The future of Australian property prices

[young-gun]

Getting $460 1brd 12km direct line from city turned over tennants mid dec2011 and still had somone in 3 days latter 6 month lease . As always in life you get what you pay for i guess.

So youngung are you in the long lease = high demand camp ala satan ¿ 24 month should spell some pretty high demand according to him

without getting involved in your little back and forth there was 5 applicants on the first day this house went back on the rental market. so i guess that would equate to high demand? I'm unsure as to exactly what constitutes as high. I personally think it is quite cheap, so perhaps that's why so many were interested in it.

We were the first applicants to get our form in and not a blemish on either of our names so we got it.

 

[im sparticus]

without getting involved in your little back and forth there was 5 applicants on the first day this house went back on the rental market. so i guess that would equate to high demand? I'm unsure as to exactly what constitutes as high. I personally think it is quite cheap, so perhaps that's why so many were interested in it.

We were the first applicants to get our form in and not a blemish on either of our names so we got it.

you you are right satan is wrong demand for rentals overall is currently high and i agree

 

[explod]

you you are right satan is wrong demand for rentals overall is currently high and i agree

Rubbish, rental signs appearing all over the place here and talking to my Agent he says rents are falling. Used to only take a week or two here to re let, now its 6 weeks if you can get them. Sometimes now no one is turning up for open for inspections either

And in my work with a charity service there is big demand for single beds in particular as the kids are moving back in with parents. This of course is only in the last six months so may take a bit longer for it to hit the official figures.

You must be living in dreamland somewhere.

Anyhow you all tend to be a bit off topic, its about property prices and apart from a few select spots its all down hill at the moment.

 

[im sparticus]

Let us know when you negotiate a rental decrease on your lease renewal. anyone..........bueller...
...... bueller

 

[young-gun]

you you are right satan is wrong demand for rentals overall is currently high and i agree

Keeping in mind I am only one case. As I said the property I am in is relatively cheap for the area. If supply and demand is the game then by rights the land-lord should have jacked up the price given the amount of interest generated. Seeing as how there was high demand and the price remained low, what does that say?? That demand doesn't matter??

Anyway rent prices aren't really something that bother me. If i owned a house, now there's something to worry about

 

[young-gun]

Anyhow you all tend to be a bit off topic, its about property prices and apart from a few select spots its all down hill at the moment.

Don't jump the gun explod. Sparticus will return armed with a few positive figures for today from the rpdata daily index to shoot you down in flames..... just don't look at the year to date figures

 

[young-gun]

Let us know when you negotiate a rental decrease on your lease renewal. anyone..........bueller...
...... bueller

Ill give it a red hot go, and let you know in January.

 

[explod]

Let us know when you negotiate a rental decrease on your lease renewal. anyone..........bueller...
...... bueller

A couple I know recently separated as they could not afford the rent any more on their pensions.

The wife now lives with her Daughter and the husband moved onto a small farm here on the Peninsular for a bungalow and drives a child to School a couple of days a week for a low rental.

You can have and twist all the figures you like, but the necessities of life are becoming dearer by the day, petrol, food, power, water etc., so the game is changing.

With the increasing job losses being reported daily this must kick in soon to the downside in my view. And unless something very dramatic occurs with the economy it looks like the years ahead are going to be nasty indeed for the property investor.

 

[Miss Hale]

Let us know when you negotiate a rental decrease on your lease renewal. anyone..........bueller...
...... bueller

It's obvious isn' it? If you get to the end of your lease and your landlord is not interested in dropping the rent (or wants to put it up) you give notice and move to a cheaper place. Having observed that rents had dropped over the past year, this is what we were thinking of doing at our last place but when the lease was nearing its end we were advised the landlord was selling. We found a new place that is better than the old one and about 8% cheaper.

 

[im sparticus]

Ill give it a red hot go, and let you know in January.

Bad time of the year to be negotiating decreases, just saying.

Syd and per yoy less than 2% down atm brisbane less than 5% and the white night of the bears mel now less than 7% definately looks like things are improving non have fallen enough to profitabily exit and reenter after cost. these losses look to be vanising as quick as they came. Anyone capitalise anyone bueller.......bueller!

 

[Julia]

You can have and twist all the figures you like, but the necessities of life are becoming dearer by the day, petrol, food, power, water etc., so the game is changing.

