AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

[Assasin]

Just to throw a curve ball in the debate re diversification of portfolios. What does one do when their caught with 95% Aut 5% others. I'm still very confident in the growth Aut should realise over the next 12 months so my gut feel is to hold every one of them. Brought a good parcel at 30c and then topped up at the Cap-Raising and now just enjoying the ride. Understand that it's in-appropriate to seek advice regarding this on this thread allthough I sure am appreciative of all the information given over the past months.
My dilema is a problem I always wanted to have. Its like the cap-gains tax issue. I can't wait to have a tax problem.

 

[condog]

I think theres some games being played.

Little sell volumes at critical times driving the price down then boom, as soon as good sell volumes come on low. Bang . check out this one a minute ago at 1.25 And look at the volumes already.

Theres some major acquisition happening in my opinion.

 

[condog]

Assasin i sent you a PM.
But this is a dilemma lots will have if they put a fair chunk into AUT.

This is not advice, its a personal opinion.

A financial adviser who you can sue if the advice is bad would definitely tell you to sell and take profit and diversify your portfolio, and thats definitely a good safe option that means you are unlikely to lose money and hence sue him.

I personally am in a similar position. I am not selling for a number of reasons.

1, ive researched and watched this thing to death, and in my opinion it has plenty of growth (with risk attached to China, US, Euro defualts , terorism, drilling accidents, environmetal concerns etc) its not without risk

2. In the areas and stocks i have knowledge of i cant find anywhere better to put the money.

3. Id lover to buy some put options but so far have not found anyone selling them

4. I have a tax problem if i sell before holding 12 months, that would cost me a lot of my profits. So thats a huge risk to my profits, that would be realised immediately upon selling.

Thats my 2c.

ITs important to understand everyone is in a different boat her, with differing personal, financial circumstances and risk tolerances. Definitely do your own research and seek expert, not just paid, but expert advice. Find a rich adviser someone who plays the same game we play and ask them what to do. The best way is to find one by word of mouth, or ring half a dozen and before committing to a consultation, ask them do they trade, how much do they have , what types of stocks etc. If they wont answer, thats ok you dont want them. imo you want someone who knows the game and thinks like a winner, not a 2 bob textbook.

 

[prgudula]

stoxline upgraded the 6 months and 1 year targets

http://au.stoxline.com/q_au.php?symbol=aut&c=ax&Analysis=Analysis

 

[condog]

PRGudula
Screenshot below from above link.
New targets 6month = 1.50 and 12 month 1.75
Whilst I always love targets above current sp I will be dissapointed if those targets are not surpassed well and truly.

On another note what a day for AUT, its time to bring out the :dance::dance::bananasmi::bananasmi::dance::dance::bananasmi::bananasmi:

 

[kyrondgm]

did anyone notice how much volume was traded in the last 15 minutes of the day? is this normal? at about 3.55 EST there was around 2.6m shares traded for the day, and by close 15 minutes later there was 4.8m shares traded with some massive volumes going through...what is going on? my basic knowledge of the sharemarket is that some orders are settled between 4pm-4.10pm EST but to trade so much volume in 15 minutes is truly staggering.

 

[Sdajii]

I'm only speculating, but my guess is that AUT is attracting an increasing amount of attention due to the spectacular results over the last year or so, and since its recent addition to ASX300, lots of people are taking a first look at it, seeing the last year, analysing the current situation, saying "Wow" and wanting to jump in. I think that's the explanation for the recent rally, and today being the end of the week, a large number of people who were hoping for a pull back decided to jump in at their last chance for the week, fearing the possibility of interest growing over the weekend and AUT opening higher on Monday.

Great day today! I watched the depth off and on through the day, twice I started posting here saying something along the lines of "Wow, check out the depth! Looks like we might be in for a run to $1.2x" and before I'd had a chance to post we hit it! A lot of the time there was so little on offer between the current price and $1.30, so it's no surprised we made it to $1.295 and held on to the end

Dancing bananas indeed! :jump: :bananasmi :bananasmi

did anyone notice how much volume was traded in the last 15 minutes of the day? is this normal? at about 3.55 EST there was around 2.6m shares traded for the day, and by close 15 minutes later there was 4.8m shares traded with some massive volumes going through...what is going on? my basic knowledge of the sharemarket is that some orders are settled between 4pm-4.10pm EST but to trade so much volume in 15 minutes is truly staggering.

