Resisting Climate Hysteria

[dbeyat45]

Jockey shortage reported!

No need to worry .... there will soon be plenty of short people:

The Short People Solution to Climate Change
http://reason.com/blog/2012/03/12/the-short-people-solution-to-climate-cha

Short people are more climate-friendly argue researchers at New York University and Oxford University in a provocative new paper, Human Engineering and Climate Change, to be published in the journal Ethics, Policy and the Environment. This is not the first time that environmental concerns have motivated such a suggestion.
​

And, for those of you with a slightly sadistic streak .... here is more detail from Professor Liao (Philosophy and Bioethics, NYU):
http://www.theatlantic.com/technolo...uld-be-the-solution-to-climate-change/253981/

 

[dbeyat45]

New Study: Russian Astrophysicist Predicts Global Cooling

“We can expect the onset of a deep bicentennial minimum of total solar irradiance (TSI) in approximately 2042 ±11 and the 19th deep minimum of global temperature in the past 7500 years – in 2055 ±11. After the maximum of solar cycle 24, from approximately 2014 we can expect the start of deep cooling with a Little Ice Age in 2055 ±11.” –Habibullo I. Abdussamatov, Russian Academy of Science, 1 February 2012

Bicentennial Decrease of the Total Solar Irradiance Leads to Unbalanced Thermal Budget of the Earth and the Little Ice Age
Applied Physics Research, Vol. 4, No. 1 February 2012

 

[Knobby22]

Thanks dbeyat45

I like that scientific paper.
So it claims 40% of global warming, at least in the northern zones (the effect appears to be more pronounced the further you go towards the poles) is caused by the sunspot cycle and importantly the next cycle, which can be measured to prove the theory, should be downwards. I like theories that can be tested.

I fervently hope that their theory is correct as this will give us more time.
If true, nature and humanity are very lucky as it will help offset global warming by greenhouse gases in the short to medium term allowing the world more time to come up with other solutions.

 

[Logique]

Working beautifully there dbeyat45.

For those wanting to pursue the theory of sunspot activity related global cooling, there's also Kevin Long's work, see: http://www.thelongview.com.au/sunmoonclimate.html

It is anything but a fringe theory, I've seen discussion from a variety of credible scientific sources.

 

[OzWaveGuy]

I fervently hope that their theory is correct as this will give us more time.
If true, nature and humanity are very lucky as it will help offset global warming by greenhouse gases in the short to medium term allowing the world more time to come up with other solutions.

Uh-oh, more delusion thinking - exactly how much will the world's temperature fall should man's Co2 be reduced back to the 2000 levels (or the 1950 levels take your pick)? And how long will this take? I understand an "elitist" scientist indicated approx 1000 yrs....Some very simple questions that can help with some perspective on alarmist speak.

Perhaps you could also eloborate how the IPCC multiplies the effect of Co2 by x3 due to "forcings" and if the models are in fact accurate? Does the IPCC continue to assert the "impact" of increased is CO2 linear in the earth's atmosphere? Again, some simple questions need answering for balanced perspective v's the standard "we are doomed" alarmists nonsense.

 

[Knobby22]

Ozwaveguy, humanity is pretty resourceful. We may be able to offest the rise in CO2 by other technologies. In fact it is well known that one right wing think tank is expending a lot of money doing just that even though they are publically espousing the alternative.

Most scientists are not engaged in modelling by in measurement and theorising. Because the models are necessarily incomplete does not let the basic facts disappear.

Also there are many models that are continually being modified and you cherry picking one element of one of them out of context doesn't help.

I would really like to see you progress to the level of skeptic however that will require a change of mindset.

 

[OzWaveGuy]

Also there are many models that are continually being modified and you cherry picking one element of one of them out of context doesn't help.

I would really like to see you progress to the level of skeptic however that will require a change of mindset.

Change of Mindset? What mindset do I need to change to Knobby? Are you asserting I should stop asking questions that you/basilio et al have never answered sufficiently or at all?

Cherry Picking? Simply asking questions on the fundamental foundation of alarmist AGW assertions is considered cherry picking? Perhaps you could just answer them?

To make it easier for the alarmist, perhaps the skeptics should simply follow the fictional con-census "97% of climate scientists assert...." routine.