With the increasing job losses being reported daily this must kick in soon to the downside in my view. And unless something very dramatic occurs with the economy it looks like the years ahead are going to be nasty indeed for the property investor.

Agree. And this is before the carbon tax and additional electricity increases have kicked in.
Every week I look at the property for sale listings here (coastal SE Qld) and am really astonished at the rapidly falling asking prices. Way more than 20% over prices two years ago.

 

[young-gun]

Agree. And this is before the carbon tax and additional electricity increases have kicked in.
Every week I look at the property for sale listings here (coastal SE Qld) and am really astonished at the rapidly falling asking prices. Way more than 20% over prices two years ago.

A guy I know had a higher end property (worth just over 850k at the peak) on north side of Brisbane. Unfortunately had to sell due to divorce, went on the market for 790k, no one touched it, plenty of inspections though. dropped to 750k, still nothing. It wasn't until he dropped it further, and then someone came in with a near offer, that he sold at about 710 I think. 140k peak to sell price?

I understand these type of properties are usually hit harder and faster by a crash, but it's a hell of a lot of money. Fortunately housing has increased so dramatically people in this situation are usually ahead by several hundred anyway.

 

[moXJO]

A couple I know recently separated as they could not afford the rent any more on their pensions.

The wife now lives with her Daughter and the husband moved onto a small farm here on the Peninsular for a bungalow and drives a child to School a couple of days a week for a low rental.

You can have and twist all the figures you like, but the necessities of life are becoming dearer by the day, petrol, food, power, water etc., so the game is changing.

With the increasing job losses being reported daily this must kick in soon to the downside in my view. And unless something very dramatic occurs with the economy it looks like the years ahead are going to be nasty indeed for the property investor.

from the census

But perhaps the most astonishing figure to come out of the latest census results was a near 50 per cent jump in rents since the 2006 census.
Advertisement: Story continues below
Between 2006 and last year, the median weekly household rent jumped 49 per cent from $191 to $285. That's an annual rate of 8 per cent-plus a year across the entire country, far outstripping annual growth in median household incomes of about 3.5 per cent.

here is some more stats

The median monthly mortgage repayment in Australia was $1,800. For 9.9% of households, their mortgage repayment was more than 30.0% of their income.

In Australia, the median weekly rent was $285. For 10.4% of households, their rent was more than 30.0% of their income.

Of occupied private dwellings in Australia, 32.1% were owned outright, 34.9% were owned with a mortgage and 29.6% were rented.

http://www.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2011/quickstat/0

More 'for lease' signs are generally about this time of year and around Christmas.

so the game is changing

yes it is and not just for housing, which is why you use the stats to hit your target market. There are a lot of cheap options to make renters want to live in your house.

 

[Glen48]

We built a house in 98 the ex decide she wasn't good enough to live in the place due to a low self esteem problem, though having the Air con in the main bedroom was over the top so slept outside while the rest of the family slept in the Air con on hot nights, so SHE decided on a divorce place owed us 330 ended up selling for 290 after the bubble it went to $870.
SHE didn't wanted it sold out of spite because my solicitor was picking on her.
We got about $ 190 back which she got as settlement.

 

[im sparticus]

We built a house in 98 the ex decide she wasn't good enough to live in the place due to a low self esteem problem, though having the Air con in the main bedroom was over the top so slept outside while the rest of the family slept in the Air con on hot nights, so SHE decided on a divorce place owed us 330 ended up selling for 290 after the bubble it went to $870.
SHE didn't wanted it sold out of spite because my solicitor was picking on her.
We got about $ 190 back which she got as settlement.

Rough story. thats enough to make even myself hate housing.

 

[im sparticus]

from the census



here is some more stats

The median monthly mortgage repayment in Australia was $1,800. For 9.9% of households, their mortgage repayment was more than 30.0% of their income.

In Australia, the median weekly rent was $285. For 10.4% of households, their rent was more than 30.0% of their income.

Of occupied private dwellings in Australia, 32.1% were owned outright, 34.9% were owned with a mortgage and 29.6% were rented.

http://www.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2011/quickstat/0

More 'for lease' signs are generally about this time of year and around Christmas.


yes it is and not just for housing, which is why you use the stats to hit your target market. There are a lot of cheap options to make renters want to live in your house.

