The future of Australian property prices

[trainspotter]

Hahahahahahaaaa *gasp* hhehehehehehhe *choke* lololollllllloll te he

Contraction of credit happened 2 years ago with the GFC ......... Nuffin.

Ponzi finance will become a victim of Ponzi finance?? WTF .... what kind of statement is this? People in Australalia (not a typo sound it out in your head) will sell their grandmothers prior to defaulting on a housing loan DYOR

I WROTE TWO YEARS AGO THAT PRICES HAD STAGNATED :rolleyes

Large External Shock??? WTF do you think the GFC was?? A small fart in the lower intestines??

As experience SHOWS and evidences we are not the USA !!!!!!!!!!! FFS.

Let me explain it real simple for all of you neophytes out there.

If you have a job and a mortgage you pay the mortgage because you have income to pay the instrument.

If you dont have a job you cannot pay the mortgage so therefore the piper will call the tune.

HELLO ?????????????? There is not an emoticon I cannot attach to this statement to clarlify.

Please please please STOP quoting ridiculous information and form an opinion yourself. I am heavily involved in the housing market. I have been for 20 years. I am still making money. Get a friggin grip peoples.

 

[medicowallet]

Whaaaaaaaaa ??? Prices stagnated about 2 years ago dude. Go look back through the thread where this was advised by none other than my good self. The price rises in CERTAIN areas was about the same as price drops in CERTAIN areas.

Like I said ....... wait until the jobs start to DECLINE across the board. A few job losses in retail might smarten them up. **** service they provide anyhow in most shops I go in to so they deserve what they get.

Name them.

1. I agree with the service part

2. Prices decreased, the govt introduced the FHVG and then they went up, now they have stagnated for 6 months (as per reports in today's paper) and I wonder what will happen with no further FHVB.

3. I know you are heavily involved in housing market. Does that make much of a difference? Emmanuel Cassimatis was heavily involved in the sharemarket too, Eddie Groves was heavily involved in the child care industry, Udo Jattke was involved in housing development etc etc.

 

[trainspotter]

1. I agree with the service part

2. Prices decreased, the govt introduced the FHVG and then they went up, now they have stagnated for 6 months (as per reports in today's paper) and I wonder what will happen with no further FHVB.

3. I know you are heavily involved in housing market. Does that make much of a difference? Emmanuel Cassimatis was heavily involved in the sharemarket too, Eddie Groves was heavily involved in the child care industry, Udo Jattke was involved in housing development etc etc.

1) I am glad we finally agree on something (albeit a small morsel)

2) Nup ...... stagnation in the property market has been going on for a WEEE bit more timeframe than this. The paper told you this??? HUH????? You rely on newsprint to stay up to date?? WTF??? 6 months ??? LOL. :


3) Blinded by the science. You are a Doctor of Medicine. Does the heirachy know what is going on?? HAAHHAAHA A aaaaaaaa nope. The big shots that you have described were they walking the walk with THEIR money or someone elses?? I am using MY MONEY and no one elses. Eddie Groves !!!!!!!!! AHah aha ah ah*spit* gagagaagagga *vomit* you have to be kidding me surely?

 

[FxTrader]

Contraction of credit happened 2 years ago with the GFC ......... Nuffin.

Perhaps you were not following events that closely 2 years ago but the credit contraction was calmed by a large stimulus package and bank deposit guarantee but caused a few casualties among smaller institutions.

People in Australalia (not a typo sound it out in your head) will sell their grandmothers prior to defaulting on a housing loan

Good to know that all Australians have a self-nominated spokesperson on property ownership preferences in a crisis. Following on from your goofy assertion, I know several people who have hung onto property in the U.S. post GFC and they are either in extreme negative equity or have simply stopped paying their mortgage but kept the grandmother. Perhaps that was their mistake!

As experience SHOWS and evidences we are not the USA !!!!!!!!!!! FFS.

Neither are we Ireland, the U.K. or Spain. We are different, a special case and immune to the problems confronting the world financial system. A house price bust just can't happen the same way here. LOL

If you have a job and a mortgage you pay the mortgage because you have income to pay the instrument.

If you dont have a job you cannot pay the mortgage so therefore the piper will call the tune.

