AYN - Alcyone Resources

[iced earth]

Silver - 19 August 2011
================================
Silver is braking the neck line of the Head& Shoulders pattern, if monday silver closes high with a good volume, target could be around $50.00 .


View attachment 44143

Now, silver had a pullback to the neck line after breaking up that in a mentioned Tilted H&S, Target would be around $50.00

 

[iced earth]

AYN-22 Sept 2011:

Investors should be careful for this channel, with considering the Silver price around $37.00 , the lower line of channel might be broken...

 

[Miner]

Last posting was Sept 2011 and then nothing.

AYN used to be traders (some) favourite, some brokers heavily recommended it, good reports in March, but today it flogged to its all time low value in 12months.

significant volume 11 m shares traded today until now.

Is there some bad news even if gold got flogged today?

My previous parcel was at .082 so I topped it today at .067 bringing the average lower at .070.

Hopefully there is no CR considering the mining conference presentation late March was glowing.

Any one is following or willing to provide some considerable opinion?

Cheers

 

[Miner]

after heavy trading volume the trade got stuck since 15 minutes before closing - 3.44 pm onwards no trade until 3.54 PM. some one bought at .068 and then it was a transfer. Then the price dived again at .067 - but very low volume.
for a change with my buying, the share price went up by.001 since I bought .
I am getting a uncanny feeling that there are interested parties unloading it for profit booking or to accumulate wealth to buy at CR - all speculfation until market closes and we find some surprise.

still looking for comments from silver/AYN traders/ followers.

 

[mr. jeff]

Hi Miner,

I don't have much to add to your thoughts, except that I have been following CCU for some time and have found that silver stocks are just not attracting attention at the moment.
I would put this down to the volatility in the silver market which makes it dangerous in periods when the overall conditions are shaky, particularly to large holders/buyers.
I have noted that CCU has had extremely low volume leading up to production and AYN similarly has had very little serious trading from what I see at a glance.
I would expect that there will be little action in these stocks - including ARD but excepting IVR, until there is some stabilization and/or further stimulus in the US which may provide impetus for a further move in precious metals.

I will add more when I know something worthwhile.

 

[pixel]

Hi Miner,

I don't have much to add to your thoughts, except that I have been following CCU for some time and have found that silver stocks are just not attracting attention at the moment.
I would put this down to the volatility in the silver market which makes it dangerous in periods when the overall conditions are shaky, particularly to large holders/buyers.
I have noted that CCU has had extremely low volume leading up to production and AYN similarly has had very little serious trading from what I see at a glance.
I would expect that there will be little action in these stocks - including ARD but excepting IVR, until there is some stabilization and/or further stimulus in the US which may provide impetus for a further move in precious metals.

I will add more when I know something worthwhile.

Price of silver has dropped back below 50% of this year's trading range.



Compared to that, AYN has however been punished far more severely.
Do punters, by any chance, see a problem that the floods may have created? e.g. wash-out of heap leaching? The rains may well have diluted the acid to being ineffective. Maybe the company could issue a statement to allay such concerns?

Should the potential H&S pattern play out, some further downside must be expected.

 

[Miner]

Hi Miner,

I don't have much to add to your thoughts, except that I have been following CCU for some time and have found that silver stocks are just not attracting attention at the moment.
I would put this down to the volatility in the silver market which makes it dangerous in periods when the overall conditions are shaky, particularly to large holders/buyers.
I have noted that CCU has had extremely low volume leading up to production and AYN similarly has had very little serious trading from what I see at a glance.
I would expect that there will be little action in these stocks - including ARD but excepting IVR, until there is some stabilization and/or further stimulus in the US which may provide impetus for a further move in precious metals.

I will add more when I know something worthwhile.

Price of silver has dropped back below 50% of this year's trading range.

View attachment 46705

Compared to that, AYN has however been punished far more severely.
Do punters, by any chance, see a problem that the floods may have created? e.g. wash-out of heap leaching? The rains may well have diluted the acid to being ineffective. Maybe the company could issue a statement to allay such concerns?

Should the potential H&S pattern play out, some further downside must be expected.

View attachment 46706

Thanks Mr Jeff and Pixel for throwing some commentary on silver and AYN.
Well with market is up, AYN has receeded further south. So as Pixel suspected, there could be just not silver price but more specific site issue.
I will not jump into conclusion and wait to see.

Many thanks again

 

[AllAussie]

Quarterly report is out today, with no major issues reported, apart from the continued slow ramp up due to the rain.

The only other thing of note is the disposal of the Rivertree JV?

Still not sure why its taken such as hammering the past few weeks...

