around in 2010 sometime. Though maybe based on the charts behaviour and the implications for the herd mentality you could be looking for an entry in late March with a possible hold of a month or two?

Agree, it doesn't seem right to compare it to 1937s/1938s because the crash happened from 1929 to 1933. And then they had a almost 400% move in Apr 1937.

This chart is a simple "curve fit".
 
:confused:
Agree, it doesn't seem right to compare it to 1937s/1938s because the crash happened from 1929 to 1933. And then they had a almost 400% move in Apr 1937.

This chart is a simple "curve fit".

Absolutely...

it is about as significant as the "Bible Code"

and just as predictive...

Of what is wrong with this type of analysis

One is the assumption that the speeds that events are unfolding
are comparable...

maybe a monthly chart in 1937 = A daily chart 2009

( But then it wouldn't anyway for very long )

Maybe it is 1932/33 now ?

What was the first rally from the ultimate bottom in the Dow
and then 1933 ?

But so what...

at best guides

people are always the same true
They think they see shapes everywhere even in clouds

You can slide two time series across each other
until they match up and reveal patterns as in shapes..
But only till they don't




more likely we see a 1932 rally
at some point

imo...
motorway

The charts of then and now seem to
have very little in common
 

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Just on looks

It looks more like 1974

But you know what they say about looks ;)


motorway
 

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One more

3 reversal chart

For Discussion Only

Every time the price series hit the lower channel
it was time to BUY not SELL

and


The DOW really only goes up
( for very good reasons )
1929 was the exception
does it make the rule ?

For Discussion Only
DYOR

motorway
 

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Oops, ides not ideas. Could be a freudian slip though.


reinhardt just mentioned the dates....on a chat forum.

reinhardt i am seriously looking at march 15-16 1009 ............

reinhardt actually march 13 on ................

reinhardt MONEY
 
reinhardt just mentioned the dates....on a chat forum.

reinhardt i am seriously looking at march 15-16 1009 ............

reinhardt actually march 13 on ................

reinhardt MONEY

Oh yeh, just how it was going to be Feb 9th hey? :rolleyes: I guess if you pick enough dates in a falling market you will get some of them right.

Does he still mention his Feb 9th call which never eventuated??
 
Oh yeh, just how it was going to be Feb 9th hey? :rolleyes: I guess if you pick enough dates in a falling market you will get some of them right.

Does he still mention his Feb 9th call which never eventuated??


well he was 1 day out over 6 months......

and he has called some dates again. to my knowledge he hasnt yet called a date that was wrong....

why dont you pick a date for a 400 point drop in the dow....prawn...lol

.
 
well he was 1 day out over 6 months......

and he has called some dates again. to my knowledge he hasnt yet called a date that was wrong....
why dont you pick a date for a 400 point drop in the dow....prawn...lol

How does a 400 point drop constitute a crash? He does what all other guru's do, uses open languauge so people can interpret it their own way.

So you think he hasnt been wrong yet, but you just contradict yourself by admitting he was wrong about Feb 9th? And i thought it was 2 days out...

Im not gunna pick a date, as i would be guessing just as much as he is.
 
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