AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

[condog]

Friday, September 17, 2010 - 06:58

OECD Guerria:Economy Slowed More Than Expected, No Double Dip

VIENNA (MNI) - The economic recovery slowed more than expected at the start of the second half but a double-dip recession remains unlikely, OECD secretary general Angel Gurria said on Friday.

http://imarketnews.com/node/19421

 

[5haretrader]

Despite the fact that I have lightened my holding in AUT I'll still follow the stock very closely. I like the company's future prospects and would not rule out buying back in if this one retraced back a bit.

I have absolutely no clue what was going on in the last 15 minutes of trading today, but it sure as hell wasn't normal. You can be boring about it and say that for everyone that bought, there was also a seller. But if you dwell deeper into it though, AUT has not had 6million shares traded before today, EVER! In the lead up to the ADI takeover bid, the average volume was around 400-500k shares per day. Then, about a week before the on market takeover offer, the average volume spiked heavily into 1.5M share per day mark. AUT has seen a similar thing happen today where the day's volume was so far out of the norm it isn't funny. Something is up...

On the other hand, if this is all just a sub holding switchover, then it will probably just be business as usual on Monday. That said, if things return to normal next week, the stock is quite overbought on the stochastics and I suspect a retrace may be on the cards. Going by AUTs form this tear, it should put in a higher low and continue to rally after that. I see $1.50 by year's end, easily.

 

[WRONG'UN]

Ratio with EKA - update
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[condog]

Nice graph courtesy of Tilly dog from elsewhere. Friday had extremely big volumes, a great sign for AUT.

 

[condog]

Recieved this. Its not AUT specific but its highly related to the interest of all us AUT punters. Its from the "Oil and Gas Investment Bulletin - by Keith Schaeffer"

10x Bigger than the Bakken
The Paris Basin shale oil play in France has the potential to be ten times the size of the Bakken play in North America, and some high profile exploration is beginning soon.
Estimates range from just a few to many tens of billions of barrels of oil in the Paris Basin. Much like the North American shale plays, these formations have been drilled through many times – there are over 1000 wells drilled into the Basin – so exploration risk is low. It’s completion risk – how to best unlock the oil from the rock – that is the main risk.
So there is a lot of data, which makes exploration much less risky. It also means that local residents are used to having oil wells drilled in the region – unlike New York State .

Activity by explorers in this part of France has been growing, and is now hitting a fever pitch. A huge land race is underway, with applications for more than 1.6 million acres pending approval for several companies, including Toreador Resources (TRGL-NASD) in the US, Vermillion Energy (VET.UN-TSX) and Realm Energy (RLM-TSXv) in Canada.
Exploration – real drilling - in the Paris Basin will ramp up this fall. Toreador Resources Corporation is the purest play. In May they announced an exploration deal with Hess Corporation (HES-NYSE) that could be worth as much as $265 million for 50% of Toreador’s 600,000 acres in the play. They spud their first well into the play in Q4 2010. It will be one of the most watched wells in the world.
Canada’s Vermilion Energy has also acquired acreage in the play and begun exploration activities. Vermilion is already recognized as France’s largest oil producer.
Craig Steinke, Executive Chairman for Realm Energy, says “The Paris Basin is arguably the most exciting shale play in Europe right now. We expect to acquire a good-sized position in this play.”
As I wrote about earlier, many of the European shale gas plays are being bought up by the majors, there are intermediate and junior producers in the game, which should keep news flow on the play steady for retail investors.
When this happened in North America, there was huge wealth creation as the juniors and intermediates were small enough that their stocks could benefit from a productive land position.
Like the big North American shale oil plays that enriched investors, the Paris Basin has big reserve potential, good existing well data, and a local population that’s familiar with drilling.
Hopefully, history will repeat itself.
*Keith Schaefer owns Toreador

Disc i condog, hold none of thes and have no interest or relationship other then a reader of this article.

 

[mir]

what a week for AUT this talk of T/O won't have much chance of flying at these prices with management holding 10%, one firm in control of about 35%. one guy who holds 8m+ shares ,you would have more chance pulling his teeth out than selling a share & that goes for many of us.
lets hope for more of the same.

 

[condog]

Looking at those buy sell spreads with $1M+ buys and 158K sells and very spread out sells you got to be thinking next week is looking amazing.

Thats almost a 7:1 Ratio

The traders seem to have been depleted partially at least and we are back imo to the tightly held days similar to early 2010.

Honestly why would you sell???

This is looking like our possible re rating when the big guys decided enough risk has been abated to grab some??

Definitiely a big change in the wind looking at the numbers.
:dance::bananasmi::dance::dance::bananasmi::dance::dance::bananasmi::dance:

 

[Kremmen]

I have to wonder what the story is with the stupid $100 sell order on there. Most brokers wouldn't let you place an order that's that far out of market.

 

[ParleVouFrancois]

Hey Kremmen, perhaps we'll see a "Fat finger" error and a buy order for 10 million and the market price for AUT at 100 dollars. Would be interesting to see the bots reactions to it and the speed ticket the ASX has to issue. 9000% up in a day.

(Obviously not expecting this to happen, but just imagine if it did...)