Those stats are very similar to the experiance i have posted since being a landlord since 2005. I wonder why every tennant in this thread has had a much different experiance...... guess theyve got an agenda to push??? But when not one of them have had a similar experiance to the census results you do have to wonder!

 

[young-gun]

Those stats are very similar to the experiance i have posted since being a landlord since 2005. I wonder why every tennant in this thread has had a much different experiance...... guess theyve got an agenda to push??? But when not one of them have had a similar experiance to the census results you do have to wonder!

If i owned property, I would pretend it wasn't going to crash also.

 

[Miss Hale]

Those stats are very similar to the experiance i have posted since being a landlord since 2005. I wonder why every tennant in this thread has had a much different experiance...... guess theyve got an agenda to push??? But when not one of them have had a similar experiance to the census results you do have to wonder!

Easily explained in my case. We have been renting for only a little over a year. The decreases I am seeing are happening now. I don't have an agenda to push, just relating my experiences. I have a preference to buy but not at current prices so we have our money in the bank and are happy renting for now because we feel it's a better option financially.

But perhaps the most astonishing figure to come out of the latest census results was a near 50 per cent jump in rents since the 2006 census.
Advertisement: Story continues below
Between 2006 and last year, the median weekly household rent jumped 49 per cent from $191 to $285. That's an annual rate of 8 per cent-plus a year across the entire country, far outstripping annual growth in median household incomes of about 3.5 per cent.

I don't dispute this at all. When we returned to Melbourne a year ago I was shocked at the price of rentals, they had dramatically incresed since last time I rented both in $ terms and as a percentage of income. I was even more shocked at what it would cost us in mortgage repayments to buy however, which was easily double what it would cost to rent. So by that comparison it was/is cheaper to rent. Rents are not cheap per se but cheaper than mortgage repayments and dropping. So I would agree with young-gun, it's cheap to rent at the moment (considering the alternative).

 

[im sparticus]

Easily explained in my case. We have been renting for only a little over a year. The decreases I am seeing are happening now.



I don't dispute this at all. When we returned to Melbourne a year ago I was shocked at the price of rentals, they had dramatically incresed since last time I rented both in $ terms and as a percentage of income. I was even more shocked at what it would cost us in mortgage repayments to buy however, which was easily double what it would cost to rent. So by that comparison it was/is cheaper to rent. Rents are not cheap per se but cheaper than mortgage repayments and dropping. So I would agree with young-gun, it's cheap to rent at the moment (considering the alternative).

It has always been cheaper to rent than buy initially. as is the pricing of anything that has projected growth. Would be interesting to have a tally on your death bed ie rent vs buy in your life time you wont have the answer just yet but everone who is now gone that has come before you does and its not in favour of renting (over all you will pay a premium for the flexability that renting affords. in a perfect world ofcourse to think things should be priced otherwise is well). if you think you are going to nail the bottom and reenter triumphant dont kid yourself and remember you are also carrying the losses of having not baught in the past. best of luck but the odds are against you. me i always take the high probability trade and while bad beats do happen thinking otherwise is a suckers path to getting fleeced

 

[young-gun]

It has always been cheaper to rent than buy initially. as is the pricing of anything that has projected growth. Would be interesting to have a tally on your death bed ie rent vs buy in your life time you wont have the answer just yet but everone who is now gone that has come before you does and its not in favour of renting

You are seriously kidding yourself. You have seen a few good years of property and think that it's guaranteed to continue that way. You are either trolling, incredibly naive, or have only ever researched evidence that supports prices climbing. I hope it's not the last given how much you crap on about confirmation bias.

You need to dig a lot deeper and go further back in history, hopefully you will eventually realise property isn't all it's cracked up to be. I'm guessing you won't.

There is 2 ways the market is going from here.

1. A crash of epic proportions as seen in a large majority of developed nations.
2. A slow burn, where prices remain stagnant for decades until wages catch up, and all debt has been deleveraged.

There simply isn't room for growth in house prices anymore, not only do people not want to pay these prices, they simply can't afford to. Those that can afford to have now been sucked into the market with grants, and squeezed of every cent to keep prices artificially inflated (and i really feel for them) and now there is now one left.

Sorry sparticus, but all the money has gone champ, no one coming through can pay your crazy asking prices without putting there nuts on a chopping block. Credit growth is weak, unemployment will no doubt be rising in the next figures. Game over.