The future of Australian property prices

[FxTrader]

Is this a consultation Doc? Nope ..... just tired of people bumping their gums without knowing what the hell they are talking about. "Just you wait and see" they preach "It will all end in negative tears" the bleat "Steven Keen says so" is my favourite. YEAH RIGHT ! I suppose just like children they are wanting to be heard in a grown ups world.

Well what a surprise (not), more childish carping, sniping put downs of people whose views don't align with the bombastic, supremely arrogant and self-anoited expert on all things to do with property in this thread. Instead of reasoned argument and discussion we get pejorative excrement and personal insults from someone who routinely vomits up unobjective, largely unsupported opinion himself and whose every utterance wreaks of confirmation bias.

Keen (author and professor of economics and finance) is an idiot, ignore him proclaims the self-anoited expert. Why, well because he made a prediction that has not come to pass - yet. Never mind the enormous body of statistical research he has done and the weight of evidence he uses to support his arguments. Therefore, in the mind of one intellectually bankrupt poster on an ego trip in this forum, Keen's analysis as a whole should be discounted and ignored.

Not just Keen, though a frequent target, but anyone who dares venture a contrarian view, no matter who they are or how distinguished they may be, is lampooned, derided and brushed aside with dismissive rhetoric and scant retort. I leave it to others here to decide whose views should carry more weight, someone like Keen or the ramblings of one poster infatuated with his own opinions.

 

[drsmith]

All eyes will be on the RBA on Tuesday.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...truth-approaches/story-e6frg9k6-1226104574518

It's looking very unstable on that tightrope.

 

[medicowallet]

Is this a consultation Doc? Nope ..... just tired of people bumping their gums without knowing what the hell they are talking about. "Just you wait and see" they preach "It will all end in negative tears" the bleat "Steven Keen says so" is my favourite. YEAH RIGHT ! I suppose just like children they are wanting to be heard in a grown ups world.

Is that a typo? antsy = nasty ?

No typo, in fact all (well 99%+) of your posts have not been nasty. I mean antsy as in irritable.

 

[cutz]

No typo, in fact all (well 99%+) of your posts have not been nasty. I mean antsy as in irritable.

According to my analysis, property bull aggression is directly proportional to the rate of bubble deflation.

 

[medicowallet]

According to my analysis, property bull aggression is directly proportional to the rate of bubble deflation.

I think the door swings both ways.

In TS defence, we have had such banter for a long time, and I feel no offense. We joke quite a bit.

I also cannot say anything, as I am no angel.

I think it is ok to be passionate and witty, as long as personal attacks do not take over, in which case, I think TS keeps it quite civil.

 

[trainspotter]

Well what a surprise (not), more childish carping, sniping put downs of people whose views don't align with the bombastic, supremely arrogant and self-anoited expert on all things to do with property in this thread. Instead of reasoned argument and discussion we get pejorative excrement and personal insults from someone who routinely vomits up unobjective, largely unsupported opinion himself and whose every utterance wreaks of confirmation bias.

Keen (author and professor of economics and finance) is an idiot, ignore him proclaims the self-anoited expert. Why, well because he made a prediction that has not come to pass - yet. Never mind the enormous body of statistical research he has done and the weight of evidence he uses to support his arguments. Therefore, in the mind of one intellectually bankrupt poster on an ego trip in this forum, Keen's analysis as a whole should be discounted and ignored.

Not just Keen, though a frequent target, but anyone who dares venture a contrarian view, no matter who they are or how distinguished they may be, is lampooned, derided and brushed aside with dismissive rhetoric and scant retort. I leave it to others here to decide whose views should carry more weight, someone like Keen or the ramblings of one poster infatuated with his own opinions.

RAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRR ! You do bit hard when backed into a corner don't you !!

I have given reasoned arguments with stats and pie charts and 5 year spreadsheets all to no avail over a 2 year period. I have repeatedly explained this is not the FIRST TIME that this has happened in Australia. 3rd time I have experienced by the way. I have PROVEN with ABS stats that it is not that bad as to what you are making out. I have proven that PROPERTY HAS FALLEN 1.7% in 12 months on average in the major capital cities.

