The future of Australian property prices

[numbercruncher]

Now i get why you think the sky is falling down. 4% = crash total wipe out,and you guys call yourself realists. More like hanging on to every bit of bad news that supports your theory and extending its truth as far as you can confirmation biasists! all the best scm calls the exit how many of you realists made money on last nights pop? oh your still holding since $1950
. Even scm wont buy gold now....apparently its manipulated lol have fun with your money under your mattress.

haha - Sky isnt falling down my excitable friend - all is good in lala land - peaches and cream as one of the permabulls used to say ....

Simply pointing out that your hypothetical levergaged Gold short bet got smoked - we didnt need all the other insecure drivel.

Have a smokn' Saturday -

PS. any RE news so we can get back on track ?

 

[numbercruncher]

Its funny when rpdata was reporting positive results it was rigged now its reporting negative results and they gooble it up hook line and sinker.

Its still a rigged Template -

Its now impossible to hide that things are falling - its just the depth of the falls that are smudged now -

What are you worried about your supposedly a RE investor price falls should be good for you in the long term ? just imagine all those bargains youll get - youll eventually be Mr Big of RE land if you pounce at the right time ...

 

[im sparticus]

Enough heckling from thr peanut gallery number time for you to lay some cards on the table?

 

[im sparticus]

Alot gets said about the poor yeilds of re when comparing to other investments (ie cash etc) . Comparing yeilds of re to whatever is as naive as ranking companies by there pe ratio. With the lower prices increasing yeild and lower holding cost (we arnt far off rents being more than owning) through interest rates coupled with the fact that most of the vultures are on the sidelines waiting to pounce everyone is bearish as f ck. the bottom is near may already be here (maybe not melbourne but it isnt the only place in oz dispite the focus of the bears) while the magician is waving his hand over there were pull the rabbits out of hats over there. prepare to be astonised.....again!

 

[Glen48]

the rabbits out of hats over there. prepare to be astonised.....again!

After reading that I am already...

 

[im sparticus]

Property has gone to zero the peanut gallery is still feeling bearish.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

the bottom is near may already be here (maybe not melbourne but it isnt the only place in oz dispite the focus of the bears) while the magician is waving his hand over there were pull the rabbits out of hats over there.

The bottom you say?? What are you buying?

prepare to be astonised.....again!

The only way I'd be astonished is if the Gov was to start up another home buying subsidy scheme to prop up property investors, again! But as we all know, the Gov is broke so that's not going to happen! This time you're on your own!

Sell now while you can - GFC part 2 is only months away, if not already started.....

 

[im sparticus]

The bottom you say?? What are you buying?



The only way I'd be astonished is if the Gov was to start up another home buying subsidy scheme to prop up property investors, again!

Sell now while you can - GFC part 2 is only months away, if not already started.....

Dow sp and asx are miles off there gfc lowes gold way off its highs rba with fully loaded gun, double dip recessions rearly if ever test them this is no different. News couldnt be worse the market doesnt give a f ck. everyone knows the possibilities all priced in macro is bs anyway. one last shake of the tree and where off.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Dow sp and asx are miles off there gfc lowes double dip recessions rearly if ever test them this is no different. News couldnt be worse the market doesnt give a f ck. everyone knows the possibilities all priced in macro is bs anyway. one last shake of the tree and where off.

Well no, nothing negative is 'priced in', if anything in the US at least, they are pricing for recovery, which is predicated on more money printing and debt.

'They' have prriced in a CHina soft laning also - looks like a hard one forming.

Australia will eventually have the recession it technically avoided very soon....

 

[Starcraftmazter]

. Even scm wont buy gold now....apparently its manipulated lol have fun with your money under your mattress.

I said I won't take trading/investment positions on gold, didn't say I won't buy physical.

Also, your gold short is dead. If it was a real position, you would have lost a lot of money you silly person.

Its funny when rpdata was reporting positive results it was rigged now its reporting negative results and they gooble it up hook line and sinker.