You still don't get it do you TS. Job destruction occured after the housing market began to collapse overseas not the other way around. Ignore the evidence if you wish but try not to be patronizing and demeaning from a position of ignorance.

Please please please STOP quoting ridiculous information and form an opinion yourself. I am heavily involved in the housing market. I have been for 20 years. I am still making money. Get a friggin grip peoples.

Are information, statistics and quotes from others ridiculous because a blinkered property bull says so? What has your 20 years of property investment experience taught you about risk management, anything at all?

So if you're still making money in property does that mean others should jump into the market now, of course not. This thread is about the future of property prices not past glory.

 

[trainspotter]

Perhaps you were not following events that closely 2 years ago but the credit contraction was calmed by a large stimulus package and bank deposit guarantee but caused a few casualties among smaller institutions.

Good to know that all Australians have a self-nominated spokesperson on property ownership preferences in a crisis. Following on from your goofy assertion, I know several people who have hung onto property in the U.S. post GFC and they are either in extreme negative equity or have simply stopped paying their mortgage but kept the grandmother. Perhaps that was their mistake!

Neither are we Ireland, the U.K. or Spain. We are different, a special case and immune to the problems confronting the world financial system. A house price bust just can't happen the same way here. LOL

You still don't get it do you TS. Job destruction occured after the housing market began to collapse overseas not the other way around. Ignore the evidence if you wish but try not to be patronizing and demeaning from a position of ignorance.

Are information, statistics and quotes from others ridiculous because a blinkered property bull says so? What has your 20 years of property investment experience taught you about risk management, anything at all?

So if you're still making money in property does that mean others should jump into the market now, of course not. This thread is about the future of property prices not past glory.

Bwahahahaha ah ahhaahhahahaaaaaaaaa

People held onto propetry in the USA ????? More fool them.

Let me know when the Steven Keen prophesy corrupts absolutley!!

I await with baited breath

I have repeated myself yet again. If you do not like property then go and invest in the shonk market. There is more money to be made there @

Ignore "evidence" ......... LOL ...... mitigating circumstances made it so. The countries you are talking about where in a world of pain PRIOR to a housing melt down.

No such circumstances here.

BTW ..... the bank guarantee and everthing else happened AFTER what I had written ..... but you knew that cause you were keeping up with the thread. You clever person you !!

I for one have NEVER advocated to ANYONE that what I do in property is the right thing for them to perform. If you look back 18 months ago I explained my strategy, It involves a large amount of CASH/EQUITY. My risk management is just fine thank you very much.

Past glory???? ROFL ........ Look at how many posts I have written about how BAD property is in CERTAIN areas. F@CK ME ......... you need to get up to speed before you start sharpening the knives. NO it does not mean that people should jump in now expecting "past" ROR ..... what a goose logic.

Go and buy some shares and leave the real people that make real money in RE alone.

 

[FxTrader]

I have repeated myself yet again. If you do not like property then go and invest in the shonk market. There is more money to be made there

In sarcasm you unwittingly speak the truth, there has always been much more money to be made in the stock market if you go both short and long equity positions.

BTW ..... the bank guarantee and everthing else happened AFTER what I had written ..... but you knew that cause you were keeping up with the thread. You clever person you !!

Frankly, I could care less what you wrote 2 years ago unless you predicted the GFC. But you did not did you ye old property oracle. Your crystal ball let you down.

I for one have NEVER advocated to ANYONE that what I do in property is the right thing for them to perform. If you look back 18 months ago I explained my strategy, It involves a large amount of CASH/EQUITY. My risk management is just fine thank you very much.

So what you do in property investment you don't advocate anyone else do even though you're successful? Please..... what a joke. You're the most prolific prophet for the bull case for property investment on this thread. Even the demented bots does not compare.

Go and buy some shares and leave the real people that make real money in RE alone.

I've made lots of money in RE pal but I won't stop warning people here about the perils of investing in RE now because you don't like my responses.

 

[trainspotter]

In sarcasm you unwittingly speak the truth, there has always been much more money to be made in the stock market if you go both short and long equity positions.

Then go and do it you stockmarket guru. There is also a lot of money to be LOST on the stockmarket if you do not know what you are doing. Property is the same IF YOU DO NOT KNOW WHAT YOU ARE DOING !!