As I've asserted before - it's the alarmist lap dogs that have demolished the confidence in the AGW scare and forced people to look closely at the facts and to ask pertinent questions - and hence, confidence in AGW alarmist double speak is continuing to fall.

 

[dbeyat45]

It's interesting to note that the Arctic, according to all the agencies, is showing a late season spurt in ice growth .....

Arctic Regional Ocean Observing System (Ice Area):
http://arctic-roos.org/observations...e/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_area_small.png
Arctic ROOS (Ice Extent):
http://arctic-roos.org/observations...ce/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_ext_small.png
DMI (Ice Cover):
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/icecover_current.png
NSIDC (Extent):
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png

Meanwhile, there is a continuing upward trend in the Antarctic sea ice anomaly ....

University of Illinois:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.anom.south.jpg
... and Antarctic sea ice extent continues above the 1979-2000 mean (NSIDC):
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png

Isn't the ice supposed to be melting and the Arctic ice free by <insert_date_here>?

 

[explod]

I
University of Illinois:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.anom.south.jpg
... and Antarctic sea ice extent continues above the 1979-2000 mean (NSIDC):
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png

Isn't the ice supposed to be melting and the Arctic ice free by <insert_date_here>?

On the first reference, its not area but depth that is the problem issue.

The second chart is just the normal fluctuation by season and there has been a bit more cloud about this year.

 

[explod]

It's interesting to note that the Arctic, according to all the agencies, is showing a late season spurt in ice growth .....

Arctic Regional Ocean Observing System (Ice Area):
http://arctic-roos.org/observations...e/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_area_small.png
Arctic ROOS (Ice Extent):
http://arctic-roos.org/observations...ce/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_ext_small.png
DMI (Ice Cover):
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/icecover_current.png
NSIDC (Extent):
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png

Again these charts all appear to measure area not quantity and the last in fact indicates that the ice cover is decreasing.

The issue down south are the thick blocks, some miles in depth, are/were millions of years old that are breaking up as the warmth eats away at the perma frost areas and warmer waters flow underneath and dislodge them.

 

[dbeyat45]

Again these charts all appear to measure area not quantity and the last in fact indicates that the ice cover is decreasing.

The issue down south are the thick blocks, some miles in depth, are/were millions of years old that are breaking up as the warmth eats away at the perma frost areas and warmer waters flow underneath and dislodge them.

Explod, have another look at this:
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png
Do you still see something in the chart that indicates decreasing?

I would be interested to see a reference for your second paragraph ...

Also, can you provide something on the cloud cover (a bit more cloud about) as it affects the above average Antarctic sea ice extent?

 

[basilio]

Hi Dbeyat

With regard to the reference for the overall decreasing mass of ice in Antarctica check out the following URl. It also discusses why there is some increase in sea ice cover in some parts of Antarctica. Unfortunately there is an overall substantial net melting.

The most recent GRACE study also identified the amount and source of melting of global ice. Greenland and Antarctic are responsible for 303 billion tones of ice melt. The attached story/video is a good analysis of that research paper.

http://climatecrocks.com/2012/02/13/grace-and-glacial-ice-melt/

http://www.skepticalscience.com/antarctica-gaining-ice.htm

You also opened a discussion on the effect of sunspot activity as a large cause of global warming and cooling.

Changes in the level of solar activity are recognised as one of the many background factors that affects our climate. However in the context of the much larger effect of greenhouse gases almost all climate scientists give it a minor influence. Check out the following reference for that discussion. It references many, many studies on the topic

http://www.skepticalscience.com/solar-activity-sunspots-global-warming-intermediate.htm

 

[basilio]

With regard to the effect of the sun and cosmic activity on the earths cliamte.

A few years ago The Great Global Warming Swindle attempted to show how the earths climate followed solar activity.

Unfortunately they managed to leave out data from 1980 onwards over the last 30 years that murdered their "story". The following video shows this up particularly well and also examines the bigger picture of cosmic activity as significant effect on our cliamte.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAx6j625iy4&list=UU-KTrAqt2784gL_I4JisF1w&index=5&feature=plcp

______________________________________________________________________________________

On a similar note there is a fascinating story on how Global warming was identified by scientists in the 1950's.

