WA senate re-election 2014

[sydboy007]

The real problem is that to plug the hole the ALP will need to start putting up a decent opposition. With the possible exception of Chris Bowen, talent is very thin on the ground.

I wouldn't even include Palmer in that list. He's just a shiny object that people keep staring at. The major parties should hang their heads in shame that a guy like Palmer can win 12% of the vote on a platform of nothing.

The fact that Tasmania and QLD had a high vote for PUP yet they would lose out to any change in the way GST is distributed doesn't bode too well for the next election, but then too many voters seem to have short memories these days

Is it too much to hope for a leader who can articulate the challenges we face, and articulate a strategy to overcome those challenges that does really share the burden across the whole of our society? The superannuation system along with the aged pension is close to destroying the budget, yet we have as top priorities dames and sirs or Macklin's myopic response to try and wedge the Government on pension changes.

Rumour is we'll have a very substandard Japan Australia FTA announced. Yes to the free for all of Japanese imports, pretty much ora (japanese for no) to much in the way of increased access for Australian agricultural products. It's the US FTA all over again. Our trade competitors must love negotiating with the O4B Liberals because they don't seem to care much about local interests.

 

[drsmith]

Rumour is.........

Their track record with international negotiations thus far is actually pretty good.

 

[sydboy007]

Their track record with international negotiations thus far is actually pretty good.

Well if that's your focus, but I'm more worried about the bum deals we're getting from the Liberal negotiation skills, or lack thereof really. I'll be surprised if JAFTA is any better than the below KAFTA crapola deal.

The Korea FTA takes 15 years to remove beef and white sugar tariffs. Canned fruit exports take 5 to 10 years to have their tariffs fully removed. Rice, honey apples and pears and condensed milk (up to 250% tariff) were excluded from the deal. High tariffs of 36 per cent on cheese and 89 per cent on butter will be eliminated between 13 and 20 years. Korea will eliminate its 22.5 per cent tariff on all sheep and goat meat over 10 years. Tariffs on key pork exports of 22.5 to 25 per cent will be eliminated in five to 15 years. Korea will provide a growing duty-free quota for malt and malting barley and eliminate high out-of-quota tariffs of 269 and 513 per cent over 15 years.

88 per cent of Australia’s manufactures, resources and energy exports will enter Korea duty free, with Korea phasing out all remaining tariffs within ten years;

86 per cent of Korea’s manufacturing, resources and energy exports will enter Australia duty free, with Australia phasing out remaining tariffs for the most import-sensitive manufacturing products progressively within eight years.

Why does it take 2 years longer for Australia to get the same benefits as Korea?

They also included ISDS within the FTA, claiming some safe guards that have so far proved ineffective in other FTAs.

The most disturbing part of the FTA is that should Australian agricultural exports increase by more than 2% in any year, yes 2%, then the Koreans can unilaterally reimpose higher tariffs. Seriously, what's the point of the FTA when if it does actually start to benefit us the Korea can just backtrack on any tariff reductions?? No such clause for Australian imports seems to have been included.

Korea received IMMEDIATE removal of tariffs on cars and electronics.

The ACCI has come out today and said "…unless technical elements of the Korean deal are redrafted before it is formally ratified, it will become *“unworkable in a commercial sense”, as will the Japanese deal if its compliance clauses are not drafted in a business-friendly way…"

In a different survey of companies Asia-wide cited by the chamber, fewer than 30 per cent of the firms responding used the concessions available to them under FTAs. Large transnational companies love FTAs because they have the resources to take advantage of them, but the smaller companies in Australia find the costs involved too high to make it worth their while. besides BHP and RIO, whcih I'd argue aren't really Australian companies, just how many transational companies do we have that can benefit from these FTAs and their noodle like complexity of different ROOs and quotas.

 

[Calliope]

The fact that Tasmania and QLD had a high vote for PUP yet they would lose out to any change in the way GST is distributed doesn't bode too well for the next election, but then too many voters seem to have short memories these days

Is it too much to hope for a leader who can articulate the challenges we face, and articulate a strategy to overcome those challenges that does really share the burden across the whole of our society? The superannuation system along with the aged pension is close to destroying the budget, yet we have as top priorities dames and sirs or Macklin's myopic response to try and wedge the Government on pension changes.

Rumour is we'll have a very substandard Japan Australia FTA announced. Yes to the free for all of Japanese imports, pretty much ora (japanese for no) to much in the way of increased access for Australian agricultural products. It's the US FTA all over again. Our trade competitors must love negotiating with the O4B Liberals because they don't seem to care much about local interests.