Frankly, I could care less what you wrote 2 years ago unless you predicted the GFC. But you did not did you ye old property oracle. Your crystal ball let you down.

Ummmm was not a member of this site then but I do remember setting and forgetting quite a few real estate transactions prior to the GFC. Tell me what has the GFC done to real estate in Australia again?? I mean after it went up over 20% in CERTAIN areas. Yes yes yes it has also gone down more than this in CERTAIN areas. How many times do I need to write this information for you to digest

So what you do in property investment you don't advocate anyone else do even though you're successful? Please..... what a joke. You're the most prolific prophet for the bull case for property investment on this thread. Even the demented bots does not compare.

Yes that is right as you are not allowed to give advice on this medium. No matter how much you roll a turd in glitter it is still a turd. Prolific prophet?? Bwaahahhahahaa aaa ... go and LOOK at what I have written. I have repeatedly written for over 2 years that property is stagnating and trancing sideways and going DOWN up to 40% in CERTAIN areas. LOL and I am a property BULL??? You need to go and have a good look at what has been written. But no doubt this will not happen as you will be too busy looking at Steven Keens charts and pie graphs. LEGEND ! WAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHH like a siren he goes off SEL SELL SELL 40% drop just like the USA he klaxoned. Get a grip.

I've made lots of money in RE pal but I won't stop warning people here about the perils of investing in RE now because you don't like my responses.

So I am dog food now PAL ?? The perils of RE investing is people like you that haven't a clue what they are talking about and are terrified of making a decision.



Look at this chart ... it evidences what I have been wrting that the bank credit squeeze is slowing transactions. Down nearly 16% for a 5 year average so far. HOW MANY TIMES DO I WRITE THIS !!

MARCH 10 to MARCH 11 House prices on 8 capital cities average DOWN is 1.7% mainly due to Brisbane being wiped out by floods.

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6416.0

 

[Tysonboss1]

Tell me what has the GFC done to real estate in Australia again??[/url]

Lowered interest rates.:

 

[choofer]

So must be time to buy then.
All those who have been waiting for opportunity--- HERE IT IS!

Opportunity for what? More debt? lol

 

[Dowdy]

I have a question to ask about something I was thinking about..


Is it possible to get an 'Offshore Mortgage'?

Since US 30 fixed is at around 4%. It wouldn't be any different then an offshore account, i don't think.


If it is possible, the only con I can see is the exchange rate but don't some banks let you have an account with them in a different currency?

 

[cutz]

I have a question to ask about something I was thinking about..


Is it possible to get an 'Offshore Mortgage'?

Since US 30 fixed is at around 4%. It wouldn't be any different then an offshore account, i don't think.


If it is possible, the only con I can see is the exchange rate but don't some banks let you have an account with them in a different currency?

To buy Australian or US assets ?

 

[prawn_86]

If it is possible, the only con I can see is the exchange rate but don't some banks let you have an account with them in a different currency?

You can hold currency accounts with most banks, but there is usually a monthly charge. And i dont see the point, because even if you did have a currency account and got a mortage here in Aus then that would be in AUD so you would still be exposed to the exchange rates. Same thing as what happened with the Swiss carry trade loans back in the 90's.

 

[cutz]

You can hold currency accounts with most banks, but there is usually a monthly charge. And i dont see the point, because even if you did have a currency account and got a mortage here in Aus then that would be in AUD so you would still be exposed to the exchange rates. Same thing as what happened with the Swiss carry trade loans back in the 90's.

Yeah,

I was thinking along the lines that buying a deflating asset like aussie property using USD cheap debt could be a little dangerous in the event of a correction in the AUD. Something like a double wammy.

 

[greebly24]

I have repeatedly written for over 2 years that property is stagnating and trancing sideways and going DOWN up to 40% in CERTAIN areas.

Oceanique apartments in Dawesville, south of Perth, discounted their remaining 26 luxury apartments by 40% in mid-2010. One is advertised for sale for $1.1 million with 3.99% reduced interest for four years. That's a 40% drop plus another interest deduction of up to $150k.

And Today Tonight in Brisbane had a property price plunge story on recently. One devastated lady paid $1.5m for a Gold Coast apartment now worth $800k. That's a 46% loss.

So some properties are dropping MORE than 40% in CERTAIN areas.