 

[Kremmen]

What does one do when their caught with 95% Aut 5% others.

Have a big party for all your friends!!

Seriously, here's my take on the general case: The market almost always over-reacts, in both directions. The only way you'll ever know where the top is is to hold until you reach it and sell once it starts to fall.

We are all inclined to reduce risk by taking profits, but it more often than not deprives us of more profits. (One exception: Very illiquid stocks which can fall 50% in a day.)

e.g. Some years ago I bought EWC for 4c/share. I reckoned they were worth 20-40c/share and gradually sold them in late 2006 at 20-60c. The damned things went past $1! Guess what? They are now trading at 40c. Momentum took them way past what they were "worth" and I failed to take advantage of it.

 

[condog]

Have a big party for all your friends!!

Seriously, here's my take on the general case: The market almost always over-reacts, in both directions. The only way you'll ever know where the top is is to hold until you reach it and sell once it starts to fall.

We are all inclined to reduce risk by taking profits, but it more often than not deprives us of more profits. (One exception: Very illiquid stocks which can fall 50% in a day.)

Kremmen wise words indeed. I would add, make sure you take into account your CGT position before selling. For example if you bought in with $20,000 at 30c, you would now have approx 86000 made up of $20000 capital and $66000 capital gain. If your in the 30% and not a trader you would pay 30% CGT on the sale of $66000 assuming you sold the lot. This equates to $19800 CGTax.

Hence the sp would have to fall to 99.3 c for you to rebuy and be ahead.

Sometimes profits disappear, but paying tax is sometimes a way to gaurauntee money dissapears.

 

[Slipperz]

Something is definitely up.

I'm thinking a takeover might be brewing.

Crosstrade went through afterhours at 6.13pm for 1.3 million


Actually more like 1.6 million

 

[condog]

Something is definitely up.

I'm thinking a takeover might be brewing.

Crosstrade went through afterhours at 6.13pm for 1.3 million


Actually more like 1.6 million

View attachment 38910

My god i hope your wrong, theres way too much growth left in this to let some predator , take a cheap swipe at it. . 1.3 million imo is more like a fund. But coupled with the huge volume of the last week is big volume. Certainly not enough for a take over.

Theres definitely some stiff buying pressure. who ever they have been doing preso's to its working. It was a great presentation, there best yet, imo instilling huge confidence in what they are up to.

What a fantastic result today was for all the AUT loyal holders. To the rest, sucked in, lol, only kidding.

 

[BrightGreenGlow]

Awww why the heck did I sell out at 1.22 Sorry guys but fingers crossed there is some profit taking next week so a certain someone can jump back in!

 

[ParleVouFrancois]

Fingers crossed it goes down to your purchase price John, then soars all the way back to where it is now, and continues normally. :

 

[condog]

Awww why the heck did I sell out at 1.22 Sorry guys but fingers crossed there is some profit taking next week so a certain someone can jump back in!

John this is not advice, merely opinion. But if i was in your situation i wouldnt focus on what price i sold at. Id simply look for a pull back that presented as value and jump in. You do your own thing and seek advice, but its silly to focus on price imo.

Normally id say hey this is way overbought but me thiks we have possibly some new found demand and some new found resiliance to selling by holders and traders.

 

[condog]

MUMBAI (Commodity Online): India’s largest private sector energy firm, Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) (BOM:500325), has started talks for expanding its presence in the US shale gas fields.

The company is reported to be advanced with Chesapeake Energy Corp to take stake in Eagle Ford shale gas field in Texas.

Reliance has already invested $3.44 billion (Rs.15,900 crore) in the past five months to purchase three shale gas fields that have the potential to release 25.4 trillion cu. ft (tcf) of natural gas trapped in rock.

According to the media reports, the financial terms of the deal have not yet been finalised and Reliance may form a joint venture with Chesapeake to develop the asset.

On successful closing of the deal, this will be Reliance’s fourth shale field buy.

http://www.commodityonline.com/comm...ale-gas-acquisition-2010-09-17-31829-3-1.html

Murphy Oil Enters Pact with Kainaiwa Resources for N. American Resource Acreage

Murphy Oil Corp. announced that its subsidiary, Murphy Oil Company, has entered into an agreement with Kainaiwa Resources, Inc., a corporation owned by the Blood Tribe First Nation to acquire 202 sections (129,280 acres) of prospective oil and gas properties located within the Blood Tribe Reserve in southern Alberta.