Nothing is rigged, RP Data has a statistical bias to the upside by 0.1% every month - this can be season by revisions done in the past. It further stopped using seasonal adjustments at a time it would look good for house prices - and now that we're entering winter the chickens will come home to roost. Your lack of knowledge and understanding of matters which you allegedly invest upon is astounding.

 

[im sparticus]

Its still a rigged Template -

Its now impossible to hide that things are falling - its just the depth of the falls that are smudged now -

Direct your post in the correct direction

 

[maffu]

I am very interested in how the media portray the property markets. I think the way the media sells the property investing market definitely has a real impact on prices. Confidence in the future price of a market can become a self fulfilling prophecy.

Last night on prime time Channel 10 news, I heard the headline 'Investors worry as Real Estate Prices drop rapidly' or something along those lines. Today the Most Viewed story on the Sydney Morning Herald website is 'Home prices extend national retreat'.

Home values fell the most in at least six years in May defying Reserve Bank efforts to spark a recovery in the nation's lacklustre housing market with interest rate cuts. Melbourne led declines.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/home-prices-extend-national-retreat-20120601-1zlm6.html#ixzz1wbaSIjqz

If these kind of headlines keep coming through in the mainstream media, we may see a bit of a change in the average property investors attitude.

I have also noticed in the last few weeks I am getting small glossy brochures trying to sell me new apartments around Botany Bay and surrounding inner city suburbs. They are all mentioning that stamp duty exemptions for property under $600,000 are ending at the end of June and that you need to BUY NOW! (I think this is a NSW only thing?)
I rarely ever received those in the past year, but now am receiving a few a week. I take it as a sign that the developers are finding it harder to shift the new apartments and need to spend a lot more in advertising to try and get the property sold, rather than it just selling itself as it has in prior years.

So with NSW having the FHBG gone at the end of last December, and the stamp duty concessions for property under 600k about to be taken away, it will be interesting to see if the low end property market is impacted in a big way.

 

[damien275x]

My uncle works for one of the medium to large size real estate agents. So I hear from him what's going on. The fact/truth is the market isn't flat like they're reporting, it's actually down. They have enormous internal pressure from the top to sell, sell, sell and have a high stock (+50% more since 3 years ago) People are quitting, burning out. All the perks have dried up, and a lot are leaving the industry. This is in Melbourne, though. Not sure about everywhere else. There are still booms in Perth/mining towns. He also said that the word they're all throwing around is "confidence" .. if they can restore confidence, prices will stabilize. So maybe they can but they are very fearful that market sentiment has already gone from bullish to bearish. I'd say it's still borderline but it's going to get bearish eventually, given all the defaulting dominoes at play.

And if anyone is skeptical about the figures and graphs they post online and in the newspapers, you'd be right. The sales and marketing division have internal meetings on how to best dress up bad numbers and present them in a positive light. It's not illegal, however, I would say It is unethical!! E.g- skewing graphs, posting figures and then "revising them down" in small print the following month. I have also heard about claims where they have banks going to auctions and buying homes at auctions that may end up otherwise being passed in. I'm pretty sure that's illegal. But how can you regulate it, really. I am sure you will see someone get caught doing it soon though. One of them is about to be audited, so it will be interesting, keep watching the headlines

If you think for yourself you should be fine. The sky isn't falling, but house prices are.

 

[MrBurns]

My uncle works for one of the medium to large size real estate agents. So I hear from him what's going on. The fact/truth is the market isn't flat like they're reporting, it's actually down. They have enormous internal pressure from the top to sell, sell, sell and have a high stock (+50% more since 3 years ago) People are quitting, burning out. All the perks have dried up, and a lot are leaving the industry. This is in Melbourne, though. Not sure about everywhere else. There are still booms in Perth/mining towns. He also said that the word they're all throwing around is "confidence" .. if they can restore confidence, prices will stabilize. So maybe they can but they are very fearful that market sentiment has already gone from bullish to bearish. I'd say it's still borderline but it's going to get bearish eventually, given all the defaulting dominoes at play.

