The future of Australian property prices

[Glen48]

Kirk Douglas house prices are on the way down FULL STOP
It may not happen over night but it will happen.

 

[young-gun]

Yes its all a big conspiracy theory its funny when prices were down younggun and friends were more than happy to quote the index now they are up its a sham hear we go again.

For starters I have never quoted that sham index, ever.

Secondly, the year on year figures are still down substantially, it would be in my best interest to push the credibility of it, I will do no such thing.

Ive seen young-gun quote uneployment figures to support his agrument then the minute unemployment is down its no longer relavant.

I don't recall ever in any of my posts quoting abs unemployment figures to support any argument. Please feel free to quote me where I did, and again I will accept that I was wrong. Of course unemployment is relevant.

However:

Sorry to burst another of your bubbles
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/201...RSS_DAILY_MAILCHIMP_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email

So now even ABS themselves are saying they can't get it right, or haven't. Would love to hear your thoughts.

you guys need to get some consistancy in your argument i hate to think what thread followers must be thinking of you guys.

are you really 22? bearish before you could speak?

You have been bearish on property for 20 years (since before you could speak)

Yes.... I am the one who should be worried about what others think of me....

Talk about a bad case of denial. prices depressed just as you wished and you still cant make a move doubt you will ever be able to pull the trigger your always gonna find a reason not to no matter how irrational.

Now that I have completely torn everything you said apart in glorious fashion, I think we can all simply disregard the above as sparticus nonsense.

 

[satanoperca]

Wonder what all those Melbournian vendors are thinking after the block, how come my place cannot sell.

Have a look at stock on the market in Melbourne, incredibly high and it is only going to get worse after a great month of building approvals for May, mainly apartments.

http://sqmresearch.com.au/graph_stock_on_market.php?region=vic%3A%3AMelbourne&type=c&t=1

So we have had interest rate cuts ontop of the ending of many FHBG throughout the country, low unemployment, great GDP growth figures, concerning low credit growth and what do have with property prices, nothing.

Must be a bottom forming, a really big bottom. lol

 

[im sparticus]

For starters I have never quoted that sham index, ever.

Secondly, the year on year figures are still down substantially, it would be in my best interest to push the credibility of it, I will do no such thing.



I don't recall ever in any of my posts quoting abs unemployment figures to support any argument. Please feel free to quote me where I did, and again I will accept that I was wrong. Of course unemployment is relevant.

However:

Sorry to burst another of your bubbles
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/201...RSS_DAILY_MAILCHIMP_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email

So now even ABS themselves are saying they can't get it right, or haven't. Would love to hear your thoughts.





Yes.... I am the one who should be worried about what others think of me....



Now that I have completely torn everything you said apart in glorious fashion, I think we can all simply disregard the above as sparticus nonsense.

Well put lol. I would never quote that index....but yoy its still down pfft. i dont believe unemployment is relevant but look the figures are wrong and it now supports my argument. man i didnt need to dig up any quotes you have managed to prove my point in one post your a real peace of work young-gun how do you do that magic that you do?

 

[young-gun]

Well put lol. I would never quote that index....but yoy its still down pfft. i dont believe unemployment is relevant but look the figures are wrong and it now supports my argument. man i didnt need to dig up any quotes you have managed to prove my point in one post your a real peace of work young-gun how do you do that magic that you do?

1. I didn't quote the index directly. I simply stated it was down.
2. I think you will find I said "Of course unemployment IS relevant." Perhaps actually read posts before you continue to make a fool of yourself. Unemployment is not the only thing that affects the re market though. I'm sure you are aware of that.

 

[im sparticus]

since when did we start paying attention to job figures anyway? they are almost as useless as the US figures. id say all those part timers are now working at dominos, i think they are doing pretty well.

Keep it up this is fun.

When the numbers are swayed in your favour your happy to point it out and when they arnt the figures are rigged sham conspiracy against you there is no more perfect example of denial you did it again in your last post do you even understand what you rwight... i didnt quote it exactly just pointed out it was down wtf?? you used it to validate your argument regardless of weather you quoted its exact figures or not dont kid yourself, what a joke!