In a release on Sept. 9, Murphy Oil said the lease agreement will give it drilling rights on the property for five years with a minimum of 16 wells to be drilled during this time.

David Wood, Murphy Oil Corp. President and Chief Executive Officer, said: "We are very pleased to add a fourth resource play in North America to complement our existing acreage in Seal Lake, Montney and Eagle Ford."

http://www.tradingmarkets.com/news/...-for-n-american-resource-acreage-1175011.html

Insurance Sales Post First Gain Since 2007 on Higher Rates, U.S. Recovery
By Kelly Bit - Sep 17, 2010
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...-since-2007-on-higher-rates-u-s-recovery.html

Banks Are Impeding U.S. Recovery
Oxford Analytica, 09.17.10, 06:00 AM EDT

http://www.forbes.com/2010/09/16/re...-oxford-analytica.html?boxes=Homepagelighttop

Peak oil and climate must be tackled in tandem
Sydney Morning Herald - ‎21 hours ago‎
Acting on the looming oil crisis could give politicians the political cover they need to move on global warming. PEAK oil and climate change are on parallel ... Respected Oil Analyst Forecasts Peak Oil by 2017
OilPrice.com - Robert Rapier - ‎Sep 15, 2010‎
His prediction is not so remarkable, as is where he made his prediction. The prediction was in Forbes, which has often scoffed at the notion of a near-term ...


http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Respected-Oil-Analyst-Forecasts-Peak-Oil-by-2017.html

Goldman’s Cohen Says Double Dip Recession ‘Extremely Unlikely’
September 16, 2010, 5:59 PM EDT
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e-mail this story print this story add to Business Exchange By Inyoung Hwang

Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Abby Joseph Cohen of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said today that the U.S. economy will experience a period of slow growth, not another recession.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...double-dip-recession-extremely-unlikely-.html

 

[condog]

I'm only speculating, but my guess is that AUT is attracting an increasing amount of attention due to the spectacular results over the last year or so, and since its recent addition to ASX300, lots of people are taking a first look at it, seeing the last year, analysing the current situation, saying "Wow" and wanting to jump in. I think that's the explanation for the recent rally, and today being the end of the week, a large number of people who were hoping for a pull back decided to jump in at their last chance for the week, fearing the possibility of interest growing over the weekend and AUT opening higher on Monday.

Great day today! I watched the depth off and on through the day, twice I started posting here saying something along the lines of "Wow, check out the depth! Looks like we might be in for a run to $1.2x" and before I'd had a chance to post we hit it! A lot of the time there was so little on offer between the current price and $1.30, so it's no surprised we made it to $1.295 and held on to the end

Dancing bananas indeed! :jump: :bananasmi :bananasmi

Damn right Sadjii, it was demand demand demand, and other then a few peanuts selling for whatever reason, there was incredible discipline from all holders. Im sure we will have our inevitable pullbacks, but if all else stays roughly equal this thing has many more legs imo. Definitely a day for dancing banannas

 

[5haretrader]

What an interesting day. On the back of this week's impressive gains, I was planning to take some profits this afternoon. Just minutes after my order went through at $1.29, things went absolute bananas with AUT. I smell something is up here. On HotCopper i thought it could be a sub holder moving shares around, but on second thoughts there could be a sneaky ADI-like lowball offer on the cards here. I hope not for holders sake because this stock is a gem.

Monday will be interesting, to say the least!!

 

[condog]

What an interesting day. On the back of this week's impressive gains, I was planning to take some profits this afternoon. Just minutes after my order went through at $1.29, things went absolute bananas with AUT. I smell something is up here. On HotCopper i thought it could be a sub holder moving shares around, but on second thoughts there could be a sneaky ADI-like lowball offer on the cards here. I hope not for holders sake because this stock is a gem.

Monday will be interesting, to say the least!!

I hope not. I personally think 1.3 million is big enought to be a fund, but even combined with the volumes of all this week its not enough for a TO, thank god. A significna tholder announcment would have had to ahave been issued and it hasnt.

I realistically think its a combination of ASX300 funds and renewed intrest from whoever they have been presenting to this week.

Combine that with the gradual exit of traders post CR and post SPP and we now are back to limmited slleres and heards of buyers like the good old days of pre CR.

 

[condog]

What will the next few months bring ???

We know the target is between 1.32 and 1.53, right now its looking like exceeding that. I have it pegged at 1.59.