Keen shot himself in the dick before he begain BTW. 40% drop he predicted. DID NOT HAPPEN !!!!!!!! It went UP 20% !!!!!!!!!!!!! IT STILL NOT HAS HAPPENED !!!!! (the drop that is) and is unlikely to happen for reasons I have posted in here for VERY VERY LONG TIME !!!! One swallow don't make a summer. You keep crapping on about YET. When is YET/ 1 year? 3 years? 10 years???? FFS ....... I have not once asked anyone to do what I do in RE.

You called me a BULL ..... I showed you that I predicted 40% drops in CERTAIN areas. I pointed out CREDIT SQUEEZE from banks and you ignored me. I GAVE THREE areas that I reckoned could make 20% over the next 3 years. (averaged 17% so not too bad) I gave areas that will suffer mortgage stress due to being conned into RE. I showed you how to make a negative into a positive in this situation and you still want to ignore the real world.

IF YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT YOU ARE DOING IN RE DONT FRIGGIN DO IT.

You can have your contrarian view all you like. I do not have to accept it as a matter of course. I know what I know BECAUSE I AM DOING IT !!!!!!! Are you? Leaving it to others to decide who is right and who is wrong !!!!!! PMSL ....... are you serious???

Now that I have evidenced my position you have taken to the personal attack about my ego and that I am dismissive of other posters on this thread. Big mistake and far from it. I believe all posts on this thread are valid and should be read in the manner that they are written, Medicowallet owns property and has a very good grasp on what is going on. There have been other property people on here that have left due to the monkey poo flinging posts like the one I am responding to.

Tech/a sees this as an opportune time to invest. KWJmac is similar. Kincella is another. Just because you want to win an argument on the internet by squealing like a stuck pig does not make it right.

Go and read something other than Keens diatribe and get a real aspect as to what is going on. I wish you the sincere best in your endeavours.


Medicowallet and myself have a HEALTHY understanding of each other. :

 

[trainspotter]

No typo, in fact all (well 99%+) of your posts have not been nasty. I mean antsy as in irritable.

OHHHHHHHHHHHHHH ....... sorry Doc. I have been under a bit of stress lately. Has nothing to do with property BTW. Small children being quite ill have taken a big slice of my time and demeanour. I am

 

[trainspotter]

FX TRADER WROTE THIS

, largely unsupported opinion himself and whose every utterance wreaks of confirmation bias.

So when I posted all the graphs and links and pie charts and signals and statistics and linear presentations and opinions of economists I was representing myself??

 

[trainspotter]

Keen (author and professor of economics and finance) is an idiot, ignore him proclaims the self-anoited expert. Why, well because he made a prediction that has not come to pass - yet. Never mind the enormous body of statistical research he has done and the weight of evidence he uses to support his arguments. Therefore, in the mind of one intellectually bankrupt poster on an ego trip in this forum, Keen's analysis as a whole should be discounted and ignored.

As one of the conditions of the wager made in September 2008 with Macquarie interest rate strategist Rory Robertson, Keen will be wearing a T-shirt silkscreened with the words,

''I was hopelessly wrong on house prices – ask me how”.

So is he an idiot FX Trader? How is your ego going now? LOLOL

 

[Tysonboss1]

Unless she was speculating with the expectation of selling for a profit within a short time frame, a bit like many of those property "flippers" whom buy off the plan expecting to sell for a healthy gain prior to settlement. I'm sure we've all heard success and failure stories pertaining to this type of practice.

Yeah, If thats the case she broke the golden rule of speculation "Never gamble more than your willing to lose".

But unforntunetly in todays easy language, Many people fail to see the difference between investing and speculation and end up gambling while they think they are investing.

 

[trainspotter]

All eyes will be on the RBA on Tuesday.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...truth-approaches/story-e6frg9k6-1226104574518

It's looking very unstable on that tightrope.

Very much so Drsmith. Housing market is still trancing into negative territory June 10 to June 11 is a full 2% down overall average 8 capital cities. Credit squeeze is not helping either.

The amount borrowed by Australian property buyers climbed just 6 per cent in the year to June, providing more mixed messages on the true state of the Australian economy ahead of the Reserve Bank's monthly interest rates meeting next week.

Coupled with a fall in business borrowing, total private sector credit contracted 0.1 per cent last month - the first fall in lending in almost two years.