The saddest part of the TT story was the bus driver approaching retirement who put down $156k 10% deposit on a $1.56m apartment. Guess he believed the hype and thought he'd pay interest-only on this IP, wait a few years of 7%+ capital growth and retire a millionaire. Sadly now he's trying to get out of the contract losing only his deposit and working until he's over 70. Bugger.

Despite that, there is still money to be made in real estate if you are very careful, but you have to ask yourself it is a better return than other asset classes? Sold my silver recently for a 100% two-year profit. Nice. But could have made much more if I'd sold it a couple of months ago. Fell in love with it, clouded my judgement, held on too long and then made less than I could have. Live and learn. Same goes with property.

Missed out on a $250k two-bed inner-city maisonette IP in Adelaide this week (was a bargain). What surprised me was how desperate the bank was to give me finance, and how desperate the RE agent was to sell me any other place.

Looking at other IPs, noticed studio-apartment student accomodation in Adelaide is dropping. The funniest ad read "Great investment - pay less than the vendor did." Hilarious!!!

So I have no doubt that property has been a great investment over the last decade. The question is, is it the best investment right now?

By the way, Aussie CPI hit 3.6% so another interest rate hike could be coming. Bigger returns for those cashed up and more whingeing and anti-govt hatred coming to a talkback radio near you soon.

 

[trainspotter]

Summed up brilliantly greebly24. The massive losses you are talking about is in the "luxury" end of town which has been overheated for too long. Coming back to the normal prices is a good thing overall for the state of play.

Probably why I wrote this

There is also a lot of money to be LOST on the stockmarket if you do not know what you are doing. Property is the same IF YOU DO NOT KNOW WHAT YOU ARE DOING !!

CPI spike is a one off due to the devastation on the Eastern seaboard. Bananas is the culprit

 

[medicowallet]

Bwahahahaha ah ahhaahhahahaaaaaaaaa

People held onto propetry in the USA ????? More fool them.

Let me know when the Steven Keen prophesy corrupts absolutley!!

I await with baited breath

Your posts are starting to get a bit more antsy.

Anything stressing you at the moment?

 

[Tysonboss1]

. One devastated lady paid $1.5m for a Gold Coast apartment now worth $800k. That's a 46% loss.

If she wasn't happy with paying $1.5M why did she do it in the first place.

 

[cynic]

If she wasn't happy with paying $1.5M why did she do it in the first place.

Quite right Tysonboss1!

If she wanted to own that property and was happy to part with the money then future price would be immaterial right!? After all she still has ownership of the property, so all that was lost was the opportunity to acquire same for a lower price.

Unless she was speculating with the expectation of selling for a profit within a short time frame, a bit like many of those property "flippers" whom buy off the plan expecting to sell for a healthy gain prior to settlement. I'm sure we've all heard success and failure stories pertaining to this type of practice.

 

[tech/a]

Opportunity for what? More debt? lol

Plenty of equity--you have 50% or more.
Search for bargains---there are plenty around.
Tight rental market---they line up to inspect.

OPPORTUNITY.

In the eye of ADVERSITY.

But if you want to think discuss and do as the 97% of people do---it will (Those in the position to take advantage of the opportunity---ie cashed up) PASS YOU BY.

OR

If your a developer like me times like these are as rare as rocking horse do do.
I'm looking for suitable land.
There is more and more coming on the market at less and less.

(One on the Esplanade around 15 doors down from where I live is a 2 block 1800 square meter opportunity currently at $1.4 mill was $1.75mill.
I can fit 4 and if I go community title 5-so its getting close to viable--for me.)

Project builders are falling over one another to get my business.
Property agents are calling me daily wanting my business.
Councils are passing developments quicker than ever.
Building time is quicker than ever.I'm seeing duplexes completed from ground up in 8 mths landscaped and sold!

 

[trainspotter]

Your posts are starting to get a bit more antsy.

Anything stressing you at the moment?

Is this a consultation Doc? Nope ..... just tired of people bumping their gums without knowing what the hell they are talking about. "Just you wait and see" they preach "It will all end in negative tears" the bleat "Steven Keen says so" is my favourite. YEAH RIGHT ! I suppose just like children they are wanting to be heard in a grown ups world.

Is that a typo? antsy = nasty ?