What will the future bring. Critics have bagged it since 50 odd cents. Its proved them wrong. 1.50 is looking closer and closer and easier every single week imo.

We have to be getting very close to a Hartleys upgrade, and a Euroz upgrade can only be a matter of a week or two away imo. Theres been a lot happened in terms of de risking and improving technology since they bought those targets out several months ago.

Incidentily todays volume was over 5 million a new record by double i think.

Look at the buy sell imbalance for monday. Certainly a tight holding again by the looks of it.



Futures up in early trade.

 

[condog]

German Military Not Sticking Its Head in the Sand

To start off, for those of you unfamiliar with the term, here is a concise explanation of peak oil from Investopedia:

Because oil is a non-replenishing resource, there is a limit to how much the world can extract and refine. Peak oil is the day that oil production reaches a maximum and will subsequently begin to decline until full depletion is ultimately reached.

Why is Peak Oil a Big Deal?

The reason peak oil is such a big deal, of course, is that society as it is built today relies on oil for many of its basic needs, as well as a great number of its non-essentials. Even though 71% of oil use is for transportation in the US, oil is also used in the production of fertilizers, shoes, some medicines, carpets and rugs, paint, detergent, canned food, makeup, nail polish, candles, lipstick, plastic, and more.

Oil is actually used, either directly or indirectly, in 95% of our industrial goods.

Governments generally avoid bringing this term up, probably because of the great threats we face from peak oil and the potential public backlash to curtailing our use of oil. This makes the simple existence of this German military think tank’s new report a bit shocking, even before you read the dramatic potential future the report paints.

The think tank that conducted the report is the Future Analysis department of the Bundeswehr Transformation Center, “a think tank tasked with fixing a direction for the German military,” according to SPIEGEL ONLINE.

The military report doesn’t try to sugar-coat the scale of the issues, and is actually quite dramatic in discussing them. As Stefan Schultz of SPIEGEL ONLINE writes:

The team of authors, led by Lieutenant Colonel Thomas Will, uses sometimes-dramatic language to depict the consequences of an irreversible depletion of raw materials. It warns of shifts in the global balance of power, of the formation of new relationships based on interdependency, of a decline in importance of the western industrial nations, of the “total collapse of the markets” and of serious political and economic crises.

The report has been confirmed as authentic, but, apparently, it isn’t finished or approved for public sharing yet, and it is doubtful that the German military or German government will release it without cutting and editing some of the dramatic statements and predictions.

The study, whose authenticity was confirmed to SPIEGEL ONLINE by sources in government circles, was not meant for publication. The document is said to be in draft stage and to consist solely of scientific opinion, which has not yet been edited by the Defense Ministry and other government bodies.

The lead author, Will, has declined to comment on the study. It remains doubtful that either the Bundeswehr or the German government would have consented to publish the document in its current form. But the study does show how intensively the German government has engaged with the question of peak oil.

Peak oil concern is sneaking out of the back rooms of other world-leading governments as well. The UK Energy Minister held a “Peak Oil Summit” earlier this year, for example. But this report may contain the most forthcoming statements of any major government on the topic and risks of peak oil.

Main Findings of Leaked Peak Oil Report

The report concluded that there is “some probability that peak oil will occur around the year 2010 and that the impact on security is expected to be felt 15 to 30 years later.” This fits the predictions of other scientists’ studying peak oil, many of whom say that peak oil has already passed or will do so within year.

Some of the problems expected to result from peak oil include:

•Oil-rich countries, some of which are quite unstable and unfriendly to the United States, will gain more and more international power (for a relatively short time);
•Market failures are expected to occur and economies could even collapse;
•Due to the highly interlinked nature of the global economy and global society today, these crises wherever they occur would create a strong ripple effect around the world — it is unlikely that any nation would be unaffected by such crises.
•The German report even brings up the possibility that democracy itself will collapse.
With “Peak Coal” also perhaps happening as early as 2025, these concerns only get amplified if we don’t make a quick transformation to a clean energy economy.

For more information from the report and further discussion on this topic, check out SPIEGEL ONLINE story, “‘Peak Oil’ and the German Government: Military Study Warns of a Potentially Drastic Oil Crisis.”

Peak oil” is a term that has hardly reached into the mainstream media. Yet, a new leaked report by a German military think tank says world-changing peak oil may be this year.



http://cleantechnica.com/2010/09/17/peak-oil-this-year-leaked-german-military-report-says/2/