The future of Australian property prices

[satanoperca]

Guess the sky isnt falling after all cheers for clearing that up

satan send my offer to your lawyers and see what they can draw up i stand by every word i posted

What is your maximum position size, no time to play games.

 

[jank]

Jayus, its like a penis waving competition here.

 

[prawn_86]

Yeh lets get back on topic please. If members want to sort out contracts, please do it via PM

 

[im sparticus]

Bit disappointed my post was deleted but the post it was in retaliation to was not. anywho for today 1-6-12 the values are as follows mel 571 sydney 626 brisbane 429 perth 551. Now whilst the perma bears have had the wind in there sales as of late im interested to see how we go from (no more hindsite trades please) here it is also worth noting this is not an accumulation index you will have to add yield to this (roughly 5%pa) its documented where the indices are posted to compare to gold i etc think its also important to note that these numbers though generated for today are really comming from events that happened quiet some time ago and not a reflection of whats happening right right now if you know what i mean.

Scm wanted melbourne short at 571 and i guess will be charge the dividends on the short sale (5%pa) position size is for the point of the exersize irrelevant but you can compare it to a median later on if you like whatever.

To balance the argument i will go short gold a the current spot of 1569. Scm calls the exit i close when he closes (sound like a fun game?? Nice and friendly like! just one rule on the exit if you do its because your no longer a bear and have become a bull.

 

[Agentm]

real clearance rates for melb last weekend..

Latest Sales

Saturday 26th & Sunday 27th May 2012

SALES RESULTS
S Sold at Auction: 309
SB Sold before Auction: 57
SA Sold after Auction: 0
Passed in: 280
Passed in on vendor's bid: 177
Clearance rate: 57%

TOTAL AUCTIONS

This week: 646
Postponed: 2
Withdrawn: 9
Auctions with no result: 10
PS Private Sales: 608
Total Volume (Auctions): $280.05mil
Total Volume (Private Sales): $285.4mil
Total Auctions Houses: 421
Clearance Rate: 58%
Median Price: $745,000
Total Value: $213,431,750
Total Auctions Flats/Apartments: 205
Clearance Rate: 55%
Median Price: $492,500
Total Value: $60,099,000
Total Auctions Vacant Land: 17
Clearance Rate: 41%
Median Price: $466,000
Total Value: $5,317,000


expect them to post the same 61% on sunday and wait for the friday late afternoon update as usual if you really want the accurate (if you believe it ) tally

melbourne prices are plunging

i saw that in elwood brighton and sandringham there was hardly a sale

the 7.7 mill in brighton went and one other as a sale b4

none in sandringham and one out 11 went in elwood

so no one likes the beach anymore!!

on an slide and escalating MoM

 

[young-gun]

you are the one who was offering, but mail me your details and I will have the contract drawn up, do you have the $60K to leave for a period of 3 years, as I will holding the short for some time.

Also what is your max position size, have a few people interested in taking up your offer.

Cheers

given that hes waiting for 2 years to buy his next brilliant property investment, i don't think 60k is floating around.

 

[young-gun]

Hope the prices stay down in vic until im ready to purchase in a year or two this is not qld or nsw reality though.

no need to worry spartacus! id say youll be looking at a 10-15% discount by that time. a super bargain.

 

[im sparticus]

no need to worry spartacus! id say youll be looking at a 10-15% discount by that time. a super bargain.

ive shared what im up to would you like to share your story, when did you start buying bullion and a more recent purchase?

 

[young-gun]

ive shared what im up to would you like to share your story, when did you start buying bullion and a more recent purchase?

i own very little gold, and have already built and sold my first house 18 months ago. I am currently pumping all my money into a business. i will buy property once it stops going down, which isn't now. im early twenties, so im sure even you can understand my accomplishments are limited at this current point in time. don't go viewing my lack of experience as a downfall, as your good experiences are your very downfall in seeing the coming crash. i can afford to buy another house, and would do so if I thought the time were right, but again, it isn't.

despite yourself, TS and tech pointing out there are opportunities, I don't believe there are as many for those just entering the market. i am still skeptical that even the opportunities they discuss will make any money, short or long term. given my knowledge is limited in commercial RE this may be what they are talking about. or maybe they can flip a few quick properties on some really cheap land they picked up and still turn a profit, who knows.

once the business is supporting itself I will get a little kitty and begin trading again.

anyway back on topic.

I read somewhere yesterday that residential building approvals are down almost 9% for april. But according to the bulls I guess that just means that supply is decreasing meaning prices are ready to sky rocket.