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/money/proper...ow/story-e6frfmd0-1226105704865#ixzz0vKjp68Y5

 

[maffu]

Someone posted a link in this thread an indeterminate time ago, and it was a realestate listing site that showed how much the property asking price or rental asking price had been dropped sine initially listing. It also showed how many days the property had been on the market.

I am trying to find this website, I have tried google and looking through the last few pages of this thread but can't seem to find it.

Can anyone remember and repost the site please?

 

[tech/a]

Someone posted a link in this thread an indeterminate time ago, and it was a realestate listing site that showed how much the property asking price or rental asking price had been dropped sine initially listing. It also showed how many days the property had been on the market.

I am trying to find this website, I have tried google and looking through the last few pages of this thread but can't seem to find it.

Can anyone remember and repost the site please?

http://www.realestate.com.au/buy

Could be it have a look around the site.

 

[maffu]

http://www.realestate.com.au/buy

Could be it have a look around the site.

Thanks, I just found it on page 293.
http://www.refindhouseprices.com was the site I was after, it is good for finding rentals that have had to drop their initial asking price.

 

[Dowdy]

Thanks, I just found it on page 293.
http://www.refindhouseprices.com was the site I was after, it is good for finding rentals that have had to drop their initial asking price.

That's site is awesome. Alot of new estates around hoppers and werribee have dropped thier prices alot. Gives a good indication on the FHB market now. All these new estates being built now and no one wants to buy them. And I said nearly a year ago that there was never a shortage of houses and I used that area as my basis, and what-do-you-know, I was right

 

[Uncle Festivus]

IT STILL NOT HAS HAPPENED !!!!! (the drop that is) and is unlikely to happen for reasons I have posted in here for VERY VERY LONG TIME !!!! One swallow don't make a summer. You keep crapping on about YET. When is YET/ 1 year? 3 years? 10 years????

Within 13 months of the next RBA interest rate change, up or down, the median capital city price will be down at least 5%? How's that for 'yet'?

 

[trainspotter]

Within 13 months of the next RBA interest rate change, up or down, the median capital city price will be down at least 5%? How's that for 'yet'?

Irrespective it went up 20% in certain areas. Please provide link evidencing the 5% average 8 capital city fall as well as the entrails of a goat to predict this brash statement. Or are you crystal balling?

 

[kincella]

I know there are some manufactured stats out there that show property versus shares, show comparable returns of income and capital over similar periods

however, those same stats match the very best hedge fund managers in stocks, versus the financially illiterate mum and dad property investors
amazing results,,, the best of the best fund managers...can only show their expertise....is matched by the most illiterate investors out there ...ie the mum and dads who prefer property....

so how on earth, can the taxi drivers, labourers, and paper shufflers...who mainly invest in the penny dreadful stocks.....attain the status of a hedge fund manager....and beat the lazy (perceived illiterate mum and dad property investor)

its a long term investment cycle...
as Warren buffett states...buy when others are selling,,,,and vice versa
in the current climate....the hedge funds are selling stocks
but the smaller market for mums and dads....its a buy for property
are you a fund manager - I doubt it on this forum
food for thought
I say its a buy... for us the alternative property investors
but unless you are a hedge fund manager....you would have no idea

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Irrespective it went up 20% in certain areas. Please provide link evidencing the 5% average 8 capital city fall as well as the entrails of a goat to predict this brash statement. Or are you crystal balling?

I'm basing it loosely on the current rate of retracement and extrapolating that with a worsening factor build in to take account of the deteriorating global economic conditions, so it's fairly conservative if anything. The effects of an interest rate rise is self explanetary, but if rates are lowered it will mean a worsening global outlook, a bit like the learned wise economists at Westpac have foretold ie an IR cut is more likely because things are getting a lot worse.....poor CBA with all those new mortgagees....

 

[trainspotter]

Surely a rate cut is a boon for mortgage holders? Rates to go down will only come about from the mismanagement of the existing government who is currently causing inflation. There are too many mixed signals in the market to predict with any entirety IMO. Inflation going up usually means interest rates go up to curb spending etc. Inflation going up usually means house prices follow. NEITHER of these things have happened. The Phillips curve is about right with employment so what is driving house prices down when inflation is rampant? Inflation also constricts the velocity of the economy.