 

[condog]

I have to wonder what the story is with the stupid $100 sell order on there. Most brokers wouldn't let you place an order that's that far out of market.

I agree, however, how brilliant if some buyer simply presses by x quantity on market. He will be laughing at us fools.

 

[condog]

Im asking everyone a favour here, can you put out the feelers and see if you can find a broker who si selling put options on AUT.

 

[condog]

They say a pictures worth a thousand words.
In this case i think its worth a million.

These rediculous headlines about $40 oil due to high inventories.

Well take a look at this. In fact i dont even think i will spell it ou other then to say China India, and peak oil fears, do you really think a 10% rise in inventories is unwarranted.

from:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/225381-oil-inventories-decline-but-still-well-above-average

Then take a read of this. http://www.countercurrents.org/auzanneau180910.htm
No imo its unlikely to occur this year due to limited US growth, but imo it holds some serious credence. And even the fear and speculation of peak oil is likely to drive energy prices in the forseable future, till transportation alternatives are derived.

 

[jancha]

Janch youd be more then welcome to try and contribute rather then look for misgivings...if my dribble is uninteresting

Didn't say it was dibble condog more speculative on those volumes.
As i said keep it real otherwise it's just ramping.
As it has turned out Aut has jumped in leaps and bounds.
Happy for all holders with that as i was one until recently. bought in at .49c Sold at $1.23 Gone into EKA now as i think better value in the short term for now.
As far as contributing to the AUT thread?
Well anyone can paste information from webs sites or charts ect. but you're doing such a GREAT job i dont need to. Just an observer buddy and keeping it real.
Good luck to all asf members that have followed ADi AUT EKA TXN.
All looking positive.

 

[condog]

We dont have much of a lead from wall street for this morning, crude was down slightly.

ASX has been in an cleaned up the volume , got rid of the $100 offer as well.
Volumes a bit more subdued with 5:1, still representing bullishness. Some traders imo will flood when they see weakness, but imo they are being largely dwindled out by this renewed buying pressure, which lapped up a lot of shares last week.

 

[condog]

9.00 still looking fantastic imo. Buy sell ratio still roughly 5:1, no onslaught of profit takers and still plenty of demand. The run has to end sooner or later, but seems good this morning n face value". I wouldnt be running in to buy just now, but it seems plenty are.

 

[martyfar]

Just general question for anyone with any info (or inkling) .... have they commenced the frac on the KOW ??? and or Luna ???

if the fracs have commenced .... any timeframe on the results ??? if I recall correctly the Kow was at TD 5/8/10 hmmmmm thats more than 6 weeks ago

cheers

 

[condog]

Just general question for anyone with any info (or inkling) .... have they commenced the frac on the KOW ??? and or Luna ???

if the fracs have commenced .... any timeframe on the results ??? if I recall correctly the Kow was at TD 5/8/10 hmmmmm thats more than 6 weeks ago

cheers

Not sure exactly, we should get an update this week. Expecting Kowalick mid to late sept completion, and Luna in early to mid oct. Got to rememebr frac completions are a bit slower and hence the news flow a lot slower since they are trialing the 3 stage fraccing.

Well what a day. I didnt get to see a minute, but a 3c pull back off a new high is staggering level of confidence, given the mini bull run and strong acqusition we have just had.

The buy sell ratios are still good and indicating plenty of underlying demand, relative to hacing such a great run up.

 

[condog]

as an investor in oil, this is an extremely comforting read from Bloomberg.com today

Four months after a European Union- led bailout, Germany’s biggest bond dealers say the worst is over for the region’s most-indebted nations.

Yields on government bonds of Greece, Spain, Ireland and Portugal will fall to within 2.2 percentage points of benchmark German bunds on average in the next two years from 4.61 percentage points last week, according to a Bloomberg News survey of 15 banks that trade directly with Germany’s debt agency. HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe’s largest bank by market value, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Societe Generale SA advise buying securities sold by Greece.

Now it means we primarliy need to keep an eye on US growth and China which last week looked good.

 

[prgudula]

stoxline updated details....as on 21-Sep-2010

Price and moving averages

Price and moving averages has closed above its Short term moving average. Short term moving average is currently above mid-term; AND above long term moving averages. From the relationship between price and moving averages; we can see that: This stock is BULLISH in short-term; and BULLISH in mid-long term.

Bollinger Bands

AUT.AX has closed below upper band by 7.4%. Bollinger Bands are 99.9% wider than normal. The large width of the bands suggest high volatility as compared to AUT.AX's normal range. The bands have been in this wide range for 3 bars. This is a sign that the current trend might continue.

 

[condog]

Still lloks ok with approx 5:1 ratio after removing the tree shaker .

Best sign is the sell side while rising slightly, hasnt filled. Irrespective of what happens price wise, its really imo looking like the old days where we where rediculously tightly held. Bad side is it reduces liquidity, good side is anyone who wants it has to compete like an auction.


Its high in its band, its just snapped back through the top bollinger, normally id say, hey small correction time, but the sell side is singing a different tune. And i think after last weeks gain everyone is more scared of being out of AUT then in it. Im still expecting a minor consolidation.