And if anyone is skeptical about the figures and graphs they post online and in the newspapers, you'd be right. The sales and marketing division have internal meetings on how to best dress up bad numbers and present them in a positive light. It's not illegal, however, I would say It is unethical!! E.g- skewing graphs, posting figures and then "revising them down" in small print the following month. I have also heard about claims where they have banks going to auctions and buying homes at auctions that may end up otherwise being passed in. I'm pretty sure that's illegal. But how can you regulate it, really. I am sure you will see someone get caught doing it soon though. One of them is about to be audited, so it will be interesting, keep watching the headlines

If you think for yourself you should be fine. The sky isn't falling, but house prices are.

Excellent post Damien a lot of truth in there, I think it will only get worse but let's face it Australia is boom and bust, we havent had a bust in a while so it's overdue.
It's all about debt, people dont want to borrow any more, they've had enough and they're scared.

See what happened to the DOW on Friday, I just wish this crash would get a move on do we can all stop talking about it and speculating. There's no chance that it wont happen so I wish it would hurry up so we can sort things for the future.

 

[MrBurns]

The save edit button is not responding.

 

[Joe Blow]

The save edit button is not responding.

There was a major software upgrade last night and we are experiencing some issues. It should be sorted out soon, but in the meantime please proofread your posts.

 

[damien275x]

When people say getting worse I don't think it's getting worse. It's called a healthy correction. The market yields what it yields.. problem is the Government steps in and distorts it so there are huge winners and huge losers. Eventually people are only going to pay what they can afford though - I am not sure why property is seen as so different from any other asset class. I'm pretty sure nobody would be talking about petrol going up as good news, or if clothes, food, bills rising sharply as "good economic news" .. if we're spending more on these, we're spedning less on real productivity! That's a disaster!

If we see a decline, the smart property investors will buy more at low prices, and will have sufficient cash flow to do it. The dumb ones will be forced sellers, I'm talking about the bogans in the west who have "purchased" (borrowed staggering amounts) 1, 2, 3 houses! On single incomes. They can't keep repayments up, so it will be default, forced sale, low profit/no profit made on sale. Where is could get bad is if the banks have to eat some of the losses, which is not out of the question if the prices fall below what people borrowed to buy them!! Then **** will hit the fan, but it's not at that point... yet. We really want a slow deflation, so they decline say 30-50% in real (not nominal) terms over 15-20 years. Instead of all at once.

 

[young-gun]

Alot gets said about the poor yeilds of re when comparing to other investments (ie cash etc) . Comparing yeilds of re to whatever is as naive as ranking companies by there pe ratio. With the lower prices increasing yeild and lower holding cost (we arnt far off rents being more than owning) through interest rates coupled with the fact that most of the vultures are on the sidelines waiting to pounce everyone is bearish as f ck. the bottom is near may already be here (maybe not melbourne but it isnt the only place in oz dispite the focus of the bears) while the magician is waving his hand over there were pull the rabbits out of hats over there. prepare to be astonised.....again!

your views literally give me an un-easy feeling in my stomach. exactly what is it you're smoking at the moment?

 

[MrBurns]

There was a major software upgrade last night and we are experiencing some issues. It should be sorted out soon, but in the meantime please proofread your posts.

Oh damn do I have to ?

 

[trillionaire#1]

Well,we just sold our house here in adelaide for above advertised price in a couple of weeks flat.
Couldnt be more relieved.
There is just so much negativity out there,plus skyrocketing utility costs,job layoffs everywhere i look,
and i cant help but feel Australia is overdue for a more serious price correction in many property markets.
I may well be wrong but as our cooling off period has passed ,im sleeping like a kitten!
Now happily getting back to renting ,ok rental prices are high,but not worrying about your house value being
smashed about,not replacing hws,and faulty ducted A/C,i feel ive made the right decision.