 

[satanoperca]

and the MSM finally are catching up with

http://www.theage.com.au/business/property/record-number-of-houses-for-sale-in-melbourne-20120704-21guk.html

Record number of houses for sale in Melbourne

In June, Melbourne’s residential listings grew at a monthly rate of 6.1 per cent - almost four times the national average - and recorded a yearly jump of 27.7 per cent, more than 27 times Sydney’s annual growth of 1 per cent.

and the best part :-

Permits granted to build or renovate homes soared 27.3 per cent in May from the prior month after the central bank cut interest rates, a report this week showed.

lets help that supply increase by decreasing IR's and to ring out the last FHB with the ending of the FHBG.

Give it a year or so and we really will know the true state of property in Melbourne.

It is alright I am, Melbourne cannot drag down you growth.

Cheers

 

[young-gun]

Keep it up this is fun.

When the numbers are swayed in your favour your happy to point it out and when they arnt the figures are rigged sham conspiracy against you there is no more perfect example of denial you did it again in your last post do you even understand what you rwight... i didnt quote it exactly just pointed out it was down wtf?? you used it to validate your argument regardless of weather you quoted its exact figures or not dont kid yourself, what a joke!

*sigh*

So in that quote I never said unemployment is useless I said the figures are useless. Actual unemployment and the figures the abs release are two completely different things. Hence my quote that the figures are useless. The true rate of unemployment is a factor to house prices. However when it decreases, I believe this will simply hold prices steady. When it increases, I believe it will cause prices to fall. No doubt youll throw your hands in the air over that atatement as you will find that hard to comprehend, so once I get off my phone I'll explain it to you.

For the last time, I have never quoted your sham index. Yes I noted it was down, purely to point out that it would be in my best interest to push the credibility of it. Not once have I ever referenced it to argue which way prices are going. If you spent less time making a fool of yourself trying to discredit everyone else on the forum, and more time producing valid arguments and reasoning, you may be able to have a half decent back and forth.

 

[young-gun]

and the MSM finally are catching up with

http://www.theage.com.au/business/property/record-number-of-houses-for-sale-in-melbourne-20120704-21guk.html





and the best part :-



lets help that supply increase by decreasing IR's and to ring out the last FHB with the ending of the FHBG.

Give it a year or so and we really will know the true state of property in Melbourne.

It is alright I am, Melbourne cannot drag down you growth.

Cheers

I read this morning(in the Australian I think) that council approvals for dwellings were at record highs.

 

[Judd]

Fascinating that people are fascinated by the price of a house. Then I don't care as I only have one (mine) and I don't give a rats what it is supposed to be worth.

My kids will find out once I am dead or shuffled off to a nursing home. In the meantime, I'll continue to enjoy its utilitarian value.

 

[explod]

Fascinating that people are fascinated by the price of a house. Then I don't care as I only have one (mine) and I don't give a rats what it is supposed to be worth.

My kids will find out once I am dead or shuffled off to a nursing home. In the meantime, I'll continue to enjoy its utilitarian value.

Good point.

Most posters are either desperately concerned at their investment properties or gloating and waiting for the bottom.

A home is a man's/woman's Castle.

 

[im sparticus]

*sigh*

So in that quote I never said unemployment is useless I said the figures are useless. Actual unemployment and the figures the abs release are two completely different things. Hence my quote that the figures are useless. The true rate of unemployment is a factor to house prices. However when it decreases, I believe this will simply hold prices steady. When it increases, I believe it will cause prices to fall. No doubt youll throw your hands in the air over that atatement as you will find that hard to comprehend, so once I get off my phone I'll explain it to you.

For the last time, I have never quoted your sham index. Yes I noted it was down, purely to point out that it would be in my best interest to push the credibility of it. Not once have I ever referenced it to argue which way prices are going. If you spent less time making a fool of yourself trying to discredit everyone else on the forum, and more time producing valid arguments and reasoning, you may be able to have a half decent
back and forth.

How can one possibabily produce valid argument when every instrament of measurement to you is inaccurate a sham or conspiracy against you especially when it does not conform to your logic.

 

[im sparticus]

You know even scm believed the rpdata daily index was one of the best and most accurate weve had!