 

[Agentm]

nice post young gun.. i dont read these threads back much myself, but it looks like the usual case of peoples ego's getting the better of themselves. i saw a mod intervene a few posts back.. so its gettin ugly i guess..

dont feel intimidated into explaining yourself, but you have just done that.. so big ups from me for being pretty young and having a level head..

imho your point on the greater RE market not doing so well overshadows the few RE gurus success stories.. all markets turn, up and down,, been hearing for years from the same people here that this one is different, this bubble in australia is not like any other..

guess what???

its not the case..

bubbles are bubbles..

i have my capital in other sectors, i will invest in RE once the bubble is over.. may be fast or slow, but when its done, then i enter..

 

[im sparticus]

the funny thing with property corrections is when you go in to take advantage of them everything half decent gets pulled off the market and all that is left is the crap trading 10% lower than the quality stock you wanted to buy.

 

[Sean K]

the funny thing with property corrections is when you go in to take advantage of them everything half decent gets pulled off the market and all that is left is the crap trading 10% lower than the quality stock you wanted to buy.

And only the people who have to sell would be selling. RE is a much slower moving beast than the SM. Real risk is unemployment to the undercapitalised. Hope all the recent sackees have some room to move or find something fast! Having said that, unemployment still seems relatively low on the surface. Does a few thousand engineers going here and there really make a difference?

 

[Starcraftmazter]

Do it on tick. $1,000/1% move. No money down and seeing as you're so confident it's like cash in the bank for you.

ETA: I just thought of another benefit for you SCM, as it's considered gambling you won't have to pay tax!

Sounds perfect, I'm all up for it. Anyone wanting to make that bet, just PM me the contract, I'll do 6 and 12 months.

To balance the argument i will go short gold a the current spot of 1569. Scm calls the exit i close when he closes (sound like a fun game?? Nice and friendly like! just one rule on the exit if you do its because your no longer a bear and have become a bull.

I have no idea what you are talking about here. I also don't advocate taking trading positions in the highly manipulated market of gold, and will have nothing to do with any such position.

the funny thing with property corrections is when you go in to take advantage of them everything half decent gets pulled off the market and all that is left is the crap trading 10% lower than the quality stock you wanted to buy.

That's not half as funny as clueless people calling the bottom just past the peak of the bubble.

 

[Starcraftmazter]

You take re short, i take gold short,

You call the exit for re which will also be the end of your bearish view which will trigger my exit in gold, all hypothetical so we can look back on today and see how things have changed.

That was not my take on corrections but my real world experiance with them. i take it yours has been different?

In regards to gold, you can do whatever you want with your other trades/investment, but I want it nothing to do with me.

In regards to RE, you are confusing one's stance on a market with one's investments and/or trades in said market. Just because I am bearish on something doesn't mean I will take a position on it an keep it for the entirety of the time I hold that view. I cannot even begin to explain how stupid this notion of yours is.

I am bearish on Australian property for at least 20 years; however I have no intention in holding any position on anything for that long.

 

[im sparticus]

In regards to gold, you can do whatever you want with your other trades/investment, but I want it nothing to do with me.

In regards to RE, you are confusing one's stance on a market with one's investments and/or trades in said market. Just because I am bearish on something doesn't mean I will take a position on it an keep it for the entirety of the time I hold that view. I cannot even begin to explain how stupid this notion of yours is.

I am bearish on Australian property for at least 20 years; however I have no intention in holding any position on anything for that long.

ok you can call the exit and still be bearish. long time to be bearish just how old are you anyway? Youtube says 22. Ps. I have a youtube account too sparticus11 check it out.

 

[Julia]

nice post young gun.. i dont read these threads back much myself, but it looks like the usual case of peoples ego's getting the better of themselves. i saw a mod intervene a few posts back.. so its gettin ugly i guess..

dont feel intimidated into explaining yourself, but you have just done that.. so big ups from me for being pretty young and having a level head..

Yes, agree.
Good to see someone express themselves so reasonably, no ranting, no insults, and making complete sense.

 

[Ves]

To balance the argument i will go short gold a the current spot of 1569.

Your short is getting squeezed as we speak. If it was real money it'd be hard not to blink. Especially if QE3 comes around.

 

[numbercruncher]

Sparticus your short has been smoked - hand over your Houses and Credit cards to team Bear/Realists.

 

[im sparticus]

Now i get why you think the sky is falling down. 4% = crash total wipe out,and you guys call yourself realists. More like hanging on to every bit of bad news that supports your theory and extending its truth as far as you can confirmation biasists! all the best scm calls the exit how many of you realists made money on last nights pop? oh your still holding since $1950
. Even scm wont buy gold now....apparently its manipulated lol have fun with your money under your mattress.

 

[im sparticus]

Its funny when rpdata was reporting positive results it was rigged now its reporting negative results and they gooble it up hook line and sinker.