:topic

 

[Calliope]

Well if that's your focus, but I'm more worried about the bum deals we're getting from the Liberal negotiation skills, or lack thereof really. I'll be surprised if JAFTA is any better than the below KAFTA crapola deal.

The Korea FTA takes 15 years to remove beef and white sugar tariffs. Canned fruit exports take 5 to 10 years to have their tariffs fully removed. Rice, honey apples and pears and condensed milk (up to 250% tariff) were excluded from the deal. High tariffs of 36 per cent on cheese and 89 per cent on butter will be eliminated between 13 and 20 years. Korea will eliminate its 22.5 per cent tariff on all sheep and goat meat over 10 years. Tariffs on key pork exports of 22.5 to 25 per cent will be eliminated in five to 15 years. Korea will provide a growing duty-free quota for malt and malting barley and eliminate high out-of-quota tariffs of 269 and 513 per cent over 15 years.

88 per cent of Australia’s manufactures, resources and energy exports will enter Korea duty free, with Korea phasing out all remaining tariffs within ten years;

86 per cent of Korea’s manufacturing, resources and energy exports will enter Australia duty free, with Australia phasing out remaining tariffs for the most import-sensitive manufacturing products progressively within eight years.

Why does it take 2 years longer for Australia to get the same benefits as Korea?

They also included ISDS within the FTA, claiming some safe guards that have so far proved ineffective in other FTAs.

The most disturbing part of the FTA is that should Australian agricultural exports increase by more than 2% in any year, yes 2%, then the Koreans can unilaterally reimpose higher tariffs. Seriously, what's the point of the FTA when if it does actually start to benefit us the Korea can just backtrack on any tariff reductions?? No such clause for Australian imports seems to have been included.

Korea received IMMEDIATE removal of tariffs on cars and electronics.

The ACCI has come out today and said "…unless technical elements of the Korean deal are redrafted before it is formally ratified, it will become *“unworkable in a commercial sense”, as will the Japanese deal if its compliance clauses are not drafted in a business-friendly way…"

In a different survey of companies Asia-wide cited by the chamber, fewer than 30 per cent of the firms responding used the concessions available to them under FTAs. Large transnational companies love FTAs because they have the resources to take advantage of them, but the smaller companies in Australia find the costs involved too high to make it worth their while. besides BHP and RIO, whcih I'd argue aren't really Australian companies, just how many transational companies do we have that can benefit from these FTAs and their noodle like complexity of different ROOs and quotas.

:topic AGAIN

 

[drsmith]

With 92.49% of the votes counted, it's tight for that last spot.

Party Transfer Total Votes % Votes Quotas
Liberal +13,899 141,695 14.34% 1.0035
Australian Labor Party +392 140,694 14.23% 0.9964

http://www.abc.net.au/news/wa-senate-2014/detail/

 

[drsmith]

Well if that's your focus, but I'm more worried about the bum deals we're getting from the Liberal negotiation skills, or lack thereof really.

Border security is the first responsibility of any sovereign government.

 

[sydboy007]

Border security is the first responsibility of any sovereign government.

arrival via boat = bad

unlimited arrivals via budget airline 457 visa = good

would the second responsibility be to actully be capable of negotiating a trade deal that benefits the country at least as much as the other party?

 

[drsmith]

arrival via boat = bad

I'm glad you agree.

It's a pity Labor and the Greens don't.

 

[Julia]

Syd, if you want to discuss FTA s then perhaps start its own thread. This is about the WA Senate re-run.

 

[Calliope]

arrival via boat = bad

unlimited arrivals via budget airline 457 visa = good

would the second responsibility be to actully be capable of negotiating a trade deal that benefits the country at least as much as the other party?

Persistent and Obsessively :topic

 

[drsmith]

With 92.49% of the votes counted, it's tight for that last spot.

Party Transfer Total Votes % Votes Quotas
Liberal +13,899 141,695 14.34% 1.0035
Australian Labor Party +392 140,694 14.23% 0.9964

http://www.abc.net.au/news/wa-senate-2014/detail/

With 97% of first preferences counted the ABC now shows the numbers for the final senate seat as follows,

Party Transfer Total Votes % Votes Quotas
Liberal +13,862 143,248 14.40% 1.0080
Australian Labor Party +393 140,950 14.17% 0.9919

Encouraging news for the Libs but it has jumped around a bit with the difference in votes falling as low as around 400 yesterday evening.

 

[Knobby22]

Distribution of preferences doesn't start to occur till the 22nd April.
That last seat could go anywhere.