 

[Tink]

No I wouldnt say its a stupid idea young gun, that is up to you, only you know your financial situation, though, I would be going for a bigger block rather than a bigger house, thats my view.
I think while you are young, both working, no kids is a good time but this - I am young, you want to live it up saga - gets that look from me.
Weren't we all young?
We all had choices.

What do you mean, out with the old, in with the new?
People have to live somewhere, you either rent or pay mortgage, thats it.
Not everyone wants their own home and thats fine, but when I hear people whingeing they cant pay the rent, well, we didnt travel and throw money up on the wall, we made sacrifices.

Great post Judd.
I would extend that to investments too, if they are in a positive, who cares.

 

[Judd]

Yeah. My approach has caused a little bit of disharmony in the past. Was at a social evening and this bloke was banging on about how much he owns and the price of his property. During one of his infrequent pauses for breath I remarked that it was all very interesting but irrelevant. When asked why I responded that I already owned my own home and had no intention of buying his so why would I care what he had. Totally destroyed the evening but it was worth it. The boring little twerp.

 

[im sparticus]

Interesting but irrelevant in a social setting? Sounds like someone had a bad case of house price envy that night.
i have never found anyone to be interesting and a boring little twerp all at once. usually the boring little twerp is the bitter guy at the end of the table not contributing to the conversation. or saying things like why is everyone discussing house prices on a house price thread cant they see how stupid it is. the truth is everyone is free to discuss whatever it is they feel like discussing whenever they feel like discussing it. if it is not your cup of tea simply remove yourself from the conversation. but to remove the conversation you have no right if you cant understand why people do what they do deal with it.

 

[im sparticus]

Another hypothetical. The pricing of assets.

Lets say you had an asset that could produce $500 per week. and lets say said asset would appreciate in value by the same value as inflation and lets say the $500pw would also appreciate by the current rate of inflation and lets say from now until the end of time inflation would run at 3%pa. lets say also current interest rates for lending over said asset were 5%pa

what value would you put on set asset. ie what price as both a buyer and seller would you be happy to buy and sell at?

 

[prawn_86]

Another hypothetical. The pricing of assets.

Lets say you had an asset that could produce $500 per week. and lets say said asset would appreciate in value by the same value as inflation and lets say the $500pw would also appreciate by the current rate of inflation and lets say from now until the end of time inflation would run at 3%pa. lets say also current interest rates for lending over said asset were 5%pa

what value would you put on set asset. ie what price as both a buyer and seller would you be happy to buy and sell at?

A lot of stocks are conservatively valued at 10x earnings, private businesses a lot less. So in a hypothetical situation like this, where growth isn't going to outpace inflation then $260k would be a very rough guide of fair value imo. IR shouldn't need to come into a basic, income based, valuation

 

[im sparticus]

A lot of stocks are conservatively valued at 10x earnings, private businesses a lot less. So in a hypothetical situation like this, where growth isn't going to outpace inflation then $260k would be a very rough guide of fair value imo. IR shouldn't need to come into a basic, income based, valuation

Bussiness is carring alot more risk both to earnings and capitial hence higher vals. me i wouldnt sell my growth asset to anyone that could borrow the money and be positively geared to the tune of x$$ and increasibg at a rate of 3% both in income and value. If you know what i mean i dont think you will have any trouble selling your hypothetical though. ok if one that ran par with inflation was worth 260K what would on that just maintained vaue be worth...and one that outpaced inflation by 3%. I do believe the cost of finance is important in vals btw.

 

[prawn_86]

Bussiness is carring alot more risk both to earnings and capitial hence higher vals. me i wouldnt sell my growth asset to anyone that could borrow the money and be positively geared to the tune of x$$ and increasibg at a rate of 3% both in income and value. If you know what i mean i dont think you will have any trouble selling your hypothetical though. ok if one that ran par with inflation was worth 260K what would on that just maintained vaue be worth...and one that outpaced inflation by 3%. I do believe the cost of finance is important in vals btw.

I don't understand much in that post. Very hard to read.

Why would anyone buy a business that is losing money unless they think there is a potential for a quick turnaround? Hence why things should be valued (basically) on a multiple of earnings.