 

[Miner]

the open secret has come out of the closed bag from AYN.
They either asked for some capital or going to raise capital.
Trading halt. either way the SP will go south once the halt lifted

 

[AllAussie]

I hope the capital is to be used for an aggressive drilling program

Would have thought they would be expecting to be running at a profit before the end of the year and using it to fund further exploration.

Surely they cant need that much more capital right now

 

[Miner]

Yesterday AYN called for suspension and my buy order has been deleted by ASX
so the capital raising is a Dunne Deal . With market in general south in overseas and ASX, AYN will go further south

 

[AllAussie]

Another trading halt???????

 

[Miner]

Another trading halt???????

Unfortunately that is very true
If you have looked into the share price dived before closing, bidder price and now DJ index slump in continuity (thanks to Mr Obama and support for Gay Marriage) to let the market react (about him not going to be reelected for sure ), I will not be surprised if the trading halt (related to CR) will be cancellation of the earlier CR deal.
So AYN back to square one with no investor to put money.
Flip side - it is a good silver mines and ripened for a take over

 

[Miner]

Unfortunately that is very true
If you have looked into the share price dived before closing, bidder price and now DJ index slump in continuity (thanks to Mr Obama and support for Gay Marriage) to let the market react (about him not going to be reelected for sure ), I will not be surprised if the trading halt (related to CR) will be cancellation of the earlier CR deal.
So AYN back to square one with no investor to put money.
Flip side - it is a good silver mines and ripened for a take over

With accepted lower price for CR 4.8 cents the market will take a heavy stick to hammer it further.
Where are those brokers who heavily recommended AYN as a buy.
Not grapes are sour, but still I fail to understand market behaviour on discounting this so low.
Any way I will hold without an exit plan for it now

 

[PT Cruiser]

Bit of a novice when it comes to this sort of situation, but with the price down another 7% today to 0.041, why would anyone participate in a CR at 0.048?

 

[CanOz]

A bit of falling knife at the moment...

 

[skc]

Bit of a novice when it comes to this sort of situation, but with the price down another 7% today to 0.041, why would anyone participate in a CR at 0.048?

You've just answered your own question.

A bit of falling knife at the moment...

Like all precious metal stocks. They are not so precious in the last 3 months.

 

[Miner]

A bit of falling knife at the moment...

Good graph. Not knowing much on this analysis, I could see AYN has crossed south of the support zone.
Is it mean a signal of free fall ?

 

[Miner]

Bit of a novice when it comes to this sort of situation, but with the price down another 7% today to 0.041, why would anyone participate in a CR at 0.048?

You call yourself a novice !! A million dollar question. When the investors get duped with dummy broker reports, impressive projection by another set of brokers (because they will get the commission no matter how the future price behaves) there are often cash rich investors who put their money to buy at 0.048. Remember the same people offered a higher price only few weeks back.

Tell tale sign (I hate to say even if I am holder) the so called investors have money but do not have knowledge of market . It is like James Packer investment and not like Robert Milner's investment.

So AYN crossed below 4 cents and probably there will be another announcement for further price reduction.

Well if I have had disposable cash then I would have invested in AYN now because the technical strengths are great excepting (like me) no cash in bank

 

[hangseng]

You call yourself a novice !! A million dollar question. When the investors get duped with dummy broker reports, impressive projection by another set of brokers (because they will get the commission no matter how the future price behaves) there are often cash rich investors who put their money to buy at 0.048. Remember the same people offered a higher price only few weeks back.

Tell tale sign (I hate to say even if I am holder) the so called investors have money but do not have knowledge of market . It is like James Packer investment and not like Robert Milner's investment.

So AYN crossed below 4 cents and probably there will be another announcement for further price reduction.

Well if I have had disposable cash then I would have invested in AYN now because the technical strengths are great excepting (like me) no cash in bank

Hi Miner, wow, what a mess. What the hell has happened here????

I read the said reports and all very favourable, now a CR that has been lowered and unless a recovery in the sp maybe as you say lower again. Never have I seen anything like this. Probably to state the obvious, this is either way oversold as indicated in TA or something is fundamentally wrong here. The latter I will have a look at.

I know the Ag, Au and Cu price have all been hit. However I recall ABY getting hit hard in the GFC and falling Cu price and it rebounded dramatically. The outlook for Cu and Ag, in particular Cu IMO is outstanding, regardless of the Greek mess. I smell a way oversold position here and if it is will consider taking this up if my review shows no fundamental problem.

Technically AYN must hold here or will go to around 2.5/2.7 it seems. As I type buyers coming in, or is that simply shortsell covering at this level? Oh for a crystal ball...

Anything you can enlighten me to during this review miner I would appreciate.

Cheers
HS