The attached video opens this discussion and thens examinines how the worlds cliamte has changed over the more recent past. Very, very good.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sdALFnlwV_o&feature=related

 

[macca]

NSW Tidal Water measures report:

<<Figure 4 shows monthly average and yearly averaged water level data from Fort Denison. The record has not been adjusted for anomaly drivers (such as MSLP), so represents the measured water level at the gauge. The long-term sea level trend of 0.94 mm/year is clearly apparent, as are variations to the average rate of rise.
The last 20-year period, covering the data range of the other MHL gauging sites, is associated with sustained El Niño conditions, generally associated with drier, less stormy conditions in Australia. This causes a depressing of regional sea levels and is seen as a slowing of sea level rise in the Fort Denison data to 0.4 mm/year for 1986-2007 (MHL1881). This would imply that gauges across NSW with data sets of approximately 20 years will underestimate sea level rise.>>

http://www.coastalconference.com/2011/papers2011/Ben Modra Full Paper.pdf

So it would seem that should we experience dryer weather (El Niño) as predicted by Mr Garnaut then we can expect sea levels to rise 0.4MM per year.

 

[OzWaveGuy]

In order to help those skeptics here change their "mindset" to that of an elite "scientist" such as Tim Flannery as Basilio and Knobby portray, we will need to learn (and accept) a new mindset that includes how to change recorded temperatures to show warming trends where there are none...

Good to see Alice Springs gets a mention in the GISS surface temperature analysis....

BEFORE Adjustment...

AFTER Adjustment...

A missing hockey stick perhaps?

Hopefully that's concluded the first lesson for skeptics that are in the process of changing "mindsets" as the alarmist here insist.

Perhaps Basilio or Knobby can highlight some other alarmist fantasies that we must adopt and accept as fact in our endeavors with mindset change?

 

[Timmy]

Don't really wanna get all hysterical on ewes but ... well ... this is real dudes:

An influential US consumer watchdog is investigating online reports that Apple's new iPad throws off an unusually large amount of heat and will publish ...
A Dutch tech website has 'proved' the the new iPad is warmer, with a thermal camera picture that shows the new tablet is 5.3 °C hotter than an iPad 2.

http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/...-throws-off-too-much-heat-20120321-1vil4.html

3 million new iPads were sold over the weekend.
3,000,000*5.3 degrees C = 15.9 million degrees C, dudes

Gotta be fair, report not released yet.
But it is feelin' warmer in here.

 

[Logique]

Of all the causes of global warming, Apple iPads is one I had overlooked. Hoping for iPad owners to use responsibly.

SOI chart below: it can be announced that global warming is about to resume. Chartists on ASF will confirm that the SOI weighted mean seems to have made a lower high, with now downward momentum, the reading approaching the signal line.

 

[wayneL]

Don't really wanna get all hysterical on ewes but ... well ... this is real dudes:



http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/...-throws-off-too-much-heat-20120321-1vil4.html

3 million new iPads were sold over the weekend.
3,000,000*5.3 degrees C = 15.9 million degrees C, dudes

Gotta be fair, report not released yet.
But it is feelin' warmer in here.

So that's why the hard disc on my PC overheated and blew itself up last week!

Apple responsible for an overheated NASDAQ as well.

AGW - We are doomed. :


**Apple induced Global Warming.

 

[Timmy]

So that's why the hard disc on my PC overheated and blew itself up last week!

Apple responsible for an overheated NASDAQ as well.

AGW - We are doomed. :


**Apple induced Global Warming.

And if I do it in Fahrenheit s its even worse.

And I'm not gonna even try in Kelvins - Freak ewes out too much.

 

[Logique]

So that's why the hard disc on my PC overheated and blew itself up last week! :eek7.....

Wayne put this utility on your computer - CrystalDiskInfo at: http://download.cnet.com/CrystalDiskInfo/3000-2086_4-10832082.html

There's a more recent version than in the link, V4.1.3, which I'm using, so look for that. 1.4MB download (free). CrystalDiskInfo is a HDD health monitoring utility. It displays basic HDD information, monitors S.M.A.R.T. values, and disk temperature. You can leave it open and set a resample interval. Great for summer.