The transition to Futures trading

[CanOz]

I don't trade the DAX but if that setup was on the FTSE I'd take it 10/10 times!
Entry 70ish, stop 80.

What is the dollar P/L per tick/point with the DAX?

I really don't see how this is a setup If it wasn't for the news induced spike down, the market could have continued grinding up indefinitely. That's the thing about hindsight analysis, it doesn't account for the analysis that needs to take place in real time. What if the news was positive for the index, would that have looked like a good trade? I know it looks tempting but i don't think news spikes should be considered plays.

BTW, some of these news spikes and can trap allot of traders, level where their stops could be can sometime provide some interesting action, after the event.

 

[pavilion103]

Nothing at all to do with news.
Nothing at all to do with hindsight.
This is a setup in my playbook.
At resistance.
3 or 4 bearish bars.
Low risk entry (relative wise)

 

[pavilion103]

Btw I'm saying this is a setup for me when there is NO news.

I wouldn't take it when news is coming out.

 

[CanOz]

Well I'm tipping a directional day today, its been a while now....a move in either direction should clear out a few stops....with NFP later, it may not be the morning session in which this happens...

 

[pavilion103]

Short 63.
Unconventional.
I'll post later.
Felt it so strong.

 

[pavilion103]

Could have taken 20 points at last nights support. Holding at BE

 

[CanOz]

Short 63.
Unconventional.
I'll post later.
Felt it so strong.

Shoot rudy, wasn't that the low???

oops that was the DAX.

 

[pavilion103]

You mean I should take profit?

 

[CanOz]

You mean I should take profit?

lol...no no, i looked up at my screen over my main screen and saw the big candle and the low was 63....after i posted i realized it was the DAX, 9463. I thought you'd sold the low. Then i realized i had my DAX 60m chart maximized over the FTSE chart...

 

[pavilion103]

Haha no.
Risky entry but only 5 points.
If I had 2 I would have taken one off at 25 point profit.
Couldn't take 2 in that spot.

Got near the high.
Looks bearish.
In thinking the daily isn't too strong.
I'll hold.
Heading out.

 

[CanOz]

Haha no.
Risky entry but only 5 points.
If I had 2 I would have taken one off at 25 point profit.
Couldn't take 2 in that spot.

Got near the high.
Looks bearish.
In thinking the daily isn't too strong.
I'll hold.
Heading out.

I'm thinking we put in one of those hockey sticks, big drop followed by a grind lower....

 

[pavilion103]

Target 6700.
If it breaks here we look good.

 

[CanOz]

Well the measured move for the range breaking on the DAX is 9400, whether we get there or not though...

 

[CanOz]

I'm thinking we put in one of those hockey sticks, big drop followed by a grind lower....

The Hockey Stick pattern....

 

[CanOz]

The Hockey Stick pattern....

How to execute the hockey stick pattern

 

[pavilion103]

Not really sure what to make of this one.
It got up 38 points ( never would have taken profit there).

Stopped BE.

Obvious trail was 49. Didn't want to take it though.
Maybe I didn't respect a 12 point win.
Maybe I had a short bias and I didn't red the market.

Not upset.
Probably should have taken more given the small range days.
All good

 

[CanOz]

Not really sure what to make of this one.
It got up 38 points ( never would have taken profit there).

Stopped BE.

Obvious trail was 49. Didn't want to take it though.
Maybe I didn't respect a 12 point win.
Maybe I had a short bias and I didn't red the market.

Not upset.
Probably should have taken more given the small range days.
All good

The current 14 day ATR of the FTSE is 76. It had put in 51 from high to low today, 6700 wasn't unreasonable but by looking out for a bottoming pattern, might have saved you some profit. Thats not to say it won't get there, but indices don't trend really well.

 

[pavilion103]

Darn it. It got to 6700.

Not disappointed with my move.

One of those nights where I was out and about so couldn't check 100 times.

Wish it didn't come back!!!

 

[Lone Wolf]

FWIW I didnt make any money tonight either, missed the short Pav took.

I think the 69.5 would have been marginal, if it had settled for a clear flag type pattern id be more inclined to take it but I'm the same as you where if I miss the entry @ 80 its hard to find a sell 12 points lower.

There were a couple days this week where I stuffed up the ideal entry, then sat on the side and watched as it headed in one direction for the rest of the night. So I was wondering if it might be better to take a risk controlled late entry, rather than to sit on the side and miss the whole move.

Another way to look at it might be, would you make more, or less money if you tried to pyramid into the move? On a trend day you'd make more by adding to your position at minor pullbacks, but on a range day you'll just give back your open profits.

Pav is trading very well lately, his ability to trust his set up / analysis and then just leave it is what i admire most fwiw.

For me, confidence comes with experiencing success. I haven't been doing this long enough, or successfully enough to have confidence in my entries. Some days I notice that I saw the same entries as Pav did, but he wins where I lose because I have no confidence in my decision and I hesitate/bail.

 

[pavilion103]

Don't worry about getting a late entry. Focus on getting better at getting the first entry.
Maybe if you think it's a really really obvious top/bottom. But even then don't make some makeshift stop that can easily get taken out on a pullback because it isn't the best one.
I'd say just focus on hammering your setups!


I agree with your assessment of me.
I have no major psychological ability.
I have simply seen these setups over and over again go for 30,40,50,60 points.
Risking 6 seems like nothing.
Most times worst case scenario is BE.
Sometimes 6 points.
If you truly know what works and you feel it, it isn't difficult psychologically to execute it.