 

[drsmith]

Distribution of preferences doesn't start to occur till the 22nd April.
That last seat could go anywhere.

It could but the Libs prospect for that final seat improve as first preference from postal votes are being counted.

Meanwhile, Joe Bullock's supporters from before the Senate re-election want to be very careful, otherwise Labor might find itself with no Senate seats from this election.

The left-wing union which helped parachute Mr Bullock into Labor's number one spot on the West Australian Senate ticket is now calling on the controversial union leader to quit, saying he is unfit to represent the party.

United Voice says it regrets helping to get Mr Bullock onto the ballot, after details emerged of a speech he gave in November last year.

It's no surprise that federal Labor is trying di distance itself from the above,

A spokesperson for Opposition Leader Bill Shorten backed Mr Bullock.

"Joe Bullock was pre-selected by the WA branch and was voted into the Senate by Western Australians on 5 April," the spokesperson said in a statement.

"Joe Bullock has spent the last 30 years of his life standing up for low paid workers and he’ll stand up for them and Western Australian as a Senator."

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-...bullock-to-relinquish-senate-position/5381410

 

[noco]

It could but the Libs prospect for that final seat improve as first preference from postal votes are being counted.

Meanwhile, Joe Bullock's supporters from before the Senate re-election want to be very careful, otherwise Labor might find itself with no Senate seats from this election.



It's no surprise that federal Labor is trying di distance itself from the above,



http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-...bullock-to-relinquish-senate-position/5381410

Yes Doc, if Bullock decided to resign under pressure from his party, there is nothing to stop the Western Australian from appointing an independent senator who may be sympathetic to the Coalition.

Whilst I am aware it is traditional to appoint a new senator from within the same party, it is not mandatory to do so.

It was done in Queensland in 1975 which I believe, in the end, brought about the downfall of Gough Whitlam.

 

[drsmith]

The Greens have been smashed with the postals while the Libs have gained ground.

The ABC calculator now has a lead of about 7000 to the Libs in the race for the final seat. The ABC's Antony Green effectively called it last night, well before the upcoming distribution of individual below the line preferences.

(Thursday 10 April, 10pm - It is clear the Liberals will win the last seat. Postal votes continue the trend of the Liberal Party doing very well. Labor is holding its own on postal votes, but Palmer United is not and the Green vote is slipping badly. The Greens will still easily poll above one quota, but Labor's chances of election required the Greens to have the surplus they had on Saturday night, not the diminishing surplus of recent days.)

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/

Tonight's ABC calculations,

Party Transfer Total Votes % Votes Quotas
Liberal +14,496 154,614 14.62% 1.0231
Australian Labor Party +415 147,618 13.95% 0.9768

99.77% of polling places have counted first preferences (AEC).

 

[drsmith]

The ABC calculator now has a lead of about 11000 to the Libs in the race for the final seat with 100.00% of polling places having counted first preferences (AEC). I note however that updates to first preference numbers are still occurring with flow through to the calculations below. Below are the numbers just after 8am WST,

Party Transfer Total Votes % Votes Quotas
Liberal +15,183 162,519 14.80% 1.0361
Australian Labor Party +440 151,163 13.77% 0.9637

Antony Green 10pm Friday,

It's clear the Liberal Party will win the final seat so I will end this manual update post.

 

[drsmith]

I note however that updates to first preference numbers are still occurring with flow through to the calculations below.

The lead to the Libs for the final seat from the ABC calculator has now blown out beyond 13,000 and there's now only 0.01% difference in the first preference swing against between the Libs and Labor.

 

[Bintang]

The lead to the Libs for the final seat from the ABC calculator has now blown out beyond 13,000 and there's now only 0.01% difference in the first preference swing against between the Libs and Labor.

So after all the fiasco and money spent nothing is changed post the Oct 2013 recount except for one seat having switched from the Oz Sports party to PUP:

View attachment WA Senate Results.tiff

And the real winner out of all of this is Big Clive. Just shows what you can do with money. But on the other hand money is not Big Clive's only advantage. Even if he was the only member of PUP elected to parliament he would still have to occupy two seats in the house.

View attachment Big Clive.tiff

 

[drsmith]

And the real winner out of all of this is Big Clive. Just shows what you can do with money. But on the other hand money is not Big Clive's only advantage. Even if he was the only member of PUP elected to parliament he would still have to occupy two seats in the house.

I would have said 5 provided he can keep the 4 pussycats on his substantive lap from going feral.

I didn't watch it but one of Clive's senator elects was on Q&A last night.